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Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread

Posted: 12/15/2012 9:34 PM

Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


With the lineup all but set, and intent to start Chapman clear, how do the Reds go about doing so?


As FB pointed out the other day, each SP can get up to 32 starts.  Assuming good health and ability, 200 IP is a decent goal/bench mark for a SP making those starts.


I can't see Chapman as anything except our 5th starter, if only for inning reasons.

Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman  (with Leake as a needed 6th starter)


We all know Dusty will put his stamp somewhere.  If the lineup is "dusty-proofed" as I have heard it called, I bet he goes with his belief of "breaking up the power rh arms" by throwing Arroyo ahead of Bailey.

As for Chappy, the 5th starter wouldn't get his 1st opportunity (b/c of schedule) until Weds April 10 at StL.  Add in the schedule-missing days of a 5th starter, and we wuld be down to approx 28 starts.  Pitch Leake in 6 of those starts, and Chapman is looking at 22 starts for approx 135 to 140 innings.  I am sure mgmt can use other ways to limit innings, but this is the best way, imo, to get Chapman into the SP role while also saving something for a (hopfully anyway) playoff run.


Putting Chapman anywhere else in the rotation during the reg season (note -- I'd hope he can perform well enough to be top 3 SP for a playoff rotation) just doesn't seem to make any sense given the track record of other starters and the club's primary need to protect Chappy from an innings and health standpoint.

Last edited 12/15/2012 9:35 PM by TauBag94

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Posted: 12/16/2012 12:01 PM

Re: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


I know my thinking on this goes against traditional baseball thinking but I suspect the Reds may decide to use Chapman in a non traditional role. I agree that they will limit him to about 22-24 starts but may decide to use him very occasionally in relief. That way they can pitch Leake when Chapman's turn would next come up while having the ability to use Chapman to close out a particularly relevant game (assuming he has had at least 2 days off since his last start). I also believe that for this year, I would expect that once we get to the playoffs he would return full time to the bullpen. There is no way Dusty won't be pitching Arroyo in the playoffs and I think Cueto, Latos and Bailey will definitely be in that rotation (assuming all are healthy).
TauBag94 wrote: With the lineup all but set, and intent to start Chapman clear, how do the Reds go about doing so?


As FB pointed out the other day, each SP can get up to 32 starts.  Assuming good health and ability, 200 IP is a decent goal/bench mark for a SP making those starts.


I can't see Chapman as anything except our 5th starter, if only for inning reasons.

Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman  (with Leake as a needed 6th starter)


We all know Dusty will put his stamp somewhere.  If the lineup is "dusty-proofed" as I have heard it called, I bet he goes with his belief of "breaking up the power rh arms" by throwing Arroyo ahead of Bailey.

As for Chappy, the 5th starter wouldn't get his 1st opportunity (b/c of schedule) until Weds April 10 at StL.  Add in the schedule-missing days of a 5th starter, and we wuld be down to approx 28 starts.  Pitch Leake in 6 of those starts, and Chapman is looking at 22 starts for approx 135 to 140 innings.  I am sure mgmt can use other ways to limit innings, but this is the best way, imo, to get Chapman into the SP role while also saving something for a (hopfully anyway) playoff run.


Putting Chapman anywhere else in the rotation during the reg season (note -- I'd hope he can perform well enough to be top 3 SP for a playoff rotation) just doesn't seem to make any sense given the track record of other starters and the club's primary need to protect Chappy from an innings and health standpoint.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 2:49 PM

Re: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 



TauBag94 wrote: With the lineup all but set, and intent to start Chapman clear, how do the Reds go about doing so?


As FB pointed out the other day, each SP can get up to 32 starts.  Assuming good health and ability, 200 IP is a decent goal/bench mark for a SP making those starts.


I can't see Chapman as anything except our 5th starter, if only for inning reasons.

Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman  (with Leake as a needed 6th starter)


We all know Dusty will put his stamp somewhere.  If the lineup is "dusty-proofed" as I have heard it called, I bet he goes with his belief of "breaking up the power rh arms" by throwing Arroyo ahead of Bailey.

As for Chappy, the 5th starter wouldn't get his 1st opportunity (b/c of schedule) until Weds April 10 at StL.  Add in the schedule-missing days of a 5th starter, and we wuld be down to approx 28 starts.  Pitch Leake in 6 of those starts, and Chapman is looking at 22 starts for approx 135 to 140 innings.  I am sure mgmt can use other ways to limit innings, but this is the best way, imo, to get Chapman into the SP role while also saving something for a (hopfully anyway) playoff run.


Putting Chapman anywhere else in the rotation during the reg season (note -- I'd hope he can perform well enough to be top 3 SP for a playoff rotation) just doesn't seem to make any sense given the track record of other starters and the club's primary need to protect Chappy from an innings and health standpoint.
+1
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Posted: 12/16/2012 3:17 PM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


DC,

Agree with using Chapman in relief on days when we was supposed to start, if only to keep that "every 5th day" mentality.


