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Who is the next Maholm?

Posted: 9/30/2012 10:41 AM

Who is the next Maholm? 


Let's assume the Cubs don't open up the checkbook and pay for Greinke or another ace. They might instead go with a value signing, which they used to great effect in signing Maholm and then turning him (and Reed Johnson) into Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman. Nice move.

So who is the Maholm for 2013? I guess the best way to see the next Maholm is to look at the 2011 Maholm:
3.66 ERA, 1.9 WAR, 6-14 record. Very good numbers except the wins, which he had no control over. The W-L record may have served to drive down his price, however, and a 5.10 ERA in 2010 I'm sure did the same. A WAR of 2.0 is estimated at $8-10M, and the Cubs got it for $4.75M, with a very important 2013 club option for $6.5M.

Anibal Sanchez 3.5 WAR, 9-13, 3.95 ERA
Joe Saunders 2.5 WAR, 8-13, 4.09 ERA
Edwin Jackson 2.4WAR, 9-11, 4.13ERA
Joe Blanton 2.4WAR, 10-13, 4.71ERA
Paul Maholm 2.4WAR , 13-10 
Kevin Millwood, 2.0WAR, 6-12, 4.25ERA


Eliminate Maholm, as I expect the option to be picked up. Millwood is probably too old to attract someone in a trade, so unless the price was really good, I think they pass.

From the above, I notice that Jackson did not deliver as much (WAR-wise) as I had thought, but he will probably be expensive. I would maybe target Saunders and Sanchez, with a thought for Blanton if the price is really right. Blanton's numbers I think would be much better at Wrigley.


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Posted: 9/30/2012 1:20 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


Vizcaino and Chapman could be a very nice return on Maholm. The prediction threads for next season have kind of looked past this trade.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 3:59 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


I'd kick the tires on Scott Baker: 

http://bleacherreport.com/arti...my-john-surgery

There's no way that Minnesota's going to pick up his $9.25m option for 2013, much less make him a qualifying offer, which makes him a good candidate for a compensation-free pickup.  The Cubs could offer him something like $5m guaranteed + incentives with a mutual option for 2014; there's almost no downside to a deal like that from Theo & Jed's point-of-view.  If it works out, great--and if it doesn't, it's not like you're tied to a Zito-esque cluster(bleep) of a contract.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 6:01 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



absolutebadger wrote: Vizcaino and Chapman could be a very nice return on Maholm. The prediction threads for next season have kind of looked past this trade.

Best case scenario is probably Vizcaino as a setup man for the Cubs in 2013.  Maybe Chapman figures into the bullpen mix too.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 6:03 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


How about Francisco Liriano? He wasn't good this year, but could bounce back and be decent next year.  Maybe he gets a 1-yr deal and spends a half season with the Cubs.  The White Sox got him for nothing from their rival, so I don't think he's highly regarded around the league and may fall to the Cubs.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 6:11 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



doughboy981 wrote: How about Francisco Liriano? He wasn't good this year, but could bounce back and be decent next year.  Maybe he gets a 1-yr deal and spends a half season with the Cubs.  The White Sox got him for nothing from their rival, so I don't think he's highly regarded around the league and may fall to the Cubs.

This. He's worth a shot.
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Posted: 9/30/2012 7:57 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



doughboy981 wrote: How about Francisco Liriano? He wasn't good this year, but could bounce back and be decent next year.  Maybe he gets a 1-yr deal and spends a half season with the Cubs.  The White Sox got him for nothing from their rival, so I don't think he's highly regarded around the league and may fall to the Cubs.
Might be worth taking a chance on him...maybe a change of leagues would help.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 8:26 AM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



absolutebadger wrote: Vizcaino and Chapman could be a very nice return on Maholm. The prediction threads for next season have kind of looked past this trade.
The reason this trade isn't getting the fans excited is there most likely isn't much help for next season. Even if Vizcaino can start he will be limited to a 100 innings. There is a lot of debate  if Vizcaino can stay healthy, get his velocity back and can he stay a starter or go to the bullpen. As for Chapman he is just another guy you can throw in the competition for middle relief.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 9:03 AM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


Vizcaino makes more sense in the bullpen for now. Chapman should also be in the bullpen mix next season.

