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Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!!

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Posted: 11/12/2012 3:36 PM

Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


Does this mean we're in the buyer's mode now & the fire sale is off. Would give us the best outfield, in quite possibly a decade............Victorino; Brantley; and Choo. Plus, he's the proto-typical #2 hitter, and would fit nicely in that spot (presumably after Brantley, leading off). Tremendous clubhouse guy also= would be an immediate leader !!!!!!! http://www.waitingfornextyear.com  (on The Indians page)

Last edited 11/12/2012 3:45 PM by TopDawgDixon

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Posted: 11/12/2012 4:04 PM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


I hope not....
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Posted: 11/12/2012 4:07 PM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


can't say i'd be crazy for this kind of move. yea, it'd be an upgrade. but:

* he's 31
* he was pretty bad in 2012
* his career OPS is .770, for OPS+ of 102
* he's probably going to get 3/30 or more.

if you're going to spend that kind of money, i'd prefer it go toward pitching.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 4:38 PM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



buddy34 wrote: can't say i'd be crazy for this kind of move. yea, it'd be an upgrade. but:

* he's 31
* he was pretty bad in 2012
* his career OPS is .770, for OPS+ of 102
* he's probably going to get 3/30 or more.

if you're going to spend that kind of money, i'd prefer it go toward pitching.
I agree with sentiment that the money may be better served allotted to the rotation, but those are the reasons he'll conceivably be in our price range, not reasons to not chase him. 

I tend to think he's undervalued, he's a really good player. Even last year, his WAR was 3.3, which would easily be tops in the Indians OF. He would be a natural fit at the top of the order, hits lefties extremely well, decent pop, and plays great defense all over the OF. He's probably a better CF than Brantley. I'm not sure what else we could realistically expect if we're trying to fill some holes in that lineup.

Also, note, his BABIP was a .278 last year, far below his career average. You can make the case his low batting average (and thus low OBP and OPS) was a case of bad luck and not diminishing skills. He's pretty fast, the BABIP shouldn't be that low. He's should bounce back.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 6:53 PM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



CleFanMike wrote:
I agree with sentiment that the money may be better served allotted to the rotation, but those are the reasons he'll conceivably be in our price range, not reasons to not chase him. 

I tend to think he's undervalued, he's a really good player. Even last year, his WAR was 3.3, which would easily be tops in the Indians OF. He would be a natural fit at the top of the order, hits lefties extremely well, decent pop, and plays great defense all over the OF. He's probably a better CF than Brantley. I'm not sure what else we could realistically expect if we're trying to fill some holes in that lineup.

Also, note, his BABIP was a .278 last year, far below his career average. You can make the case his low batting average (and thus low OBP and OPS) was a case of bad luck and not diminishing skills. He's pretty fast, the BABIP shouldn't be that low. He's should bounce back.

I wouldn't have a problem if they went after Victorino - so long as the price was very reasonable. But leadoff hitter? Really? You believe a guy who's career OBP is around .340 is a "natural" leadoff hitter? Not to mention (which apparently I am) that it's been well under .330 the last 2 seasons?

I think Buddy is right, this guy's career appears to be in decline. He's still a good player but I wouldn't give much for him.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 7:24 PM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



TitoFrancona wrote:
CleFanMike wrote:
I agree with sentiment that the money may be better served allotted to the rotation, but those are the reasons he'll conceivably be in our price range, not reasons to not chase him. 

I tend to think he's undervalued, he's a really good player. Even last year, his WAR was 3.3, which would easily be tops in the Indians OF. He would be a natural fit at the top of the order, hits lefties extremely well, decent pop, and plays great defense all over the OF. He's probably a better CF than Brantley. I'm not sure what else we could realistically expect if we're trying to fill some holes in that lineup.

Also, note, his BABIP was a .278 last year, far below his career average. You can make the case his low batting average (and thus low OBP and OPS) was a case of bad luck and not diminishing skills. He's pretty fast, the BABIP shouldn't be that low. He's should bounce back.

I wouldn't have a problem if they went after Victorino - so long as the price was very reasonable. But leadoff hitter? Really? You believe a guy who's career OBP is around .340 is a "natural" leadoff hitter? Not to mention (which apparently I am) that it's been well under .330 the last 2 seasons?

