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Are Mavs really much better?

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Posted: 7/18/2014 9:56 PM

Are Mavs really much better? 


A quick hitter showing advanced stats breakdown by ESPN Dallas.

The kudos have come from far and wide for the work of the Dallas Mavericks’ front office this summer.

The popular belief is that the two major moves the Mavs made this summer -- the trade for center Tyson Chandler and signing of small forward Chandler Parsons in restricted free agency -- could push Dallas from fighting for an eighth seed to the middle of the West playoff pack.

Well, according to a loose application of one advanced statistic, the Mavs have actually taken a significant step back with their summer remodeling. The total win shares from last season’s Dallas roster equaled 48.3, just a fraction of a win shy of their actual total of 49. Last season’s total win shares from the 13 players on the Mavs’ roster right now: 43.7.

Just the stats:
2014-15 MAVS WIN SHARES
Dirk Nowitzki: 10.9
Jose Calderon: 6.3
Brandan Wright: 5.1
Monta Ellis: 4.9
Samuel Dalembert: 4.9
Shawn Marion: 4.3
Vince Carter: 4.3
DeJuan Blair: 3.4
Jae Crowder: 2.3
Wayne Ellington: 0.7
Bernard James: 0.1
Ricky Ledo: 0.0
Shane Larkin: -0.1
Gal Mekel: -0.4
Total: 48.3

CURRENT MAVS WIN SHARES FROM 2013-14
Dirk Nowitzki: 10.9
Chandler Parsons: 7.6
Brandan Wright: 5.1
Tyson Chandler: 4.9
Monta Ellis: 4.9
Richard Jefferson: 2.7
Jae Crowder: 2.3
Raymond Felton: 2.2
Rashard Lewis: 1.7
Devin Harris: 1.6
Greg Smith: 0.2
Ricky Ledo: 0.0
Gal Mekel: -0.4
Total: 43.7

[continue reading @ESPN Dallas]

keep the fires lit

Last edited 7/18/2014 9:56 PM by JeffAtDeepEllum

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Posted: 7/18/2014 9:59 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


get ready to get bombarded

this is not what some fans want to hear LOL!
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Posted: 7/18/2014 9:59 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


troll.gif
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Posted: 7/18/2014 9:59 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Stop reading here
"...according to a loose application of one advanced statistic..."
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:01 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Should have stopped at
"Started by
JeffAtDeepEllum"
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:01 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Meaningless rolleyes
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:02 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Jose Calderon was so much better than people here will ever give him credit for.  The misguided criticism makes me sick, really.  I heard Fish talking on the radio the other day about how Calderon's D broke down the Mavs in the playoffs.  Calderon actually stepped up his D quite well in the playoffs and Dirk got eaten alive by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw.  Guess that's not a popular thing to say on the radio about how things really happened.

keep the fires lit

Last edited 7/18/2014 10:03 PM by JeffAtDeepEllum

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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:02 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 



realdeal17 wrote: get ready to get bombarded

this is not what some fans want to hear LOL!
Its last years stupid formula stats,  we won't know if worse or better til April.
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:02 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


so you're saying they'll be median? we've heard that story before.
Dallas by birth Maverick by choice #MFFL
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:11 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 



a lot depends on how much of a bounce-back year Chandler has

he had winshares of
9.4
9.5
9.3
the previous 3 years.

Not out of the question. Especially in a contract year and assuming he doesn't break his leg again

but yeah losing Carter hurts a lot.
____________________________________________________________________
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:17 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 





---------------------------------------------
--- JeffAtDeepEllum wrote:

Jose Calderon was so much better than people here will ever give him credit for.  The misguided criticism makes me sick, really.  I heard Fish talking on the radio the other day about how Calderon's D broke down the Mavs in the playoffs.  Calderon actually stepped up his D quite well in the playoffs and Dirk got eaten alive by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw.  Guess that's not a popular thing to say on the radio about how things really happened.

