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2013 Arbitration

Posted: 01/07/2013 8:39 AM

2013 Arbitration 


I expect Byrnes is currently occupied with setting up for the negotiations involving the eight arbitration eligible Padres.  Key dates:

Jan 18.......dollars exchanged
Feb 4 - 20.......hearings (if necessary)

If as usual, the Padres will want to settle on contracts before going to hearings.  Per MLBTradeRumors' model, here are the eight players, the model estimate result, and control years remain (potentially leading to a multi-year contract discussion for some).

Headley..........$8.3MM.....2 control years
Richard...........$5.0MM.....2 control years
Volquez...........$4.6MM.....1 control year
Gregerson.......$3.2MM.....2 control years
Venable..........$2.5MM.....3 control years
Cabrera..........$1.2MM.....4 control years (super two?)
Thatcher.........$1.1MM.....2 control years
Baker.............$0.9MM.....2 control years

That is a lot of negotiation over the next month.  In today's player market.....all seem good value at those prices.  This may be the window where Byrnes does the heavy lifting on extending Headley. For some of the others, it may be of interest to buy out the arbitration years for an option on one FA year.  Does add certainty to the payroll (allowing for other decisions) and could add to the trade value into next season....also would make this time next year simpler.
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Posted: 01/07/2013 8:50 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


I would lock up Richard for sure.
While certainly not an Ace,he is a solid #3-4 who can handle the bat and hold runners.
He takes the ball every fifth day and gives the team a chance.He's pretty consistent.
With all the injuries and most of the arms we are depending on are unproven....we need Richard.
Volquez?........all depends on the cost.
I had hoped BB and Bals would be able to get more consistent strikes out of this guy.
He can be a great pitcher when he's around the plate.....but those other days?.....frustrating!banghead
It all depends on the cost.......and how Volquez pitches this year IMO.





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Posted: 01/09/2013 1:38 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



MrPadre19 wrote: I would lock up Richard for sure.
While certainly not an Ace,he is a solid #3-4 who can handle the bat and hold runners.
He takes the ball every fifth day and gives the team a chance.He's pretty consistent.
With all the injuries and most of the arms we are depending on are unproven....we need Richard.
Volquez?........all depends on the cost.
I had hoped BB and Bals would be able to get more consistent strikes out of this guy.
He can be a great pitcher when he's around the plate.....but those other days?.....frustrating!banghead
It all depends on the cost.......and how Volquez pitches this year IMO.
I think Volquez is a little bit more valuable than most think. I realize if you look at his stats he looks like a below average pitcher pretty much just because of his walks but it seems to me like he pitches really well in the slight majority of his starts and then has a few starts or a couple in a row in which he flames out and gives up a ridiculous amount of runs. Personally, I'm okay with a pitcher who pitches great in 75% of the games they start and then tanks the other 25%. I realize it sounds odd but hear me out. 

A great pitchers ERA would hover around 3 in my opinion, an ace just a smidge better, and Edinson Volquez had an ERA below 3.33 in 21 of his 32 starts last season (65%, which isn't bad). In those 21 starts he pitched 136 innings and gave up 34 runs for a 2.25 ERA! Those are amazing numbers, and better than any pitcher in the league. Of course, in the other 11 starts he pitched 46 innings and gave up 50 runs for over a 9 ERA. OUCH. So, he's either spot on and pitching as one of the best pitchers in the league, or he's doing his best Kip Wells impersonation. In other words, 65% of the time when you give Volquez the ball he gives your team a HUGE percent chance to win, and the other starts, you basically lose. A league average pitcher will hover around 50% win rate, and though they won't vary as much per start, 65% is still higher than 50%, and significantly so in regards to baseball. Given, you're going to lose some of the games he pitches phenomenally (although with those numbers, not very often) and you're going to win some of the games he pitches horribly (although with those numbers, not very often).

But personally I would rather have a pitcher who looks like a league average hurler number wise at the end of the year who pitches brilliantly 65% of the time and horribly the rest; than a guy who has stayed average all year. Especially with an offense like the Padres who don't have as much firepower to stay in close games. So even though when you put his numbers alltogether at the end of the year he looks quite meh, it's extremely likely that over the course of a year he actually gives your team a better chance to win than a more average hurler. 

