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2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly

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Posted: 12/26/2012 2:25 PM

2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips -projections-oakland-athletics/

The ZIPS numbers are pretty bad for the A's, making them look like a .500 franchise.

Last edited 12/26/2012 2:53 PM by joshbalt

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Posted: 12/26/2012 2:27 PM

RE: 2014 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


Nonsense.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 2:52 PM

Re: 2014 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


What did it say last year?
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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:00 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


with the addition of the astros, i don't think the A's will be a .500 team, but there could be several guys:

Reddick
Moss
Carter
Griffin
Milone
Colon
Blevins

headed towards serious regression. I think ZIPS are usually conservation, and it's probably the case with the A's.. but it still make a lot of sense.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:19 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


I think we should expect some regression from last year's performances (when team performance even surprises the team's architect, it's a warning flag), which is why I hoped the team would be somewhat aggressive about acquiring a few upgrades. Picking up Young for a song was a good start, but not enough, IMO. Acquiring someone like Escobar, if he had been cheap, would have been another nice hedge against regression.

As it is, I think the A's are probably underdogs to make the playoffs in 2013, but still within striking distance of either a wildcard spot or the division. Brett Anderson turning in a fully healthy season could swing things, but it's hard to expect that.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:31 PM

RE: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


Heading into 2013 A's are probably

Behind:
Blue Jays
Rangers
Tigers
Yankees

On Par with:
Angels
Red Sox
White Sox

Ahead of:
Tampa Bay
Orioles
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Posted: 12/26/2012 9:34 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



I agree with this list except for Blevins. I think he is legit now. I also think A's are bound to get more from 2B and SS than they did last year. I also think C could be a better position statistically. Zook was horrific for many months. So all is not lost
---------------------------------------------
--- zitoforpres wrote:

with the addition of the astros, i don't think the A's will be a .500 team, but there could be several guys:

Reddick
Moss
Carter
Griffin
Milone
Colon
Blevins

headed towards serious regression. I think ZIPS are usually conservation, and it's probably the case with the A's.. but it still make a lot of sense.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 12/26/2012 9:35 PM

RE: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


23 HRs for Cespedes in 625 PAs? And almost a .030 drop in BA and .018 in OBP? We'll call that a very conservative projection.

Loving the #1 comp for Parker though. Comparing him to Greg Maddux, we'll call that an aggressive comp.

Last edited 12/26/2012 9:37 PM by jclay09

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Posted: 12/26/2012 10:28 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


A's pretty much got nothing out of SS, 2b, 3b, and catcher. yes inge had a run of doing well with RISP, but his OPs was still low and donaldson didnt start hitting until his august callup. If they can get improvements in those positions it might ballance the regression of some of the other hitters. Of course, their entire infield is still uncertain so we'll see
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Posted: 12/27/2012 8:22 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


It's not a safe bet that Nakajima will be better than Pennington/Drew. His defense is an unknown quantity and we don't know if he can hit major league pitching. While Donaldson deserves a good-sized leash, he's far from proven. I wouldn't expect improvement at 3B. I think the A's should improve at 2B and C simply because the bar is so low.

I'm expecting:

1B, RF, CF, LF, DH: down
3B, SS: same
2B, C: up

The bullpen should be down. Hard to expect any unit to repeat a 2.94 ERA, pitcher's park or not.

The A's lose McCarthy and follow that up with likely regression from Colon, Milone, Blackley and Griffin. On the plus side, they won't be dipping into the likes of Godfrey and Ross early in the season. They also add Anderson and Parker could be a little bit better. As a unit, I think the starting pitching will be about the same.

The A's also get a boost from their schedule by getting Houston added to the division. That will help their wildcard chances. I think the A's are contenders but, I don't see them as a clear lock to win 90+.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 8:27 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


The comps are kinda interesting -- Maddux for Parker, but also Mike Boddicker for Griffin, Al Hrabosky for Doolittle, Julio Franco for Nakajima, Brook Jacoby for Head and Gary Gaetti for Donaldson.  On the uglier side, Jeff Juden for Straily, Glendon Rusch for Milone, Vernon Wells for Cespedes and Justin Atchley for Anderson.  Right now it looks like the A's are at a level below the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays.  They seem to be about at the same level as the Red Sox and Royals.  Of course if Parker and Griffin turn into Maddux and Boddicker this year, that would make things a lot brighter.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 9:07 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



WaddellCanseco wrote: The comps are kinda interesting -- Maddux for Parker, but also Mike Boddicker for Griffin, Al Hrabosky for Doolittle, Julio Franco for Nakajima, Brook Jacoby for Head and Gary Gaetti for Donaldson.  On the uglier side, Jeff Juden for Straily, Glendon Rusch for Milone, Vernon Wells for Cespedes and Justin Atchley for Anderson.  Right now it looks like the A's are at a level below the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays.  They seem to be about at the same level as the Red Sox and Royals.  Of course if Parker and Griffin turn into Maddux and Boddicker this year, that would make things a lot brighter.
The Vernon Wells one was interesting... what version of Vernon?  The Gold Glove version that was hitting 25+ bombs? Or the shell of a player he's turned into?  

Loved the Gary Gaetti comp for Donladson, Julio Franco for Nakajima, Sizemore as Mike Blowers, and Brandon Moss as Luke Scott. 

They don't seem to be high on Norris at all.  His projected line is horrific.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 9:29 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



voxhoo wrote: It's not a safe bet that Nakajima will be better than Pennington/Drew. His defense is an unknown quantity and we don't know if he can hit major league pitching. While Donaldson deserves a good-sized leash, he's far from proven. I wouldn't expect improvement at 3B. I think the A's should improve at 2B and C simply because the bar is so low.

