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Tribe drafting

Posted: 11/25/2012 8:52 AM

Tribe drafting 


Interesting note from Hoynes this am "In those 15 years (1998-2012), they didn't have a first-round pick in two years and had just three picks in the top 10 of the first round: Sowers, Drew Pomeranz (No. 5, 2010) and Francisco Lindor (No. 8, 2011)."

We blast the drafts and with good cause but would have thought they had higher picks than this. When you get past the top half a dozen players its very hard if not impossible to say who will do well and who will  not.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 1:29 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 


Yet somehow other organizations seem to successfully draft and develop impact players outside the top 10 picks.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 2:02 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote: Yet somehow other organizations seem to successfully draft and develop impact players outside the top 10 picks.
But the question is were those guys sure things or close to sure things at the time they were picked?  Really and truthfully especially in the MLB draft, you're drafting potential more than anything especially after the top few picks.  For every first round pick that's a miss, you'll have several later round picks that become star players.  Everyone is quick to point out the first round failures of this team when the success rate of MLB first round picks isn't anywhere near as high as it is in the NBA or NFL.  Now I'm not saying this organization has simply been the victim of bad luck, but some of the drafting process is based on luck and if the Indians had gotten lucky with a couple of lower round picks during the last 15 years, the scouting department's track record would look a little better.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 2:31 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



BrianBell wrote:
CalBuckeyeRob wrote: Yet somehow other organizations seem to successfully draft and develop impact players outside the top 10 picks.
But the question is were those guys sure things or close to sure things at the time they were picked?  Really and truthfully especially in the MLB draft, you're drafting potential more than anything especially after the top few picks.  For every first round pick that's a miss, you'll have several later round picks that become star players.  Everyone is quick to point out the first round failures of this team when the success rate of MLB first round picks isn't anywhere near as high as it is in the NBA or NFL.  Now I'm not saying this organization has simply been the victim of bad luck, but some of the drafting process is based on luck and if the Indians had gotten lucky with a couple of lower round picks during the last 15 years, the scouting department's track record would look a little better.
If drafting is just a matter of luck, then fire all the scouts and the people involved in the process and just pick from the Baseball America list.  Because whatever they have been doing for the past 15 years is below random chance results.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 2:45 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 


I was looking at the Yankees last 10 years of drafting player's and it doesn't look any better then the Indians drafting results... There are some teams that draft well and other teams that miss the mark... I do think it's based on luck, Cleveland would have a better chance at drafting pitching in the first 10 rounds and then pick position player's.... I like the Idea of picking the best overall draft picks, but after the first couple of rounds you are just playing the lottery and hoping your numbers come in!!!
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Posted: 11/25/2012 3:16 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote:
BrianBell wrote:
CalBuckeyeRob wrote: Yet somehow other organizations seem to successfully draft and develop impact players outside the top 10 picks.
But the question is were those guys sure things or close to sure things at the time they were picked?  Really and truthfully especially in the MLB draft, you're drafting potential more than anything especially after the top few picks.  For every first round pick that's a miss, you'll have several later round picks that become star players.  Everyone is quick to point out the first round failures of this team when the success rate of MLB first round picks isn't anywhere near as high as it is in the NBA or NFL.  Now I'm not saying this organization has simply been the victim of bad luck, but some of the drafting process is based on luck and if the Indians had gotten lucky with a couple of lower round picks during the last 15 years, the scouting department's track record would look a little better.
If drafting is just a matter of luck, then fire all the scouts and the people involved in the process and just pick from the Baseball America list.  Because whatever they have been doing for the past 15 years is below random chance results.
That's not what I said.  I said SOME of the draft process is based on getting lucky especially in the later rounds.  That's the case in most sports.  Otherwise Albert Pujols would have been the 1st overall pick in the year he was drafted in the MLB draft and Tom Brady would have been drafted 1st overall in the he was drafted in the NFL draft.  This is also why I said the scouting department is still at fault to an extent, but getting lucky on a couple of picks in the later rounds of the draft makes the scouting department look a little better.  Fact is the Indians scouting department has still not been that great and even if they had gotten a little lucky with some later round picks, their overall body of work still wouldn't be that great.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 3:21 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



casper18837 wrote: I was looking at the Yankees last 10 years of drafting player's and it doesn't look any better then the Indians drafting results... There are some teams that draft well and other teams that miss the mark... I do think it's based on luck, Cleveland would have a better chance at drafting pitching in the first 10 rounds and then pick position player's.... I like the Idea of picking the best overall draft picks, but after the first couple of rounds you are just playing the lottery and hoping your numbers come in!!!
If you are playing the lottery then why does the team waste picks on:

