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Re: Changes for 2013

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Posted: 10/16/2012 2:01 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


I bet the Reds move him to the rotation. They'll have the need to feel like they're getting their money's worth out of him.

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Posted: 10/16/2012 2:08 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



wolfpack87 wrote: I bet the Reds move him to the rotation. They'll have the need to feel like they're getting their money's worth out of him.
See but I feel they'll keep him at closer because it's "easier" and "safer".
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Posted: 10/16/2012 2:10 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



UCbengal985 wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote: I bet the Reds move him to the rotation. They'll have the need to feel like they're getting their money's worth out of him.
See but I feel they'll keep him at closer because it's "easier" and "safer".
I'm really torn. As bad as I want Leake out of the rotation, it's also nice having the best closer in baseball, bar none. And as somebody already mentioned, he'll have an innings limit, and we probably wouldn't have him here to pitch any in the playoffs. So then we're back to square one. You can skip a ton of starts for him down the stretch to have him in the playoffs, but then there is no guarantee he won't be rusty and he may pitch like **** down the stretch.

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Posted: 10/16/2012 2:55 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


^ With Dusty back, I wouldn't count on being in the playoffs next year unless Walt takes away some of his choices. Even if we make the playoffs can anyone expect anything but a short stay?
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Posted: 10/16/2012 3:03 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


if Walt does't get us a legitimate leadoff hitter, then no, I don't expect a long stay in the playoffs.

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Posted: 10/16/2012 3:24 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



UCbengal985 wrote: Most guys go from failed stating pitchers to closers. Not the other way around. Adam Wainwright did it with ease. I just think it's a risk you have to take. As a closer, you statistically throw 1/3 of the innings you would as a starter. Chapman struggled when we threw him out there too many consecutive days. He was always a starter and dominated in Spring Training as one this year. You can always find another closer. You can't ever just sign some guy that throws 220 innings and keeps a 2.60 ERA, at least not with a franchise like ours. If he fails, you can always bring him back to the pen.
If there was some sort of guarantee that Chapman would put up 220 innings and a 2.60 ERA then it's a no brainer that he goes to the rotation but it's FAR from a sure thing.  I wouldn't be so sure that you can just plug him back in the pen if he fails.  When Neftali Feliz was moved to the rotation this year, he lasted a month before blowing out his arm.  Joba Chamberlain first injured his shoulder after moving to the rotation, then hasn't been the same after he struggled and was sent back to the pen.  Daniel Bard hasn't been the same after going to the rotation.  To me it's just a scary proposition when you aren't desperate for starters and he is the best closer in baseball
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Posted: 10/16/2012 3:38 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
UCbengal985 wrote: Most guys go from failed stating pitchers to closers. Not the other way around. Adam Wainwright did it with ease. I just think it's a risk you have to take. As a closer, you statistically throw 1/3 of the innings you would as a starter. Chapman struggled when we threw him out there too many consecutive days. He was always a starter and dominated in Spring Training as one this year. You can always find another closer. You can't ever just sign some guy that throws 220 innings and keeps a 2.60 ERA, at least not with a franchise like ours. If he fails, you can always bring him back to the pen.
If there was some sort of guarantee that Chapman would put up 220 innings and a 2.60 ERA then it's a no brainer that he goes to the rotation but it's FAR from a sure thing.  I wouldn't be so sure that you can just plug him back in the pen if he fails.  When Neftali Feliz was moved to the rotation this year, he lasted a month before blowing out his arm.  Joba Chamberlain first injured his shoulder after moving to the rotation, then hasn't been the same after he struggled and was sent back to the pen.  Daniel Bard hasn't been the same after going to the rotation.  To me it's just a scary proposition when you aren't desperate for starters and he is the best closer in baseball
Given Dusty's history with pitchers I would say keep him in the pen....however I would not be afraid to throw him more than an inning or 12 pitches in crucial situations...like game 3 of NLDS...
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Posted: 10/16/2012 4:28 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 


Kimbrell from Atl was a better closer this year.

