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Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade?

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Posted: 7/16/2014 9:15 PM

Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Rank'em. 

2014-Brandon Finnegan, 17th overall
2013-Hunter Dozier, 8th overall
2012-Kyle Zimmer, 5th overall
2011-Bubba Starling, 5th overall
2010-Christian Colon, 4th overall
2009-Aaron Crow, 12th overall
2008-Eric Hosmer, 3rd overall
2007-Mike Moustakas, 2nd overall
2006-Luke Hochevar, 1st overall
2005-Alex Gordon, 2nd overall

Worst Picks:
1.Luke Hochevar - What a dud. The #1 overall pick turns from an absolute bust as a starter, to a stud reliever, to TJ surgery #1040. Disaster.

2.Christian Colon - Taking someone with as low of a ceiling as Colon in the top 5 is an absolute joke. I honestly have no clue what Dayton and crew were thinking taking him at the 4th overall spot. This would probably be my #1 if not for Hochevar being the first overall selection.

3.Bubba Starling - This guy hasn't even excelled in Lexington, yet he got moved up to Wilmington, and it wasn't really a huge shock when he sucked with the Blue Rocks as well. Not sure if they're going to just continue forcing his horrible bat up the minor league ranks like they did with Eibner or if he'll just end up being out of the game before long. What a disaster of a pick.

4.Mike Moustakas - 2nd overall pick, but hey, at least this top 5 pick made the big league squad and produced in the minors! Other than that, there's not much to say. He has a pretty decent glove at least, but he can't hit worth a damn.

5.Aaron Crow - Drafted as a starter, then quickly turned into a reliever without ever trying to revert back to a starter. Has now lost a good bit of velocity, seen a huge drop in his K rate, and is pretty mediocre in general. Seems as if the Twins picked up the better Mizzou pitcher in this draft with Kyle Gibson. I would've placed Crow 4th if not for Moustakas being taken 2nd overall.

Final 5 (not necessary to rank these):
6.Hunter Dozier
7.Eric Hosmer
8.Brandon Finnegan
9.Kyle Zimmer
10.Alex Gordon

"The one thing I’ve learned about Ned and Dayton both is they are as obsessed with winning as I am. All three of us have a real problem when we lose. Anyone who knows me knows that I’m not just committed to winning, I’m obsessed with winning." -David Glass

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Posted: 7/16/2014 9:26 PM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Got to -go with Starling as worst - with his numbers this year, he won't make it past AA.  Colon would be 2.
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Posted: 7/16/2014 10:31 PM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


I wouldnt give up on Bubba quite yet

Its pretty much impossible to rank right now. 3 o the 10 have barely played, and ones a two time all star and soon to be 4 time gold glover. I dont see how you can even rank them right now
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Posted: 7/17/2014 8:10 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Bubba, and the perfect storm of circumstances that seems to have cornered the front-office into taking the local kid. It's also very hard to be positive about his future. So I think I'd call the guy who will likely never sniff MLB and flame out in A+ or AA to be the worst pick. At least the rest made it to MLB, or have a much better chance of doing so.

At the time, the Colon pick wasn't considered the horrid waste it is now...I think most figured he'd be our starting 2B in a year or two after being drafted, or a competent utility guy at the very least. I think he still could, don't know why we kept dicking around with Ciriaco this year.




Thanks, Dave.



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Posted: 7/17/2014 9:53 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


1. Colon - I hated that the Royals were linked to him before they selected him, I hated the pick then, and I hate it now.  Granted, I wanted Grandal over Sale, but I wanted no part of the zero upside Colon and it is easily the worst pick at the time of selection in the last decade, and possibly the worst in retrospect ( though I think retrospect draft analysis is lame).

2. Starling - I wanted Rendon and was disappointed they went with Bubba, who is a complete bust.  But I understand why they did it and at the very least he had tremendous upside which was something Colon had none of, which is the only reason Bubba manages to come in at #2.

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3.  Moustakas - After the clear #1 in Price was off the board I really wanted Wieters and was disappointed (though not terribly) that they went with Moose.  He has continued to disappoint.