If Volquez could just keep those walks down...

Last edited 01/09/2013 1:41 AM by ta1nted

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Posted: 01/09/2013 7:05 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



ta1nted wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: I would lock up Richard for sure.
While certainly not an Ace,he is a solid #3-4 who can handle the bat and hold runners.
He takes the ball every fifth day and gives the team a chance.He's pretty consistent.
With all the injuries and most of the arms we are depending on are unproven....we need Richard.
Volquez?........all depends on the cost.
I had hoped BB and Bals would be able to get more consistent strikes out of this guy.
He can be a great pitcher when he's around the plate.....but those other days?.....frustrating!banghead
It all depends on the cost.......and how Volquez pitches this year IMO.
I think Volquez is a little bit more valuable than most think. I realize if you look at his stats he looks like a below average pitcher pretty much just because of his walks but it seems to me like he pitches really well in the slight majority of his starts and then has a few starts or a couple in a row in which he flames out and gives up a ridiculous amount of runs. Personally, I'm okay with a pitcher who pitches great in 75% of the games they start and then tanks the other 25%. I realize it sounds odd but hear me out. 

A great pitchers ERA would hover around 3 in my opinion, an ace just a smidge better, and Edinson Volquez had an ERA below 3.33 in 21 of his 32 starts last season (65%, which isn't bad). In those 21 starts he pitched 136 innings and gave up 34 runs for a 2.25 ERA! Those are amazing numbers, and better than any pitcher in the league. Of course, in the other 11 starts he pitched 46 innings and gave up 50 runs for over a 9 ERA. OUCH. So, he's either spot on and pitching as one of the best pitchers in the league, or he's doing his best Kip Wells impersonation. In other words, 65% of the time when you give Volquez the ball he gives your team a HUGE percent chance to win, and the other starts, you basically lose. A league average pitcher will hover around 50% win rate, and though they won't vary as much per start, 65% is still higher than 50%, and significantly so in regards to baseball. Given, you're going to lose some of the games he pitches phenomenally (although with those numbers, not very often) and you're going to win some of the games he pitches horribly (although with those numbers, not very often).

But personally I would rather have a pitcher who looks like a league average hurler number wise at the end of the year who pitches brilliantly 65% of the time and horribly the rest; than a guy who has stayed average all year. Especially with an offense like the Padres who don't have as much firepower to stay in close games. So even though when you put his numbers alltogether at the end of the year he looks quite meh, it's extremely likely that over the course of a year he actually gives your team a better chance to win than a more average hurler. 

If Volquez could just keep those walks down...
Well,if you could identify those 35% games before he completely blows up,and pull him in the 3rd and put the long man in,maybe we could salvage some of those games and also keep his ERA down?
He seems to implode all of a sudden on those bad days.
He's rolling right along and then suddenly loses the strike zone and walks 3 or 4 in an inning.
It's hard for BB to go out there in the 3rd inning,after two straight BB's and pull him,but given his history it might be the best way to assure a chance to win.
Won't happen though....Edinson would mutiny!





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Posted: 01/09/2013 7:37 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


In this market, having Volquez and Richard in the $5MM range is a good deal.  Took a look at their 2012 performance in comparison to other NL SP....basically how did they perform versus the real alternatives...not just a theoretical standard.  With 16 NL teams (and considering only SP that pitched over 160 innings):

Volquez was: 34th in innings; 37th in ERA; and 42 in WAR.
Richard was: 4th in innings; 33rd in ERA; and 46th in WAR.

That basically puts them both solidly in the #3 spot in the rotations (#33 - #48) based on actual performance....and $5MM is a value price for that performance.  Of course, it might be a good idea to find someone that might fit the the #1 or #2 role....just not that easy. Hopefully, Luebke will return and hit that level...we will see about the prospects.
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Posted: 01/09/2013 8:17 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: In this market, having Volquez and Richard in the $5MM range is a good deal.  Took a look at their 2012 performance in comparison to other NL SP....basically how did they perform versus the real alternatives...not just a theoretical standard.  With 16 NL teams (and considering only SP that pitched over 160 innings):

Volquez was: 34th in innings; 37th in ERA; and 42 in WAR.
Richard was: 4th in innings; 33rd in ERA; and 46th in WAR.

