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Castro vs. Baez

Posted: 7/30/2014 8:09 AM

Castro vs. Baez 


There seems to be an overwhelmingly amount of posters who believe Castro will get traded/replaced by Baez/Russell. I strongly disagree, I feel like Baez is the weak link “prospect” who will more likely be a miss than a hit. Look at the following stats

Castro: Born March 24, 1990- 24 years old.
-Signed through 2019 with a club option in 2020.
-2015: 6M
-2016 7M
-2017 9M
-2018 10M
-2019 11M
-2020 16M team option with a 1M buyout

Career
PA- 3069
BB- 160
SO- 473
BA- 281
OBP- 322
SLG- 406
OPS- 729

Baez: Born Dec 1, 1992 22 years old

AA stats
PA- 240
BB- 19
SO- 69
BA- 294
OBP- 346
SLG- 638
OPS-983

AAA Stats
PA- 408
BB- 31
SO- 124
BA- 254
OBP- 314
SLG- 486
OPS-800

Overall, Castro's stats are better at the BIG LEAGUE level, granted Baez has more pop which pushes his SLG and OPS numbers higher than Castro's but again this is at AAA vs. the show. When you factor in the fact that Starlin is only 2 years older and has a very friendly cap number through 2019 (where he will be 29 years old) and I think Baez is the odd man out. The way I see things going is the following.

Baez at 2nd in 2015 and traded in 2016
Alcantra in CF in 2015...
Bryant at 3rd in 2015...
Russell at SS in 2016
Castro at SS 2015 and 2nd in 2016

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Posted: 7/30/2014 8:39 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



Yooper79 wrote:

There seems to be an overwhelmingly amount of posters who believe Castro will get traded/replaced by Baez/Russell. I strongly disagree, I feel like Baez is the weak link “prospect” who will more likely be a miss than a hit. Look at the following stats

Castro: Born March 24, 1990- 24 years old.
-Signed through 2019 with a club option in 2020.
-2015: 6M
-2016 7M
-2017 9M
-2018 10M
-2019 11M
-2020 16M team option with a 1M buyout

Career
PA- 3069
BB- 160
SO- 473
BA- 281
OBP- 322
SLG- 406
OPS- 729

Baez: Born Dec 1, 1992 22 years old

AA stats
PA- 240
BB- 19
SO- 69
BA- 294
OBP- 346
SLG- 638
OPS-983

AAA Stats
PA- 408
BB- 31
SO- 124
BA- 254
OBP- 314
SLG- 486
OPS-800

Overall, Castro's stats are better at the BIG LEAGUE level, granted Baez has more pop which pushes his SLG and OPS numbers higher than Castro's but again this is at AAA vs. the show. When you factor in the fact that Starlin is only 2 years older and has a very friendly cap number through 2019 (where he will be 29 years old) and I think Baez is the odd man out. The way I see things going is the following.

Baez at 2nd in 2015 and traded in 2016
Alcantra in CF in 2015...
Bryant at 3rd in 2015...
Russell at SS in 2016
Castro at SS 2015 and 2nd in 2016

it is nice that the Cubs have so many prospects that we can have debates about who will be the middle infielders of the future.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 9:38 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


Castro's almost 3 years older and his bat won't play nearly as well at 2B as Baez's.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 9:41 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


Castro's stats are not better.
Yooper79 wrote:

There seems to be an overwhelmingly amount of posters who believe Castro will get traded/replaced by Baez/Russell. I strongly disagree, I feel like Baez is the weak link “prospect” who will more likely be a miss than a hit. Look at the following stats

Castro: Born March 24, 1990- 24 years old.
-Signed through 2019 with a club option in 2020.
-2015: 6M
-2016 7M
-2017 9M
-2018 10M
-2019 11M
-2020 16M team option with a 1M buyout

