In light of the J.J. Hardy, Jeremy Hermida, Mark Teahan trades:

which realistic postition player acquistions would you like to see the A's make?

IMO, if the player is as hyped, young, productive, cost controlled, and on a winning team as Yunel Escobar, then Oakland's acquisition of that player is not realistic, because we have not acquired any such player in recent memory. 

Accordingly, My top 5:

1) Josh Willingham, LF Nationals: A slightly below average corner OF (-5.3 career), Willingham made up for his glove last year with an excellent performance at the plate (.373 wOBA), despite an abnormally low HR/FB ratio of 6.3.  Willingham hits alot of LDs (+20%), and has a surprisingly solid speed score, partly reflecting his ability to beat out infield hits (~10% career).  With a .365 wOBA in 2100+ career PA, it is pretty clear that Willingham is a valuable player.  Already 30 years old, however, Willingham will not likely be on the Nationals for long.  I'd guess that a package of Buck, Simmons and Breslow would be a competitive offer for Willingham. 

2) Ian Stewart, 3B Rockies:  Despite the .227 average, 25 HRs and 56 BBs helped Stewart post a .337 wOBA.  His defense during 20 games at 2b was horrible (-55), but his defense at 3B is solid (career +7.3 in 1,400 innings).  With infield prospects like Hector Gomez, Daniel Mayora, Chris Nelson, Darin Holcomb, and Eric Young on the way, the Rockies might part with Stewart for a decent package.  Obviously, the recent waiver of Garrett Atkins makes Stewart's availability less likely.

3) Chad Tracy, 1B/3B:  Despite playing alot of 1B, Tracy is an above average glove at 3B (career UZR +3.8 in 2,700 innings).  From 05-07, Tracy posted wOBAs of .384, .342, and .342.  After being injured mid way through 07, Tracy's performance has been lousy (wOBA ~.305).  A's fans are no doubt tired of injury prone, left handed 3b with disappearing power, but after the D'backs declined Tracy's $7M option, he won't cost a draft pick to sign and will likely make significantly less than 7M.  Although Cardenas and Wallace could potentially play 3B, neither one has played 3B often or well, so Tracy would potentially fill a big hole on the roster, and increase the front office's ability to be flexible and patient with the prospects.     

4) Felix Pie, CF Baltimore:  Pie quietly posted a .326 wOBA last season, while playing fine defense (19.4 in LF, 5.3 in CF).  Pie is finally showing some ability to walk (8.7%), and hit the ball squarely (20.9% LD, 11.3% HR/FB).

5) David Murphy, LF Rangers:  Murphy is not much better than what many A's fans consider Travis Buck to be:  a solid corner OF glove with a decent lefty bat that draws walks (10.4%) and hits for some power (.187 career ISO).  Considering that Murphy plays in Arlington while Buck plays in the Collisium, Murphy's better numbers probably arn't that much more impressive than Buck's solid stretches.  The difference is, that Murphy has stayed healthy, has consistently improved, and is coming off of a solid season.  Even so, Texas wouldn't likely charge an arm and a leg for Murphy, considering the prospects in their system and his approaching arbitration eligibility.      

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honerable mention: Mike Fontenot, 2b Cubs; Jhonny Peralta, SS/3B Indians; Chase Headley, 3B Padres; Nate Schierholtz, RF Giants; & Elijah Dukes, RF Nationals. 

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possible 2010 Matt Holliday candidates: 

Travis Hafner, DH Indians:  quietly posted a .355 wOBA.  probably not available, but financial considerations, recent injury, and a weak rotation might cause Cleveland to shop him.

Ryan Doutmit, C Pirates:  a lousy glove with a solid bat, Doumit struggled through injuries last year (.306 wOBA in 304 PA) but when healthy, he is what many fans hope Langdon Powell can someday become.

tracy for nothing more than a mill or so, declining 3 yrs

giving up buck, breslow, simmons for willingham after 4 months ago giving up gallagher/webb/italiano for hairston. where will either play if on the same team unless one is DH'd. Or hairston shifts back to CF

Felix Pie would have been a good acquisition in the Rich Harden trade but Billy Beane preferred the bat of Matt Murton. I have no idea why Baltimore would want to trade him now. Also, with Garrett Atkins impending departure in Colorado, Ian Stewart isn't going anywhere.

What about Hideki Matsui? Fits the bill of aging slugger who probably had better #s than would be expected because of the lineup and ballpark he was in. He's also a leftie and the A's can't seem to get enough left-handed hitters. Are the Yankees going to shed both Damon and Matsui? Interestingly enough, both had about the same #s.