That basically puts them both solidly in the #3 spot in the rotations (#33 - #48) based on actual performance....and $5MM is a value price for that performance.  Of course, it might be a good idea to find someone that might fit the the #1 or #2 role....just not that easy. Hopefully, Luebke will return and hit that level...we will see about the prospects.

You make a very good case for value with Richard, he might very well be sought after by other teams.  I'm thinking that Miami would want Richard in a potential trade for Stanton.  Would you include Richard?  Not sure that I would, however; if Lubeki is the real deal, the trade might be viable. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

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Posted: 01/09/2013 9:21 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Under the right circumstances, yes.....meaning the Padres could keep a more appealing player out of the deal.  Let's say the teams are debating a package for Stanton that included Gyorko, Liriano, Portillo, Mikolas, and Venable.  If Miami was willing to take Richard over Gyorko or Lirano...yes.  If Miami wanted Richard over Portillo or Mikolas, or Venable...no.

Even though I like Richard under control for two years at a fair price....his future with the Padres beyond 2014 is limited given the wave of prospects (who are cheaper) that will be here by 2015.  If he tips the tide on getting Stanton (or some other high profile player) and / or avoids dealing a blue-chip prospect......got to seriously consider the long term.
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Posted: 01/15/2013 7:03 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Per today's SDUT, Byrnes thinks he can work out contracts with at least half of arbitration eligible players before Friday's date to exchange arbitration numbers.  Keep in mind a deal can be struck anytime before the actual hearing.
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Posted: 01/16/2013 10:23 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Venable and Padres come to terms for $2.675MM

Link

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Posted: 01/18/2013 6:31 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Thatcher.....$1.350MM
Cabrera.....$1.275MM

So far Blanks, Venable, Thatcher, and Cabrera have signed for amounts slightly HIGHER than the MLTradeRumors model suggested.
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Posted: 01/18/2013 4:03 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Volquez and Baker sign......terms not disclosed yet.

Gregerson, Richard, and Headley still unsigned.

Apparently Headley and the Padres exchanged arbitration figures......Padres offered $7.1MM...Headley asked for $10.3.  Considering MLTradeRumors' model suggested $8.3MM as the logical settlement point....seems some negotiation still needs to be done....maybe split the difference at $8.7MM...higher than the model but that seems to be the trend with the Padres this year.  Since an arbitration decision is one or the other...not a third amount...I would think going to arbitration would be more risky for Headley than the Padres and he may end up at the $7.1MM.  Should be interesting to follow.
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Posted: 01/18/2013 7:24 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Latos asking Reds for 4.7.....Padres offering Richard $4.9





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Posted: 01/19/2013 6:13 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



MrPadre19 wrote: Latos asking Reds for 4.7.....Padres offering Richard $4.9
Heard a report (unconfirmed) that Volquez signed for $5.75MM....quite a bit higher than expected.  Baker apparently is under $1MM.

One thing to remember is that arbitration considers service time as a significant factor in granting decisions (as a result settled contracts reflect the same)...less time / less money.  So Latos has 3 years service time, Richard has 4 years, and Volquez has 5 years which makes a direct production / pay comparison difficult.  That has to wait until FA.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 6:50 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


Per the SDUT this a.m.:

Volquez signed for $5.725MM
Baker signed for $930K

Team / Player arbitration figures submitted:

Headley..........$7.075MM / $10.3MM
Richard...........$4.905MM / $5.55MM
Gregerson.......$2.875MM / $3.75MM
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Posted: 01/19/2013 8:18 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 




---------------------------------------------
--- FENN68 wrote:


MrPadre19 wrote: Latos asking Reds for 4.7.....Padres offering Richard $4.9
Heard a report (unconfirmed) that Volquez signed for $5.75MM....quite a bit higher than expected.  Baker apparently is under $1MM.

One thing to remember is that arbitration considers service time as a significant factor in granting decisions (as a result settled contracts reflect the same)...less time / less money.  So Latos has 3 years service time, Richard has 4 years, and Volquez has 5 years which makes a direct production / pay comparison difficult.  That has to wait until FA.