Career
PA- 3069
BB- 160
SO- 473
BA- 281
OBP- 322
SLG- 406
OPS- 729

Baez: Born Dec 1, 1992 22 years old

AA stats
PA- 240
BB- 19
SO- 69
BA- 294
OBP- 346
SLG- 638
OPS-983

AAA Stats
PA- 408
BB- 31
SO- 124
BA- 254
OBP- 314
SLG- 486
OPS-800

Overall, Castro's stats are better at the BIG LEAGUE level, granted Baez has more pop which pushes his SLG and OPS numbers higher than Castro's but again this is at AAA vs. the show. When you factor in the fact that Starlin is only 2 years older and has a very friendly cap number through 2019 (where he will be 29 years old) and I think Baez is the odd man out. The way I see things going is the following.

Baez at 2nd in 2015 and traded in 2016
Alcantra in CF in 2015...
Bryant at 3rd in 2015...
Russell at SS in 2016
Castro at SS 2015 and 2nd in 2016

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Posted: 7/30/2014 9:46 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



tautology wrote: Castro's almost 3 years older and his bat won't play nearly as well at 2B as Baez's.

But it will still play very well.

I am a bit concerned about our defense up the middle with Baez.  I would not have that concern with Castro. Perhaps Baez just needs more time but as of now I am concerned.

That said, unless something changes, if Castro is on this team beyond 2015 it is at 3B or 2B, IMHO.  He's become a solid/good defender but Russell is a wiz.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 10:38 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


Castro is still a below-average fielder. I don't think Baez will be any worse defensively.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 10:51 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


With scouts saying he has soft hands and a very strong arm, I like like Baez at 3B.  I recently read a scouting report that said he has gold glove potential there.  He definitely projects to have enough bat for the position.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 11:14 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



Yooper79 wrote:

There seems to be an overwhelmingly amount of posters who believe Castro will get traded/replaced by Baez/Russell. I strongly disagree, I feel like Baez is the weak link “prospect” who will more likely be a miss than a hit. Look at the following stats

Overall, Castro's stats are better at the BIG LEAGUE level, granted Baez has more pop which pushes his SLG and OPS numbers higher than Castro's but again this is at AAA vs. the show. When you factor in the fact that Starlin is only 2 years older and has a very friendly cap number through 2019 (where he will be 29 years old) and I think Baez is the odd man out. 

Um..what? Couple points:

  • Baez has a lower batting average than Castro. Is that the stat you mean? Because people tend to like OPS more as an overall stat, where Baez is better.
  • You can't just dismiss the power numbers. That is the primary distinguisher between the players. Yes Baez does need to prove he can hit at the major league level,
  • Baez has an even friendlier "cap number" than Castro -- he makes the league minimum and it is 3 years before he even gets to arbitration. Yes, if he performs, the Cubs will attempt to sign him to a Castro-like deal, but even if he doesn't sign one, he is cheap for quite some time.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 11:21 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


castro is just another guy right now.

it is sad he was so bad last year that we all want to go overboard this year.  think about it, compare him to most players and he does not stick out.  on tv castro looks lazy and chubby.



imo russell is a lock at short unless he is the centerpiece in a major blockbuster trade.  I don't think so.


baez stock is the highest now.  Bring him up and you show your hand. that will be good or bad for the cubs.


I say castro in a year or two will be gone for pitching.  Unless you can make this all work but I say you have one to many in the infield and lf.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 11:31 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 





---------------------------------------------
--- promar200 wrote:

castro is just another guy right now.

it is sad he was so bad last year that we all want to go overboard this year.  think about it, compare him to most players and he does not stick out.  on tv castro looks lazy and chubby.


---------------------------------------------
I would say Castro is a top 3-4 offensive SS in the league. Think they said last night he hasn't made an error in 35 games. Haven't really seen too much laziness this year. Sounds like just another guy. Like I've said before, he will never please some fans
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Posted: 7/30/2014 11:46 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



CoachK34 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- promar200 wrote:

castro is just another guy right now.

it is sad he was so bad last year that we all want to go overboard this year.  think about it, compare him to most players and he does not stick out.  on tv castro looks lazy and chubby.


