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Chris Coghlan

Posted: 8/12/2014 2:20 PM

Chris Coghlan 


http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com...f-chris-coghlan


Nice article about what a great find Coghlan was. Team control until 2017. Second most productive hitter on the team.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 2:30 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 


I really like him and enjoy watching him play. I hope he can carry it over as I believe he will be the LF'er next year
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Posted: 8/12/2014 2:36 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 


If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
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Posted: 8/12/2014 2:48 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 





---------------------------------------------
--- HomerInGloamin wrote:

If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4

---------------------------------------------

I'm judging him off of this year. If he continues to play like this, I'd be more than happy to have him start next year
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Posted: 8/12/2014 2:50 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



HomerInGloamin wrote: If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
The non power hitter is slugging .478 this season. For an extra 13 million per season they could have had the replacement level OF that is BJ.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 2:50 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



CoachK34 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- HomerInGloamin wrote:

If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4

---------------------------------------------

I'm judging him off of this year. If he continues to play like this, I'd be more than happy to have him start next year
Seriously, I'm not taking the beat writers bait, no one should even be responding to his non-sense. Even after getting called out on every thread today, he finds new ways to get involved. I've got enough stupidity to do the story, don't need anymore. :)
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:01 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



HomerInGloamin wrote: If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
Depends on which Coghlan shows up.

The Coghlan that is playing for the Cubs this year has an .843 OPS. You will take that any day of the week. His BABIP is high (.333) indicating that there might be some correction due. That said, he sustained a BABIP of .365 in his ROY season and .336 the next year, so maybe he can sustain it. K rate is low (17.1%), walk rate is high (10.5%). I'm honestly not sure what guy will show up next year. No question 2014 Schierholtz and Sweeney have me a bit gun shy of unproven guys, but let's be honest: a lot of "proven" guys fall apart after getting paid as well, and they become a much bigger problem because you are less likely to bench them or DFA them because of their contracts.

Let's assume Soler is taking one corner OF spot next year. Bryant might take the other one if he can't stick at 3B. As such, while you certainly bring in competition for Coghlan, how much money do you spend on the spot if you then might be blocking Bryant, Soler, Almora..? That is a question they need to answer, especially with Rusney Castillo available...if they feel he is any good.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:10 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote: If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
Depends on which Coghlan shows up.

The Coghlan that is playing for the Cubs this year has an .843 OPS. You will take that any day of the week. His BABIP is high (.333) indicating that there might be some correction due. That said, he sustained a BABIP of .365 in his ROY season and .336 the next year, so maybe he can sustain it. K rate is low (17.1%), walk rate is high (10.5%). I'm honestly not sure what guy will show up next year. No question 2014 Schierholtz and Sweeney have me a bit gun shy of unproven guys, but let's be honest: a lot of "proven" guys fall apart after getting paid as well, and they become a much bigger problem because you are less likely to bench them or DFA them because of their contracts.

Let's assume Soler is taking one corner OF spot next year. Bryant might take the other one if he can't stick at 3B. As such, while you certainly bring in competition for Coghlan, how much money do you spend on the spot if you then might be blocking Bryant, Soler, Almora..? That is a question they need to answer, especially with Rusney Castillo available...if they feel he is any good.
His WAR this year is .4 (baseball reference) & 1.4 (fangraphs)

Numbers this year suggest role player and not a starter unless you want to try for a high draft pick in 2016

He is 19th among LF
http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:28 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote: If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
Depends on which Coghlan shows up.

The Coghlan that is playing for the Cubs this year has an .843 OPS. You will take that any day of the week. His BABIP is high (.333) indicating that there might be some correction due. That said, he sustained a BABIP of .365 in his ROY season and .336 the next year, so maybe he can sustain it. K rate is low (17.1%), walk rate is high (10.5%). I'm honestly not sure what guy will show up next year. No question 2014 Schierholtz and Sweeney have me a bit gun shy of unproven guys, but let's be honest: a lot of "proven" guys fall apart after getting paid as well, and they become a much bigger problem because you are less likely to bench them or DFA them because of their contracts.