But as for the playoffs, should Chapman perform as the team hopes, there is no way -- none -- that he wouldn't start in a playoff series.

Playoff baseball is all about power arms beating tired bats. I realize that this is way to hypothetical and far away from actual time to discuss it, but should Chapman be ready, healthy, and productive, he will be a starter in the playoffs too...
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Posted: 12/16/2012 3:31 PM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


I would start him in the bullpen with Leake as the 5th starter and then switch their roles on a certain date. I would keep Leake in the bullpen for when/if Chapman only goes a few innings in a start.
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Posted: 12/16/2012 3:49 PM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


Issue with this is what to do with Chapman in Spring Training, and just how do we get him properly stretched out mid season?


I won't have big problem with it if the team takes RD's route. I just think that mgmt wants the chance for him to use Spring to get into a starter's mindset and keep everything as stable as possible after that. Also have to think that Bryan Price will be all over this -- I'd hope Chappy sits next to him and uses every pitch (thrown and viewed) as a chance to learn and get better.

We all agree we don't want a Strasburg situation, and no doubt the Reds will do their best to avoid that scenario. So long as Chapman doesn't get mindfarked and has some gas left in the tank come October, I don't care how we get from A to WS..
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Posted: 12/16/2012 8:18 PM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


A 5th starter, skip some starts, come outta the pen some to stay sharp when skipped.  Limit innings per game, strict pitch count.  I'df rather se lecure start than leake myself, either one though.  And this is all so that when the playoffs start he is ready to start and devour teams.
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Posted: 12/17/2012 12:46 AM

Re: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


I will lose alot of confidence in management if Chappy gets Strausborg'd next year.  They have to have a plan considering the playoffs are a minimum for this team.
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Posted: 12/17/2012 11:58 PM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


TauBag94, 

I am trying to think like Dusty (very scary); assuming all arms are healthy and the Reds are in the Playoffs and only in need of 4 starters, and assuming Cueto and Latos are locks and if Arroyo has a similar year to this past season and also assuming Bailey takes another positive step forward this season, I just think that with Dusty being Dusty he will move Chapman to the bullpen. Of course, we will have the entire baseball season to continue to speculate. In any event, I am really looking forward to this season, I may have to get me a season ticket plan so I can make sure I get to the playoffs
TauBag94 wrote: DC,

Agree with using Chapman in relief on days when we was supposed to start, if only to keep that "every 5th day" mentality.


But as for the playoffs, should Chapman perform as the team hopes, there is no way -- none -- that he wouldn't start in a playoff series.

Playoff baseball is all about power arms beating tired bats. I realize that this is way to hypothetical and far away from actual time to discuss it, but should Chapman be ready, healthy, and productive, he will be a starter in the playoffs too...
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Posted: 12/18/2012 8:53 AM

RE: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


The Reds have committed $21M to Broxton over the next three years. They didn't pony up that much cash for a set-up man.


I think the Strasburg shut-down was idiotic, but if the Reds do decide to be lemmings and follow, I would hope they save Chapman innings for the end of the season. I also don't have a problem with them being "overprotective" and erring on the side of caution if he detects a minor discomfort or appears to have lost some zip on his fastball.

There's a lot of unknown right now, but I think his performance over the regular season will make it clear whether he's in the post season rotation or not. Assuming we're in the post season again and fortunately we have good reason right now to anticipate it.

If Broxton steps up and handles closing duties and the rest of the relievers get the job done like they did this year, I don't see a reason to bring him out of the pen. If you're going to rest him, then rest him. It appears they made a good call to shut him down for a couple of weeks this past September and he was sharp going into post season. I only wish that we'd had more opportunities to run him out there.

Leake's a handy and affordable guy to have around. I see him having a significant role next year even though I can't tell you what it would be right now.

As far as mixing up the offspeed/power pitchers, that's one idea of Dusty's that I kind of like. I don't have quantitive data to back it up right and I'm speaking from intuition, but I'm thinking it worked pretty well. Of course the projected lineup right now has only one junkball pitcher so wherever he's in it he will be mixed in there.

As far as opening week schedule, I kind of liked the move they made in 2010 when they intentionally started Leake at AAA the first time through the rotation and used that spot for an extra hitter until they needed him the second time through. The Reds always have a day off after the opener and they can use it to get by with a four-man rotation for the first nine games. They haven't done it since. I suppose option limitations might make it difficult.

Check out news from the Reds development teams by clicking "Cincinnati Home" beneath the CincyHardball log above. 

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Posted: 12/18/2012 9:05 PM

Re: Call the Rotation... aka Where to put Chappy thread 


There's a bunch of ways to go about it, but the easiest might be just pitching him normally and shutting him down for a month+ in July for "shoulder soreness" or something.  I don't really trust Dustball to manage him right otherwise.
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