---------------------------------------------
I would say Castro is a top 3-4 offensive SS in the league. Think they said last night he hasn't made an error in 35 games. Haven't really seen too much laziness this year. Sounds like just another guy. Like I've said before, he will never please some fans
Castro ranks 10th in Fangraphs -

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0
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Posted: 7/30/2014 11:51 AM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


I made the comparison for Castro to a 24 year old Edgar Renteria. Average defensively, above-average offensively.

With Castro, I don't think you will see a lot of improvement over the next five years. He's already really good and the improvement you will see is off-set by the increased salary each year.

Teams that would trade for a SS like, say, the Orioles, wouldn't want an expensive lottery ticket in the sense of what Baez is worth to the Cubs. They would want the sure thing in Castro and the Cubs could demand a guy like Gausman or Bundy to get him and both teams be happy. (The Orioles like Hardy though, so he may re-sign with them)

Baez comes with a high bust potential for the team getting him and high demand in terms of prospects for the Cubs. Teams just don't trade guys like this and when they do, they get burned (Boston losing Hanley, for instance)

Last edited 7/30/2014 11:52 AM by PadsFS

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Posted: 7/30/2014 12:20 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



tautology wrote: Castro is still a below-average fielder. I don't think Baez will be any worse defensively.
Was it you who doesn't put much stock in defensive metrics?  To my eye he looks fine defensively now that he's cut down the errors.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 12:45 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



KatieCubFan wrote:
tautology wrote: Castro is still a below-average fielder. I don't think Baez will be any worse defensively.
Was it you who doesn't put much stock in defensive metrics?  To my eye he looks fine defensively now that he's cut down the errors.
There certainly a number of sources out there for defensive metrics and they can vary a good bit. To me you have to take all of them over a large sample size and then weigh the returns. This certainly has been his best year in the field and the numbers suggest that as well. To me he still looses focus and has very bad body language between pitches. Watching him and Barney set up between pitches while attending games was very telling. Barney would be smoothing the dirt, checking the flags, checking the sun, locating the OF, and then intently looking for pitch and location. Castro would be a statue with a hand on one hip until the pitch was on the way almost bored by the process. This simply can not be the Cubs way. Big improvement over the ESPN game where Bobby V ripped him apart when he had his back to the pitch. IMO, Castro seems disinterested in the finer points of the game. For me to be convinced otherwise, I would need to see the change first hand. Look he is a millionaire and can go about his business any way he chooses, but this can't be the CUBS WAY!! In the limited clips I have seen of Russell the difference is apparent. After reading the article of where Rus describes his process between pitches, Castro was quoted as saying, HUH?
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Posted: 7/30/2014 12:56 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



absolutebadger wrote:
There certainly a number of sources out there for defensive metrics and they can vary a good bit. To me you have to take all of them over a large sample size and then weigh the returns. This certainly has been his best year in the field and the numbers suggest that as well. To me he still looses focus and has very bad body language between pitches. Watching him and Barney set up between pitches while attending games was very telling. Barney would be smoothing the dirt, checking the flags, checking the sun, locating the OF, and then intently looking for pitch and location. Castro would be a statue with a hand on one hip until the pitch was on the way almost bored by the process. This simply can not be the Cubs way. Big improvement over the ESPN game where Bobby V ripped him apart when he had his back to the pitch. IMO, Castro seems disinterested in the finer points of the game. For me to be convinced otherwise, I would need to see the change first hand. Look he is a millionaire and can go about his business any way he chooses, but this can't be the CUBS WAY!! In the limited clips I have seen of Russell the difference is apparent. After reading the article of where Rus describes his process between pitches, Castro was quoted as saying, HUH?
So now you are a scout - How many Cub games do you attend living in SC ? How can you state Russell will be better without seeing him play in person ?

