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2013 outfield

Posted: 10/8/2012 10:53 AM

2013 outfield 


Cubs were #4 in team OBP out of the lead-off spot in 2012. Most of those plate appearances came from Dejesus and his OBP in the lead-off spot was better than the overall team average. The Cubs were also 10th in OPS out of the lead-off spot. Clearly DD was not the problem, he can play all three OF spots and he gets on base at the top of the order. The Cubs will need to sign 2 OF this winter.

#1 - either a RF or CF with DD playing the other spot

#2 - A RH compliment to DD. DD has a career split of 150 points lower vs lefties in OPS.

Who do they get? Stop gap or long term? High on base or power hitter? a #2 hitter with speed or a #5 with power? LH or RH? What are the options?
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Posted: 10/8/2012 11:28 AM

Re: 2013 outfield 



absolutebadger wrote: Cubs were #4 in team OBP out of the lead-off spot in 2012. Most of those plate appearances came from Dejesus and his OBP in the lead-off spot was better than the overall team average. The Cubs were also 10th in OPS out of the lead-off spot. Clearly DD was not the problem, he can play all three OF spots and he gets on base at the top of the order. The Cubs will need to sign 2 OF this winter.

#1 - either a RF or CF with DD playing the other spot

#2 - A RH compliment to DD. DD has a career split of 150 points lower vs lefties in OPS.

Who do they get? Stop gap or long term? High on base or power hitter? a #2 hitter with speed or a #5 with power? LH or RH? What are the options?
You can not base Dejesus on his ranking out of the leadoff spot. Look at him compared to other RF's

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0

Dejesus ability to play all 3 OF spots and his inability to hit left handed pitching makes him an ideal 4th OF. But with the lack of major league talent he will need to start.

I would rather not sign anymore stop gap options.
I would like them to look at BJ Upton for the OF
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Posted: 10/8/2012 11:54 AM

Re: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote: Cubs were #4 in team OBP out of the lead-off spot in 2012. Most of those plate appearances came from Dejesus and his OBP in the lead-off spot was better than the overall team average. The Cubs were also 10th in OPS out of the lead-off spot. Clearly DD was not the problem, he can play all three OF spots and he gets on base at the top of the order. The Cubs will need to sign 2 OF this winter.

#1 - either a RF or CF with DD playing the other spot

#2 - A RH compliment to DD. DD has a career split of 150 points lower vs lefties in OPS.

Who do they get? Stop gap or long term? High on base or power hitter? a #2 hitter with speed or a #5 with power? LH or RH? What are the options?
You can not base Dejesus on his ranking out of the leadoff spot. Look at him compared to other RF's

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0

Dejesus ability to play all 3 OF spots and his inability to hit left handed pitching makes him an ideal 4th OF. But with the lack of major league talent he will need to start.

I would rather not sign anymore stop gap options.
I would like them to look at BJ Upton for the OF
No, his 800+ OPS against RH pitching and his ability to play CF make him a starter in 70% of the games. That is not a 4th. The guy that comes in for 150 ABs during the season is the 4th. Think Reed Johnson. The cubs have the option to look for either since DD can play either, but they would be well served to eliminate his LH AB's. With the right platoon the Cubs could have one of the more productive lead off spots in the NL.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 1:00 PM

Re: 2013 outfield 



absolutebadger wrote:
 
No, his 800+ OPS against RH pitching and his ability to play CF make him a starter in 70% of the games. That is not a 4th. The guy that comes in for 150 ABs during the season is the 4th. Think Reed Johnson. The cubs have the option to look for either since DD can play either, but they would be well served to eliminate his LH AB's. With the right platoon the Cubs could have one of the more productive lead off spots in the NL.
It all depends on how you define a 4th OF. Some teams use a player in multiple OF positions and gets close to that 400 ab's and would be a 4th OF. 

Sappelt could be the platoon partner with Dejesus.

They still need another OF and Upton is young enough so they are paying for future performance and has the speed, power and defense to fit in to long term plans.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:52 PM

Re: 2013 outfield 


I would not mind to see the Cubs go after Pagan for a 2-3 year deal.  He can play all three OF positions and is a switch hitter.  It would give the Cubs some flexibility to trade Soriano and DeJesus if need be.  He can hit anywhere in the line-up including leading off.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 8:20 AM

Re: 2013 outfield 



tjtrigo wrote: I would not mind to see the Cubs go after Pagan for a 2-3 year deal.  He can play all three OF positions and is a switch hitter.  It would give the Cubs some flexibility to trade Soriano and DeJesus if need be.  He can hit anywhere in the line-up including leading off.