4.  Hochevar - I, along with most other posters and draft analysis experts, wanted Miller who has been no better than Hoch.  Meh, it was just a crappy year to have the #1 pick.  Still think Hoch might have flourished in a different system/environment.  Flip flop Hoch and Lincecum and we might all me arguing about what a turd pick Lincecum turned out to be for the Royals and how lucky the Giants were with Hochevar.  He unquestionably had the talent to be something special.


I actually liked the Crow signing, though I'm disappointed he turned into no more than a middle reliever.  At the time of the pick, the Royals were rumored to be looking at some kid named Wil Myers who was viewed as a 2nd round talent with the 12th overall pick, and the board went into meltdown.  As it turned out the Royals took one of the BPA at #12 in Crow (even though he didn't reach his ceiling) AND still managed to get Myers.  It was a solid first day of drafting overall.  I have no complaints with the Finnegan or Zimmer picks, I loved what they did with Dozier and Manaea last year, I loved the Gordon pick (he's been no Tulo, but that pick certainly worked out pretty well).  As for Hosmer, he too has been pretty disappointing, but I had zero complaints at the time he was drafted.



Last edited 7/17/2014 9:56 AM by ElChupanibre

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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:00 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


I suppose Colon can still be a utility player, but I'm not sure if I'd be happy with my #4 overall pick being a 150-200 AB utility player with a .650-.700 OPS at best :/

I guess some production is better than no production, but you can find utility players on the FA for dirt cheap. 

And Starling is Brett Eibner 2.0 at this point at best, although that's probably a bit too kind considering Eibner possessed way more power in both A and A+ ball than Starling has up to this point. Makes me wonder what KC's plan of attack with Starling is...will he go ahead and move up to AA next season, basically trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, stay in A+ where he eventually just ends up being released, or what? My guess is NWA since they did the same with Eibner, even though at least Eibner had .200 ISO rates in A+ vs Starling's .120 ISO rates

Edit: Obviously, as you move down the list, things are basically changing from the "worst picks" to the "best picks," with #10 being the best. That's why Gordon was my #10, ryansublett - meaning that he was the best pick in the past decade. I still like the 6-10 in my list quite a bit, even Hosmer is a guy that I'd love taking a "flier" on if I was the GM of another team and Dayton was willing to part ways with him.

"The one thing I’ve learned about Ned and Dayton both is they are as obsessed with winning as I am. All three of us have a real problem when we lose. Anyone who knows me knows that I’m not just committed to winning, I’m obsessed with winning." -David Glass

Last edited 7/17/2014 10:07 AM by DonaldEldridge

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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:13 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


That's a scary list of picks for a front office that preaches drafting and development.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:20 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


I'm not sure how anyone could not put Starling at #1 on the list. He may go down as one of the top 10 biggest busts in MLB history. At least Colon has actually played some MLB ball and has potential for an Infante or Polanco type career with enough playing time. Nothing great but could become a solid regular.

To be perfectly honest, Gordon is really the only guy on this list where you can say the Royals for sure have an MLB regular or higher excluding the high picks turned middle relievers which sucked too. Hosmer has now had two "good" seasons and two bad seasons. I'm still not really sure what he is and 1B are a dime a dozen especially ones with overrated defense who can't hit. At this point, Moose has been mostly awful outside of a couple good months in his MLB career. He sucks and I envision Dozier will be able to take his spot sometime next year. Dozier probably won't be a star, but I think he can be a .275, 20 HR, 80 RBI type guy with average defense at 3B.

The odds are against Zimmer ever contributing. Wasn't he supposed to start pitching again this week? Or was it next week? Or next month?
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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:22 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:28 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


I just randomly picked a year...2007.

Price went number one - no brainer. Then Moose. Daniel Moskos went third to the Pirates (WHO?).

Other notables:

Wieters at 5 - good pick.

Jarrod Parker - injuries have made him a bust.

Bumgarner at 10 - good pick.

Heyward at 14 - well...I dunno...he's not exaclty lit the world on fire, honestly. Not a bad player...but hasn't lived up to the hype.

