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Changes for 2013

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Posted: 10/11/2012 5:53 PM

Changes for 2013 


Assuming the Mayan Calendar is wrong, the world doesn't end, and there is baseball next year, what changes do we see? Or do you want to see?

For one, I hope Leake has pitched his last game with the Reds. Probably a pipe dream, but he's just not getting any better and he just doesn't have the command or the brains to get away with not having good stuff. As much as I dislike Arroyo, I will give him credit that he normally understands the importance of control. For Leake, it's just not gonna happen. He was a 4 year college player, IIRC, and has been in the majors for 3 years. If he hasn't got it by now, he won't. 

Obviously I believe Frazier takes over at 3rd permanently. I hope we do bring Ludwick back. He is a professional hitter and not a defensive liability in LF. I hope we give Didi some playing time at SS, and I hope Mesoraco takes more of a step up and gets more starts over Hanigan.

Does Chapman move into the rotation? I have no idea on that.

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Posted: 10/11/2012 6:01 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


What I want...

Leake gone..
Rolen gone and Frazier at 3rd.
Stubbs gone...hopefully sign Victorino. I think he could be had for $5-6million. I could handle Heisey in CF if we use that money for someone else.
Resign Luddie.
Plug Hoover or Chapman into the starting lineup. Or better yet pick up a free agent starter.

Last edited 10/11/2012 6:03 PM by DocBuc

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Posted: 10/11/2012 6:10 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


I get rid of Brook Jacoby
I let Rolen and Cairo go to pasture
Trade Stubbs for something
Frazier is starting 3B
Re-sign Ludwick
OF depth (Sizemore, Pagan, Upton or do we dare to dream, Hamilton)?
Starting pitcher to beat out Leake (Maholm, Wolf)?
Re-sign Broxton (He will probably want to be the closer elsewhere)


Really, not sure. Reds won't sign anyone huge so got to look at middle of the pack players who fill holes. I really think signing Ludwick is huge. He came on since the All-Star break and is pretty solid. Nobody really out there that is better.

 

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  • dfaulkne
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Posted: 10/11/2012 6:22 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Agree with pretty much every point above....

I think the biggest issue is finding a leadoff guy to get on base. Would rather that not be Brandon Phillips. Cozart doesn't get on enough to bat 1st or 2nd.

Could you imagine a lineup of....

1. Michael Bourne (or, Billy Hamilton??)
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto
4. Ryan Ludwick
5. Jay Bruce
6. Todd Frazier
7. Zach Cozart
8. Ryan Hanigan

I'd move Chapman to the rotation yesterday, and send Leake to the pasture or bullpen.


Resign Broxton, he can be a closer. Closer's are overrated when you look into the numbers.

Rotation of

1. Cueto
2. Latos
3. Bailey
4. Chapman
5. Arroyo

Yea, that should work.

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Posted: 10/11/2012 9:35 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


A lot of what I'm going to say has already been mentioned, so bare with me.

  • For those expecting a splash at FA, don't, says John Fay. Even with a couple contracts expiring, some guys are going to need raises to stick around.
  • I'm a firm believer that Chapman NEEDS a shot at starting. Having a dynamite closer is nice, but starters pitch over 3 times the innings closers pitch. Who would you rather have, Mariano Rivera or Randy Johnson?
  • If we don't have cash, I think next year could be a "closer by committee". Our pen has enough depth to where I think that's possible. If we can afford it, bring Broxton back. If he isn't dominating, give Hoover a shot. I think he's the closer of the future, he's just not ready yet. Cingrani also has the makeup of being a stud, and if there isn't room in the rotation, throw him in the pen somewhere.
  • We've gotta just say sayonara to Stubbs. Enough is enough. Give CF to Heisey until Hamilton is ready.
  • Cozart at short, unless he slumps. Then give Didi some at-bats.

The rest is pretty set and stone. Lineup and rotation by the end of the year:

1. Hamilton CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Votto 1B
4. Ludwick LF
5. Bruce RF
6. Frazier 3B
7. Cozart SS
8. Hanigan C

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Bailey
SP Chapman
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Posted: 10/11/2012 11:27 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



UCbengal985 wrote: A lot of what I'm going to say has already been mentioned, so bare with me.