As long as he took a short deal like that, I be for that as well. Throw in center to start the season and let it all play out. Soriano/Pagan/DeJesus would be solid defensively and like you said, the Cubs would have flexability to eventually phase all 3 out if they wished.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 9:06 AM

Re: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
 
No, his 800+ OPS against RH pitching and his ability to play CF make him a starter in 70% of the games. That is not a 4th. The guy that comes in for 150 ABs during the season is the 4th. Think Reed Johnson. The cubs have the option to look for either since DD can play either, but they would be well served to eliminate his LH AB's. With the right platoon the Cubs could have one of the more productive lead off spots in the NL.
It all depends on how you define a 4th OF. Some teams use a player in multiple OF positions and gets close to that 400 ab's and would be a 4th OF. 

Sappelt could be the platoon partner with Dejesus.

They still need another OF and Upton is young enough so they are paying for future performance and has the speed, power and defense to fit in to long term plans.
If Upton can be had for 5/60, like the article below suggests, then I think he would be a great addition. It is a little concerning that walks are down and K's are up and that his OBP dropped 40 points in 1 year, but he is a rare power/speed player. The Cubs will need to replace all three OF spots in the next 2 years, and while there are plenty of prospects, you can't have three players with no MLB experience roaming the OF together.

Don't hold your breath on Jackson making a difference. Unless he can cut the K's in half, he won't be an everyday player.

Here are some predictions for FA players: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20319 261/early-predictions-on-possible-deals-for-top-10 -free-agents-including-hamilton-greinke-upton
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Posted: 10/9/2012 9:06 AM

Re: 2013 outfield 



tjtrigo wrote: I would not mind to see the Cubs go after Pagan for a 2-3 year deal.  He can play all three OF positions and is a switch hitter.  It would give the Cubs some flexibility to trade Soriano and DeJesus if need be.  He can hit anywhere in the line-up including leading off.
He is a good fit if you want to go the stop gap route. Do you want to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in 2013 or 2014 ? 

Why not try and start filling these positions that help both short term & long term ?
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Posted: 10/9/2012 9:41 AM

RE: 2013 outfield 


I know Upton adds a lot of value with his legs and his glove, but the guy really just isn't that good of a hitter. We now have several years of evidence showing that his .300/.386/.508 in 2007 was the exception and not the rule. He's a .750 OPS player. Do we really want to be on the hook for 5 years of that as passes 30 and his speed starts to go?
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Posted: 10/9/2012 10:30 AM

RE: 2013 outfield 



DoubleDown11 wrote: I know Upton adds a lot of value with his legs and his glove, but the guy really just isn't that good of a hitter. We now have several years of evidence showing that his .300/.386/.508 in 2007 was the exception and not the rule. He's a .750 OPS player. Do we really want to be on the hook for 5 years of that as passes 30 and his speed starts to go?
Every player has flaws - Sooner or later you are going to have to take that risk and invest on that player to improve the team. He is 28 and has a number of his prime years ahead of him. Your prime is basically ages 27-32 so he qualifies for paying for future performance.

He is coming off a year with 28 HR's and 31 SB's. His defense is still good and will be for the next 5 years. Yes I would take a chance on him for the next 5 years.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 11:03 AM

RE: 2013 outfield 


I'd love either Upton or Pagan but I think decent production from them plus a weak FA group is gonna drive their prices over what they are worth.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs go after Upton in the 10-12 mil range at 4 or 5 years but also wouldn't be surprised to see Theo (maybe not Jed) run screaming from another Rays outfielder with a large asking price.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 12:10 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
DoubleDown11 wrote: I know Upton adds a lot of value with his legs and his glove, but the guy really just isn't that good of a hitter. We now have several years of evidence showing that his .300/.386/.508 in 2007 was the exception and not the rule. He's a .750 OPS player. Do we really want to be on the hook for 5 years of that as passes 30 and his speed starts to go?
Every player has flaws - Sooner or later you are going to have to take that risk and invest on that player to improve the team. He is 28 and has a number of his prime years ahead of him. Your prime is basically ages 27-32 so he qualifies for paying for future performance.