I'm expecting:

1B, RF, CF, LF, DH: down
3B, SS: same
2B, C: up

The bullpen should be down. Hard to expect any unit to repeat a 2.94 ERA, pitcher's park or not.

The A's lose McCarthy and follow that up with likely regression from Colon, Milone, Blackley and Griffin. On the plus side, they won't be dipping into the likes of Godfrey and Ross early in the season. They also add Anderson and Parker could be a little bit better. As a unit, I think the starting pitching will be about the same.

The A's also get a boost from their schedule by getting Houston added to the division. That will help their wildcard chances. I think the A's are contenders but, I don't see them as a clear lock to win 90+.
I expect the outfield as a group to be about the same as adding Young provides a good righty hitter, improves the defense, and overall mitigates any decline from Reddick or Crisp. I see more upside than downside in the outfield group as Cespedes and Reddick could establish upward trends.

The duo of Moss and Carter seem to be the primary wildcard as their performances were far above their prior trend lines. It will help that they can be platooned which should mitigate downward pressure on their performance levels.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 9:49 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


how much decline is expected from reddick? i'd take 20 hr's if his plate approach was much better. i'm not sure i want him hitting in spots #3-5 next season especially with his struggles RISP

he had one amazing month in may w/ 10 hr, .974 ops and had a pretty terrible 2nd half.
Did he struggle, get tired, just got exposed later in the season?
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Posted: 12/27/2012 11:13 AM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



arly2380 wrote: how much decline is expected from reddick? i'd take 20 hr's if his plate approach was much better. i'm not sure i want him hitting in spots #3-5 next season especially with his struggles RISP

he had one amazing month in may w/ 10 hr, .974 ops and had a pretty terrible 2nd half.
Did he struggle, get tired, just got exposed later in the season?
Is Reddick really that likely to decline? Looking at his yearly progression I see him with only slightly high wRC+ in 2012, 108, than with the Red Sox in 2011, 107, and neither of which were out of lien considering his age and history. Bill James has Reddick improving slightly from 2012.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3892 &position=OF
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Posted: 12/27/2012 12:01 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


While it's reasonable to expect Young to be better than Gomes in 2013, it's unlikely that Young can out hit Gomes 2012. Gomes put up an .868 OPS in Oakland. Young's numbers should drop moving from one of the best hitter's parks to one of the worst hitter's park.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 2:13 PM

Re: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



When discussing performance prediction regression, one needs to understand what it means.  Classically, regression means reversion to the mediocre.  The question is what population are we drawing the mediocre from or are we going to apply mediocre to a player's past performance or is there a combination algorithm.  For example, Griffin and Milone  are the definition of mediocre in league average.  However, their minor league performances indicate a better than average performance however their age is an issue.  It all depends on how one defines "mediocre".

For example, the Marcel performance prediction system does not use a players past performance and looks at the players performance and says next year it will be closer to league average.  It is why it is called "Marcel" named after the monkey in Friends.  For guys like Norris, Marcel is a big bump up in performance, for people like Cespedes it is not so good.

As one gets to PECOTA and ZIPS, they use highly specialized algorithms to take into account many other factors.  Interestingly, none of these specialized systems seem to be much better than Marcel.  Yes, they are a little better, but not very much.

I have not actually calculated the standard error of any of these systems, but, casually,  it looks like they all operate at about 65% of the prediction population being +/- 10% of their predicted values.  In the world of predictive statistics this is about normal. 

In the world of baseball statistics however, +/- 10% is pretty large.  It says that the 270 predicted value for Cespedes could actually mean almost 300.  Further, the 35% that fits outside the predicted population is quite large.

SO what does all this mean?  it means that the A's had an extrordinary year last year with players who do not fit well within any prediction system that I have seen.  Does Donaldson keep up his post AS break offensive performance due to the change in position to 3rd?  Good question.  How could anyone predict Doolittle at this point?  The sky is the limit for him if one considers the progress he made in a less than a year of pro pitching.  If one only considers his pitching age, Doolittle might be the best young player in baseball, by a wide margin given what he accomplished.

Cespedes was a 26 year old rookie.  In most complex systems this would be held against him.  But he was not allowed to compete before so why should his age be held against him?  it shouldn't.  Griffin made it to the big leagues at 24, which is probably held against him.  However, he did so with less than 2 years of pro experience.  This says that he has much more room to grow.

The bottom line is that I doubt any prediction system will be generous to the A's.  The question is will this lead to less wins next year?  Hard to say.  My first guess is that half of the players from last year will see improved performance and half will see worse performance.  Which ones that will be I don't know.  The final record will probably come down to how well the bullpen performs in close games.
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Posted: 12/27/2012 8:36 PM

RE: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


Where those comps come from is bewildering. Who the heck is Justin Atchley, and is there any question in Brett Anderson's being much better than him?
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Posted: 12/28/2012 8:28 AM

RE: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 



Qwerty75 wrote: Where those comps come from is bewildering. Who the heck is Justin Atchley, and is there any question in Brett Anderson's being much better than him?
The main similarity between Anderson and Atchley seems to be that both were injured a lot and missed entire years with injury.  I guess if you're always hurt it doesn't really matter that much how good you are.
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Posted: 12/28/2012 8:43 AM

RE: 2013 A's ZIPS, its ugly 


Yeah but his (Atchley's) minor league numbers were nothing like Anderson's. On top of that Anderson actually produced in the majors whereas Atchley litterally only got a cup of bad coffee in the Bigs. In fact the only comp I see is that they are both fairly big left handers. Lazy comp if you ask me.

Edit: And as you stated they both an extensive injury history.

Last edited 12/28/2012 8:45 AM by Halloffamer7

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