It's obviously still early, and there may still be another move or two made (let's hope the addition of another starter *cough cough Marcum*), but I thought it would be interesting to hear some predictions on the Royals record for next year.

Predict the absolute best case scenario, worst case scenario, and the "realistic" scenario.

Best: 94-68 - Okay, pulling that completely out of my ass. Shields has a Cy Young type year, Santana rebounds to have one of his better years; Marcum signs and does great, and Guthrie puts up his usual numbers. Davis proves to be a "steal of the deal" and pans out to be a pretty solid starter. Hosmer and Moustakas improve SIGNIFICANTLY; everyone else is steady. Even Francoeur is "playable." Salvador has a solid full year as well and cements his way into being a legit top flight catcher in the MLB. Escobar also has a decent year with the bat again.

Worst: 74-88 - Shields comes over and pitches well, but Hosmer and Moustakas continue to disappoint. Gordon has a similar year as last, and the outfield combination of Cain/Francoeur disappoints offensively. Santana has an ERA in the mid-high 4's, and Guthrie/Davis do about the same as well. The addition of Shields adds a couple more wins, but the rotation still shows off its flaws. I could have made this scenario worst and said we would finish with only 65 wins, but I tried to make it a "realistic" worst case scenario.

Realistic: 83-79 - Shields is lights out as usual, and Hosmer/Moustakas have improved years in 2013. After all, Hosmer's BABIP was just .255 in 2012, so it's quite apparent he'll at least improve average wise. His power should increase as well. Santana rebounds and has an ERA in the 3.90-4.10 range. Guthrie/Davis do about the same...although one of the three will probably have an ERA in the low-mid 4 range. Fifth spot in the rotation is changed up with a few different pitchers consisting of Hochevar, Mendoza, Chen, Duffy, Paulino, etc.

Best: 86-76

Worst: 68-94

Realistic: 77-85

I'll go 82-80, with high hopes for 2014...

Best 102-60
Worst 62-100
Realistic 81-81

Best: Detroit has a few key injuries, Minnesota gets taken care of finally, Royals pitching takes a leap forward, and the KC youth comes on.

Worst: Detroit and Minnesota beat us like a drum, Chicago at least plays us even, Davis doesn't cut it as a starter, Guthrie wasn't really that good, Hochevar starts all season, we try going with six starters, Ned gets more confused, Perez gets injured, and Hosmer tries to hit home runs.

Realistic: Although many here think .500 is really good, it isn't, it's what you might call average. Realistic is average; Or better put, average is usually realistic.

RoyalMule wrote: Best: 86-76

Worst: 68-94

Realistic: 77-85

This is stupid. You really think next year's team is only 5 wins better than last year?

Best: 90-72

Worst: 76-86

Realistic: 85-77

I know this seems optimistic, but com'n. We improved FOUR rotations spots, at least 2 of them will prove to be significant, and all four could. We get a full year from Perez and hopefully Cain, and there is no way Hosmer and Frenchy can be worse than they were last year. The only player I see as possibly regressing is Escobar. Could they bomb again next year? Anything is possible. But there is no reason they should.

EDIT: I should say that these predictions do not account for injury, which is impossible to predict. Hopefully the tide will turn in our favor this year after being terrible to us last year.

Best: 87-75

Worst: 74-88

Realistic: 80-82

Best:  88-74 


Worst: 72-90 


Realistic:  83-79 



This is just totally my random prediction... I really feel like the best they could win (as assembled NOW) would be 85 games, then I added three wins because if they improve that much, why not a few more?  I did the same with the worst case scenario... I feel as if the worst really is around 75 wins total, but then I subtracted three because, well... They're the Royals. Also because that was the record last season. I set my realistic goal at their last winning season, which was ten years ago in 2003.

Best: 93-69. Moose, Hosmer improve significantly. Cain stays healthy. Hoch is traded. Shields is lights out and the rest of the starters are average or better. Butler and Gordon continue to produce.

Worst: 69-93. Hosmer and Moose don't improve. Butler has an off year. Shields sucks and Santana suck.

Realistic: 83-79. Improvement from Hosmer and Moose but they still don't get to their full potential. Shields, Guthrie, and Santana are solid. Butler and Gordon do their usual.

Best: 84-78  (2nd place - 6 games behind Detroit, miss Wild Card by 3 games)

Shields is solid. Guthrie provides a decent 190-200 Innings. The bullpen is solid again, Perez is healthy all year. Gordon has an MVP type season with Butler not far behind. 

