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Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5?

  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1346 posts this site

Posted: 11/24/2012 1:38 PM

Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


I had Portillo as a lock (#1), Ascencio as highly likely (#2) to protect.
But then I had Freiman (#3) as likely & Galvez (#4) & Hagerty (#5) as possible.
I had Jaff Decker next (#6) as unlikely to protect, but am glad they did.

Teams picking in Rule 5 are usually looking for Relievers or utility guys.  Harder for teams to keep 1B/OF types or Catchers.  I had Hagerty that high based on the depth we would lose if does get taken, but his production didn't warrant protection.  Hopefully other teams will agree.

I feel like there is some kind of weird double standard that downplays how fantastic Freiman's production in AA was, but lauds someone else like Rincon that I'm NOT high on at all.  May lose him, but Pads thinking probably was with Blanks, Freiman, Cody Decker, AND Clark can absorb a loss there.

Besides Galvez, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone take Beamer Weems.  Pads were desparate for a player like that to fill out 25-man roster a few years ago.

Most likely reliever to get picked I think is Jeff Ibarra simply b/c he's a lefty.  Other possibles are Jeremy McBryde and Jerry Sullivan.  None would be a significant loss.

Bottom line:  I would expect Padres to lose 1 or 2 players, but none should be a crippling loss.
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Posted: 11/24/2012 3:39 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


My gut reaction is they will not lose anyone.  Outside chance someone gets selected (doubt it) but most likely would be offered back in ST...if the Padres prefer to keep the $50,000 and don't take him back...I guess that is not losing him.  Actually in some cases they may want a team to take certain players thinking the $50,000 is more valuable than the player.

Actually the one player that never seems to be mentioned that may have the best chance of being selected...and kept...is Jorge Reyes (only 24), RHP at Tucson. Not good stats as a SP in AAA last year (but good as a RP to finish the season) and if any organization watched him in AA in 2011....especially as a RP...might see value in his ability to generate ground balls and could be legitimately ML ready.  Think Cubs (Hoyer et al know him)...Diamondbacks (Towers knows him and loves finding RP out of nowhere)...Mets (Alderson et. al. were around when the Padres drafted him I believe).

As for position players......once they protected Jaff Decker that told me that the others are non-prospects.  Over 2011-12 Decker hit .224 in 643 AA ABs. Even going back to 2010 he only hit .262 in the Cal League.  His return to real prospect status is a very long shot...was he really at risk of being taken AND KEPT?

RP are always wild cards given what certain scouts see...that one could surprise.
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Posted: 11/24/2012 4:36 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



brianmcon wrote: I had Portillo as a lock (#1), Ascencio as highly likely (#2) to protect.
But then I had Freiman (#3) as likely & Galvez (#4) & Hagerty (#5) as possible.
I had Jaff Decker next (#6) as unlikely to protect, but am glad they did.

Teams picking in Rule 5 are usually looking for Relievers or utility guys.  Harder for teams to keep 1B/OF types or Catchers.  I had Hagerty that high based on the depth we would lose if does get taken, but his production didn't warrant protection.  Hopefully other teams will agree.

I feel like there is some kind of weird double standard that downplays how fantastic Freiman's production in AA was, but lauds someone else like Rincon that I'm NOT high on at all.  May lose him, but Pads thinking probably was with Blanks, Freiman, Cody Decker, AND Clark can absorb a loss there.

Besides Galvez, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone take Beamer Weems.  Pads were desparate for a player like that to fill out 25-man roster a few years ago.

Most likely reliever to get picked I think is Jeff Ibarra simply b/c he's a lefty.  Other possibles are Jeremy McBryde and Jerry Sullivan.  None would be a significant loss.

Bottom line:  I would expect Padres to lose 1 or 2 players, but none should be a crippling loss.

