Free Trial Ad
Why Subscribe?
  • Player/Prospect News
  • Exclusive Insider Info
  • Members-Only Forums
  • Exclusive Videos
  • Subscribe Now!
Inbox
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
< Prev.  Page of 5  Next >

Re: Changes for 2013

Avatar

Posted: 10/12/2012 4:33 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote:
DocBuc wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
Bailey was straight out of high school. Leake came out of college and has been here 3 years. Huge huge difference. Leake is a bust, just move on.
Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 8+ seasons now including parts of 6 seasons in the majors.  Leake played 3 years in college and 3 more in the majors without coming up through the minors.  There is a huge, huge difference and it's in Homer's favor
Bailey has stuff. Leake doesn't. Thats probably the most significant difference

Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/12/2012 4:33 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


I'll tell you one change that will start next year, though I know it's not what you meant for the thread. My semi yearly trips to Cincinnati are over for a while....playoffs or not. I'll still follow of course, I'll still get the EI package because it's baseball and I'll never tire of that. But if I need to see MLB live, I'll do it in DC or Baltimore and not necessarily when the Reds are in town.

That was as disheartening a trip as it could have possibly been.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/12/2012 5:55 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


If we don't sign a cheap FA that can keep the ball in the park to replace Leake, there is no reason why we shouldn't give Cingrani a shot, assuming they keep Chapman in there as closer.

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/12/2012 7:36 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



wolfpack87 wrote:
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote:
DocBuc wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
Bailey was straight out of high school. Leake came out of college and has been here 3 years. Huge huge difference. Leake is a bust, just move on.
Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 8+ seasons now including parts of 6 seasons in the majors.  Leake played 3 years in college and 3 more in the majors without coming up through the minors.  There is a huge, huge difference and it's in Homer's favor
Bailey has stuff. Leake doesn't. Thats probably the most significant difference
Leake has stuff.  He just doesn't throw 95.  When you don't throw 95 or have a nasty secondary pitch, you have to live on location.  He's not there yet.  Will he ever get there?  Do you know how many teams would kill to have a 5th starter that takes the ball every single time and gives you 180 innings at a 1.3 WHIP?  Looking at his advanced stats, he's not THAT bad
Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/12/2012 11:46 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote:
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote:
DocBuc wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
Bailey was straight out of high school. Leake came out of college and has been here 3 years. Huge huge difference. Leake is a bust, just move on.
Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 8+ seasons now including parts of 6 seasons in the majors.  Leake played 3 years in college and 3 more in the majors without coming up through the minors.  There is a huge, huge difference and it's in Homer's favor
Bailey has stuff. Leake doesn't. Thats probably the most significant difference
Leake has stuff.  He just doesn't throw 95.  When you don't throw 95 or have a nasty secondary pitch, you have to live on location.  He's not there yet.  Will he ever get there?  Do you know how many teams would kill to have a 5th starter that takes the ball every single time and gives you 180 innings at a 1.3 WHIP?  Looking at his advanced stats, he's not THAT bad
He's not THAT bad...but he's not THAT good either. 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP in the league. He does give good innings and he is cheap. I would say he is an average 5th starter in the NL. This team is competing for championships though and we could do better IMO.

Last edited 10/13/2012 12:08 AM by DocBuc

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/12/2012 11:49 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/13/2012 12:26 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


We have Arroyo to be our "innings eater" that gives up homers and baserunners left and right. Do we really need 2 of those guys? If so many teams would kill for him, then hopefully we can get a good trade package for him.

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/13/2012 10:02 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



DocBuc wrote: He's not THAT bad...but he's not THAT good either. 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP in the league. He does give good innings and he is cheap. I would say he is an average 5th starter in the NL. This team is competing for championships though and we could do better IMO.
Again, how does improving your 5th starter help you win in the playoffs?  Teams don't even carry a 5th man in their rotation.  The Reds won 97 games with Leake in the regular season and came up short in the playoffs.  Sure, you can try and get another stud for the rotation that will make a start in the playoffs, but those guys do not come cheap, whether that cost is prospects or cash.  Prospects and cash the Reds don't have right now

Let's put that stats you threw out there into context.  He had the 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP among pitchers qualified for the ERA title in the National League.  46 pitchers qualified for the ERA title.  Every team (there are 16 in the NL) uses a 5 man rotation.  That's 80 pitchers total to fill out each team's 5 man rotation.  That means there were 34 more pitchers who were either injured and/or ineffective causing teams to use multiple guys in those spots in their rotations.

