I think it vindicates GMDM to a small extend in that it confirms how steep the price for quality veteran SP was this off-season.  I viewed Myers as greater than d’Arnaud, but they are close to comparable.  I still do not like the Shields trade from the R’s point of view, and this is based entirely on a value per payroll restriction assessment over the next several years.  I am just curious if this pending trade is swaying anyone’s thought one way or the other on the board?

JayhawkAI3 wrote: If you look at this impending trade, the Greinke signing, and the Anibal Sanchez signing, one thing is perfectly clear. Acquiring quality pitching is extremely expensive. I mean Greinke got 6/147 and Sanchez got 5/80. Those are both ridiculously expensive/risky contracts to pitchers who both have career ERA's of 3.8. Don't get me wrong, Greinke is a nice pitcher, but he's not THAT good is he?

What stands out the most to me is that, we have essentially no shot at any quality free agent now or in the future. We are talking about trying to compete in a free agent market with a handful of teams that have 300% higher payroll than we do. It's really pretty silly to think we'll ever have a shot at guys like we've discussed in previous years such as Darvish, Greinke, etc.

MrMorden wrote: No. Toronto sees their opportunity in a down AL East. If Dickey helps them to the playoffs the next 3yrs (along with Johnson & Buehrle), this is a trade you make every day.

Yes, I'm pissed KC wasn't in on this.

Dickey just landed in FLA to undergo his physical with the Jays. Some of his 2-year, $25m extension with TOR will be a signing bonus for '13


Wow, speculation was that he might want more than what he was asking from the Mets.  What a deal for the BJ's!

JayhawkAI3 wrote: If you look at this impending trade, the Greinke signing, and the Anibal Sanchez signing, one thing is perfectly clear. Acquiring quality pitching is extremely expensive. I mean Greinke got 6/147 and Sanchez got 5/80. Those are both ridiculously expensive/risky contracts to pitchers who both have career ERA's of 3.8. Don't get me wrong, Greinke is a nice pitcher, but he's not THAT good is he?

What stands out the most to me is that, we have essentially no shot at any quality free agent now or in the future. We are talking about trying to compete in a free agent market with a handful of teams that have 300% higher payroll than we do. It's really pretty silly to think we'll ever have a shot at guys like we've discussed in previous years such as Darvish, Greinke, etc.

TompkinsIndustries wrote:

JayhawkAI3 wrote: If you look at this impending trade, the Greinke signing, and the Anibal Sanchez signing, one thing is perfectly clear. Acquiring quality pitching is extremely expensive. I mean Greinke got 6/147 and Sanchez got 5/80. Those are both ridiculously expensive/risky contracts to pitchers who both have career ERA's of 3.8. Don't get me wrong, Greinke is a nice pitcher, but he's not THAT good is he?

What stands out the most to me is that, we have essentially no shot at any quality free agent now or in the future. We are talking about trying to compete in a free agent market with a handful of teams that have 300% higher payroll than we do. It's really pretty silly to think we'll ever have a shot at guys like we've discussed in previous years such as Darvish, Greinke, etc.

Really good post.  I will add that there's a bit of a chicken/egg thing here.  The Shields deal almost certainly played a role in setting the market for the Dickey deal.

That said, the ridiculous scarcity of top-flight starting pitching makes it nearly impossible to determine what a pitcher is "worth" in trade or treasure.  It truly is as simple as the old adage:  "worth what someone will pay."

Regarding the Shields price, I do still think that there should have been a better deal out there for the Royals.  But those who insist on calling it somekind of meathead disaster are being pretty stubborn.  The Royals paid a dear price....as has everyone else who's gone after a 1/2 starter this winter.

Gbwoy wrote:

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--- jerdrew22 wrote:

I am one that want the royals to play meaningful games in sept.
Maybe our definition of meaningful games is different. I don't
think we have to make the playoffs for this to be a good trade.
If we win 89 games and miss the playoffs by 2 games, I will be
satisfied. I will be disappointed, but understand that only 5 teams
get there. With NY, Boston, Texas, the Angels, and Det all have
a big advantage over us.

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I don't think we are an 89 win team currently. If this trade had turned us into one, I wouldn't hate it as much as I do. But we aren't even talking about similar things really. I want the Royals to have a roster that, when you look at it on paper, you don't feel its at all a stretch to say they're a 90 win team. You EXPECT them to win 90. You feel they underachieved if they don't. That's my definition of a contender.

Yes, its tough to make the playoffs. Its even tougher to be in the running on a year to year basis. But there is no reason the Royals shouldn't be able to give us more than just a 2 year window with a hope to back into the playoffs if Detroit underachieves duringg that timespan. I want to beat Detroit outright, and I don't think that's an unrealistic goal considering how much higher we've drafted than them over the past 7 years.

Please don't take it personally, I don't mean it that way. I like you as a poster.

I think it was a pretty even trade as far as prospects given up - D'Arnoud plays a higher profile position, but we both gave up our best hitting and best pitching prospects for a front of the rotation pitcher, we also got Davis back, but gave up a better overall prospect in Myers.

If you want my opinion (which you all do or you wouldn't be creeping around here) I think Shields in the AL Central will be better in 2013 than Dickey in the AL East.