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Defensive stat question for the gallery
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Posted: 2/7/2013 10:49 AM
Defensive stat question for the gallery
For those out there who consider themselves saber experts, particularly with fielding stats, I need some help. How is it that Alcides Escobar went from having a very positive ratings in UZR goto very negative numbers from 2011 to 2012. What was it that drove this statistically? We spend a lot of time ripping DM about his lack of understanding of defensive stats, I agree with the assessment that we overvalue some defenders (Yuni) based on reputation. You can see the same kind of inconsistency during the career of Frank White with TZ. How does a skill which seemingly "never slumps" gyrate so wildly? Ozzie smith has the same gyration, (although all of his numbers are astronomically high).
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Posted: 2/7/2013 11:41 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
One note from Fangraphs:
"Since defensive statistics are still relatively new, they should not be taken as 100% dead accurate. Before drawing any conclusions about a player’s defense, look at a full three years of defensive data, drop the decimal points and take an average, and compare UZR scores with other defensive metrics (DRS, TZL, etc.). By taking a broader picture, you will help ensure that you’re not being over-confident or overstating a player’s defensive abilities."
Now...if we take that three years of defensive data as they recommend, looking at 2010-2012, Escobar has an average of under 1 (.533333), so let's just round it to 1.
Again...that's not great. According to their chart, a zero is average, while a +5 above average, +10 is great, +15 is gold glove, etc. So over those three years he's been average due to a fluctuation into the negative numbers (big time) last year. Before that he was average/above average in 2012 and damn near a gold glover in 2011.
It's not an exact science...but it's generally pretty close...
Couple of good reads on the topic:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/art icle/mike_silva_chronicles_part_1_uzr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense /uzr/
Last edited 2/7/2013 11:44 AM by bobellis75
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Posted: 2/7/2013 12:06 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
One the other issue could be the placement of Escobar and Moustakas. Escobar's value was down and Moose's was way up. It could be Moose was playing in and getting easier to field hits and Escobar had all the SOBs. Looking at just the raw numbers, Escobar didn't make as many plays last year and his numbers dropped. Why is just not known for sure.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
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Posted: 2/7/2013 12:09 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
TucsonRoyal wrote: One the other issue could be the placement of Escobar and Moustakas. Escobar's value was down and Moose's was way up. It could be Moose was playing in and getting easier to field hits and Escobar had all the SOBs. Looking at just the raw numbers, Escobar didn't make as many plays last year and his numbers dropped. Why is just not known for sure. Yeah this is a great example of how fielding numbers can fluctuate. Guys get measured on plays they make out of their typical zone on the field...if Moose was ranging over and making plays, meaning Escobar didn't have to cover so much ground, he would take a hit on some numbers. My eye tells me he's a hell of a shortstop. I've seen him make too many plays. I am betting his numbers bounce back.
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Posted: 2/7/2013 12:11 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
bobellis75 wrote:
TucsonRoyal wrote: One the other issue could be the placement of Escobar and Moustakas. Escobar's value was down and Moose's was way up. It could be Moose was playing in and getting easier to field hits and Escobar had all the SOBs. Looking at just the raw numbers, Escobar didn't make as many plays last year and his numbers dropped. Why is just not known for sure. Yeah this is a great example of how fielding numbers can fluctuate. Guys get measured on plays they make out of their typical zone on the field...if Moose was ranging over and making plays, meaning Escobar didn't have to cover so much ground, he would take a hit on some numbers.
My eye tells me he's a hell of a shortstop. I've seen him make too many plays. I am betting his numbers bounce back. That would make sense to me. He definitely passes the eye test. I'm more concerned with Hosmer's defense than Escobar. |
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Posted: 2/7/2013 1:53 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
This was my impression too, probably useful tool, but needs to be normalized over time. One thing it SHOULD be used to do is to alert you to put some discriminating eyes on a player and reevaluate reputation, what you think your eyes are telling you, and a declining player. All things im skeptical most teams do, but some are rapidly coming on line with the thinking....
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Posted: 2/7/2013 2:10 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
I know very little about defensive metrics. Just never had the time to dive in. But do I understand this correctly? If a ball is hit in or just out of a Player A's "range" and is fielded by Player B, then Player A is docked for not fielding said ball? If that's the case, that's a HUGE flaw, because no one knows if Player A would have fielded that ball had Player B not gotten to it first.
I would think there should be some adjustment when out is recorded, it doesn't count against a player's "chance in zone" or whatever. Maybe there is an adjustment in one of the formulas?
A 3B crossing in front of a SS is the classic example.
Last edited 2/7/2013 2:11 PM by guit145
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Posted: 2/7/2013 2:54 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
There's a count of balls in zone, and plays made. Then there's a number of out of zone plays made as well, which of course will be lower if the guy is surrounded by people with great range. I have a basic knowledge of the fielding stuff...I'm not expert...but I've seen many disclaimers attached to fielding metrics.
Again - I think a lot of the time they give a good reflection...I just don't buy that Escobar was massively below average last year.