Stats wise, friggin Fernando Rodney was equal to if not better than Chapman, and there is the rub. If you can turn a journeyman closer, like Rodney, into an AL Cy Young candidate, then just how valuable is the position?



Put another way, what is more likely -- the Reds adding a stud starting pitcher through FA (I
mean a true #1 quality ace) or adding a top closer thru FA? Obviously the team isn't signing a 20 to 25 million dollar SP anytime soon, so zero chance of that. But Madson probably puts up similar save totals to Chappy this year (the rest is just window dressing in that role), as as mentioned Rodney was a total stud.

I agree that mgmt WON'T move Chappy, if only b/c they are the most risk averse pussies I have seen outside of the NFL in a long time. Reds need to be creative, think out of the box to win against better salaried teams over the long haul. But what mgmt has proven, time and again, is that it will ALWAYS take the safe road, regardless of ceilings or floors. From the trade of Hamilton (entirely a risk assesment move) to resigning Dusty to standing pat after 2010 (and almost certainly again after 2012), this team is nothing if not cautious.

Chapman has #1 starter stuff. Dominant, mid 1980's Doc Gooden Stuff. Compared to Randy Johnson by more than one big leaguer. That is his ceiling. As a closer, what is his ceiling? Mo Rivera? To be Mo the Reds will have to get to and win several WS, something that would be easier to attain (imo) with Chappy in the rotation as opposed to 60 to 80 innings from the pen.
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Posted: 10/16/2012 5:12 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



TauBag94 wrote: Kimbrell from Atl was a better closer this year.

Ok, one guy... so you move him?

Stats wise, friggin Fernando Rodney was equal to if not better than Chapman, and there is the rub. If you can turn a journeyman closer, like Rodney, into an AL Cy Young candidate, then just how valuable is the position?

Rodney's season was a huge statistical outlier.  If you can predict the next Fernando Rodney (journeyman who has a career year) then of course, it's a no brainer.  We have been so spoiled this year with him that we forget we are just one year removed from Francisco Cordero and we were all tearing our hair out every game he entered.

Put another way, what is more likely -- the Reds adding a stud starting pitcher through FA (I
mean a true #1 quality ace) or adding a top closer thru FA? Obviously the team isn't signing a 20 to 25 million dollar SP anytime soon, so zero chance of that. But Madson probably puts up similar save totals to Chappy this year (the rest is just window dressing in that role), as as mentioned Rodney was a total stud.

If we had huge holes in the rotation and that alone was keeping this team from winning a title, then it's well worth the risk but we are talking about a team that left 7 on in a 2-1 game 3 loss, left 10 on base in a 8-3 loss then left 11 on base in a 6-4 loss.

I agree that mgmt WON'T move Chappy, if only b/c they are the most risk averse pussies I have seen outside of the NFL in a long time. Reds need to be creative, think out of the box to win against better salaried teams over the long haul. But what mgmt has proven, time and again, is that it will ALWAYS take the safe road, regardless of ceilings or floors. From the trade of Hamilton (entirely a risk assesment move) to resigning Dusty to standing pat after 2010 (and almost certainly again after 2012), this team is nothing if not cautious.

I understand your frustration with 2010 but Walt Jocketty did not trade Josh Hamilton

Chapman has #1 starter stuff. Dominant, mid 1980's Doc Gooden Stuff. Compared to Randy Johnson by more than one big leaguer. That is his ceiling. As a closer, what is his ceiling? Mo Rivera? To be Mo the Reds will have to get to and win several WS, something that would be easier to attain (imo) with Chappy in the rotation as opposed to 60 to 80 innings from the pen.

IMO, the rotation was and is good enough (with a healthy Cueto) to get to the World Series.  As it stands, you WANT but do not NEED to upgrade the rotation but if you move Chapman to the rotation, you will spend resources needed elsewhere who is all but guaranteed to not be as good as Chapman
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Posted: 10/16/2012 6:13 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
TauBag94 wrote: Kimbrell from Atl was a better closer this year.