The A's have ~$30 M to spend if they choose to. I really don't think any of the plausible DH/OF names on the FA list are that much better than a cheap Jack Cust. I'd rather have money spent on a starting pitcher.  Another run at Randy Johnson? He's only 46.

If Seattle outbids Beane for Beltre, I really have no idea what the A's will spend their money on. They may very well just keep their options open and plan to make a run in 2011.

A realistic deal I could see happening if it did not include the Giants would be dealing for either Cain or Lowry. I believe both are free agents in 2011. Doubt the Giants can pay both and may listen to offers this offseason. Just a guess. Bronson Arroyo is another example of a quality veteran starter.

Maybe Chris Young of the Padres, who had Tommy John. The more I think through the possibilities, the name I keep coming back to is Tim Hudson. He would be ideal.

HighFrequently wrote: Last season, they stood pat on starting pitching. This year is a similar situation with the position players. Don't expect much at all to be brought in.

This is what I am expecting. If anything, the A's would get a stopgap at 3B--as in a player like Marco Scutaro from 2005 or Adam Kennedy for 1 year and $2-ish million total. Guys like Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus and Chone Figgins would seem to be entirely out of the question--they don't add anything vital to the team (like a great bat), they would immediately become one of the highest paid players on the roster and they would require multiple years. That last one is the worst part of it because they would be blocking guys like Brett Wallace from their future position on the team.

Not to single anyone out, but when I read something like "If Seattle outbids Beane for Beltre, I really have no idea what the A's will spend their money on." I wonder what the logic there is. Just because the projected payroll is less than the payroll in the past, it doesn't mean that the A's have to spend the money. A lot of fans act like the money has to be used up or it will go away.

It is nice to have payroll flexibility right now, but I don't see any moves that really make sense for the present and the future of the team. Any moves that will be made will be "smart" pickups, not spending money just to spend money.

Nobodyinparticular: Just because the projected payroll is less than the payroll in the past, it doesn't mean that the A's have to spend the money. A lot of fans act like the money has to be used up or it will go away.

What do you think I said dumbass?

I believe he was agreeing with you

Lowry was just let go and I brought up the idea of going after him. 

His agent said hes' finally healthy, although you can never be sure if that's 100% true, but if he is, he when he was on was at least a #3 and borderline #2 in your rotation.  I say why not, is he a bigger risk than lets say resigning a Duke or bringing back Tomko?  

Guess the one "drawback" if you can make out to be one is that if the A's did sign him, you'd project to have a rotation with 4 LHSP...Anderson, Lowry, Braden, Gio, with only one RHSP in Cahill.  A's did start a season with 4 LHSPs before with Mulder, Zito, Lilly, and I believe Redman back in 04 with Huddy being the only RHSP.  

Lowry if he is healthy would definitely IMO a low risk but high reward type of acquisition. 

athleticpride wrote:

Lowry was just let go and I brought up the idea of going after him.

 

His agent said hes' finally healthy, although you can never be sure if that's 100% true, but if he is, he when he was on was at least a #3 and borderline #2 in your rotation.  I say why not, is he a bigger risk than lets say resigning a Duke or bringing back Tomko?

 

Guess the one "drawback" if you can make out to be one is that if the A's did sign him, you'd project to have a rotation with 4 LHSP...Anderson, Lowry, Braden, Gio, with only one RHSP in Cahill.  A's did start a season with 4 LHSPs before with Mulder, Zito, Lilly, and I believe Redman back in 04 with Huddy being the only RHSP.

 

Lowry if he is healthy would definitely IMO a low risk but high reward type of acquisition.

 

 

 

Also keep in mind that Outman is "projected" to return to the rotation around the All-Star Break in 2010. (also a lefty)

I almost wonder if it would be better to ride out the pitchers the A's have.

Dallas Braden

Brett Anderson

Gio Gonzalez

Trevor Cahill

Vince Mazzaro

Josh Outman (halfway through--assuming he stays on track)

James Simmons (perhaps could get a look)

Clay Mortensen

Dana Eveland (???)

One would assume that the top 2 spots in the rotation belong to Braden and Anderson--and rightly so. Beyond that, Outman would slot it #3 in the rotation following his return from TJS. Then it's up to Gio, Cahill, Mazzaro, Simmons, Mortensen and Eveland to fill in the final 2 spots (3 for the first half of the season).

Personally, I think Gio Gonzalez needs the 1st half of the season in the bigs--ride him for 15+ starts and see if he can stick or not (his FIP was actually a fairly good 4.47 last season while his tRA was a slightly worse 4.73). I just think that Gio needs to take his lumps in the bigs now. He got 98 IP last season, he needs at least another 100 IP to get a handle on him.