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Posted: 2/7/2013 3:50 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
So are these "counting" stats? So the SS who plays behind a bunch of sinker ball pitchers looks like a better fielder?
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Posted: 2/7/2013 9:17 PM
Re: Defensive stat question for the gallery
Excellent thread. While I've become more knowledgable about offensive metrics lately (I'm old), I've been very hesitant about the defensive side. Anyone who tells me that Escobar is average to below average at SS needs better glasses.
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- wsmrgnthlr
- NW Arkansas Natural
- 476 posts this site
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Posted: 2/7/2013 10:21 PM
Re: Defensive stat question for the gallery
I think defensive metrics are largely inadequate. Once field f/x is implemented in all stadiums, there will be a definitive way to assess a defensive player's abilities. It will consider player positioning, batted ball speed and trajectory. These are all key elements that are currently missing in defensive metrics.
I think current metrics can be skewed by pitching staffs, scouting staffs, other defenders, and luck.
Also, UZR recommends using 3 years of data for an accurate measure, but I believe fWAR is calculated using only the current year's UZR.
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Posted: 2/8/2013 9:49 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
Am I the only one that thought Escobar LOOKED worse last year defensively? Noticeably more botched routine plays. Not nearly as many of those ridiculously rangy plays we saw in 2011. I wouldve arbitrarily rated him as elite in 2011 and average-above avg last year
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Posted: 2/8/2013 10:38 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
gilmeche55 wrote: Am I the only one that thought Escobar LOOKED worse last year defensively? Noticeably more botched routine plays. Not nearly as many of those ridiculously rangy plays we saw in 2011. I wouldve arbitrarily rated him as elite in 2011 and average-above avg last year I agree...he was off a little last year. But like you say - Elite in 2011 and still above average in 2012. Fangraphs has his UZR at -12 for 2012. Down from a 10.2 in 2011....that's a 22 point swing. According to their chart found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense /uzr/ (Scroll down a little bit) that means he went from "Great" to somewhere between "Poor" and "Awful". I say no way on that...that's nuts. He was not poor/awful. Not even close.
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Posted: 2/8/2013 10:47 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
gilmeche55 wrote: Am I the only one that thought Escobar LOOKED worse last year defensively? Noticeably more botched routine plays. Not nearly as many of those ridiculously rangy plays we saw in 2011. I wouldve arbitrarily rated him as elite in 2011 and average-above avg last year Escobar had 669 chances, 242 putouts, 408 assists, committed 19 errors last year. No way you saw and remembered enough of those plays to make any kind of meaningful evaluation from memory today.
Last edited 2/8/2013 10:47 AM by NoOutsToGo
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Posted: 2/8/2013 10:48 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
bobellis75 wrote:
I say no way on that...that's nuts. He was not poor/awful. Not even close. He wasn't that poor or awful. The biggest reason his UZR went down is that Moustakas had a great year next to him and took a lot of his opportunities away. |
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Posted: 2/8/2013 11:02 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a large portion of the Range Runs Above Average portion of UZR calculated by taking a league average? That could lead to some severe fluctuations if a couple of players had fantastic seasons. I haven't looked into that, but it certainly seems possible.
In short, he might actually be average/above average in terms of range, but UZR is interpreting him as well below due to some outliers skewing the data this year.
Or did the Royals just do crazy stuff with defensive shifts this year? I'm an out of market fan and don't get to watch many games in person, so I can't say for sure. TV isn't good at showing that, even if you pay close attention and watch every single play (which I don't). If a play is effected by a defensive shift, UZR ignores it. That usually isn't a ton of plays per year so it's tough to say that would have a huge effect, but it's possible if the Royals shifted more than usual.
Moose's newfound awesome range could be an explanation as well. Maybe it's all of these issues combining.
I dunno...all I can say for sure is that any one year of UZR data can be way off compared to a players actual fielding ability, and based on Escobar's defensive reputation and what he's shown in the past, what happened in 2012 is the exception. Specifically why that would be the case is open to debate.
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Posted: 2/8/2013 11:17 AM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
NoOutsToGo wrote:
bobellis75 wrote:
I say no way on that...that's nuts. He was not poor/awful. Not even close. He wasn't that poor or awful. The biggest reason his UZR went down is that Moustakas had a great year next to him and took a lot of his opportunities away. Yeah I know that...I just think that's a reason why the stat is flawed. He doesn't suck because the third baseman covers ground.
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Posted: 2/8/2013 12:27 PM
RE: Defensive stat question for the gallery
bobellis75 wrote:
NoOutsToGo wrote:
bobellis75 wrote:
I say no way on that...that's nuts. He was not poor/awful. Not even close. He wasn't that poor or awful. The biggest reason his UZR went down is that Moustakas had a great year next to him and took a lot of his opportunities away. Yeah I know that...I just think that's a reason why the stat is flawed. He doesn't suck because the third baseman covers ground. This. Go scroll watch some of the MLB video highlights for Moose. Almost every time you see Moose range far to his left....you also see Escobar behind him ranging right. Those are plays Escobar would have been forced to make in 2011. I agree Escobar was a little off last year. But still quite good. And Moose was incredible. |
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