Mesoraco at 15 - he's had one good half - this year. Jury is out.

Porcello at 27 - solid starter. This is his first noteworthy season. Still only 25.

Revere at 28 - decent big leaguer. Nothing fantastic.

So...outside of Price...there were like 2 no-doubt good picks (Wieters, Bumgarner) and some where guys have been good, but not great. That's a huge fail rate across the board.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:43 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 



bobellis75 wrote: So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
Oakland Athletics
2005 - Cliff Pennington, 21st overall
2006 - No 1st rd pick
2007 - James Simmons, 26th overall
2007 - No 1st rd pick
2008 - Jemile Weeks, 12th overall
2009 - Grant Green, 13th overall
2010 - Michael Choice, 10th overall
2011 - Sonny Gray, 18th overall
2012 - Addison Russell, 11th overall
2013 - Billy McKinney, 24th overall
2014 - Matt Chapman, 25th overall

Tampa Bay Rays
2005 - Wade Townsend, 8th overall
2006 - Evan Longoria, 3rd overall
2007 - David Price, 1st overall
2008 - Tim Beckham, 1st overall
2009 - LeVon Washinigton, 30th overall
2010 - Josh Sale, 17th overall
2011 -Taylor Guerrieri, 24th overall
2012 - Richie Shaffer, 25th overall
2013 - Nick Ciuffo, 21st overall
2014 - Casey Gillaspie, 20th overall

Minnesota Twins
2005 - Matt Garza, 25th overall
2006 - Chris Parmelee, 20th overall
2007 - Ben Revere, 28th overall
2008 - Aaron Hicks, 14th overall
2009 - Kyle Gibson, 22nd overall
2010 - Alex Wimmers, 21st overall
2011 - Levi Michael, 30th overall
2012 - Byron Buxton, 2nd overall
2013 - Kohl Stewart, 4th overall
2014 - Nick Gordon, 5th overall

Milwaukee Brewers
2005 - Ryan Braun, 5th overall
2006 - Jeremy Jeffress, 16th overall
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 7th overall
2008 - Brett lawrie, 16th overall
2009 - Eric Arnett, 16th overall
2010 - Dylan Covey, 14th overall
2011 - Jed Bradley, 15th overall and Taylor Jungmann, 12th overall
2012 - Victor Roache, 28th overall and Clint Coulter, 27th overall
2013 - No 1st rd pick
2014 - Kodi Medeiros, 12th overall

St. Louis Cardinals
2005 - Colby Ramus, 28th overall
2006 - Adam Ottavino, 20th overall
2007 - Peter Kozma, 18th overall
2008 - Brett Wallace, 13th overall
2009 - Shelby Miller, 19th overall
2010 - No 1st rd pick
2011 - Kolten Wong, 22nd overall
2012 - Michael Wacha, 19th overall and James Ramsey, 23rd overall
2013 - Marco Gonzalez, 19th overall and Rob Kaminsky, 28th overall
2014 - Luke Weaver, 27th overall

"The one thing I’ve learned about Ned and Dayton both is they are as obsessed with winning as I am. All three of us have a real problem when we lose. Anyone who knows me knows that I’m not just committed to winning, I’m obsessed with winning." -David Glass

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Posted: 7/17/2014 10:44 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


I liked all of the picks that were good, and will turn out to be good.  I hated all of the others.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:06 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 



DonaldEldridge wrote:
bobellis75 wrote: So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
Oakland Athletics
2005 - Cliff Pennington, 21st overall
2006 - No 1st rd pick
2007 - James Simmons, 26th overall
2007 - No 1st rd pick
2008 - Jemile Weeks, 12th overall
2009 - Grant Green, 13th overall
2010 - Michael Choice, 10th overall
2011 - Sonny Gray, 18th overall
2012 - Addison Russell, 11th overall
2013 - Billy McKinney, 24th overall
2014 - Matt Chapman, 25th overall