  • For those expecting a splash at FA, don't, says John Fay. Even with a couple contracts expiring, some guys are going to need raises to stick around.
  • I'm a firm believer that Chapman NEEDS a shot at starting. Having a dynamite closer is nice, but starters pitch over 3 times the innings closers pitch. Who would you rather have, Mariano Rivera or Randy Johnson?
  • If we don't have cash, I think next year could be a "closer by committee". Our pen has enough depth to where I think that's possible. If we can afford it, bring Broxton back. If he isn't dominating, give Hoover a shot. I think he's the closer of the future, he's just not ready yet. Cingrani also has the makeup of being a stud, and if there isn't room in the rotation, throw him in the pen somewhere.
  • We've gotta just say sayonara to Stubbs. Enough is enough. Give CF to Heisey until Hamilton is ready.
  • Cozart at short, unless he slumps. Then give Didi some at-bats.

The rest is pretty set and stone. Lineup and rotation by the end of the year:

1. Hamilton CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Votto 1B
4. Ludwick LF
5. Bruce RF
6. Frazier 3B
7. Cozart SS
8. Hanigan C

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Bailey
SP Chapman
Wouldn't mind platooning Hamilton and Heisey as well. I mean Hamilton can't possible hit less than .213 could he? And at least we know he will steal more bases.
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Posted: 10/12/2012 7:20 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


First order of business is fire Dusty aka mr potato head baker!! If I have to see his deer in the headlights look or put up with his buddy system bullshit anymore I'm gonna explode. Frasier was better than votto while he was injured and definitely better than Rowland yet only got at bats when all hope was lost? Funny how the tigers move on and we get our asses handed to us all because the skipper has no clue how to do his job..

       

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Posted: 10/12/2012 7:22 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Oh and cut stubs for god sakes. Yes he's fast , congrats but the guy couldn't hit a watermelon with a tennis racket.

       

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Posted: 10/12/2012 8:41 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??
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Posted: 10/12/2012 8:49 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 




---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
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Posted: 10/12/2012 9:45 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Dusty can not be back next season, someone has to be held responsible.
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Posted: 10/12/2012 10:06 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Listening to local radio on the way home, I have no idea who the host was, I was paying more attention to driving and putting as much distance between me and Cincinnati and that fiasco as I could. Anyway, whoever it was he was a former MLB player who wasn't shy about mentioning the fact that he played for 5 teams and that makes him "connected"....he "knows people"....and he said Dustys already signed a one year extension. It's a done deal. He didn't say when he thought they'd announce it.


I know that's nothing at all to put any faith in. Take it for what it's worth. We'll see.....
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Posted: 10/12/2012 10:17 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



DocBuc wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
Bailey was straight out of high school. Leake came out of college and has been here 3 years. Huge huge difference. Leake is a bust, just move on.

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Posted: 10/12/2012 11:44 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 


I'll go into more specifics in another post but here is the major problem I see...

How do you improve this team to win in the playoffs next year?

We can talk all day about replacing Leake in the starting rotation, but teams don't even use a 5 man rotation in the playoffs and the bullpen was the best in baseball and everyone but Broxton will be back.

I know I am in the minority here but I don't move Chapman to the rotation.  You have the best closer in baseball, so no matter who you get, you are weakening your bullpen there.  Then you move him to the rotation where you have no idea how he will perform.  He could be Johan Santana or Joba Chamberlain.  We have no idea.  I leave him where he's at and let him dominate.

Ludwick is not a long term solution in LF but could you ask for much more out of a starting LF than what he gave you?

CF & SS are the biggest areas of improvement.  You have a rookie SS and another guy at AAA getting close to ready.  Cozart is the starter and you just have to hope he improves.  I know we are all ready for Hamilton but he's got a few things going against him right now.  He's never played CF and has never played above the AA level.  I expect Stubbs will be back and Hamilton will be around mid-season at best.

Frazier over Rolen and a healthy Votto will certainly help but this team is going to be largely unchanged.  We just have to hope it improves
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Posted: 10/12/2012 11:46 AM

RE: Changes for 2013 


Love Rolen, but he's done. So I want Frazier at third every day. Chappy to the rotation, trade Leake. I'll give Stubbs one more year until Hamilton's ready. Definitely want Ludwick back. I'd like to see Madson and Broxton back if they can be had for a decent price. Madson could start out as a set-up guy that could move back to the closer's role if Hoover/Marshall/Broxton struggle in the closer's role.
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Posted: 10/12/2012 11:53 AM

Re: Changes for 2013 



wolfpack87 wrote:
DocBuc wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- merkrj wrote:

k i would say dont give up on leake ... how many years did it take bailey?? and all for chapman starting dont we still have madson coming back... i would say cairo, rolen, and valdez shouldnt be back other than that i see like 4 open spots... and idea trade pieces would be leake ondrusek and stubbs ... but what would we really need??