Ok, one guy... so you move him?

Stats wise, friggin Fernando Rodney was equal to if not better than Chapman, and there is the rub. If you can turn a journeyman closer, like Rodney, into an AL Cy Young candidate, then just how valuable is the position?

Rodney's season was a huge statistical outlier.  If you can predict the next Fernando Rodney (journeyman who has a career year) then of course, it's a no brainer.  We have been so spoiled this year with him that we forget we are just one year removed from Francisco Cordero and we were all tearing our hair out every game he entered.

Put another way, what is more likely -- the Reds adding a stud starting pitcher through FA (I
mean a true #1 quality ace) or adding a top closer thru FA? Obviously the team isn't signing a 20 to 25 million dollar SP anytime soon, so zero chance of that. But Madson probably puts up similar save totals to Chappy this year (the rest is just window dressing in that role), as as mentioned Rodney was a total stud.

If we had huge holes in the rotation and that alone was keeping this team from winning a title, then it's well worth the risk but we are talking about a team that left 7 on in a 2-1 game 3 loss, left 10 on base in a 8-3 loss then left 11 on base in a 6-4 loss.

I agree that mgmt WON'T move Chappy, if only b/c they are the most risk averse pussies I have seen outside of the NFL in a long time. Reds need to be creative, think out of the box to win against better salaried teams over the long haul. But what mgmt has proven, time and again, is that it will ALWAYS take the safe road, regardless of ceilings or floors. From the trade of Hamilton (entirely a risk assesment move) to resigning Dusty to standing pat after 2010 (and almost certainly again after 2012), this team is nothing if not cautious.

I understand your frustration with 2010 but Walt Jocketty did not trade Josh Hamilton

Chapman has #1 starter stuff. Dominant, mid 1980's Doc Gooden Stuff. Compared to Randy Johnson by more than one big leaguer. That is his ceiling. As a closer, what is his ceiling? Mo Rivera? To be Mo the Reds will have to get to and win several WS, something that would be easier to attain (imo) with Chappy in the rotation as opposed to 60 to 80 innings from the pen.

IMO, the rotation was and is good enough (with a healthy Cueto) to get to the World Series.  As it stands, you WANT but do not NEED to upgrade the rotation but if you move Chapman to the rotation, you will spend resources needed elsewhere who is all but guaranteed to not be as good as Chapman




My Kimbrel comment was to simply point out that while some folks this season were trying to claim that Chappy was having a 'greatest ever' season, it didn't even beat out the last 2 by a current NL closer.  I don't want to move him to SP b/c of anything to do with Kimbrel.  I do want to look into the possibility that Chapman could have a much, much larger impact for the team as a Sp than a closer.


Every year there are TONS of guys who do the Rodney.  Brandon League to Chris Perez to Boxton during the 1st half season.  And fwiw, Cordero's production #'s, though not his peripherals, measure up quite nicely if you want to check them out again.  But it is precisely Chappy's peripherals that make him such an outlier and requires that any team at least investigate making him a starting pitcher.


As for the rotation strength, isn't it a distinct possibility that this season was an outlier in terms of the production of the staff?  Can't we all predict a bit of a fall back to earth -- or at a minimum, an injury to one of the rotation?  But Chappy isn't just an injury replacement.  He is a potential true #1 starter, a guy who the Reds will never be able to buy but only develop.