And, yes, until you have the 5 best pitchers in the majors in your starting rotation, you can always do better.  This is a team that won 97 games in the regular season and was 2nd in the Majors (1st in the NL) in run prevention.  I'm not sure why we are lashing out at a 5th starter who was forced into action in the playoffs because of an injury to our ace.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/13/2012 10:08 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


One thing we have to expect is the Reds will not be as fortunate with the pitching next year as they were this year in terms of injuries. As long as none of them are season ending, I think the Reds can overcome them.

Offensively, this team underachieved as a whole. Votto missing 2 months hurt but Stubbs, Cozart, Cairo and Rolen were bad at the plate. If Votto gets to NEAR his MVP level next year, Phillips hits to his baseball card and the Reds keep Ludwick all that is needed to improve is a tablesetter at the top of the lineup. Please not Phillips. I say we roll the dice with Heisey or give Hamilton a shot. Keep Stubbs on the bench and use him for defense later on or a baserunning replacement in late innings. I just don't understand how this team can lead the league in offense one year and be bad the next with better players.

What's the deal with Mesoraco? I thought he was a future stud at Catcher? I know he was just a rookie and played part time, but I wasn't impressed with him. Not only that, it seems that we should have traded him instead of Grandal who had a solid season in San Diego. Anyway, I know it's way to early to tell but so far he was disappointing. 

I am comfortable with a Cueto-Latos-Bailey top of the pitching rotation. Bailey really made strides the last several starts and it appears he "gets it". Excited what he can bring next year. All that's needed is Latos to have a full-time shrink to get his head straight when he encounters some adversity on the mound to prevent blowups that we have seen multiple times this year. 

This is going to sound pretty silly, but the Reds need to install a "winning" atmosphere somehow. Look at the effing Cardinals last night. With the shitty part of their lineup, they scored 4 runs to win their series last night. The Reds couldn't do that with the best part of their lineup multiple times. THAT is the difference between a "winning" atmosphere and a negative one.

 

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/13/2012 10:20 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



wolfpack87 wrote: We have Arroyo to be our "innings eater" that gives up homers and baserunners left and right. Do we really need 2 of those guys? If so many teams would kill for him, then hopefully we can get a good trade package for him.
I'll never convince you otherwise because of your hatred toward him regardless of the facts, but Bronson Arroyo is WAY more than a "innings eater who gives up homers and baserunners left and right"

And as far as Leake goes, at this point in his career, he is an innings eater but I haven't written him off as junk at 24 years old.  I'd love to have studs up and down the rotation but it's just not reality.

I know you are being sarcastic about teams trading for him but the grass isn't always greener
Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/13/2012 10:29 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
DocBuc wrote: He's not THAT bad...but he's not THAT good either. 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP in the league. He does give good innings and he is cheap. I would say he is an average 5th starter in the NL. This team is competing for championships though and we could do better IMO.
Again, how does improving your 5th starter help you win in the playoffs?  Teams don't even carry a 5th man in their rotation.  The Reds won 97 games with Leake in the regular season and came up short in the playoffs.  Sure, you can try and get another stud for the rotation that will make a start in the playoffs, but those guys do not come cheap, whether that cost is prospects or cash.  Prospects and cash the Reds don't have right now

Let's put that stats you threw out there into context.  He had the 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP among pitchers qualified for the ERA title in the National League.  46 pitchers qualified for the ERA title.  Every team (there are 16 in the NL) uses a 5 man rotation.  That's 80 pitchers total to fill out each team's 5 man rotation.  That means there were 34 more pitchers who were either injured and/or ineffective causing teams to use multiple guys in those spots in their rotations.

And, yes, until you have the 5 best pitchers in the majors in your starting rotation, you can always do better.  This is a team that won 97 games in the regular season and was 2nd in the Majors (1st in the NL) in run prevention.  I'm not sure why we are lashing out at a 5th starter who was forced into action in the playoffs because of an injury to our ace.
Did Leake pitch in the playoffs this year? LOL, you never know what can happen in the playoffs, but I get your point. You still always have to TRY to improve your team whether it is regular season or the playoffs. I'm not gonna say 97 wins this year was a fluke, but to expect to repeat that number next year is gonna be tough. Also, it was a weird year in the fact that 2 of the best teams in the NL were not even in playoff contention this year-I guarantee you the Phillies and Brewers will retool and be back in full force next year.

Also, I completely understand that many 5th starters don't qualify for ERA and WHIP and thats why I said he is an average 5th starter, (ie he is better than half the 5th starters for teams in general). If not, then I would have stated he is the 4th worst pitcher in the NL, which I realize is a foolish statement to make.