---------------------------------------------

Calderon was disappointing. No playmaking ability. Had to be pushed to be aggressive with his shot. Awful defensive player, one of the worst I have ever seen in the NBA. I mean the guy was a green light for anyone who had any ability to get to the rim in a one-on-one situation. Not many players can just get blown by like that.

My lasting memory for Jose will be the short jump shot in game 5 of the San Antonio series, within the last couple of minutes, wide open, clanks the FRONT of the rim. There's too many horrible defensive plays from him, for one to even stand out.

Last edited 7/18/2014 10:20 PM by VintagePeja

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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:22 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 



VintagePeja wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- JeffAtDeepEllum wrote:

Jose Calderon was so much better than people here will ever give him credit for.  The misguided criticism makes me sick, really.  I heard Fish talking on the radio the other day about how Calderon's D broke down the Mavs in the playoffs.  Calderon actually stepped up his D quite well in the playoffs and Dirk got eaten alive by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw.  Guess that's not a popular thing to say on the radio about how things really happened.

---------------------------------------------

Calderon was disappointing. No playmaking ability. Had to be pushed to be aggressive with his shot. Awful defensive player, one of the worst I have ever seen in the NBA. I mean the guy was a green light for anyone who had any ability to get to the rim in a one-on-one situation. Not many players can just get blown by like that.

My lasting memory for Jose will be the short jump shot in game 5 of the San Antonio series, within the last couple of minutes, wide open, clanks the FRONT of the rim.
Mine will be Calderon finding option #3. perfectly executing the play set up by Coach C, delivering right on time to Vince Carter's wheelhouse for a game winning stunner.  And Jet admiring from afar how brilliantly and cool-handedly Jose executed.

keep the fires lit
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:25 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Don't you have a Minnesota board to troll?
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:28 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


JADE is still salty because Houston didn't match. Haha
"it's a joke how good this guy is"- JVG on Dirk Nowitzki
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:32 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 





---------------------------------------------
--- JeffAtDeepEllum wrote:


VintagePeja wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- JeffAtDeepEllum wrote:

Jose Calderon was so much better than people here will ever give him credit for.  The misguided criticism makes me sick, really.  I heard Fish talking on the radio the other day about how Calderon's D broke down the Mavs in the playoffs.  Calderon actually stepped up his D quite well in the playoffs and Dirk got eaten alive by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw.  Guess that's not a popular thing to say on the radio about how things really happened.

---------------------------------------------

Calderon was disappointing. No playmaking ability. Had to be pushed to be aggressive with his shot. Awful defensive player, one of the worst I have ever seen in the NBA. I mean the guy was a green light for anyone who had any ability to get to the rim in a one-on-one situation. Not many players can just get blown by like that.

My lasting memory for Jose will be the short jump shot in game 5 of the San Antonio series, within the last couple of minutes, wide open, clanks the FRONT of the rim.
Mine will be Calderon finding option #3. perfectly executing the play set up by Coach C, delivering right on time to Vince Carter's wheelhouse for a game winning stunner.  And Jet admiring from afar how brilliantly and cool-handedly Jose executed.

---------------------------------------------
Hahaha!

Nobody remembers the pass, because it was Vince's ballsy decision to pump fake and somehow remain in bounds to get the shot off that was so incredible. That was all Vince. Bigger loss than Jose, in my opinion.
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:35 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


I'm still worried about our backcourt though. Harris/Felton is very average. The only good thing about this is they got to get rid of Calderon's contract.

I think Carter is so much better than Jefferson.

Blair=Lewis. Offense: Lewis > Blair. Defense: Blair > Lewis

Parsons>Marion. I love Trix but age caught up to him. Now we get a younger player in Parsons who can score15-20 points regularly. Just not sure about how he does against the elite SFs, Lebron, KD, Carmelo and even Kawhi.

Tyson is obviously better than Dalembert.

Hoping for guys like Ellis, Lewis, Harris to really work on their defense.