I think the defensive metrics and scouting reports show an improved fielding Castro that is better than average.

One sign the front office is comfortable with his defense is the switch to 2b for Baez.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 12:56 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
CoachK34 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- promar200 wrote:

castro is just another guy right now.

it is sad he was so bad last year that we all want to go overboard this year.  think about it, compare him to most players and he does not stick out.  on tv castro looks lazy and chubby.


---------------------------------------------
I would say Castro is a top 3-4 offensive SS in the league. Think they said last night he hasn't made an error in 35 games. Haven't really seen too much laziness this year. Sounds like just another guy. Like I've said before, he will never please some fans
Castro ranks 10th in Fangraphs -

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0

He said offensive and league.  You need to filter for NL and oWAR.  Looks like he ranks 7th right now.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 12:59 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 



absolutebadger wrote:
KatieCubFan wrote:
tautology wrote: Castro is still a below-average fielder. I don't think Baez will be any worse defensively.
Was it you who doesn't put much stock in defensive metrics?  To my eye he looks fine defensively now that he's cut down the errors.
There certainly a number of sources out there for defensive metrics and they can vary a good bit. To me you have to take all of them over a large sample size and then weigh the returns. This certainly has been his best year in the field and the numbers suggest that as well. To me he still looses focus and has very bad body language between pitches. Watching him and Barney set up between pitches while attending games was very telling. Barney would be smoothing the dirt, checking the flags, checking the sun, locating the OF, and then intently looking for pitch and location. Castro would be a statue with a hand on one hip until the pitch was on the way almost bored by the process. This simply can not be the Cubs way. Big improvement over the ESPN game where Bobby V ripped him apart when he had his back to the pitch. IMO, Castro seems disinterested in the finer points of the game. For me to be convinced otherwise, I would need to see the change first hand. Look he is a millionaire and can go about his business any way he chooses, but this can't be the CUBS WAY!! In the limited clips I have seen of Russell the difference is apparent. After reading the article of where Rus describes his process between pitches, Castro was quoted as saying, HUH?

I agree about the body language.  He wears his frustration on his sleeve.  Can I have a link to that article?  I posted a nice Fangraphs article on here dated Nov. 2013 about Russell and his preparation at SS.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 1:16 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 





---------------------------------------------
--- HomerInGloamin wrote:


CoachK34 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- promar200 wrote:

castro is just another guy right now.

it is sad he was so bad last year that we all want to go overboard this year.  think about it, compare him to most players and he does not stick out.  on tv castro looks lazy and chubby.


---------------------------------------------
I would say Castro is a top 3-4 offensive SS in the league. Think they said last night he hasn't made an error in 35 games. Haven't really seen too much laziness this year. Sounds like just another guy. Like I've said before, he will never please some fans
Castro ranks 10th in Fangraphs -

www.fangraphs.com/leade...=&players=0

---------------------------------------------

Ok sorry. He's 10th out of 30 starting SS's at the age of 24. I don't even like to defend him cause he does some things that drive me crazy. But some of the ridicule he receives is ridiculous. If/when they get good, he'll be the guy getting booed if he's struggling. Cub fans are infamous for it. He will never be able to live up to their expectations
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Posted: 7/30/2014 2:19 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


I agree with someone above that he has reached his peak.  he is as good as he will get.  he really has no consistant hr power.  maybe I am wrong.


funny about orioles and pitching.  I was watching mlb network yesterday and they were talking about the orioles and trades.  they are not in any way shape or form trading bundy, or any of their top 4 or 5 pitchers.  sorry don't know their names.


it is funny someone mentioned that.

btw

Buck showalter would chew castro up and spit him out if he didn't change.  that would be comical.
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Posted: 7/30/2014 3:09 PM

Re: Castro vs. Baez 


Can't Baez IDK first reach the majors and play some before we start arguing about trading Castro and/or Baez? noidea
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