Let's assume Soler is taking one corner OF spot next year. Bryant might take the other one if he can't stick at 3B. As such, while you certainly bring in competition for Coghlan, how much money do you spend on the spot if you then might be blocking Bryant, Soler, Almora..? That is a question they need to answer, especially with Rusney Castillo available...if they feel he is any good.
His WAR this year is .4 (baseball reference) & 1.4 (fangraphs)

Numbers this year suggest role player and not a starter unless you want to try for a high draft pick in 2016

He is 19th among LF
http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0
WAR is based on playing time. Rizzo and Castro have twice as many plate appearances. Double Coghlan's  WAR and he is at 2.8, between Rizzo and Castro. 

Or, instead of WAR, look at stats that are not based on plate appearances. Like they said in the article, his slash line this year is incredibly similar to Carlos Gomez. Did you read the article?

I have no doubt they will bring in competition for the spot. But it might not be whom you want and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Another OF you listed as a good choice for them to add last year was Shin Soo Choo, He is currently delivering a 0.0 WAR for the Rangers. ZERO. 

Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:42 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote: If he is on the bench next season that is fine but need to set sights higher than a non power hitting LF to start on an offensively challenged team,

His career WAR number starting in 09 - Baseball Reference - 1, 1.1, -1.3, -1.4, -.5, .4
Fangraphs - 2.5, .9, -.5, -1.4, -.5, 1.4
Depends on which Coghlan shows up.

The Coghlan that is playing for the Cubs this year has an .843 OPS. You will take that any day of the week. His BABIP is high (.333) indicating that there might be some correction due. That said, he sustained a BABIP of .365 in his ROY season and .336 the next year, so maybe he can sustain it. K rate is low (17.1%), walk rate is high (10.5%). I'm honestly not sure what guy will show up next year. No question 2014 Schierholtz and Sweeney have me a bit gun shy of unproven guys, but let's be honest: a lot of "proven" guys fall apart after getting paid as well, and they become a much bigger problem because you are less likely to bench them or DFA them because of their contracts.

Let's assume Soler is taking one corner OF spot next year. Bryant might take the other one if he can't stick at 3B. As such, while you certainly bring in competition for Coghlan, how much money do you spend on the spot if you then might be blocking Bryant, Soler, Almora..? That is a question they need to answer, especially with Rusney Castillo available...if they feel he is any good.
His WAR this year is .4 (baseball reference) & 1.4 (fangraphs)

Numbers this year suggest role player and not a starter unless you want to try for a high draft pick in 2016

He is 19th among LF
http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0
WAR is based on playing time. Rizzo and Castro have twice as many plate appearances. Double Coghlan's  WAR and he is at 2.8, between Rizzo and Castro. 

Or, instead of WAR, look at stats that are not based on plate appearances. Like they said in the article, his slash line this year is incredibly similar to Carlos Gomez. Did you read the article?

I have no doubt they will bring in competition for the spot. But it might not be whom you want and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Another OF you listed as a good choice for them to add last year was Shin Soo Choo, He is currently delivering a 0.0 WAR for the Rangers. ZERO. 

Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
The 1 WAR difference between FG and BR is because of the defensive metrics used by each site. Looking at his career numbers suggest he is a poor fielder, but taking such a small sample as the part time OF defensive metrics can be very misleading. There is now way they have him pegged as the full time starter next year. He could get a bunch of time if he is performing, but there will be other guys also available. Rugi and Sweeney could also be back. You mix and match and play the hot hand and often times it leads to much more than a high priced player.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:44 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



SportsGoblin wrote:
Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
Coghlan is not an everyday starting LF - the rest of your post is worthless like not knowing when a subject is dead
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:51 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
Coghlan is not an everyday starting LF - the rest of your post is worthless like not knowing when a subject is dead
No way this is dead. I'm making sure this board has a 45-page thread on Chris Coghlan. Does Tony Campana have the record ?
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Posted: 8/12/2014 3:56 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 


4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 4:12 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 





---------------------------------------------
--- doughboy981 wrote:

4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.