I kick the tires on about all the names that were listed in this thread including Liriano. They aren't going to find a 1 or a 2 via FA but they can find a couple pitchers to fill out those 3 and 4 slots along with adding more depth to the organization in terms of starting pitching. They need it.

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Posted: 10/1/2012 10:02 AM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:32 AM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



cubs2007 wrote: I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
There were at least 5 pitchers and maybe as many as 10, other than Maholm that signed this past off season for little money that performed well beyond their compensation. I don't care how long you have been posting.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:40 AM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 


Throw these two into the hopper as well:

Carlos Villanueva
Scott Feldman

Neither one is likely to draw a qualifying offer from his current club, and both are experienced AL starters who could benefit from a change of scenery.  Could be good values...

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Posted: 10/1/2012 12:16 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
There were at least 5 pitchers and maybe as many as 10, other than Maholm that signed this past off season for little money that performed well beyond their compensation. I don't care how long you have been posting.
I'd be interested in seeing the names of these 5-10 pitchers that signed cheap and performed well this past season.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 12:59 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
There were at least 5 pitchers and maybe as many as 10, other than Maholm that signed this past off season for little money that performed well beyond their compensation. I don't care how long you have been posting.
I'd be interested in seeing the names of these 5-10 pitchers that signed cheap and performed well this past season.
MLB FA signing MLB contracts

Bedard 1/4.5
Saunders 1/6
Colon 1/2
Capuano 2/10
Chen 2/9
Harang 2/12
Millwood 1/1

International FA signing MLB contracts
Iwakuma 1/1.5
Chen 3/11

Also a handful of minor league deals where the pitcher ended up with 100+ MLB innings.

These deals are out there every year. The trick is pick the right guys.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:07 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
There were at least 5 pitchers and maybe as many as 10, other than Maholm that signed this past off season for little money that performed well beyond their compensation. I don't care how long you have been posting.
I'd be interested in seeing the names of these 5-10 pitchers that signed cheap and performed well this past season.
MLB FA signing MLB contracts

Bedard 1/4.5
Saunders 1/6
Colon 1/2
Capuano 2/10
Chen 2/9
Harang 2/12
Millwood 1/1

International FA signing MLB contracts
Iwakuma 1/1.5
Chen 3/11

Also a handful of minor league deals where the pitcher ended up with 100+ MLB innings.

These deals are out there every year. The trick is pick the right guys.
I was wrong - there are a few Maholm type signings last year

The problem I have is if the Cubs can pick the right underachieving starting pitcher and sign that player short term does it really help them. Are you just signing a stop gap or hoping to flip for prospects at the deadline ?
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:09 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: I have been posting for awhile that it will be difficult to find a pitcher like Maholm that can provide the level of performance for a good value. Most free agent pitchers will either price themselves out of what the Cubs will want to pay per year or want to sign for 3+ year which does not fit the current rebuild model.
There were at least 5 pitchers and maybe as many as 10, other than Maholm that signed this past off season for little money that performed well beyond their compensation. I don't care how long you have been posting.
I'd be interested in seeing the names of these 5-10 pitchers that signed cheap and performed well this past season.
MLB FA signing MLB contracts

Bedard 1/4.5
Saunders 1/6
Colon 1/2
Capuano 2/10
Chen 2/9
Harang 2/12
Millwood 1/1

International FA signing MLB contracts
Iwakuma 1/1.5
Chen 3/11

Also a handful of minor league deals where the pitcher ended up with 100+ MLB innings.

These deals are out there every year. The trick is pick the right guys.
I was wrong - there are a few Maholm type signings last year

The problem I have is if the Cubs can pick the right underachieving starting pitcher and sign that player short term does it really help them. Are you just signing a stop gap or hoping to flip for prospects at the deadline ?
Maholm ended up turning into a nice flip. Worst case scenario, the Cubs picked up a couple more bullpen options for him. Best case scenario, Chapman sticks as a bullpen guy, Viscaino plays 2013 as a bullpen guy  or starter for a few starts and then turns into a starter for 2014.