---------------------------------------------

I hear what you're saying about Leake but to me the difference is Bailey has dominating stuff, Leake doesn't. Also Madson has an $11 million dollar option with a 2.5 million dollar buyout for next year I believe.
Bailey was straight out of high school. Leake came out of college and has been here 3 years. Huge huge difference. Leake is a bust, just move on.
Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 8+ seasons now including parts of 6 seasons in the majors.  Leake played 3 years in college and 3 more in the majors without coming up through the minors.  There is a huge, huge difference and it's in Homer's favor
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:18 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



OhioRaiderNation wrote: I'll go into more specifics in another post but here is the major problem I see...

How do you improve this team to win in the playoffs next year?

We can talk all day about replacing Leake in the starting rotation, but teams don't even use a 5 man rotation in the playoffs and the bullpen was the best in baseball and everyone but Broxton will be back.

I know I am in the minority here but I don't move Chapman to the rotation.  You have the best closer in baseball, so no matter who you get, you are weakening your bullpen there.  Then you move him to the rotation where you have no idea how he will perform.  He could be Johan Santana or Joba Chamberlain.  We have no idea.  I leave him where he's at and let him dominate.

Ludwick is not a long term solution in LF but could you ask for much more out of a starting LF than what he gave you?

CF & SS are the biggest areas of improvement.  You have a rookie SS and another guy at AAA getting close to ready.  Cozart is the starter and you just have to hope he improves.  I know we are all ready for Hamilton but he's got a few things going against him right now.  He's never played CF and has never played above the AA level.  I expect Stubbs will be back and Hamilton will be around mid-season at best.

Frazier over Rolen and a healthy Votto will certainly help but this team is going to be largely unchanged.  We just have to hope it improves
And he still wasn't (playing CF) at AA ball was he??
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:21 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 



ChrisSabo wrote: Listening to local radio on the way home, I have no idea who the host was, I was paying more attention to driving and putting as much distance between me and Cincinnati and that fiasco as I could. Anyway, whoever it was he was a former MLB player who wasn't shy about mentioning the fact that he played for 5 teams and that makes him "connected"....he "knows people"....and he said Dustys already signed a one year extension. It's a done deal. He didn't say when he thought they'd announce it.


I know that's nothing at all to put any faith in. Take it for what it's worth. We'll see.....
I believe this to be true, too.  Only chance Dusty doesn't come back is if HE decides to retire for health reasons, which I seriously doubt occurs.


Also, no chance we resign Ludwick.  He will want multi-yrs and probably at least 7 or 8 million per year, and no chance the Reds do that.

Madson is tought, b/c no way do we pick up his option.  IIRC he is a Boras client, so little chance Madson gives the Reds a discount to include his $2.5mill buyout (given that buyout, con't see Reds paying more than $4 or $5mill in salary for him, to total 6.5 or 7.5mill).

Mgmt also seems to love Stubbs on Defense enough to keep trotting him out there until Billy Hamilton takes his spot, so don't expect any change there.

Other than adding a LF hitter, and maybe a closer/bullpen help, don't see many changes at all to this team...
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:30 PM

Re: Changes for 2013 


Chapman will not be a starting pitcher next year.  Not going to happen. 

Billy Hamilton may be in Cincinnati at some point, but it will be a SHOCK to see him in Cincy when they break to go North.

I wouldn't expect much in the way of a free agent signing a lot of guys are due raises even though Rolen is coming off the books. 

CF is a black hole and has been for a while.  You can afford to have a weak hitting SS, but not a weak hitting SS and CF.  I still say Cozart is a nice player, but I don't think he is a long term solution at SS.


 

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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:55 PM

RE: Changes for 2013 


Great site linked by Lance today with all the contract info you can imagine:


www.baseball-reference.com/tea...12-roster.shtml


might make a new thread with this as centerpiece -- contracts are almost equal to performance when looking at what if any changes the Reds can make
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