A friend of mine sent me this article, so I figured I should pass it along to others who enjoy misery. This is a Cubs prospect chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis, conducted in 2002. Names mentioned: David Kelton; Brendan Harris; Angel Guzman; Juan Cruz. Ouch.

http://www.baseballamerica.com...chat020703.html

ChrisEmmaNR wrote: A friend of mine sent me this article, so I figured I should pass it along to others who enjoy misery. This is a Cubs prospect chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis, conducted in 2002. Names mentioned: David Kelton; Brendan Harris; Angel Guzman; Juan Cruz. Ouch.

http://www.baseballamerica.com...chat020703.html

Is there an alternative?

One of the (many) painful statements from that chat: "Prior's mechanics and work ethic are so far ahead of Wood's, I don't see him getting hurt."

Interesting read. It makes one wonder if one of the Cubs issues during the Hendry era was believing stuff like this. Perhaps Callis just isn't good at assessing prospects, yet it felt good to believe him, because he gushed over the Cubs. This also made people believe that Hendry was outstanding at talent assessment (BA says the Cubs have a great system, and Hendry was the farm director; ergo, Hendry is a great talent evaluator).

I remember having issues with his Kelton versus Hinske comparison going way back. Hinskie's minor league performance was superior to Kelton's, yet Callis always insisted Kelton was a hitting star. Though Hinske was no star, he's played a decade in the majors and had an OPS of .769 over about 4000 PAs. Kelton had 22 PAs in the majors, and his minor league OPS was a hair lower than Hinske's major league OPS. My quibble was that Kelton couldn't reach .800 as an OPS in any of the upper minors, yet he was called a hitting star. Say what?

I used to believe in the BA approach, with the Kelton issue being an exception in my mind. Now, I must concede that the skeptics were correct. I didn't drink the BA/Hendry koolaid on Kelton, but I did on Pie, Patterson, Juan Cruz, etc., etc. No more.

Some real gems in that article. He'd take Cruz over Big Z (oops), Brendon Harris a future blue-chip prospect, Nic Jackson comparable to Brian Jordan, Angel Guzman is a #1 starter type, Bobby Hill will be the lead off man for years, etc.

Choi, Pie, Jackson, Kelton, Brendon Harris, Dopirak, Brandon Sing, Montanez, Alfredo Francisco were our top hitting prospects. Many of the people thought were legit budding major league caliber starting players. None of them ever sniffed success in the bigs except for Choi (didn't he have an okay year for Florida?).

This just reiterates how frustrating and sometimes pointless following the minor league guys can be. So much talent, ZERO to show for it 10 years later. Some of the guys that he kind of brushed aside as marginal talents (Nolasco, Mitre, Theriot) ended up having the best (at least longest) major league careers out of all those guys.

Very difficult to project low minors players. One day they look like sure fire hits, then they post. 590 ops at the next level. I remember the hype on Harris and Hill, it was legit and both guy were athletic. I took a road trip to see Hill. Just didn't work out. So that bodes ominously for Concepcion and Baez becasue I plan on seeing them this summer as well

Guzman was the real deal as well, then the injuries hit him just before they attacked Prior.

I've often written that 2003 offseason had me on the highes Cubs high ive ever been on. Studs in the rotation and a system loaded with talent up and down. Young talent built for sustainable success.

What a collection of forgettable names in that article. The Cubs have really had issues in the minors in the past. Guy never developed much back then.

Not saying things are great now, but at least some guys have come up and contributed.

I saw Bobby Hill a ton in college. His Miami teams had four future big leaguers in the lineup and he turned out to be the only one of the four that didn't make it long term. He was definitely athletic enough, but in the end he turned out to be just another of the dozens of college superstars from late 90's who just couldn't hit with a wood bat.

I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

Sorry. 1/2 million misses.

RAMBLE wrote:

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

Sorry. 1/2 million misses.

Try a calculator.

KatieCubFan wrote:

RAMBLE wrote:

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

Sorry. 1/2 million misses.

Try a calculator.

Calculator says E.

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

KatieCubFan wrote:

RAMBLE wrote:

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

Sorry. 1/2 million misses.

Try a calculator.

Calculator says E.

---------------------------------------------
It should say, "1000".

It is a lot of misses; I definitely agree with your conclusion.

i think this article really exemplifies one of the lesser discussed problems of the hendry regime. surely this article is a negative indictment of the instructors in place at the minor league level. we had several legitimately talented kids, but almost nobody developed into baseball players.

so in addition to mediocre draft strategy, we had nobody in place to help these kids progress.

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

KatieCubFan wrote:

RAMBLE wrote:

cubs08 wrote:

---------------------------------------------
--- RAMBLE wrote:

shhadow wrote: I've said this before: I don't see how an organization can miss on every position prospect for 15-20 years. Even the Pirates and Royals have developed position players.

I still believe that the philosophy of the organization as a whole, and the development philosophy at the farm system level needed a dramatic overhaul. (pre-Ricketts+Epstein)

If I remember correctly, when Hendry was moved to GM, he had discussed building the team through power arms [and power hitters]. And for the last decade, none of those power arms materialized. (I don't count Prior, because I still blame Baker's all-in approach in 2003 for his arm problems.)

And you get 50 draft picks every year. So, that's 50 X 20 years=1 million misses.

---------------------------------------------
You may want to check your math.

Sorry. 1/2 million misses.

Try a calculator.

Calculator says E.

---------------------------------------------
It should say, "1000".

It is a lot of misses; I definitely agree with your conclusion.

Well, I love baseball fans and their statistical "bent".