I don't think we are really disagreeing, just saying it in different ways. Hell, I think everyone and every position on this team could improve.

Last edited 10/13/2012 10:32 AM by DocBuc

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/13/2012 11:36 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



DocBuc wrote:
OhioRaiderNation wrote:
DocBuc wrote: He's not THAT bad...but he's not THAT good either. 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP in the league. He does give good innings and he is cheap. I would say he is an average 5th starter in the NL. This team is competing for championships though and we could do better IMO.
Again, how does improving your 5th starter help you win in the playoffs?  Teams don't even carry a 5th man in their rotation.  The Reds won 97 games with Leake in the regular season and came up short in the playoffs.  Sure, you can try and get another stud for the rotation that will make a start in the playoffs, but those guys do not come cheap, whether that cost is prospects or cash.  Prospects and cash the Reds don't have right now

Let's put that stats you threw out there into context.  He had the 4th worst ERA and 10th worst WHIP among pitchers qualified for the ERA title in the National League.  46 pitchers qualified for the ERA title.  Every team (there are 16 in the NL) uses a 5 man rotation.  That's 80 pitchers total to fill out each team's 5 man rotation.  That means there were 34 more pitchers who were either injured and/or ineffective causing teams to use multiple guys in those spots in their rotations.

And, yes, until you have the 5 best pitchers in the majors in your starting rotation, you can always do better.  This is a team that won 97 games in the regular season and was 2nd in the Majors (1st in the NL) in run prevention.  I'm not sure why we are lashing out at a 5th starter who was forced into action in the playoffs because of an injury to our ace.
Did Leake pitch in the playoffs this year? LOL, you never know what can happen in the playoffs, but I get your point. You still always have to TRY to improve your team whether it is regular season or the playoffs. I'm not gonna say 97 wins this year was a fluke, but to expect to repeat that number next year is gonna be tough. Also, it was a weird year in the fact that 2 of the best teams in the NL were not even in playoff contention this year-I guarantee you the Phillies and Brewers will retool and be back in full force next year.

Also, I completely understand that many 5th starters don't qualify for ERA and WHIP and thats why I said he is an average 5th starter, (ie he is better than half the 5th starters for teams in general). If not, then I would have stated he is the 4th worst pitcher in the NL, which I realize is a foolish statement to make.

I don't think we are really disagreeing, just saying it in different ways. Hell, I think everyone and every position on this team could improve.
I never said don't try and improve the team or rotation because you are all set with Leake.  What I was saying was, the way you improve the 5th spot in your rotation is to acquire a 1-3 starter and move guys down in the rotation, you don't just replace the 5th guy with a free agent or trade for one.  Those guys are expensive and the Reds do not have the cash or prospects to get one.  That was the point I was making.

Leake did pitch in the playoffs because of injury.  I understand that.  It was unfortunate timing and you would be hard pressed to find a team who can lose their ace during warmups of game 1 of the playoffs and have a seamless transition.  It's nearly impossible to build your team in anticipation of every freak injury.

My overall point here is that this team is really in a weird spot right now.  To improve this team, the front office is really going to have to think outside the box and get creative.  They don't have much money, if any, to spend, they have holes in the lineup to fill but not many positions defensively.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/13/2012 1:17 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Dusty gone
Cairo gone
Valdez gone
Rick Sweet as manager.

Retain:

Ludwick
Broxton
Madsen
Navarro
Paul

Move Chapman into the rotation (he was hands down the best starter in the spring) and let Broxton, Madsen, Hoover fight it out for the closer role.


Leake to AAA to hone his craft and be brought up for injuries and as Chappy's replacement as innings limits are reached).


Allow Rolen to return if he wants as the replacement for Cairo.


H Rod to replace Valdez.


Mes begins at AAA to play everyday to get his mojo and swing back.


Would love to sign Angel Pagan but he'll be too expensive so sign Reed Johnson or Cody Ross as a bridge to Hamilton.


And last but not least, send Stubbs first to an eye doctor and then to a psychiatrist and finally to a 24/7 batting cage where only bunting is allowed.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/13/2012 4:53 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Here are my suggestions (I'm aware that some of these will never happen with Dusty around):

Find a platoon partner against RHP for Stubbs until Hamilton is ready
Work him in a straight L/R platoon.  His BA/OBP/SLG against RHP last season was .186/.259/.282... Yikes.  However, against lefties he was a respectable .283/.324/.464.  If you can't find a guy cheaply in free agency (McLouth comes to mind), I'd give Xavier Paul the first crack at it.  For his career he has hit .275/.320/.393 against RHP.