Worst: 69-93  (4th place)

Shields shows wear and tear on his arm, barely making 20 starts. Santana has a Luke Hochevar type 5.50 ERA. Guthrie shows his age making KC regret the contract. Hosmer continues to flail away at pitches and barely has an OPS over .700, Gordon battles injuries and barely plays 100 games. Cain can't stay healthy. Francouer/Getz/Hayes have a .640 OPS over 800 PAs combined. A couple of guys in the pen(Collins, Herrera) have down years.


Realistic: 79-83 (3rd place)

Shields is solid but more a #2 than #1. Guthrie provides 180 innings of 4.50 ERA. Santana has a good game here or there but is inconsistent. Pen is solid. 2B & RF are liabilities. Gordon/Butler are solid as usual. Perez proves for the entire season to be the best all around catcher in the AL.

There's two more parts coming?

Best: 96-66
Worst: 76-86
Realistic: 86-76

Best 95-67
worst 70-92
my prediction/realistic 88-74 (2nd to Detroit)

Best: 87-75 - If the pitching comes together, and Hosmer and Moose bounce back, and Frenchy isn't a complete sinkhole in the #5 spot all year, then I think we have a chance to win 87 games, which would put us right in position for contention for playoffs.

Worst: 69-93 - Shields could implode/get injured, all of our starters could have the worst years of their careers, and so on, and so forth. Even so, I don't think this is anywhere close to being a 100-loss team.

Realistic: 82-80 - I think Hos and Moose will continue to progress as hitters, but I don't think either will break out this year. I think Shields will have a good year, and the rest of our starting rotation will be average to slightly below average. Jeff Francoeur will continue to be a sinkhole in the lineup. 2nd base will be largely unproductive. Our bullpen will continue to be a strength. All of these together puts us slightly above .500, I think.

I'll say 79 wins. DM's new rotation is a disappointment. Young lineup looks better and the bullpen is good.

Best 92-70 occurs if the 5 starters are all healthy all year and pitch better than their career norm's and the young guys all take a big step closer in living up to their potential and also stay relatively healthy.

Realistic 85-77 occurs if the five starters pitch to close to their career averages (with an improvement by the 5th starter whomever that may be) and Moose, Hosmer and Cain all take another step forward and Butler, Gordon, Sal and Escobar produce close to last years levels and pen stays consistent.

Worst- 73-89 occurs if the rotation has some long term injuries, Hosmer proves last year was not a fluke and the peices in the pen get sold off near deadlie because club is out of it.

Duraflame wrote: There's two more parts coming?

Awesome

92-70
84-78
76-86

TCreecy wrote: Best: 84-78  (2nd place - 6 games behind Detroit, miss Wild Card by 3 games)

Shields is solid. Guthrie provides a decent 190-200 Innings. The bullpen is solid again, Perez is healthy all year. Gordon has an MVP type season with Butler not far behind. 

Worst: 69-93  (4th place)

Shields shows wear and tear on his arm, barely making 20 starts. Santana has a Luke Hochevar type 5.50 ERA. Guthrie shows his age making KC regret the contract. Hosmer continues to flail away at pitches and barely has an OPS over .700, Gordon battles injuries and barely plays 100 games. Cain can't stay healthy. Francouer/Getz/Hayes have a .640 OPS over 800 PAs combined. A couple of guys in the pen(Collins, Herrera) have down years.


Realistic: 79-83 (3rd place)

Shields is solid but more a #2 than #1. Guthrie provides 180 innings of 4.50 ERA. Santana has a good game here or there but is inconsistent. Pen is solid. 2B & RF are liabilities. Gordon/Butler are solid as usual. Perez proves for the entire season to be the best all around catcher in the AL.

You think the best case scenario is 84 wins?

gilmeche55 wrote: I'll say 79 wins. DM's new rotation is a disappointment. Young lineup looks better and the bullpen is good.

What, exactly, was your expectation in one offseason?

greewe wrote:

RoyalMule wrote: Best: 86-76

Worst: 68-94

Realistic: 77-85

This is stupid. You really think next year's team is only 5 wins better than last year?

Best: 90-72

Worst: 76-86

Realistic: 85-77

I know this seems optimistic, but com'n. We improved FOUR rotations spots, at least 2 of them will prove to be significant, and all four could. We get a full year from Perez and hopefully Cain, and there is no way Hosmer and Frenchy can be worse than they were last year. The only player I see as possibly regressing is Escobar. Could they bomb again next year? Anything is possible. But there is no reason they should.

EDIT: I should say that these predictions do not account for injury, which is impossible to predict. Hopefully the tide will turn in our favor this year after being terrible to us last year.

I am sorry you disagree with my prediction.  I hope to avoid offending you in the future.