Also, the fact is we still haven't replaced Jet's production for 2 years now. If we really want to go far, we need a bench guy like him.

Last edited 7/18/2014 10:36 PM by ridirkulous86

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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:39 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Win shares over-rated...because it is relative to role and team chemistry mix, ALL of which changes every time you make a change in the roster for any reason, suspension, injury, trade, whatever...the individual stat is shifted by the collective, so basically the ENTIRE team has as much say in WS as the individual player...

,..Sooooooooo...

All WS tells you is sort of how the player fit the determined role on the current makeup, with the current coaching philosophy/personality/leadership style/style,of play, of the current team configuration he was on at the current time...and EVERY year all that changes on EVERY team, making it a largely irrelevant stat for year to year and team to team transposition. Yawn.

Team is better and more competitive... Let's stop this ridiculous nay-saying and just watch the team next year.
Glad to have Parsons

Last edited 7/19/2014 8:01 AM by NCTarheel2000

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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:41 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


I saw this too and I'm probably the biggest advocate around here of using win shares and WS/48 as the primary gauge of relative overall quality. I performed the same experiment myself a few days ago and saw the same conclusion.

Where this is misleading is because WS are a reflection of PT and injuries can hurt overall WS. Carter, Blair, Marion, Dalembert and Calderon didn't miss ANY significant time due to injuries last year while Chandler, Wright, Lewis, Harris and Smith missed significant chunks (in Smith's case almost all of the season). Even Parsons and Felton missed more games than any of those players we lost. Jefferson was fully healthy, but on the worst team in the West, and team performance impacts overall WS, which is also why this is hard to gauge. 

While you can say "well, injuries are a real factor" - yes, that's true, but that doesn't tell you how the minutes will be redistributed and you're comparing 19831 MP last year on the Mavs to 19017 MP by the incoming Mavs team (that is still presumably missing a player). That's 800 minutes of gameplay that will have to be redistributed that went unaccounted for. Say those 800 missing minutes go to Brandan Wright, subbing for an injured Chandler: there's another 3.78 WS right there.

So I think the problem is you have to use stats in their proper context. We know injuries are a reality but we can also trust that our training staff and our coach's minutes management have a damn stellar record when 37 and 38 year olds can play almost every game.

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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:54 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 



JeffAtDeepEllum wrote: Jose Calderon was so much better than people here will ever give him credit for.  The misguided criticism makes me sick, really.  I heard Fish talking on the radio the other day about how Calderon's D broke down the Mavs in the playoffs.  Calderon actually stepped up his D quite well in the playoffs and Dirk got eaten alive by Splitter/Duncan/Diaw.  Guess that's not a popular thing to say on the radio about how things really happened.
I will attempt to be a relative voice of reason that Jade desires....despite popular opinion (possibly even my own)...

You are correct in staying that Calderon was better than people give him credit for.  He outplayed his contract last season (at least in my perspective) which is why the mavs chose to move him for a better commodity/contract (Tyson).  In my opinion Calderon did improve his defense in the playoffs...I am not saying that he was a beneficial factor on the defensive end of the court against the Spurs BUT he did seem to provide better defense than during the regular season.  While there is no denying he was a defensive liability he did provide amazing floor spacing (since there is no arguing he is one of the best 3pt shooters in the league).  

My argument to you Jade is whether you can really argue that getting rid of Calderon was not worth the financial flexibility and the improvement in the center position?  I don't believe you will argue Tyson is not an improvement over Daly.  And beyond that we only gave up a 2nd round pick (and a shitty PG)...you can argue the semantics about that 2nd round pick but while you do remember everyone was ecstatic when we drafted CJ Fair thinking he was the second coming.... and now we realize he sucks and there was a reason he was a late second round pick.
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Posted: 7/18/2014 10:55 PM

Re: Are Mavs really much better? 


Still short one player also. Fourteen on the old roster. Only thirteen on the new one.


Failed troll attempt...
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