After that, I can see the argument that Cahill and Mazzaro could benefit from more time in AAA, but I do not think that will happen. Also, I can see the argument that it could be more damaging than productive for the two when you figure that it would be considered a demotion. Keep in mind that Beane likened Trevor Cahill to Mark Mulder (their rookie years were very similarly bad in terms of peripherals) and Mulder was not demoted the following season.

Beyond that, I think that if one of the two is sent down, Dana Eveland deserves one final shot at the major leagues. If there's a spot in the rotation, I think he should get it.

To conclude this fairly long post, I do feel that Lowry would be alright as a pickup if he received a 1-year deal with a very low guarantee amount (think league minimum). He put together a very good season and a half between 2004 and 2005, showing a solid ability to strike people out while having solid control, but since then has lost his ability to get the K. After a full season off, he certainly doesn't deserve a promised slot in the rotation much less a guarantee of much money.

To answer the question:  NONE.  I think the A's need to sort out what they have first as far as prospects who may ... or may not ... make the club. 

Nobodyinparticular wrote:

 

athleticpride wrote:

Lowry was just let go and I brought up the idea of going after him.

 

His agent said hes' finally healthy, although you can never be sure if that's 100% true, but if he is, he when he was on was at least a #3 and borderline #2 in your rotation.  I say why not, is he a bigger risk than lets say resigning a Duke or bringing back Tomko?

 

Guess the one "drawback" if you can make out to be one is that if the A's did sign him, you'd project to have a rotation with 4 LHSP...Anderson, Lowry, Braden, Gio, with only one RHSP in Cahill.  A's did start a season with 4 LHSPs before with Mulder, Zito, Lilly, and I believe Redman back in 04 with Huddy being the only RHSP.

 

Lowry if he is healthy would definitely IMO a low risk but high reward type of acquisition.

 

 

 

Also keep in mind that Outman is "projected" to return to the rotation around the All-Star Break in 2010. (also a lefty)

 

I almost wonder if it would be better to ride out the pitchers the A's have.

 

Dallas Braden

Brett Anderson

Gio Gonzalez

Trevor Cahill

Vince Mazzaro

Josh Outman (halfway through--assuming he stays on track)

James Simmons (perhaps could get a look)

Clay Mortensen

Dana Eveland (???)

 

One would assume that the top 2 spots in the rotation belong to Braden and Anderson--and rightly so. Beyond that, Outman would slot it #3 in the rotation following his return from TJS. Then it's up to Gio, Cahill, Mazzaro, Simmons, Mortensen and Eveland to fill in the final 2 spots (3 for the first half of the season).

 

Personally, I think Gio Gonzalez needs the 1st half of the season in the bigs--ride him for 15+ starts and see if he can stick or not (his FIP was actually a fairly good 4.47 last season while his tRA was a slightly worse 4.73). I just think that Gio needs to take his lumps in the bigs now. He got 98 IP last season, he needs at least another 100 IP to get a handle on him.

 

After that, I can see the argument that Cahill and Mazzaro could benefit from more time in AAA, but I do not think that will happen. Also, I can see the argument that it could be more damaging than productive for the two when you figure that it would be considered a demotion. Keep in mind that Beane likened Trevor Cahill to Mark Mulder (their rookie years were very similarly bad in terms of peripherals) and Mulder was not demoted the following season.

 

Beyond that, I think that if one of the two is sent down, Dana Eveland deserves one final shot at the major leagues. If there's a spot in the rotation, I think he should get it.

 

To conclude this fairly long post, I do feel that Lowry would be alright as a pickup if he received a 1-year deal with a very low guarantee amount (think league minimum). He put together a very good season and a half between 2004 and 2005, showing a solid ability to strike people out while having solid control, but since then has lost his ability to get the K. After a full season off, he certainly doesn't deserve a promised slot in the rotation much less a guarantee of much money.

Very nice general run down on the state of the starting rotation in '10.  I agree with everything you said here.

Well, sadly my thoughts on this are a bit less exciting than others.

As far as I see it, this team has only 2 or 3 question marks leading into next year:

1b:  This is one of the ? positions. Could be Barton? Could be Wallace (doubtful)? This is one position we may see a new face at.

2b: Ellis

SS: Pennington

3b:  Potential ? position. This will either be Wallace or Kennedy. If neither, it means a new face and because they still see Wallace there, I don't see a pick up here as a big name, just an under the radar year fill in most likely. Meaning, not Beltre or anything.

