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Royals 2013-2014 record?

  • RockyHawk
  • NW Arkansas Natural
  • 484 posts this site

Posted: 12/13/2013 12:10 AM

Royals 2013-2014 record? 


Barring any major moves, what record are we looking at? And does it get us to the playoffs?
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Posted: 12/13/2013 12:59 AM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


83-79.

No.
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Posted: 12/13/2013 5:45 AM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 



93-69. Yes
---------------------------------------------
--- RoyalsNation wrote:

83-79.

No.

---------------------------------------------
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  • Wardance
  • Wilmington Blue Rock
  • 113 posts this site
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Posted: 12/13/2013 6:20 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


75-87

No, Rotation not strong enough.

Unleashed 

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Posted: 12/13/2013 6:20 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


129 - 33

Yes
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Posted: 12/13/2013 8:20 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 



Wardance wrote: 75-87

No, Rotation not strong enough.
(-)Getz, (-)Frenchy, (-)Mendoza and you pick them 11 games worse? #Hater
Royals fan since '77'
Yankee hater since birth
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Posted: 12/13/2013 9:13 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


According to Steamer projections, we're about an 87 win team right now on paper. Adding Infante would make us an 88 win team. Detroit is a 92 win team on paper right now.


"Calculating Replacement Level

Until early 2013, it used to be that FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference both calculated WAR using different values for replacement level. That has since been changed, and both sites now calculate replacement level the same way:


This new unified replacement level is now set at 1,000 WAR per 2,430 Major League games, which is the number of wins available in a 162 game season played by 30 teams. Or, an easier way to put it is that our new replacement level is now equal to a .294 winning percentage, which works out to 47.7 wins over a full season."
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Posted: 12/13/2013 9:16 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


If we traded prospects for Jeff S, we'd probably add another 1.5 wins. With some luck, we could win the division with adding Infante and Jeff S and not losing any impact players.
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Posted: 12/13/2013 11:18 AM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


This administration is on record as saying that Hoch & Davis are still going to get a chance to start.  I can not choose a team that even makes that statement to finish any better than 81-81.  Hoping some moves are coming that do not involve voting Butler off the island.
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Posted: 12/13/2013 11:40 AM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


Assuming we stay pat for the rest of the off-season, I'm going to say 86 wins. I don't think this team as it is now is better than last year's, but it's certainly not worse. 

Now, I'm just pulling this out of my butt, but here's why I think that:

Negatives:
  • Losing Santana hurts. A lot.
  • Brett Hayes and that Pena kid are not going to match Kottaras' production from last year.
  • The bullpen will probably regress a bit.
  • We still have Nedly at the helm.

Positives:
  • Chris Getz isn't starting the year at 2B, and I'm assuming Bonifacio can put up better numbers than Ned's beloved.
  • Aoki > Francoeur
  • I think at least one of Gordon, Butler, or Moose will bounce back.
  • Ventura + Duffy > Davis + Mendoza

Of course, this is assuming that DM and Ned don't go full pants-on-head retarded and give both Davis and Hochevar spots in the rotation.
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  • Wardance
  • Wilmington Blue Rock
  • 113 posts this site
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Posted: 12/13/2013 1:00 PM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 



SmallBallKC wrote: Assuming we stay pat for the rest of the off-season, I'm going to say 86 wins. I don't think this team as it is now is better than last year's, but it's certainly not worse. 

Now, I'm just pulling this out of my butt, but here's why I think that:

Negatives:
  • Losing Santana hurts. A lot.
  • Brett Hayes and that Pena kid are not going to match Kottaras' production from last year.
  • The bullpen will probably regress a bit.
  • We still have Nedly at the helm.

Positives:
  • Chris Getz isn't starting the year at 2B, and I'm assuming Bonifacio can put up better numbers than Ned's beloved.
  • Aoki > Francoeur
  • I think at least one of Gordon, Butler, or Moose will bounce back.
  • Ventura + Duffy > Davis + Mendoza

Of course, this is assuming that DM and Ned don't go full pants-on-head retarded and give both Davis and Hochevar spots in the rotation.
Your correct in saying that Vargas will not produce like Santana. Davis and Hoch will probably make the rotation and Guthrie will take a step backwards, although there isn't much further he can go....He's Terrible!

