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Bill James 2013 Indians Line up

Posted: 12/29/2012 12:13 AM

Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


.279 .342 .416 Cabrera (16 HR/12 SB)
.279 .344 .379 Brantley (7 HR/19 SB)
.231 .336 .463 Reynolds (32 HR / 5 SB)
.256 .362 .458 Swisher (25 HR / 2 SB )
.274 .351 .429 Kipnis (18 HR/28 SB)
.262 .310 .433 Chisenhall (18 HR / 3 SB)
.261 .383 .476 Santana (25 HR / 4 SB)
.267 .300 .409 Aviles (13 HR / 13 SB) (DH)
.246 .319 .386 Stubbs (16 HR/ 33 SB)

Team Average:

2013 Projected: .262/.339/.427 170 HR / 119 SB
2012 Real Total: .251/ .324/.381 136 HR / 110 SB

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Posted: 12/29/2012 1:06 AM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


Interesting, somewhat encouraging.
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Posted: 12/29/2012 1:15 AM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


170 HRs would have put the Indians 12th in Baseball last year (25th)
.262 BA would have put the Indians 9th in Baseball last year (18th)
119 SB would have put the Indians 10th in Baseball last year (12th)
.339 OBP would have put the Indians 1st in Baseball last year (11th)
.427 SLG would have put the Indians 7th in Baseball last year (25th)

the only other teams in Baseball who could say that last year is the LA Angels. and here i remember some toolbag trolls attempting to tell me (and failing) that the offense wasn't vastly improved.
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Posted: 12/29/2012 5:04 AM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


Those all seem attainable- which of course, if they were determined using a formula they damn well should be. Kipnis' projection looks most encouraging, wonder if he can't better that with a full season of bigleague ball under his belt. Chisenhall, Reynolds and Stubbs are the biggest wild cards in those projections. Can Chisenhall hit lefties enough to get the ABs to put up those 18 HRs? Or hit .260? Can he gain consistency if he ends up sitting against most lefties in favor of Aviles? Can Stubbs get back to driving the baseball, and can Reynolds hit .231? Historically they have shown they can, and maybe Im jaded, but I can't really expect best-case scenario with those two. I can't even expect them to maintain, so I guess I just have to see what happens.
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Posted: 12/29/2012 1:47 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


The thing that scares me is Stubbs and his .541 OPS vs. RHP last year:

http://www.baseball-reference....ar=2012&t=b

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Posted: 12/29/2012 2:00 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


For Stubbs is there any data as to his performance against RH power pitchers v. the softer throwers?  I don't care how good he is on defense, you need to consider at least a partial platoon to try to mitigate the damage he will be doing at the plate.
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Posted: 12/29/2012 2:07 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


^ +1
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Posted: 12/29/2012 2:45 PM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


I expect more from Kipnis and Cabrera
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Posted: 12/29/2012 4:34 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


Normally I could see that happening but since we have not had 4 outfielders on this team all be at least league average for the last 10-15 years I will not hold my breath waiting for this to happen.

Result Stubbs plays everyday in CF in 2013 due to whoever is the 4th outfielder is a worse offensive option than Stubbs is JMHO.
CalBuckeyeRob wrote: For Stubbs is there any data as to his performance against RH power pitchers v. the softer throwers?  I don't care how good he is on defense, you need to consider at least a partial platoon to try to mitigate the damage he will be doing at the plate.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 12:34 AM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


Brantley
Cabrera
Kipnis
Swisher
Santana
Reynolds
Chisenhall
Aviles
Stubbs.

Brantley learned how to walk towards the end of last season so I could see his obp eeking up a tad this year. Not a great leadoff but ok.

Kip should be better than these projections to earn a shot at the 3 hole. Would almost like to see Santana there being a switch with his obp being the highest on the team and more power than Kip.

If our lowest avg is 231 but hits 30+ homers I'd be freaking thrilled.

Add another sp and I'd be ok with the offseason.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 9:29 AM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 



Zorik19 wrote: Brantley
Cabrera
Kipnis
Swisher
Santana
Reynolds
Chisenhall
Aviles
Stubbs.

Brantley learned how to walk towards the end of last season so I could see his obp eeking up a tad this year. Not a great leadoff but ok.