I would not be surprised at all if Jerry Sullivan was taken in the rule 5 draft. He had an incredible finish to his season after developing the splitter as an swing/miss pitch.  He struck out 8 batters in a row near the end of the season and he filled in nicely for Quackenbush while he was briefly rested leading up to the AFL.  There was a lot of interest in him just before the trade deadline...  So...we'll see.

 

-----------------------–-----------------------------------------------------------------------Prospect I'm championing: Jerry Sullivan
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Posted: 11/24/2012 7:14 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 




---------------------------------------------
--- 27TKO wrote:


brianmcon wrote: I had Portillo as a lock (#1), Ascencio as highly likely (#2) to protect.
But then I had Freiman (#3) as likely & Galvez (#4) & Hagerty (#5) as possible.
I had Jaff Decker next (#6) as unlikely to protect, but am glad they did.

Teams picking in Rule 5 are usually looking for Relievers or utility guys.  Harder for teams to keep 1B/OF types or Catchers.  I had Hagerty that high based on the depth we would lose if does get taken, but his production didn't warrant protection.  Hopefully other teams will agree.

I feel like there is some kind of weird double standard that downplays how fantastic Freiman's production in AA was, but lauds someone else like Rincon that I'm NOT high on at all.  May lose him, but Pads thinking probably was with Blanks, Freiman, Cody Decker, AND Clark can absorb a loss there.

Besides Galvez, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone take Beamer Weems.  Pads were desparate for a player like that to fill out 25-man roster a few years ago.

Most likely reliever to get picked I think is Jeff Ibarra simply b/c he's a lefty.  Other possibles are Jeremy McBryde and Jerry Sullivan.  None would be a significant loss.

Bottom line:  I would expect Padres to lose 1 or 2 players, but none should be a crippling loss.

I would not be surprised at all if Jerry Sullivan was taken in the rule 5 draft. He had an incredible finish to his season after developing the splitter as an swing/miss pitch.  He struck out 8 batters in a row near the end of the season and he filled in nicely for Quackenbush while he was briefly rested leading up to the AFL.  There was a lot of interest in him just before the trade deadline...  So...we'll see.

---------------------------------------------

Sullivan was drafted in '09...... Is he eligible to be selected in Rule 5?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 11/24/2012 7:44 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



MrPadre19 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- 27TKO wrote:


brianmcon wrote: I had Portillo as a lock (#1), Ascencio as highly likely (#2) to protect.
But then I had Freiman (#3) as likely & Galvez (#4) & Hagerty (#5) as possible.
I had Jaff Decker next (#6) as unlikely to protect, but am glad they did.

Teams picking in Rule 5 are usually looking for Relievers or utility guys.  Harder for teams to keep 1B/OF types or Catchers.  I had Hagerty that high based on the depth we would lose if does get taken, but his production didn't warrant protection.  Hopefully other teams will agree.

I feel like there is some kind of weird double standard that downplays how fantastic Freiman's production in AA was, but lauds someone else like Rincon that I'm NOT high on at all.  May lose him, but Pads thinking probably was with Blanks, Freiman, Cody Decker, AND Clark can absorb a loss there.

Besides Galvez, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone take Beamer Weems.  Pads were desparate for a player like that to fill out 25-man roster a few years ago.

Most likely reliever to get picked I think is Jeff Ibarra simply b/c he's a lefty.  Other possibles are Jeremy McBryde and Jerry Sullivan.  None would be a significant loss.

Bottom line:  I would expect Padres to lose 1 or 2 players, but none should be a crippling loss.

I would not be surprised at all if Jerry Sullivan was taken in the rule 5 draft. He had an incredible finish to his season after developing the splitter as an swing/miss pitch.  He struck out 8 batters in a row near the end of the season and he filled in nicely for Quackenbush while he was briefly rested leading up to the AFL.  There was a lot of interest in him just before the trade deadline...  So...we'll see.

---------------------------------------------

Sullivan was drafted in '09...... Is he eligible to be selected in Rule 5?

Yes he is...