Tampa Bay Rays
2005 - Wade Townsend, 8th overall
2006 - Evan Longoria, 3rd overall
2007 - David Price, 1st overall
2008 - Tim Beckham, 1st overall
2009 - LeVon Washinigton, 30th overall
2010 - Josh Sale, 17th overall
2011 -Taylor Guerrieri, 24th overall
2012 - Richie Shaffer, 25th overall
2013 - Nick Ciuffo, 21st overall
2014 - Casey Gillaspie, 20th overall

Minnesota Twins
2005 - Matt Garza, 25th overall
2006 - Chris Parmelee, 20th overall
2007 - Ben Revere, 28th overall
2008 - Aaron Hicks, 14th overall
2009 - Kyle Gibson, 22nd overall
2010 - Alex Wimmers, 21st overall
2011 - Levi Michael, 30th overall
2012 - Byron Buxton, 2nd overall
2013 - Kohl Stewart, 4th overall
2014 - Nick Gordon, 5th overall

Milwaukee Brewers
2005 - Ryan Braun, 5th overall
2006 - Jeremy Jeffress, 16th overall
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 7th overall
2008 - Brett lawrie, 16th overall
2009 - Eric Arnett, 16th overall
2010 - Dylan Covey, 14th overall
2011 - Jed Bradley, 15th overall and Taylor Jungmann, 12th overall
2012 - Victor Roache, 28th overall and Clint Coulter, 27th overall
2013 - No 1st rd pick
2014 - Kodi Medeiros, 12th overall

St. Louis Cardinals
2005 - Colby Ramus, 28th overall
2006 - Adam Ottavino, 20th overall
2007 - Peter Kozma, 18th overall
2008 - Brett Wallace, 13th overall
2009 - Shelby Miller, 19th overall
2010 - No 1st rd pick
2011 - Kolten Wong, 22nd overall
2012 - Michael Wacha, 19th overall and James Ramsey, 23rd overall
2013 - Marco Gonzalez, 19th overall and Rob Kaminsky, 28th overall
2014 - Luke Weaver, 27th overall
So, in other words, our results haven't been that dissimilar to those of other teams.

St. Louis is the outlier, but we've done better than Milwaukee, for example- Gordon is one of the best outfielders in baseball and a regular All-Star now; Hosmer is a major leaguer; Hoch is a major leaguer; Moose has performed in the majors; Colon is ready to be in the majors; Finnegan, Zimmer, Dozier are at or near the top of the system for prospects.  Milwaukee got a great player in Braun; a decent player in Lawrie; and a bunch of washouts, along with a few guys who are at or near the top of their system today. Tampa is similar, except they got two great players in Price and Longoria. But they've washed out otherwise, too.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:14 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 



hawkinmichigan wrote:
DonaldEldridge wrote:
bobellis75 wrote: So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
Oakland Athletics
2005 - Cliff Pennington, 21st overall
2006 - No 1st rd pick
2007 - James Simmons, 26th overall
2007 - No 1st rd pick
2008 - Jemile Weeks, 12th overall
2009 - Grant Green, 13th overall
2010 - Michael Choice, 10th overall
2011 - Sonny Gray, 18th overall
2012 - Addison Russell, 11th overall
2013 - Billy McKinney, 24th overall
2014 - Matt Chapman, 25th overall

Tampa Bay Rays
2005 - Wade Townsend, 8th overall
2006 - Evan Longoria, 3rd overall
2007 - David Price, 1st overall
2008 - Tim Beckham, 1st overall
2009 - LeVon Washinigton, 30th overall
2010 - Josh Sale, 17th overall
2011 -Taylor Guerrieri, 24th overall
2012 - Richie Shaffer, 25th overall
2013 - Nick Ciuffo, 21st overall
2014 - Casey Gillaspie, 20th overall

Minnesota Twins
2005 - Matt Garza, 25th overall
2006 - Chris Parmelee, 20th overall
2007 - Ben Revere, 28th overall
2008 - Aaron Hicks, 14th overall
2009 - Kyle Gibson, 22nd overall
2010 - Alex Wimmers, 21st overall
2011 - Levi Michael, 30th overall
2012 - Byron Buxton, 2nd overall
2013 - Kohl Stewart, 4th overall
2014 - Nick Gordon, 5th overall