1)  Catchers before about round 30.  You can always pick up the Henry Blanco, Mike Redmond types out of the free agent pool.  Just take a couple college seniors with a bit of pop late, give them bus fare, and hope and sign a bunch of guys from Latin America that play the position.
2)  Soft throwing pitchers.  Just take the hardest throwing pitcher available with every pick.  I don't care if they throw every other pitch in the stands.  You have years to teach them how to throw strikes or other pitches.  If they fail, well so do the finesse guys that top out at 87.
3)  OFs without a power component.  If this is simply a numbers game, draft 5-7 corner OFs every year with power skills even if they do nothing else.  If one every 2 years makes it, you have done more than Cleveland is doing now in filling those spots.   

Also draft as many guys recovering from TJ surgery as possible.  They have already got it out of the way and you always baby new pitchers anyway.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 3:21 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 


The Bankee$$$ don't need to rely on the draft because there draft is the free agent market. First off most free agents, if the yankees are looking for something to enhance there all-star lineup they just get what they need.  Most players won't reject the yankees.  In Cleveland, most players won't play here; unless the BIG BUCK are offered and even then they might not come here!
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Posted: 11/25/2012 3:46 PM

RE: Tribe drafting 


A couple much more appropriate teams to think about are Tampa and Pittsburgh, both have recent success and both have long losing records giving a lot more higher picks. They have both been cited as examples for our front office, perhaps we learned if we really really really suck for 6 or 8 years we can pick up a half dozen picks in the top 10 and look smart.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 3:55 PM

RE: Tribe drafting 



jameseboy wrote: A couple much more appropriate teams to think about are Tampa and Pittsburgh, both have recent success and both have long losing records giving a lot more higher picks. They have both been cited as examples for our front office, perhaps we learned if we really really really suck for 6 or 8 years we can pick up a half dozen picks in the top 10 and look smart.
If sucking is the plan they seem to have that figured out for the foreseeable future.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 7:13 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote:
casper18837 wrote: I was looking at the Yankees last 10 years of drafting player's and it doesn't look any better then the Indians drafting results... There are some teams that draft well and other teams that miss the mark... I do think it's based on luck, Cleveland would have a better chance at drafting pitching in the first 10 rounds and then pick position player's.... I like the Idea of picking the best overall draft picks, but after the first couple of rounds you are just playing the lottery and hoping your numbers come in!!!
If you are playing the lottery then why does the team waste picks on:
1)  Catchers before about round 30.  You can always pick up the Henry Blanco, Mike Redmond types out of the free agent pool.  Just take a couple college seniors with a bit of pop late, give them bus fare, and hope and sign a bunch of guys from Latin America that play the position.

2)  Soft throwing pitchers.  Just take the hardest throwing pitcher available with every pick.  I don't care if they throw every other pitch in the stands.  You have years to teach them how to throw strikes or other pitches.  If they fail, well so do the finesse guys that top out at 87.
3)  OFs without a power component.  If this is simply a numbers game, draft 5-7 corner OFs every year with power skills even if they do nothing else.  If one every 2 years makes it, you have done more than Cleveland is doing now in filling those spots.   

Also draft as many guys recovering from TJ surgery as possible.  They have already got it out of the way and you always baby new pitchers anyway.
I agree with your number 2 take the hardest throwing pitcher's; worse case they are effective later in your bullpen... When it comes to position player's; I'm sure they look at On base percentage! I feel the first thing they should look at is how a player hit's off speed pitching... If a postion player can't hit off speed pitches then I wouldn't take until later rounds...
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Posted: 11/25/2012 8:46 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



casper18837 wrote:
CalBuckeyeRob wrote:
casper18837 wrote: I was looking at the Yankees last 10 years of drafting player's and it doesn't look any better then the Indians drafting results... There are some teams that draft well and other teams that miss the mark... I do think it's based on luck, Cleveland would have a better chance at drafting pitching in the first 10 rounds and then pick position player's.... I like the Idea of picking the best overall draft picks, but after the first couple of rounds you are just playing the lottery and hoping your numbers come in!!!
If you are playing the lottery then why does the team waste picks on:
1)  Catchers before about round 30.  You can always pick up the Henry Blanco, Mike Redmond types out of the free agent pool.  Just take a couple college seniors with a bit of pop late, give them bus fare, and hope and sign a bunch of guys from Latin America that play the position.