 

-----------------------–-----------------------------------------------------------------------Prospect I'm championing: Jerry Sullivan
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
  • 1346 posts this site

Posted: 11/24/2012 9:57 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



FENN68 wrote: My gut reaction is they will not lose anyone.  Outside chance someone gets selected (doubt it) but most likely would be offered back in ST...if the Padres prefer to keep the $50,000 and don't take him back...I guess that is not losing him.  Actually in some cases they may want a team to take certain players thinking the $50,000 is more valuable than the player.

Actually the one player that never seems to be mentioned that may have the best chance of being selected...and kept...is Jorge Reyes (only 24), RHP at Tucson. Not good stats as a SP in AAA last year (but good as a RP to finish the season) and if any organization watched him in AA in 2011....especially as a RP...might see value in his ability to generate ground balls and could be legitimately ML ready.  Think Cubs (Hoyer et al know him)...Diamondbacks (Towers knows him and loves finding RP out of nowhere)...Mets (Alderson et. al. were around when the Padres drafted him I believe).

As for position players......once they protected Jaff Decker that told me that the others are non-prospects.  Over 2011-12 Decker hit .224 in 643 AA ABs. Even going back to 2010 he only hit .262 in the Cal League.  His return to real prospect status is a very long shot...was he really at risk of being taken AND KEPT?

RP are always wild cards given what certain scouts see...that one could surprise.
I agree Reyes is a possibility if someone sees him succeeding as a reliever...

Boy, when you put up Decker's #'s they REALLY look bad; I thought he had missed more time with the injuries.  I think there is still an upside there others not protected don't have, but this is obviously his make or break year.  I completely agree there's no way he would have been selected AND kept all year, where that might be a risk with some others.

I am not as sold on Alonso as many including the Padres are.  If a 1B doesn't hit a lot of HR, he REALLY has to hit for average & doubles.  Just not as much room for dropoff in performance.   I guess Pads feel comfortable with their depth there.  Valdez probably saved his spot with a good AFL showing plus the trade of Parrino.  I am not at all a fan of Rincon either.  Hope he keeps improving, but hard to overcome being that much of a defensive liability.  Finally, I was surprised they kept Oramas on 40, but maybe have to with injury?

If we're one of the deepest systems, logic holds that we should be one losing players in Rule 5.  It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 5:24 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


I actually thought 39 doubles were alot for a Rookie?
You didn't?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 11/25/2012 9:55 AM

RE: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


Yea I thought Alonso did well for a rookie which is why, if im not mistaken, he was 6th in rookie of the year votes. He is only going to improve at the position which is why I am sold on him at this point in time
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Posted: 11/25/2012 10:52 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 11/26/2012 7:37 PM

RE: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



dustymills wrote: Yea I thought Alonso did well for a rookie which is why, if im not mistaken, he was 6th in rookie of the year votes. He is only going to improve at the position which is why I am sold on him at this point in time
He might improve, but there is certainly no rule (or even general trend) that says players get better over each of their first few years. As many guys regress as progress.
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Posted: 11/26/2012 9:16 PM

RE: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


If he regressed at the end of the year I might agree that there was a good possibility he would have a down year but after he rebounded after his slump and finished the season on a high I have serious doubts that he will regress the upcoming season. Could a sophomore slump happen? Of course. But the way he kept playing and never beat himself up over his mid season slump I have no doubts he is going to play at a high level in the near future
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  • brianmcon
  • Lake Elsinore Storm
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Posted: 12/03/2012 5:25 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
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Posted: 12/03/2012 6:47 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



brianmcon wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
Corner spots require power signed Tony Gwynn...

Alonso had a helluva rookie campaign, and my fear right now is that if he has any sort of sophomore slump people will be calling for his head.......This guy has every chance to be productive w/o hitting HR's
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Posted: 12/03/2012 7:59 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



TPichierri wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
Corner spots require power signed Tony Gwynn...