Milwaukee Brewers
2005 - Ryan Braun, 5th overall
2006 - Jeremy Jeffress, 16th overall
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 7th overall
2008 - Brett lawrie, 16th overall
2009 - Eric Arnett, 16th overall
2010 - Dylan Covey, 14th overall
2011 - Jed Bradley, 15th overall and Taylor Jungmann, 12th overall
2012 - Victor Roache, 28th overall and Clint Coulter, 27th overall
2013 - No 1st rd pick
2014 - Kodi Medeiros, 12th overall

St. Louis Cardinals
2005 - Colby Ramus, 28th overall
2006 - Adam Ottavino, 20th overall
2007 - Peter Kozma, 18th overall
2008 - Brett Wallace, 13th overall
2009 - Shelby Miller, 19th overall
2010 - No 1st rd pick
2011 - Kolten Wong, 22nd overall
2012 - Michael Wacha, 19th overall and James Ramsey, 23rd overall
2013 - Marco Gonzalez, 19th overall and Rob Kaminsky, 28th overall
2014 - Luke Weaver, 27th overall
So, in other words, our results haven't been that dissimilar to those of other teams.

St. Louis is the outlier, but we've done better than Milwaukee, for example- Gordon is one of the best outfielders in baseball and a regular All-Star now; Hosmer is a major leaguer; Hoch is a major leaguer; Moose has performed in the majors; Colon is ready to be in the majors; Finnegan, Zimmer, Dozier are at or near the top of the system for prospects.  Milwaukee got a great player in Braun; a decent player in Lawrie; and a bunch of washouts, along with a few guys who are at or near the top of their system today. Tampa is similar, except they got two great players in Price and Longoria. But they've washed out otherwise, too.
Have to account for how high in the draft a team picked. We've produced a lot of major leaguers, but for how high they were drafted they are disappointing.

Also, how many other teams would Hosmer and Moustakas currently be major league players for? Hosmer would player for quite a few, but his job wouldn't be very secure. I suspect that Moustakas would be in AAA for most major league teams. Actually, if he had been our 3rd round pick instead of first round, he'd probably be in AAA for us as well.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:21 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 



DonaldEldridge wrote:
bobellis75 wrote: So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
Oakland Athletics
2005 - Cliff Pennington, 21st overall
2006 - No 1st rd pick
2007 - James Simmons, 26th overall
2007 - No 1st rd pick
2008 - Jemile Weeks, 12th overall
2009 - Grant Green, 13th overall
2010 - Michael Choice, 10th overall
2011 - Sonny Gray, 18th overall
2012 - Addison Russell, 11th overall
2013 - Billy McKinney, 24th overall
2014 - Matt Chapman, 25th overall

Tampa Bay Rays
2005 - Wade Townsend, 8th overall
2006 - Evan Longoria, 3rd overall
2007 - David Price, 1st overall
2008 - Tim Beckham, 1st overall
2009 - LeVon Washinigton, 30th overall
2010 - Josh Sale, 17th overall
2011 -Taylor Guerrieri, 24th overall
2012 - Richie Shaffer, 25th overall
2013 - Nick Ciuffo, 21st overall
2014 - Casey Gillaspie, 20th overall

Minnesota Twins
2005 - Matt Garza, 25th overall
2006 - Chris Parmelee, 20th overall
2007 - Ben Revere, 28th overall
2008 - Aaron Hicks, 14th overall
2009 - Kyle Gibson, 22nd overall
2010 - Alex Wimmers, 21st overall
2011 - Levi Michael, 30th overall
2012 - Byron Buxton, 2nd overall
2013 - Kohl Stewart, 4th overall
2014 - Nick Gordon, 5th overall

Milwaukee Brewers
2005 - Ryan Braun, 5th overall
2006 - Jeremy Jeffress, 16th overall
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 7th overall
2008 - Brett lawrie, 16th overall
2009 - Eric Arnett, 16th overall
2010 - Dylan Covey, 14th overall
2011 - Jed Bradley, 15th overall and Taylor Jungmann, 12th overall
2012 - Victor Roache, 28th overall and Clint Coulter, 27th overall
2013 - No 1st rd pick
2014 - Kodi Medeiros, 12th overall