Keep Cozart at SS but give him some competition that can hit
I give Cozart a pass in his rookie year for not beating the cover off the baseball.  Dusty had nowhere else to go because Valdez couldn't hit a watermelon with a tennis racket.  I'd sign a veteran who can play multiple positions like Valdez (Keppinger, Fontenot, Theriot, Ronny Cedeno) but can hit a little bit.  If Cozart struggles, you wouldn't lose anything with those guys and wouldn't have to rush Gregorius

Leave Chapman in the closer's role
Chapman is the best closer in baseball.  By moving him to the rotation, you weaken the best bullpen in baseball for unknown performance in the rotation.  Plus, his innings are going to have to be limited, risking a late season shutdown like Strasburg.  I'd rather stick with the rotation they have and if injuries plague the rotation, Redmond and/or Cingrani can step in

Resign Ludwick
By all appearances he loved Cincinnati and I think would like to be back.  Will the mutual option for $5M be enough though?  I hope so.  He was arguably the Reds best player in the playoffs and the only source of power.

Resign Navarro and start Mesoraco at AAA
It shouldn't take much to resign Navarro and he and Hanigan can handle the catching duties.  Mesoraco needs consistent ABs and to regain his confidence.  If Mescoraco is mashing AAA pitching, you can carry 3 catchers.  Having a switch hitting catcher is a great weapon to have on your bench.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/15/2012 2:44 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


A couple of additions to my original post. 

Sign Angel Pagan to play CF, especially if they are convinced that Hamilton needs time to learn the CF position. I think SF would consider letting him go with their top prospect being a fast, good hitting CF.

Give Pagan a two-year deal. Hamilton will be here in 2014, shift Pagan to LF, he can play all 3 OF positions with good success. Ludwick will probably be starting to look like Rolen by then anyway, might as well plan for it.

Second part, trade Leake and Stubbs. There will be a team that will take a chance on both of those guys, but I just don't see either of them finding success in Cincinnati. Too many small ballparks for Leake to pitch in, and Stubbs just isn't going to put it all together here, for sure. Tampa Bay might want Stubbs, they're gonna lose Upton most likely. Would a package of Leake and Stubbs get us one of their decent young pitchers? Niemann or Cobb mainly? I know Hellickson, Moore, Price, etc are not happening. But they might be inclined to deal one of those other 2, getting back a #5 guy and a CF. Preferably Cobb. He keeps the ball in the ballpark. 130+ innings, 11 homers allowed, and 5 of those came in the last month of the season. Of course those numbers would rise in GABP, but there's no way he'd give up as many as Leake, and that's what really kills Leake. That and people hit well against him. Cobb's BAA was under .250 this year, IIRC.

Last edited 10/15/2012 2:50 PM by wolfpack87

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/15/2012 3:14 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



wolfpack87 wrote:

 Would a package of Leake and Stubbs get us one of their decent young pitchers? Niemann or Cobb mainly?
Just FYI, Niemann will be 30 years old before next season starts.  Not that it makes a difference in your idea, just FYI
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/15/2012 5:21 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote:
wolfpack87 wrote:

 Would a package of Leake and Stubbs get us one of their decent young pitchers? Niemann or Cobb mainly?
Just FYI, Niemann will be 30 years old before next season starts.  Not that it makes a difference in your idea, just FYI
Didn't realize he was that old. I'd rather have Cobb since he's a sinkerball pitcher  either way. He doesn't have great stuff, but he has proven he can keep the ball down and keep the ball in the park. That's all I would ask for from a #4/5 guy anyway, just don't pitch like **** and give up homers.

Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/15/2012 8:39 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Put me in the group that leaves Chapman in the pen. He tuned into one of the best closers in the game. Plus, how many guys recently have moved from a big league bullpen to the rotation and had significant and lasting sucess? It's a really short list.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 10/16/2012 12:25 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Most guys go from failed stating pitchers to closers. Not the other way around. Adam Wainwright did it with ease. I just think it's a risk you have to take. As a closer, you statistically throw 1/3 of the innings you would as a starter. Chapman struggled when we threw him out there too many consecutive days. He was always a starter and dominated in Spring Training as one this year. You can always find another closer. You can't ever just sign some guy that throws 220 innings and keeps a 2.60 ERA, at least not with a franchise like ours. If he fails, you can always bring him back to the pen.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 10/16/2012 1:19 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


If we turn Chapman into a starter, he'll be on a major innings limit.  We don't want to get Strasburg'd...
Reply | Quote
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
< Prev.  Page of 5  Next >