C: Suzuki

OF: I group this as one because we have so many options here. As of now, I see us gonig into ST with Hairston and Rajai as starters. That leaves one more spot for Sweeney (most likely), Buck, etc etc. We have a bit of a log jam of guys that are not stars, but have solid potential. I doubt we see a new face here based on what we have, unless the team decides to package up a Buck or Sweeney with something else, to get a somewhat, more proven player with solid bat for one of the spots. I don't really see it happening, but it's possible.

DH: ?Cust?  If Cust is retained, there you go. If he's not, I could see us filling this internally with Landon Powell and bringing up another backup Catcher - potentially an older vet who's known more for his defense than his offense. That said, Suzuki has played a lot behind the plate - I am wondering if they will give him the same workload next year. The organization seems to like Powell's bat a bunch, but he seems to be too fragile to play behind the plate. If they do indeed get rid of Cust and retain Powell as a DH guy, I would like to see him learn to play some 1b as backup/emergency option. Having these DH-only guy's who can't/don't play the field at all, piss me off. He should be able to handle playing 1b fairly well based on his Catching history and it just gives us an option to throw there if needed in an extra inning game, for a breather, or emergency.

SP:  My take? You keep what you got. While last year was painful to watch overall, the good news is guys like our starting pitchers and Pennington got some time in the majors and I think that is critical to their development and future success. I don't see any reason why Cahill and Mazzaro are sent down. I believe the team should have every intention of starting the year with a rotation of Braden, Anderson, Gio, Cahill, Mazzaro. Now, if Duke is retainted on the cheap, one of the above is sent down until injury issues arise. This team is not going to be good enough to win the division next year (though I feel they can be better than this year with, if nothing, the last year under a lot of these guys' belts) so what is the point of spending a bunch of dough on an expensive starter?

Bullpen: Pretty solid. I am sure there will be a couple of changes, but overall, I expect good things again. Fake Jairo may be done? Kilby to take over his spot? There will be movement, but nothing crazy here.

Bench: Whatever. Patterson, etc etc etc. As always, I would like to see versatile guys on the bench, who can all play OF and IF positions. I don't see us making a big splash with a bench positions.

Thus, overall, I think "going for it" last year, while fun, didn't quite work out. I liked the pickups of Giambi, O.Cab, and Nomar, but really, none of that did much. Holliday pretty much was a normal dude most of the season here and netted us Wallace which should be fun. I think Hairston will be a solid but not spectacular, affordable fill in with a bat capable of 20 homers and easily the most powerful OF we have right now (sad). Frankly, with our SP group and only a few potential positional questions marks (1b, 3b, DH) I don't see the point of anything big in the off season - mostly because our future 3b (wallace) is only a year away at most, DH is nothing more than finding a big bat at value, and 1b is either going to be Barton or a year away from one of the minor league guys.

Now, that said: the only "bigger" pickups I see us potentially making, is if we possibly package up some of our "depth" (either more pitching or OF guys) and get back an Outfielder or a 1b that can be a guy they see as a future, somewhat long term, fixture there. That's just my take. We may have $30MM to spend this year with everything coming off the books, but in actuality, we just don't have that many open spots.

Just my LONG take :)

Do it Billy... by now Austin Kearns is like the new Jack Cust... destined to be an Oakland A...

god help us. Yeah, lets fill the "Bobby Kielty" role now right?  Yuck. no thank you.

asfanfirst wrote:

Austin Kearns RF

Not offered contract and became free agent

 

Do it Billy... by now Austin Kearns is like the new Jack Cust... destined to be an Oakland A...

Looks to me like the only places where there is not much reason to be optimistic are Starting Pitching depth and SS.

Hardy is gone, but I'd go and get someone who can at least be a plus defender at SS, and a starting pitcher who can give some league average innings and maybe a comeback possibility or two.  Let's say:

SS Candidates -- Mike Aviles, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez

SP Candidates - Jon Garland, Carl Pavano, Doug Davis

SP Comeback Candidates -- Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, John Smoltz, Jose Contreras

As a luxury, they could get a 3B like Placido Polanco or Adrian Beltre, and maybe a DH like Nick Johnson, Milton Bradley, Vladimir Guerrero or Hideki Matsui if they didn't want to depend on Cust.

I'd pick Gonzalez, Pavano, Duchscherer, Smoltz and Matsui

Now, I admit this was a busy season for me and I didn't get to keep up as much as I would like, but isn't Polanco a 2b?

I was thinking the same thing. I have never seen PP play 3b.

ComicBookGeek wrote:

Now, I admit this was a busy season for me and I didn't get to keep up as much as I would like, but isn't Polanco a 2b?