He is coming off a year with 28 HR's and 31 SB's. His defense is still good and will be for the next 5 years. Yes I would take a chance on him for the next 5 years.
Not hitting well is a pretty big flaw. Even if we assume that his 2012 numbers will continue, his OPS this year is .752. DeJesus, whom you hate, has an OPS in 2012 of...drum roll..  .753 eek. Why pay big bucks and lock in for 5 years for a guy that is worse than the guy you declare to be a 4th OF? And DeJesus is better when you consider that he has a very fixable issue ...he totally can't hit lefties. You platoon DeJesus with a cheap guy that hits lefties well (Reed Johnson?) to end up with a guy better than Upton for much cheaper.

As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 12:17 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 


Upton wont be in their price range. Pagan might.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 12:27 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



SportsGoblin wrote:
Not hitting well is a pretty big flaw. Even if we assume that his 2012 numbers will continue, his OPS this year is .752. DeJesus, whom you hate, has an OPS in 2012 of...drum roll..  .753 eek. Why pay big bucks and lock in for 5 years for a guy that is worse than the guy you declare to be a 4th OF? And DeJesus is better when you consider that he has a very fixable issue ...he totally can't hit lefties. You platoon DeJesus with a cheap guy that hits lefties well (Reed Johnson?) to end up with a guy better than Upton for much cheaper.

As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
I have never said I hate Dejesus - I have said his production is in the bottom 1/3 of RF's.
Dejesus is 33 this December so he is now past his prime and will not be part of the future of this team.

Upton is in the top 1/3 of CF's and is 28 next year. Compare Upton vs Dejesus in HR's, SB's and defense.

Even if you keep Soriano & Dejesus you need another OF. Then by next season you need to replace Dejesus and if Soriano makes through his entire contract he will need to be replaced sfter 2014. So there is a need for an OF. No matter what player is mentioned they will have flaws or some type of concern.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 12:56 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



SportsGoblin wrote: As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
+1

I fully admit that neither DeJesus OR Soriano are going anywhere this offseason unless the Cubs get a good return.
They will be starting in the corners slot with a new CF unless the Cubs find a power hitting RF and they move DeJesus to center for the time being.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 12:59 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



PorkChopExpress12 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote: As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
+1

I fully admit that neither DeJesus OR Soriano are going anywhere this offseason unless the Cubs get a good return.
They will be starting in the corners slot with a new CF unless the Cubs find a power hitting RF and they move DeJesus to center for the time being.
You need to add an OF. It was a given that Soriano & Dejesus are back.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 1:19 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
DoubleDown11 wrote: I know Upton adds a lot of value with his legs and his glove, but the guy really just isn't that good of a hitter. We now have several years of evidence showing that his .300/.386/.508 in 2007 was the exception and not the rule. He's a .750 OPS player. Do we really want to be on the hook for 5 years of that as passes 30 and his speed starts to go?
Every player has flaws - Sooner or later you are going to have to take that risk and invest on that player to improve the team. He is 28 and has a number of his prime years ahead of him. Your prime is basically ages 27-32 so he qualifies for paying for future performance.

He is coming off a year with 28 HR's and 31 SB's. His defense is still good and will be for the next 5 years. Yes I would take a chance on him for the next 5 years.

His stolen bases have gone from 42 to 36 to 31 over the last 3 years and some of the defensive metrics indicate that he's not covering as much ground as he once did either, so there are signs that his speed is already not what it once was.

I admit that there are a lot of metrics where he rates very well, and maybe I am biased against him, but where I live I have the opportunity to see him play a lot, and day in and day out the guy just isn't the player that his reputation suggests he is.  I can guarantee you that Rays fans (yes, they do exist) won't be shedding a tear when he leaves town.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 1:27 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Not hitting well is a pretty big flaw. Even if we assume that his 2012 numbers will continue, his OPS this year is .752. DeJesus, whom you hate, has an OPS in 2012 of...drum roll..  .753 eek. Why pay big bucks and lock in for 5 years for a guy that is worse than the guy you declare to be a 4th OF? And DeJesus is better when you consider that he has a very fixable issue ...he totally can't hit lefties. You platoon DeJesus with a cheap guy that hits lefties well (Reed Johnson?) to end up with a guy better than Upton for much cheaper.