Kip should be better than these projections to earn a shot at the 3 hole. Would almost like to see Santana there being a switch with his obp being the highest on the team and more power than Kip.

If our lowest avg is 231 but hits 30+ homers I'd be freaking thrilled.

Add another sp and I'd be ok with the offseason.
If you look at Brantley's track record in the minors, he walked more than he struck out every single season.

Brantley in the minors

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cg i?id=brantl001mic
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Posted: 12/30/2012 10:52 AM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 



DCTribefan wrote:
Zorik19 wrote: Brantley
Cabrera
Kipnis
Swisher
Santana
Reynolds
Chisenhall
Aviles
Stubbs.

Brantley learned how to walk towards the end of last season so I could see his obp eeking up a tad this year. Not a great leadoff but ok.

Kip should be better than these projections to earn a shot at the 3 hole. Would almost like to see Santana there being a switch with his obp being the highest on the team and more power than Kip.

If our lowest avg is 231 but hits 30+ homers I'd be freaking thrilled.

Add another sp and I'd be ok with the offseason.
If you look at Brantley's track record in the minors, he walked more than he struck out every single season.

Brantley in the minors

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cg i?id=brantl001mic
2011: Brantley had 34 BB to 76 K
2012: Brantley had 53 BB to 56 K 

If he could build on that and bring his Major League BB:K ratio in line with his Minor League history it would go a long way in cementing him in the leadoff role. 

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Posted: 12/30/2012 10:53 AM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


James is far more bullish, esp on Santana, than I am.

2012 OPS....career OPS...James projection.

Santana...785...806...859
Stubbs.....610...698...705
Aviles.......663...715...709
Reynolds...763...807...799
Kipnis.......714...738...780

To hit James projections, all five have to have HUGE jumps in performance over 212. Santana and Kip have to perform high above anything they have ever done in MLB. Stubbs and Aviles have to return to career numbers that they attained mainly in extreme hitters parks.

Aint gonna happen. We need another bat.

Last edited 12/30/2012 11:21 AM by CATS44

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Posted: 12/30/2012 2:49 PM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


We need a good starting pitcher WAY more than we need another bat
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Posted: 12/30/2012 3:32 PM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


James is very optimistic on Santana... Although he projects numbers much like many of us hoped he would develop.

Would like to see more from Kipnis and Chiz.

As for what the Tribe needs, let's face it - they need another SP (preferably a lefty) AND another OF. Best method of acquisition might have been trading Cabrera, but that ship has likely passed.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 3:38 PM

Re: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


The Santana numbers are not as optimistic as you all are saying.

Basically, he has him returning to the isolated power levels he had before last year and maintaining his decreased k rate.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 5:05 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 




---------------------------------------------
--- Swisher33OSU wrote:

170 HRs would have put the Indians 12th in Baseball last year (25th)
.262 BA would have put the Indians 9th in Baseball last year (18th)
119 SB would have put the Indians 10th in Baseball last year (12th)
.339 OBP would have put the Indians 1st in Baseball last year (11th)
.427 SLG would have put the Indians 7th in Baseball last year (25th)


---------------------------------------------

This is consistent with my experience of the James projections. They just seem awfully optimistic.

Zeroing in on the OBP one for a second - first in all of baseball? Really? Actually, I'd be curious to hear where that .339 projection would rank us in his projections for 2013. I'd be surprised if it was number 1, so is he projecting offensive improvement across the board for MLB?
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Posted: 12/30/2012 6:00 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


.339 would have been first in baseball in 2012. cards were at .338.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/t...ePct/order/true
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Posted: 12/30/2012 6:41 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


It looks to me like that .339 is the starting lineup OBP, not the entire team OBP. Big difference.

OTOH, that 170 HR's is also the starting line up total.  The team total would be even higher.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 7:14 PM

RE: Bill James 2013 Indians Line up 


I believe that these are what he is projecting as the team totals. If you add up his projected starting lineup, it only comes to 152 HR's.

I am very optimistic that the hitting will be very good this season, since the lineup will be more balanced. However, I do not see them going in to the season with Aviles as the DH. 
AustinTribeFan wrote: It looks to me like that .339 is the starting lineup OBP, not the entire team OBP. Big difference.

OTOH, that 170 HR's is also the starting line up total.  The team total would be even higher.
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