I think Buddy is right, this guy's career appears to be in decline. He's still a good player but I wouldn't give much for him.
Again, you're basing this on his numbers from last year - and three years ago. I stated how I felt about that. Both seasons are skewed by a low BABIP. I tend to believe he's the .350 OBP guy from every other full season he's had. Those numbers combined with his pop and speed, that's what I would like from my leadoff hitter.

It matters little where he bats. What matters is he's a good fit for this team, and I personally don't think one bad year means he's now in full fledged decline. I think it presents the opportunity to get him at a reduced cost.

Last edited 11/12/2012 7:26 PM by CleFanMike

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Posted: 11/12/2012 7:25 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


Poor mans Michael Brantley. We are complete idiots if we sign this guy for 9 Mill per year like he wants.

I want the Indians to add some players to contend for next year, but Victorino is a big waste.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 7:29 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



tribefan40 wrote: Poor mans Michael Brantley. We are complete idiots if we sign this guy for 9 Mill per year like he wants.

I want the Indians to add some players to contend for next year, but Victorino is a big waste.
It's really time to adjust what 9 million buys you. 

Very little. At three years 27 million I'd certainly take Victorino. More to the point, Victorino has some similarities to Brantley, but his power, baserunning, and defense are all superior.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 7:53 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


you may be right, but i'd prefer rolling the dice on a guy like melky cabrera.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 11:27 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


I'd give the MelkMan 3/30 before I gave Victorino 3/30.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 12:12 AM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



buddy34 wrote:
if you're going to spend that kind of money, i'd prefer it go toward pitching.

By UZR, the Indians had the second worst OF defense in MLB last year, with a mark of -25.3.  Pitching is a major problem, but it is just part of the broader issue of run prevention.

I don't think the Indians can solve the problem of run prevention with pitching alone.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 12:57 AM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



TopDawgDixon wrote: Does this mean we're in the buyer's mode now & the fire sale is off. Would give us the best outfield, in quite possibly a decade............Victorino; Brantley; and Choo. Plus, he's the proto-typical #2 hitter, and would fit nicely in that spot (presumably after Brantley, leading off). Tremendous clubhouse guy also= would be an immediate leader !!!!!!! http://www.waitingfornextyear.com  (on The Indians page)
No it means you nothing about baseball.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 5:50 AM

Re: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


I don't think the Indians can solve the problem of run prevention with pitching
alone.

------------

i agree, but in that equation, pitching > defense.

you could run pretty much any professional leftfielder out there in 2013 and it would be better defensively than what we did in 2012.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 9:36 AM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



buddy34 wrote: you may be right, but i'd prefer rolling the dice on a guy like melky cabrera.
Melky Cabrera is another value free agent signing. Sign me up at the right price as well. The key to a Cabrera signing would be the number of years, I wouldn't go past two. That would mitigate the risk if he falls back to the pre-2011 Melky Cabrera after the steroid discovery.

To me, it's got to be about value. The Indians aren't going to be competing for the high tier free agents, so they need to find 'buy low' candidates in free agency. Of course, when you're talking 10m a season it's hard to term that as 'buy low,' but certainly a guy like Victorino is going to be cheaper in 2012 free agency than he would have been if he was a free agent in 2011. Victorino, Cabrera, and Jason Bay, all for different reasons, are guys who would fit that criteria.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:08 AM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



CleFanMike wrote:
buddy34 wrote: you may be right, but i'd prefer rolling the dice on a guy like melky cabrera.
Melky Cabrera is another value free agent signing. Sign me up at the right price as well. The key to a Cabrera signing would be the number of years, I wouldn't go past two. That would mitigate the risk if he falls back to the pre-2011 Melky Cabrera after the steroid discovery.