As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
I have never said I hate Dejesus - I have said his production is in the bottom 1/3 of RF's.
Dejesus is 33 this December so he is now past his prime and will not be part of the future of this team.

Upton is in the top 1/3 of CF's and is 28 next year. Compare Upton vs Dejesus in HR's, SB's and defense.

Even if you keep Soriano & Dejesus you need another OF. Then by next season you need to replace Dejesus and if Soriano makes through his entire contract he will need to be replaced sfter 2014. So there is a need for an OF. No matter what player is mentioned they will have flaws or some type of concern.
How about instead I compare DeJesus vs Upton on BA, OBP, OPS? DeJesus was way better in the first two and better in the 3rd. Add the platoon and he is much better for OPS as well.

So, age and defense are important? Then you must love our 26-year-old gold glove candidate at 2B. No, that's right. You want Barney on the bench as a utility guy.

The more I think about it, you wanting to sign a 28-year-old outfielder that hits HRs and steals bases but hits for a low average and low OBP....you want us to sign a poor-man's version of a guy we already have, Alfonso Soriano! biggrin  Evidently, you enjoyed watching the SBs go away immediately and the overall regression so much the first time you are hoping to see it again?
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Posted: 10/9/2012 1:36 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



cubs2007 wrote:
PorkChopExpress12 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote: As for platoon or stopgap guys to get us to Almora, Soler, Jackson, etc. we have some of those guys. They are the previously mentioned DeJesus platoon and, of course, Soriano. Soriano had an OPS of 0.821 for 2012, and we are paying him the next two years anyway, so unless we get a good return for him, there is no reason to trade him only to play a worse player in Upton instead.
+1

I fully admit that neither DeJesus OR Soriano are going anywhere this offseason unless the Cubs get a good return.
They will be starting in the corners slot with a new CF unless the Cubs find a power hitting RF and they move DeJesus to center for the time being.
You need to add an OF. It was a given that Soriano & Dejesus are back.
Sappelt, Jackson, Campana, LaHair....they might want to see if any of these guys are worth anything. The only way to see that and/or to raise their value is to play them.

But the Cubs will be bad, you opine. If this is true, then BJ Upton most assuredly will not prevent that. Yes, he hits HRs, but those are some empty stats as again he had a lower OPS than DeJesus for goodness sakes.

I'm totally fine with them eliminating the Jackson/Campana/Sappelt/LaHair carousel if they want to fill an OF spot with a difference maker. BJ Upton is not that guy. Get me Justin Upton and now we're talking....
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Posted: 10/9/2012 2:12 PM

RE: 2013 outfield 



SportsGoblin wrote:
How about instead I compare DeJesus vs Upton on BA, OBP, OPS? DeJesus was way better in the first two and better in the 3rd. Add the platoon and he is much better for OPS as well.

So, age and defense are important? Then you must love our 26-year-old gold glove candidate at 2B. No, that's right. You want Barney on the bench as a utility guy.

The more I think about it, you wanting to sign a 28-year-old outfielder that hits HRs and steals bases but hits for a low average and low OBP....you want us to sign a poor-man's version of a guy we already have, Alfonso Soriano! Evidently, you enjoyed watching the SBs go away immediately and the overall regression so much the first time you are hoping to see it again?
Dejesus - Baseball Reference WAR 1.6, Fangraphs 1.7
Upton - Baseball Reference WAR 2.6, Fangraphs 3.3

Upton is 5 years younger - He fits the pay for future performance while Dejesus is a stop gap

Upton is a good defensive player and Soriano was a terrible defensive OF. There are some comparisons you can make and very few players have the power / speed combination these 2 players have. Upton would be a couple years younger than when the Cubs acquired Soriano and Soriano had injuries that stopped his stolen base attempts. You can't project injuries for Upton.

I have said Barney will be a starter next year because of his glove. He will not have a defensive rating that inflates his numbers again. Look at his offensive numbers and they would rank 29th in OPS among 2b. He is just not a good offensive player and someday will be a utility player.
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