St. Louis Cardinals
2005 - Colby Ramus, 28th overall
2006 - Adam Ottavino, 20th overall
2007 - Peter Kozma, 18th overall
2008 - Brett Wallace, 13th overall
2009 - Shelby Miller, 19th overall
2010 - No 1st rd pick
2011 - Kolten Wong, 22nd overall
2012 - Michael Wacha, 19th overall and James Ramsey, 23rd overall
2013 - Marco Gonzalez, 19th overall and Rob Kaminsky, 28th overall
2014 - Luke Weaver, 27th overall

I think that proves my point fairly well. Brewers have had Braun so far. Rays, Longo and Price (great duo there...those two alone make up for most of the other duds). And so on.....

The draft is a crap shoot. You just never know, no matter how great the scouts say they are, what the metrics/stats say, and so on....you can't possibly count on all or even a majority of your picks to pan out. It's one thing to dominate high school or college, another to carry that over to the minors, and another to make it all the way to the bigs with any great success.

So most GM's are terrible in the draft.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:24 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 



GregA wrote:
hawkinmichigan wrote:
DonaldEldridge wrote:
bobellis75 wrote: So what's the success rate of every other team? I mean to be honest, most prospects fail. Even highly touted guys often fall flat on their faces.

The real way to figure out any kind of success in the draft for KC would be to then stack them up against every other team's first rounders over that time frame. Or compare our picks to guys drafted within a certain number of draft slots every year. (as I would expect a team drafting 25th to have less success - in general - than a team picking in the top 10 every year).
Oakland Athletics
2005 - Cliff Pennington, 21st overall
2006 - No 1st rd pick
2007 - James Simmons, 26th overall
2007 - No 1st rd pick
2008 - Jemile Weeks, 12th overall
2009 - Grant Green, 13th overall
2010 - Michael Choice, 10th overall
2011 - Sonny Gray, 18th overall
2012 - Addison Russell, 11th overall
2013 - Billy McKinney, 24th overall
2014 - Matt Chapman, 25th overall

Tampa Bay Rays
2005 - Wade Townsend, 8th overall
2006 - Evan Longoria, 3rd overall
2007 - David Price, 1st overall
2008 - Tim Beckham, 1st overall
2009 - LeVon Washinigton, 30th overall
2010 - Josh Sale, 17th overall
2011 -Taylor Guerrieri, 24th overall
2012 - Richie Shaffer, 25th overall
2013 - Nick Ciuffo, 21st overall
2014 - Casey Gillaspie, 20th overall

Minnesota Twins
2005 - Matt Garza, 25th overall
2006 - Chris Parmelee, 20th overall
2007 - Ben Revere, 28th overall
2008 - Aaron Hicks, 14th overall
2009 - Kyle Gibson, 22nd overall
2010 - Alex Wimmers, 21st overall
2011 - Levi Michael, 30th overall
2012 - Byron Buxton, 2nd overall
2013 - Kohl Stewart, 4th overall
2014 - Nick Gordon, 5th overall

Milwaukee Brewers
2005 - Ryan Braun, 5th overall
2006 - Jeremy Jeffress, 16th overall
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 7th overall
2008 - Brett lawrie, 16th overall
2009 - Eric Arnett, 16th overall
2010 - Dylan Covey, 14th overall
2011 - Jed Bradley, 15th overall and Taylor Jungmann, 12th overall
2012 - Victor Roache, 28th overall and Clint Coulter, 27th overall
2013 - No 1st rd pick
2014 - Kodi Medeiros, 12th overall

St. Louis Cardinals
2005 - Colby Ramus, 28th overall
2006 - Adam Ottavino, 20th overall
2007 - Peter Kozma, 18th overall
2008 - Brett Wallace, 13th overall
2009 - Shelby Miller, 19th overall
2010 - No 1st rd pick
2011 - Kolten Wong, 22nd overall
2012 - Michael Wacha, 19th overall and James Ramsey, 23rd overall
2013 - Marco Gonzalez, 19th overall and Rob Kaminsky, 28th overall
2014 - Luke Weaver, 27th overall
So, in other words, our results haven't been that dissimilar to those of other teams.