To me, it's got to be about value. The Indians aren't going to be competing for the high tier free agents, so they need to find 'buy low' candidates in free agency. Of course, when you're talking 10m a season it's hard to term that as 'buy low,' but certainly a guy like Victorino is going to be cheaper in 2012 free agency than he would have been if he was a free agent in 2011. Victorino, Cabrera, and Jason Bay, all for different reasons, are guys who would fit that criteria.
Cleveland will never win "an everything being equal" choice by a player in free agency.  I would not hesitate to give a 28 year old Cabrera 3 years if it got him to sign.  I fear we will get a 34 year old Jason Bay instead and watch him spend the next 2 years on the DL or batting .235.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:16 AM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


amen. it's been a long time since jason bay was worth having
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:29 AM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



CalBuckeyeRob wrote:
CleFanMike wrote:
buddy34 wrote: you may be right, but i'd prefer rolling the dice on a guy like melky cabrera.
Melky Cabrera is another value free agent signing. Sign me up at the right price as well. The key to a Cabrera signing would be the number of years, I wouldn't go past two. That would mitigate the risk if he falls back to the pre-2011 Melky Cabrera after the steroid discovery.

To me, it's got to be about value. The Indians aren't going to be competing for the high tier free agents, so they need to find 'buy low' candidates in free agency. Of course, when you're talking 10m a season it's hard to term that as 'buy low,' but certainly a guy like Victorino is going to be cheaper in 2012 free agency than he would have been if he was a free agent in 2011. Victorino, Cabrera, and Jason Bay, all for different reasons, are guys who would fit that criteria.
Cleveland will never win "an everything being equal" choice by a player in free agency.  I would not hesitate to give a 28 year old Cabrera 3 years if it got him to sign.  I fear we will get a 34 year old Jason Bay instead and watch him spend the next 2 years on the DL or batting .235.
We may end up with Bay. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't fear too much though, it would only be a one year deal at a very, very small salary. We're talking flyer, not two-year albatross. 

As a corner outfield bat that hits right-handed and is...alive...he's certainly under consideration. If Terry Francona wants him and thinks he can get something out of him, this may happen...
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Posted: 11/13/2012 11:45 AM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



CleFanMike wrote:
We may end up with Bay. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't fear too much though, it would only be a one year deal at a very, very small salary. We're talking flyer, not two-year albatross. 

As a corner outfield bat that hits right-handed and is...alive...he's certainly under consideration. If Terry Francona wants him and thinks he can get something out of him, this may happen...

Jason Bay is going to sign a minor league deal. I can't see any team willing to give him a guaranteed contract even at 1 year ML minimum. Last year he was dreadful, the year before barely adequate. Hoping a 34 year old is going to turn back the clock would be silly.

Bay's entire game was predicated on power numbers. He hasn't shown much power in the last 3 years. I hope that Francona is smart enough to realize that relying on what aging players to do what they did 3 or 4 years ago is an act of desperation.

And if Antonetti does sign Bay, well, you know the saying about people who do the same thing over and over again expecting different results?
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Posted: 11/13/2012 2:11 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 



TitoFrancona wrote:
CleFanMike wrote:
We may end up with Bay. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't fear too much though, it would only be a one year deal at a very, very small salary. We're talking flyer, not two-year albatross. 

As a corner outfield bat that hits right-handed and is...alive...he's certainly under consideration. If Terry Francona wants him and thinks he can get something out of him, this may happen...

Jason Bay is going to sign a minor league deal. I can't see any team willing to give him a guaranteed contract even at 1 year ML minimum. Last year he was dreadful, the year before barely adequate. Hoping a 34 year old is going to turn back the clock would be silly.

Bay's entire game was predicated on power numbers. He hasn't shown much power in the last 3 years. I hope that Francona is smart enough to realize that relying on what aging players to do what they did 3 or 4 years ago is an act of desperation.

And if Antonetti does sign Bay, well, you know the saying about people who do the same thing over and over again expecting different results?
Signing a guy like Bay would be an attempt by the front office to pretend like they are trying to win by signing a "name" player that the casual fan would know.  The team has zero chance of competing in 2013 so getting anyone that can't be expected to produce in 2014/2015 is just a waste of money and I agree that Bay is done or at best would produce at a Canzler/Laporta level when he wasn't on the DL.
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Posted: 11/13/2012 2:23 PM

RE: Tribe making a play, for Shane Victorino !!! 


This team doesn't have a LF. Spending a bit of money on a LF isn't an outrageous thing to do. I'll wait and see what they're willing to commit financially before getting into the weeds, but wanting a professional LF is just sensible.
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