The rotation:

Shields
Vargas
Guthrie
Hoch
Davis

Tell me this rotation wins more games then last season. Convince me, because I would love to be convinced.

Moore is on record saying, "at some point the DH position has to be a rotating position", meaning trading Butler. Unless you get a solid bat or a solid arm in return the move would be futile. The lineup still doesn't have a power bat in the middle. I'm sorry, but Gordon is NOT a power bat! Besides he performs better at the top of the lineup anyway. How many times has Ned tried to move Gordo down in the lineup only to have him struggle until he is back at the top of the rotation.

Look, I just don't see the step forward we were promised by DM. Nothing he has done this off-season says we are going for it in 2014. The "window" is already closing again with the loss of Santana and the lack of offense. Until DM is gone and a forward thinking GM is obtained, the Royals are pretenders. And I am a big Royals fan. I just don't see management making legitimate moves to get better. I think DM blew his wad last season convincing Glass that trading with Tampa was the right thing to do. I guess when Shields leaves after this season we will be looking at 2017 as the year we go for it all? And then 2020? And then 2023? When does it stop? When do we look at who is making bad decisions and say you have to go? When does Glass get serious about winning Championships? My guess.......NEVER!

MONEY. That's right dollar signs!

Unleashed 

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Posted: 12/13/2013 1:28 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


around 81-81 with the current roster. For all the expected improvements on offense, there's a guy or two who isn't a sure thing to match 2013. Not to mention that a lot of the 2014 offense will rely on a Hosmer continuing to produce instead of falling back to a 2012/13 rut

One thing left unmentioned when you mention the positives of dropping Mendoza? Chen's run in replacement of Mendoza cancelled out most of the negative value of Mendoza. Chendoza posted a 4.27 ERA in 30 starts, a bit better than Mendoza's 5.01 in 15 starts.
"We know now that we can compete. We don't think it, we know it. We've proved it" - Ned Yost
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Posted: 12/13/2013 1:35 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


BTW...how accurate were EBM & Wardance with their 2013 W/L predictions?
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Posted: 12/13/2013 1:58 PM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


I think the positives part of your argument is much stronger than negs. Santana's production is going to be the biggest hit, that and health. We were super healthy last year and we still need a move or two that insures against the loss of a key player for a period of time. Infante would do that. I also think the Royals I will trade for a Shark type pitcher.

PTP had a real interesting article today where the rosiest scenario actually turns out to be 96 wins....I think that's way high, 86 is more likely right now, but anyone expecting this team to suddenly collapse just because we lost one starting pitcher is going to have egg on their face....in some cases again.....I can hardly wait until the season ends to see how Royals Review spins it.....

My reasons. The center of gravity of the team is the bullpen and the defense. Neither is weaker, in fact Aoki makes the defense even stronger. Either Ellis or Infante will strengthen it further. The bullpen had a lot of players who had "bad years" for them. Herrera, Collins, Crow are examples. I expect Hoch and or Davis to spend the whole year in the pen, this will make the pen even stronger. We could trade two of these guys and still have a devastating pen.

As SBKC points out, Ventura and Duffy, who have number two ceilings, will be staring slot of Davis/Dozer starts over last year. Vargas is not going to be Santana, but he is a quite consistent 4.00 era over 200 innings.

The offense is better already due to addition by subtraction,,which was no small reason why the team was the best in the AL after the ASB. Aoki only makes it stronger. If we don't trade Butler for less than value, then his bounce will be significant to the offense.

So yea 86 wins right now, 90 or more with a shark / infante addition......




---------------------------------------------
--- SmallBallKC wrote:

Assuming we stay pat for the rest of the off-season, I'm going to say 86 wins. I don't think this team as it is now is better than last year's, but it's certainly not worse. 

Now, I'm just pulling this out of my butt, but here's why I think that:

Negatives:
  • Losing Santana hurts. A lot.
  • Brett Hayes and that Pena kid are not going to match Kottaras' production from last year.
  • The bullpen will probably regress a bit.
  • We still have Nedly at the helm.