---------------------------------------------

The only problem with him as a 4th OF'er is he can pretty much only play LF. His defense isn't very good IMO
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Posted: 8/12/2014 4:18 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



doughboy981 wrote: 4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.
The Cubs own his rights until 2017. Absolutely zero reason not to bring him back. He is cheap, so if he is a 4th or 5th OF because of who else you sign, that works. If he performs well enough to be the starter, that works too.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 4:24 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 





---------------------------------------------
--- SportsGoblin wrote:


doughboy981 wrote: 4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.
The Cubs own his rights until 2017. Absolutely zero reason not to bring him back. He is cheap, so if he is a 4th or 5th OF because of who else you sign, that works. If he performs well enough to be the starter, that works too.

---------------------------------------------

Gotcha, keep forgetting how young he still is. Agreed, no reason to not bring him back.
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Posted: 8/12/2014 4:32 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
Coghlan is not an everyday starting LF - the rest of your post is worthless like not knowing when a subject is dead
Funny thing is, you don't get to decide this, and you calling anyone's post worthless is irony at its best.

Coghlan's WAR in limited playing time this year was 1.4. Not an everyday player? Fine. Guys that you have said ARE everyday players:

Choo:                0.0
BJ Upton:         0.0
Mark Trumbo:  -0.7

Maybe you shouldn't get to decide who is or isn't an every day player. Let's leave it to the Cubs FO. They will make some mistakes and have, but they were smart enough not to acquire Upton, Choo and Trumbo.

Just to bring it full circle for Mike Nester, Trumbo has been bad enough that Choo, BJ Upton and Trumbo combined have been outperformed by...Tony Campana (-0.5 for the year). tongue
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Posted: 8/12/2014 4:41 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Playing Coghlan as an everyday OF is not necessarily asking for a good draft pick, but maybe signing who you tell them to sign is the true ticket to the cellar.
Coghlan is not an everyday starting LF - the rest of your post is worthless like not knowing when a subject is dead
Funny thing is, you don't get to decide this, and you calling anyone's post worthless is irony at its best.

Coghlan's WAR in limited playing time this year was 1.4. Not an everyday player? Fine. Guys that you have said ARE everyday players:

Choo:                0.0
BJ Upton:         0.0
Mark Trumbo:  -0.7

Maybe you shouldn't get to decide who is or isn't an every day player. Let's leave it to the Cubs FO. They will make some mistakes and have, but they were smart enough not to acquire Upton, Choo and Trumbo.

Just to bring it full circle for Mike Nester, Trumbo has been bad enough that Choo, BJ Upton and Trumbo combined have been outperformed by...Tony Campana (-0.5 for the year). tongue
bonus points for the Tony reference
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Posted: 8/12/2014 6:19 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



SportsGoblin wrote:
doughboy981 wrote: 4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.
The Cubs own his rights until 2017. Absolutely zero reason not to bring him back. He is cheap, so if he is a 4th or 5th OF because of who else you sign, that works. If he performs well enough to be the starter, that works too.
If you land Rusney Castillo and can sell high on Coghlan...which right now is about as high as he can get....if u land some good prospects then u trade him...a couple year contract makes him even more valuable
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Posted: 8/12/2014 6:29 PM

Re: Chris Coghlan 



CoachK34 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- doughboy981 wrote:

4th outfielders get a lot of ABs. But I'm guessing he's been good enough to get a multi-yr deal elsewhere.

---------------------------------------------

The only problem with him as a 4th OF'er is he can pretty much only play LF. His defense isn't very good IMO
At 29 he is not that young, has enough of a major league track record that shows he is not starter material and his defense is not that good to move around the OF.

He is 30 next June and a couple months performance have colored opinions and he is due for some regression.

He should not be a starter and they will have better bench options. I don't think he is a lock to even be the 5th OF next season.
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