Alonso had a helluva rookie campaign, and my fear right now is that if he has any sort of sophomore slump people will be calling for his head.......This guy has every chance to be productive w/o hitting HR's
Endorsed by Mark Grace.

For now...Alonso looks like a 15 HR type in 2013.  However, with all the holes in the Padres...seems that focusing on him is off target.  Consider, as a rookie, Fangraphs, based on WAR, had him tied with Freeman (ATL) as the #13 1B...upper half in MLB.  Maybe the focus should be on those positions manned by players in the lower half.
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Posted: 12/03/2012 1:51 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



brianmcon wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
I still think Cashner will be a productive pitcher for us.
There is no way of know what we could have gotten if we had traded Alonso instead but if Cashner pitches as a solid #2 for 3-4 seasons......or a solid #3 for 5-6 seasons,then trading Rizzo was the right thing to do.Even IF Rizzo goes off in Chicago....which he very well might.It's pretty easy to hit homeruns there...especially compared to what Alonso sees everyday,even with the fence move.
Bottom line,we cant just compare Rizzo to Alonso....we have to compare Rizzo to Alonso AND Cashner.
Unless you want to guess at what we could have received for Alonso if we had kept Rizzo?





Prospect I'm Championing.........Jordan Paroubeck

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Posted: 12/03/2012 5:16 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



MrPadre19 wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
I still think Cashner will be a productive pitcher for us.
There is no way of know what we could have gotten if we had traded Alonso instead but if Cashner pitches as a solid #2 for 3-4 seasons......or a solid #3 for 5-6 seasons,then trading Rizzo was the right thing to do.Even IF Rizzo goes off in Chicago....which he very well might.It's pretty easy to hit homeruns there...especially compared to what Alonso sees everyday,even with the fence move.
Bottom line,we cant just compare Rizzo to Alonso....we have to compare Rizzo to Alonso AND Cashner.
Unless you want to guess at what we could have received for Alonso if we had kept Rizzo?
Exactly.
Prospect I'm Championing 2014: Jonathan Galvez (last year K Sampson)
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Posted: 12/03/2012 6:33 PM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 



FENN68 wrote:
TPichierri wrote:
brianmcon wrote:
MrPadre19 wrote: With the fence moving,he may become a 20-25 HR guy?
VERY good point; that could benefit him tremendously!

  What I don't like about Alonso is that he's a 1B that is a doubles guy not a HR guy.  To be at that position & have that be true, you really have no margin for error on your doubles production, batting average, & OBP.  If those slip at all, everyone will be screaming for a replacement.

   I loved the Latos trade, but Time will tell whether he or Rizzo pans out better in the long run.  Fences in helps every hitter to some extent..
Corner spots require power signed Tony Gwynn...

Alonso had a helluva rookie campaign, and my fear right now is that if he has any sort of sophomore slump people will be calling for his head.......This guy has every chance to be productive w/o hitting HR's
Endorsed by Mark Grace.

For now...Alonso looks like a 15 HR type in 2013.  However, with all the holes in the Padres...seems that focusing on him is off target.  Consider, as a rookie, Fangraphs, based on WAR, had him tied with Freeman (ATL) as the #13 1B...upper half in MLB.  Maybe the focus should be on those positions manned by players in the lower half.
And approved by Rod Carew
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Posted: 12/06/2012 12:59 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


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Posted: 12/06/2012 7:16 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


No Padres players were taken in the first round of the Major League phase.
Nate Frieman goes to Houston in the second round.

Minor League phase info to follow.

Last edited 12/06/2012 7:21 AM by davidjay

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Posted: 12/06/2012 7:27 AM

Re: Who do you think Padres will lose in Rule 5? 


Incidentally, the minor league phase may be the least relevant transactions in affiliated baseball each year. I'll give $5 to anyone who can, without looking it up, name the players the Padres selected and the players they lost in last year's minor league phase.
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