So no question, if they sign another value guy, this is exactly what they are hoping for. If they don't flip him, they keep him to help roll out a watchable product for cheap until their prospects are ready to be called up to help. Camp would be an example of the later, probably because they received no trade offers of substance for him.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:21 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



SportsGoblin wrote:
 
Maholm ended up turning into a nice flip. Worst case scenario, the Cubs picked up a couple more bullpen options for him. Best case scenario, Chapman sticks as a bullpen guy, Viscaino plays 2013 as a bullpen guy  or starter for a few starts and then turns into a starter for 2014.

So no question, if they sign another value guy, this is exactly what they are hoping for. If they don't flip him, they keep him to help roll out a watchable product for cheap until their prospects are ready to be called up to help. Camp would be an example of the later, probably because they received no trade offers of substance for him.
You are taking a chance on trying to sign under-performing cheap pitcher(s) and hope you get a overachieving starter. The odds aren't good of hitting on these type players and using that as your model of rebuilding a team. Your worst case scenario is the player you sign is a bust and you can not flip and he does not help the team and needs to be replaced.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:27 PM

RE: Who is the next Maholm? 


Good thread. Obviously you want to focus on player development and making moves for established talent, but striking gold with under the radar players has helped a lot of organizations in the last few years. Just about every contending team this year has at least one key player who was either picked up off the scrap heap, or acquired in a minor trade.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:32 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



cubs2007 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
 
Maholm ended up turning into a nice flip. Worst case scenario, the Cubs picked up a couple more bullpen options for him. Best case scenario, Chapman sticks as a bullpen guy, Viscaino plays 2013 as a bullpen guy  or starter for a few starts and then turns into a starter for 2014.

So no question, if they sign another value guy, this is exactly what they are hoping for. If they don't flip him, they keep him to help roll out a watchable product for cheap until their prospects are ready to be called up to help. Camp would be an example of the later, probably because they received no trade offers of substance for him.
You are taking a chance on trying to sign under-performing cheap pitcher(s) and hope you get a overachieving starter. The odds aren't good of hitting on these type players and using that as your model of rebuilding a team. Your worst case scenario is the player you sign is a bust and you can not flip and he does not help the team and needs to be replaced.
If that is the only piece of the model then you are in serious trouble. I think the model must be in flux depending on the results of the team around the all star break. Vizcaino is obtained in a dreadful year, but he may be an important piece to a future trade for a 3 month rental.

The Maholm type deals are important for all teams and are always out there. Having a poor season and flipping them for prospects is much harder. Vizcaino was a top 40 prospect and was a great get for a career #4/5. If Maholm went out and was just an average pitcher every start he doesn't attract a top prospect. He was worth more because he was very hot at the time of the deadline.
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:54 PM

Re: Who is the next Maholm? 



absolutebadger wrote:
 
If that is the only piece of the model then you are in serious trouble. I think the model must be in flux depending on the results of the team around the all star break. Vizcaino is obtained in a dreadful year, but he may be an important piece to a future trade for a 3 month rental.

The Maholm type deals are important for all teams and are always out there. Having a poor season and flipping them for prospects is much harder. Vizcaino was a top 40 prospect and was a great get for a career #4/5. If Maholm went out and was just an average pitcher every start he doesn't attract a top prospect. He was worth more because he was very hot at the time of the deadline.
It wasn't just a 3 month rental - He had an affordable option so it really was a 1 year 3 month trade for a pitcher sitting out the year with an injury.

Many are talking like this is already a successful trade and no one knows if Vizcaino can start or pitch out of the bullpen or even stay injury free. 

You were lucky he was a hot pitcher and the Dempster deal fell through. I think Maholm is better than a 4/5 and while Vizcaino is talented he is a health risk.
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