---------------------------------------------

Yeah......I know.
Still interesting.





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Posted: 01/19/2013 11:33 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


That would be quite a hefty raise for Headley! eek  Hope they can find some middle ground before going into arbitration. 

Surprised that Volquez got nearly $6M, but it's all about service time with these figures, not really performance.  He could be a nice trade piece if he's made to be expendable by the young pitchers coming into the rotation.
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Posted: 01/20/2013 11:49 AM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



FENN68 wrote: Per the SDUT this a.m.:

Volquez signed for $5.725MM
Baker signed for $930K

Team / Player arbitration figures submitted:

Headley..........$7.075MM / $10.3MM
Richard...........$4.905MM / $5.55MM
Gregerson.......$2.875MM / $3.75MM
Pads seem likely to settle easily there with Richard.  Headley's figure seems absurd considering he hit 4 HR the year before, and never more than 12?  But both sides may be calculating the midpoint & probably will settle rather than risk losing 1.6 MM +/- in arb.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Pads stand firm on Gregerson all the way to arb & see what happens.  That is a big spread % wise.  It might be worth it to the team to try to "save" the entire difference.
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Posted: 01/20/2013 1:16 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: Per the SDUT this a.m.:

Volquez signed for $5.725MM
Baker signed for $930K

Team / Player arbitration figures submitted:

Headley..........$7.075MM / $10.3MM
Richard...........$4.905MM / $5.55MM
Gregerson.......$2.875MM / $3.75MM
Pads seem likely to settle easily there with Richard.  Headley's figure seems absurd considering he hit 4 HR the year before, and never more than 12?  But both sides may be calculating the midpoint & probably will settle rather than risk losing 1.6 MM +/- in arb.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Pads stand firm on Gregerson all the way to arb & see what happens.  That is a big spread % wise.  It might be worth it to the team to try to "save" the entire difference.
While service time might be the biggest $$ maker, the next biggest is their production the previous year.  One "breakout" year could make all the difference.  That being said, the Padres will probably offer slightly over 8 and see if they agree.  If not I wouldnt be shocked to see them take the argument to the hearing.  Headley's lack of productivity might be enough to have the judge rule in favor of the Padres.
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Posted: 01/20/2013 7:34 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 



BenDavey wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
FENN68 wrote: Per the SDUT this a.m.:

Volquez signed for $5.725MM
Baker signed for $930K

Team / Player arbitration figures submitted:

Headley..........$7.075MM / $10.3MM
Richard...........$4.905MM / $5.55MM
Gregerson.......$2.875MM / $3.75MM
Pads seem likely to settle easily there with Richard.  Headley's figure seems absurd considering he hit 4 HR the year before, and never more than 12?  But both sides may be calculating the midpoint & probably will settle rather than risk losing 1.6 MM +/- in arb.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Pads stand firm on Gregerson all the way to arb & see what happens.  That is a big spread % wise.  It might be worth it to the team to try to "save" the entire difference.
While service time might be the biggest $$ maker, the next biggest is their production the previous year.  One "breakout" year could make all the difference.  That being said, the Padres will probably offer slightly over 8 and see if they agree.  If not I wouldnt be shocked to see them take the argument to the hearing.  Headley's lack of productivity might be enough to have the judge rule in favor of the Padres.
Good point.  Pads definitely have more to lose than Headley does.   I think I could live with a little over 7 Mill...
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Posted: 01/20/2013 9:34 PM

Re: 2013 Arbitration 


When it comes to arbitration, besides service time, counting numbers are really the most important in terms of determining monetary value (right or not), so Headley coming off a year in which he leads the national league in RBIs and has over 30 homers has a very strong case for the 10+ mil he is asking for. Regardless of what he did before last season, considering the ridiculous figures that are being thrown around to free agents, many of which are less caliber a player than Headley, as well as factoring in the lack of big time third basemen in the league right now, I think Headley's salary will be much closer towards what he's asking for as opposed to the Padres.

Last edited 01/20/2013 9:36 PM by Godzillaismylife

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