2)  Soft throwing pitchers.  Just take the hardest throwing pitcher available with every pick.  I don't care if they throw every other pitch in the stands.  You have years to teach them how to throw strikes or other pitches.  If they fail, well so do the finesse guys that top out at 87.
3)  OFs without a power component.  If this is simply a numbers game, draft 5-7 corner OFs every year with power skills even if they do nothing else.  If one every 2 years makes it, you have done more than Cleveland is doing now in filling those spots.   

Also draft as many guys recovering from TJ surgery as possible.  They have already got it out of the way and you always baby new pitchers anyway.
I agree with your number 2 take the hardest throwing pitcher's; worse case they are effective later in your bullpen... When it comes to position player's; I'm sure they look at On base percentage! I feel the first thing they should look at is how a player hit's off speed pitching... If a postion player can't hit off speed pitches then I wouldn't take until later rounds...
Except if you are talking about a high school hitter then he will have seen so few really skilled pitchers that it is impossible to know where that guy might be in 3-4 years with baseball as his full-time job.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 10:17 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote:

2)  Soft throwing pitchers.  Just take the hardest throwing pitcher available with every pick.  I don't care if they throw every other pitch in the stands.  You have years to teach them how to throw strikes or other pitches.  If they fail, well so do the finesse guys that top out at 87.
http://www.baseball-reference....id=griffi001jon
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Posted: 11/25/2012 10:48 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



Lando12 wrote:
CalBuckeyeRob wrote:

2)  Soft throwing pitchers.  Just take the hardest throwing pitcher available with every pick.  I don't care if they throw every other pitch in the stands.  You have years to teach them how to throw strikes or other pitches.  If they fail, well so do the finesse guys that top out at 87.
http://www.baseball-reference....id=griffi001jon
Yep.  Threw crazy hard and never harnessed any accuracy before his shoulder went bad.  Jeremy Sowers went #20 in that draft then in the top 10 three years later to the Tribe.  100% healthy he was unable to get major league hitters out.  You are going to have busts in either group, but the guys that throw it 93+ have a lot more upside if they make it.  Since there is no doubt that the success rate for a good draft is pretty low, it seems to make sense to take lots of guys that do the thing you value.

The entire 2001 draft was just a mess for almost every pitcher drafted in the top 2 rounds.  When Gavin Floyd leads the pack with 70 career wins it was ugly.
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Posted: 11/25/2012 10:57 PM

RE: Tribe drafting 


Are we supposed to skip over soft tossers like Jered Weaver?
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Posted: 11/25/2012 11:48 PM

RE: Tribe drafting 



Lando12 wrote: Are we supposed to skip over soft tossers like Jered Weaver?
I didn't radar gun his college starts, but according to this article, which seems to be from a Jered Weaver stalker, he was throwing plenty of 92-93 mph fastballs his last year in college.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2004/03/

And BA says he hit 95.  http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2004draft/fir stround.html
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Posted: 11/26/2012 12:38 AM

RE: Tribe drafting 



Lando12 wrote: Are we supposed to skip over soft tossers like Jered Weaver?
No,  I'm not talking first round player's!!! You have to take a chance on a guy that everybody in the country like, but when you get past the third round then you have take a diffrent approach..

Last edited 11/26/2012 12:42 AM by casper18837

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Posted: 11/26/2012 11:18 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



jameseboy wrote: Interesting note from Hoynes this am "In those 15 years (1998-2012), they didn't have a first-round pick in two years and had just three picks in the top 10 of the first round: Sowers, Drew Pomeranz (No. 5, 2010) and Francisco Lindor (No. 8, 2011)."

How about going over the drafts from the 1st decade that Dolan has owned the team?
From 2000-2009, they had 19 1st round picks....19.

Bottom line is that this org. has easily been in the bottom 5 & quite possibly the worst of the 30 ML teams in drafting & developing players since Dolan became owner.

Little wonder that they now stand near the bottom of MLB & MiLB in regards to talent.
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Posted: 11/26/2012 11:21 PM

Re: Tribe drafting 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote: Yet somehow other organizations seem to successfully draft and develop impact players outside the top 10 picks.
No doubt.  Look at the A-Cab to the Cards thread. The 3 pitchers that most posters seem to want from the Cards were all drafted outside the top 10.
Miller-19th
Lynn-39th
Rosenthal-639th

The teams who have decent front offices get the job done regardless of where they draft.
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:14 AM

RE: Tribe drafting 


Someone needs to give WIA a show on STO. I suggest "Data mining with WIA!"
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