In the end, I just think we value closers differently.  I don't think that the Reds even come close to maximizing Chappy's value at the position.  Given how verbose I have already been, don't think we have time to adequately debate that issue now though.  ;-)

And with the Hamilton deal, most who were here at the time should recall that I posted at the beginning of the offseason that it would happen b/c I was told so by my unlce who is a childhood friend of Big Bob.  The 'risk averse' nature that I speak of goes deeper than the gm, which is why Dusty's extension made my list and that clearly wasn't the doing of the gm.
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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:14 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Closers are way overrated guys. Just look at the salary difference between starters and closers. Look at WAR too. Do you guys realize that Arroyo basically had the same WAR as Chapmanthis year?
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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:24 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



TauBag94 wrote:
My Kimbrel comment was to simply point out that while some folks this season were trying to claim that Chappy was having a 'greatest ever' season, it didn't even beat out the last 2 by a current NL closer.  I don't want to move him to SP b/c of anything to do with Kimbrel.  I do want to look into the possibility that Chapman could have a much, much larger impact for the team as a Sp than a closer.

Yes, he COULD make a huge impact as a starter.  Or he could blow out his elbow or he could be totally ineffective as a starter and/or never be the same when he goes back to the 'pen.

Every year there are TONS of guys who do the Rodney.  Brandon League to Chris Perez to Boxton during the 1st half season. 

That's exactly my point.  How do you go about finding the guy who "does the Rodney" to replace Chapman?

And fwiw, Cordero's production #'s, though not his peripherals, measure up quite nicely if you want to check them out again. 

Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar

But it is precisely Chappy's peripherals that make him such an outlier and requires that any team at least investigate making him a starting pitcher.

Yes, it is great dreaming of what could be if he works out, but like I said, far from a sure thing

As for the rotation strength, isn't it a distinct possibility that this season was an outlier in terms of the production of the staff?  Can't we all predict a bit of a fall back to earth -- or at a minimum, an injury to one of the rotation?  But Chappy isn't just an injury replacement.  He is a potential true #1 starter, a guy who the Reds will never be able to buy but only develop.

It is very possible that this year is an outlier but if there was a way to predict these things, then being a GM and/or manager would be simple.  I just think the risk is much too large moving him to the rotation.  If that makes me "risk averse", then so be it.

In the end, I just think we value closers differently.  I don't think that the Reds even come close to maximizing Chappy's value at the position.  Given how verbose I have already been, don't think we have time to adequately debate that issue now though.  ;-)

Starters have much more value than closers.  No argument from me there.  I'm not saying closers can't be replaced but you have a reliable, dominant closer right now.  But he's only more valuable though if he's healthy and producing at the same rate he is now.

And with the Hamilton deal, most who were here at the time should recall that I posted at the beginning of the offseason that it would happen b/c I was told so by my unlce who is a childhood friend of Big Bob.  The 'risk averse' nature that I speak of goes deeper than the gm, which is why Dusty's extension made my list and that clearly wasn't the doing of the gm.

I guess I just disagree that the Hamilton trade was solely about minimizing risk.  They had a HUGE hole in the rotation and had extra outfielders.  I hated the trade when it happened but I understood why they did it.  The Votto deal was a huge risk and so was signing Chapman out of Cuba.  I just don't think the "risk minimization" runs as deep as you think

Last edited 10/16/2012 7:36 PM by OhioRaiderNation

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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:31 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



DocBuc wrote: Closers are way overrated guys. Just look at the salary difference between starters and closers. Look at WAR too. Do you guys realize that Arroyo basically had the same WAR as Chapmanthis year?
Again and again, I'm not saying Closers are more valuable or even as valuable as starters.  If they make him a starter, I'm not going to complain about it because the reward is HUGE.  I just think you are playing with fire by trying to make him a starter.  He has had some arm problems in the bullpen, I have my doubts he can get stretched out and survive for 200 innings
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Posted: 10/16/2012 8:04 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


IMHO the Reds will sign Madson or Broxton and attempt to make Chapman a starter. If by early July, the experiment hasn't had the desired results then the Reds could easily move him back to the bullpen (much easier to convert a starter to reliever than vice versa). I would send Leake to AAA in an attempt to have him continue to progress or until he would be needed with the big club.