St. Louis is the outlier, but we've done better than Milwaukee, for example- Gordon is one of the best outfielders in baseball and a regular All-Star now; Hosmer is a major leaguer; Hoch is a major leaguer; Moose has performed in the majors; Colon is ready to be in the majors; Finnegan, Zimmer, Dozier are at or near the top of the system for prospects.  Milwaukee got a great player in Braun; a decent player in Lawrie; and a bunch of washouts, along with a few guys who are at or near the top of their system today. Tampa is similar, except they got two great players in Price and Longoria. But they've washed out otherwise, too.
Have to account for how high in the draft a team picked. We've produced a lot of major leaguers, but for how high they were drafted they are disappointing.

Also, how many other teams would Hosmer and Moustakas currently be major league players for? Hosmer would player for quite a few, but his job wouldn't be very secure. I suspect that Moustakas would be in AAA for most major league teams. Actually, if he had been our 3rd round pick instead of first round, he'd probably be in AAA for us as well.
Agree with you on where they were drafted...which is why I said compare them either to other teams or just compare the players to others drafted around them. But it's still a crapshoot any way you slice it.

You could also make the argument that how many teams would have better developed a Hosmer or Moose? What if, say STL had drafted Hosmer. Would he be hitting .280 with 10 homers at the AS break? Who knows.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:37 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Drafted in the top 5 by these teams:

1. Luke Hochevar, KC - bust as SP, good set up man
2. Alex Gordon, KC - star
2. Mike Moustakas, KC - busting
3. Eric Hosmer, KC - mild disappointment
5. Bubba Starling, KC - busto
5. Kyle Zimmer, KC - good prospect

1. David Price, TB - superstar
1. Tim Beckham, TB - prospect
3. Evan Longoria, TB - superstar

2. Byron Buxton, Min - top prospect
4. Kohl Stewart, Min - prospect
5. Nick Gordon, Min - tbd prospect

5. Ryan Braun, Mil - superstar

LOL at thinking the A's or Cardinals would ever pick in the top 5.

ryansublett wrote: working counts is so overrated.

Last edited 7/17/2014 11:40 AM by mpf8888

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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:48 AM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Another example of what a crapshoot the draft is would just be to look at the history of first overall picks. All guys thought of as sure things.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_...all_draft_picks

Draft started in 1965...from 1965 to 2014 the first overall draft pick has produced 22 all-star players with those 50 picks. Not bad. Less than half though. And some of those all-stars are guys like Shawon Dunston (yeah...solid guy...but not a "stud" for his career). There are also names like Bryan Bullington, Paul Wilson, Matt Anderson littering this list.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:40 PM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Yep, this is what matters. You can't just compare team by team. It has to be evaluated based on how high the pick is. The Royals have probably had more top 5 picks than any team in the past 10 years and at least point really only have Gordon to show it
mpf8888 wrote: Drafted in the top 5 by these teams:

1. Luke Hochevar, KC - bust as SP, good set up man
2. Alex Gordon, KC - star
2. Mike Moustakas, KC - busting
3. Eric Hosmer, KC - mild disappointment
5. Bubba Starling, KC - busto
5. Kyle Zimmer, KC - good prospect

1. David Price, TB - superstar
1. Tim Beckham, TB - prospect
3. Evan Longoria, TB - superstar

2. Byron Buxton, Min - top prospect
4. Kohl Stewart, Min - prospect
5. Nick Gordon, Min - tbd prospect

5. Ryan Braun, Mil - superstar

LOL at thinking the A's or Cardinals would ever pick in the top 5.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 1:20 PM

Re: Royals Worst First Round Picks in Past Decade? 


Yeah I think you should look at the top 5 or 10, but if you're going to draw some kind of conclution, it needs to be the top picks from every year in the last decade. Then see how many total hits/misses/etc. Not just look at 5 teams.
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