Positives:
  • Chris Getz isn't starting the year at 2B, and I'm assuming Bonifacio can put up better numbers than Ned's beloved.
  • Aoki > Francoeur
  • I think at least one of Gordon, Butler, or Moose will bounce back.
  • Ventura + Duffy > Davis + Mendoza

Of course, this is assuming that DM and Ned don't go full pants-on-head retarded and give both Davis and Hochevar spots in the rotation.

---------------------------------------------

 

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Posted: 12/13/2013 2:18 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 



Royals1969 wrote: BTW...how accurate were EBM & Wardance with their 2013 W/L predictions?
about as accurate as most of the board's predictions of the W/L for 2012 and most previous years? Don't get cocky because you all were right once

The 1/2 did a lot more than I expected (Shields/Santana combined for a 4.24 ERA in 2012 and dropped that to 3.19 in 2013). A lot of the jump from 76 to 86 came right there.

Shields' ERA+ every year since 09: 105, 75, 134, 109, 131. So that number has jumped up or down by 25 points for 4 consecutive times. (I'm guessing this inconsistency will come up when the excuses start flowing about why KC can't re-sign Shields after 2014)

I'd imagine a sizable portion of the teams ability to repeat 86 will depend on if Shields can reproduce his 2013 (or not see his numbers drop to 2009/2012 levels).

But the other half of the reason for 86 wins is not coming back to KC and he's being replaced by the consistently below average pitching of Jason Vargas. Ouch.
"We know now that we can compete. We don't think it, we know it. We've proved it" - Ned Yost
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Posted: 12/13/2013 2:43 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


davis and mendoza made 39 starts. pitched over 200 innings in those starts. had almost a 5.50 ERA. the goal is not to replace Santana its to greatly improve on davidoza.

Last edited 12/13/2013 2:44 PM by jerdrew22

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Posted: 12/13/2013 2:46 PM

Re: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


78
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Posted: 12/13/2013 2:55 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


90
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Posted: 12/13/2013 3:02 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 


If the season started today, maybe 85.  I'll wait 3 more months before putting too much thought into it.



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Posted: 12/13/2013 3:08 PM

RE: Royals 2013-2014 record? 



jerdrew22 wrote: davis and mendoza made 39 starts. pitched over 200 innings in those starts. had almost a 5.50 ERA. the goal is not to replace Santana its to greatly improve on davidoza.
shouldn't the goal involve improving on the results of the 3 pitchers lost + Davis (4.19 ERA in 86 starts)?

Vargas' road ERA was in the high 4s for 3 of the last 4 years, his home ERAs are in the low 3s. So Vargas' AL ERA is 4.07, and I suspect he's gonna wind up around 4.15 or 4.25 in KC since Kauffman is more hitter friendly than Safeco/Anaheim.

So if Vargas checks in at 4.19, the other 53ish starts would need somebody to break out and put in a low 4s ERA or a 3s ERA to hit that mark.

You can't pick and choose which parts of the rotation you're gonna upgrade on when you have the guys who made over half of your starts leaving town.

One could also argue there'd be more of a positive impact with 2 above-average/3 average starters than 1 above-average/4 average starters too

(edit: just some totals for Vargas' road ERAs

Arlington: 4.45 in 11g/10 starts
Oakland: 3.35 in 9g/8 starts

The Cell: 6.45 in 4 starts
Kauffman: 5.31 in 3 starts
Cleveland: 1.93 in 2 starts
Detroit: 8.71 in 2 starts
Minnesota: 9.16 in 4 starts

Shields had terrible numbers at Kauffman pre-2013, 6.38 in 4 starts. His Kauffman ERA in 16 2013 starts was 4.37, his ERA on the road was 2.07. I'd imagine that the Vargas numbers will stabilize a bit. But it'll be interesting to see if much comes of the transition from Safeco/Oakland/Anaheim for most of the starts, to less pitcher friendly stadiums)
"We know now that we can compete. We don't think it, we know it. We've proved it" - Ned Yost

Last edited 12/13/2013 3:18 PM by EvilBadMadman

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