The other possibility I could see for Leake is to possibly package him with Stubbs to Minnesota for Denard Span (he is signed thru 2014 with a club option for 2015, which gives Hamilton 2 years before he would be needed to patrol CF). Not sure the Twins would go for that trade so it may require a sweetner, such as prospect.
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
DocBuc wrote: Closers are way overrated guys. Just look at the salary difference between starters and closers. Look at WAR too. Do you guys realize that Arroyo basically had the same WAR as Chapmanthis year?
Again and again, I'm not saying Closers are more valuable or even as valuable as starters.  If they make him a starter, I'm not going to complain about it because the reward is HUGE.  I just think you are playing with fire by trying to make him a starter.  He has had some arm problems in the bullpen, I have my doubts he can get stretched out and survive for 200 innings
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Posted: 10/16/2012 8:43 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



 

Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar


How else would you measure a closer?  By height?  wink 



My point regarding the Hamilton trade was that mgmt had determined to trade him for the best available deal. That such a deal was primarily for a SP was a no brainer, but the decision to trade Hamilton from Cincy was made long before Volquez or any other specific player had been crystalized.  And the decision was a "sell high" move, even though we all saw Josh rise a bit higher...



edit -- yikes, text picked up the RED from quote even though it shows black here.  must be my red letter version, pay attention boys, water to wine shall be next

Last edited 10/16/2012 8:44 PM by TauBag94

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Posted: 10/16/2012 8:50 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



TauBag94 wrote:   Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar

How else would you measure a closer?  By height?  wink 
I guess I don't consider the number of games you kept a 3 run lead for an inning the most valuable stat to evaluate a pitcher
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Posted: 10/16/2012 10:58 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
TauBag94 wrote:   Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar

How else would you measure a closer?  By height?  wink 
I guess I don't consider the number of games you kept a 3 run lead for an inning the most valuable stat to evaluate a pitcher



I measure closers by save % and golfers by height


But gofers I measure by the carcass.


btw, if anybody missed this Murray family gem, you have another shot:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/...r-in-road-house

Last edited 10/16/2012 10:59 PM by TauBag94

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Posted: 10/17/2012 6:21 AM

RE: Changes for 2013 



TauBag94 wrote:
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
TauBag94 wrote:   Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar

How else would you measure a closer?  By height?  wink 
I guess I don't consider the number of games you kept a 3 run lead for an inning the most valuable stat to evaluate a pitcher



I measure closers by save % and golfers by height


But gofers I measure by the carcass.


btw, if anybody missed this Murray family gem, you have another shot:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/...r-in-road-house
If you are telling me that Frank Francisco with his 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP are the same thing as Aroldis Chapman because they have the same Save % then I doubt we are going to find common ground on this
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Posted: 10/17/2012 8:57 AM

RE: Changes for 2013 


I am telling you that closers are measured by saves and save %. Nobody is saying they'd want Frank over Aroldis; but I am saying that your complaint about Cordero shows why you are wrong.

Either the guy gets the job done or he doesn't. Cordero did the job for us. Plenty of guys can do it. Aroldis certainly can do it.

But if you are going to tell me that any top closer has value near a top starter, then I agree, we aren't going to find common ground...
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Posted: 10/17/2012 11:38 AM

RE: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
TauBag94 wrote:
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
TauBag94 wrote:   Other than # of saves and save %, I'm not really sure where they are similar

How else would you measure a closer?  By height?  wink 
I guess I don't consider the number of games you kept a 3 run lead for an inning the most valuable stat to evaluate a pitcher



I measure closers by save % and golfers by height


But gofers I measure by the carcass.


btw, if anybody missed this Murray family gem, you have another shot:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/...r-in-road-house
If you are telling me that Frank Francisco with his 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP are the same thing as Aroldis Chapman because they have the same Save % then I doubt we are going to find common ground on this
They absolutely were equal in games in which they had a save opportunity. But they also came into games where there wasn't a save opportunity, which I am sure Francisco probably did much worse. But the only thing I care about is whether we won the game or not, whether it is by 1 run or 3 runs is immaterial to me.
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