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Is losing worth it

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Posted: 7/28/2014 11:56 AM

Is losing worth it 


http://www.baseballamerica.com...petitive-cycle/

Although most of the teams had a prolonged losing period of more than five years, most them improved significantly after that fifth draft as the impact talent began to advance to the majors. The cumulative winning percentage went from .408 in the fifth year to .443 in the sixth season, the final season with a cumulative winning percentage below .500. The next three seasons the winning percentage improved, moving from .507 to .532 to .541.

All but two of the 10 teams went on to make the playoffs, the Cleveland Indians (1970-1975), an organization known for mismanagement during that era, and the Kansas City Royals (1997-2003), whose streak of futility and poor management has been well documented.

TeamCon. YearYearsWin. % During Top 10 Pick YearsWin. % Next 5 Years
Atlanta Braves51976-1980.413.499
Atlanta Braves61986-1991.403.581
Baltimore Orioles72006-2012.426.515
Cleveland Indians51970-1975.425.474
Colorado Rockies62002-2007.439.508
Kansas City Royals71997-2003.440.426
Minnesota Twins61996-2001.423.549
New York Mets71978-1984.401.590
Philadelphia Phillies61969-1974.421.565
Pittsburgh Pirates62006-2011.409.512
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:38 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 


Good post, Sounds like it is worth it. Just don't be the Royals. tongue
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:38 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 


You posted this article in the past.  Now this is a useless thread on a topic that's been discussed to death.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:49 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



KatieCubFan wrote: You posted this article in the past.  Now this is a useless thread on a topic that's been discussed to death.
This is a new article that has never been posted.

It is a valid new thread giving evidence that better times are coming based on drafting high 5 straight seasons.

Debbie Downer - Did you even read the link ?
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:01 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 


Here is what I took away, and would add that they have no mention of Soler in their glowing report of the Cub's farm.

J.J. Cooper found that the Cubs will become the only team to ever have three top-10 prospects in BA Top 100 prospect history, which dates back to 1990, if No. 2 Kris Bryant, No. 5 Addison Russell and No. 7 Javier Baez (per the mid-season update) retain their prospect eligibility in the offseason.

“Chicago’s current farm system looks to be one of the best we’ve seen in recent years,” Cooper wrote of a team that ranked fourth in the 2014 Organization Talent Rankings heading into the season before adding potential impact talent (Russell and No. 4 overall pick Kyle Schwarber) over the last two months.

The lifeblood of the Cubs’ touted farm system is a core of position players with high pedigrees from the draft (and international market): Bryant (No.2 overall in 2013), Baez (No. 9 in 2011), Russell (No. 11 in 2012), Albert Almora (No. 7 in 2012) and Schwarber (No. 4 in 2014).

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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:21 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 


The most encouraging takeaway from picking in the top 10 for at least 5 years in a row -

While this look is not predictive when looking at the Cubs and each team that met this criterion had its own unique competitive cycle, it indicates that the majority of teams in a similar situation to the Cubs have gone on to periods of success, most of them quickly.

Without a World Series win it will not have been worth it
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:39 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



KatieCubFan wrote: You posted this article in the past.  Now this is a useless thread on a topic that's been discussed to death.
Yet he's still allowed to post here.  Thanks again to the virus, chameleon, for ruining this site. 

Just a thought, but if he's allowed to keep posting here (under endless monikers), how bout the Cubs fans on the site get a say on what his name should be?  There should be a thread created where you can put your suggestion(s) on what to name said Dbag, cubs2007. 

Here's a quick few:

Everyonehatesme
Noonecares
BrokenEnglish
Bluetypesucks
Worthlessopinions
Mylifesucks
I am an idiot
BartmansDad

Pretty simple. Take a vote and decide what the name should be.  If said dbag chooses to keep posting here, then he can only do so using the name that was chosen by the masses who can't stand his presence.
Go away Cubs2007, no one cares what you have to say!!!!!
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:43 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



HomerInGloamin wrote: The most encouraging takeaway from picking in the top 10 for at least 5 years in a row -

While this look is not predictive when looking at the Cubs and each team that met this criterion had its own unique competitive cycle, it indicates that the majority of teams in a similar situation to the Cubs have gone on to periods of success, most of them quickly.

Without a World Series win it will not have been worth it
1984, 1989, 1998, 2003, 2007, 2008

Those are the Cubs playoff appearances since the last time they went to the World Series, in 1945. Whatever they were trying before, it clearly was not leading to regular playoff appearances.

If what they are trying leads to a long string of playoff appearances (5+ in 10 years?), it will certainly have been worth it in my book, and then you just have to hope they can do some damage in the playoffs once you get there. No question I want them to win the World Series and will be disappointed if they don't...but it is silly to say it was not worth it if they don't win it all. 5+ playoff appearances in 10 years wouldn't be worth it? Why?!? Because you could have instead watched a few more years of watchable product during which they made no playoffs and then finished middle of the pack?
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:13 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



SportsGoblin wrote:

If what they are trying leads to a long string of playoff appearances (5+ in 10 years?), it will certainly have been worth it in my book, and then you just have to hope they can do some damage in the playoffs once you get there. No question I want them to win the World Series and will be disappointed if they don't...but it is silly to say it was not worth it if they don't win it all. 5+ playoff appearances in 10 years wouldn't be worth it? Why?!? Because you could have instead watched a few more years of watchable product during which they made no playoffs and then finished middle of the pack?
I don't care if they go last place then World Series winner then last place like the Red Sox are doing.

just win - doesn't matter if it is all with prospects or if it is with expensive players just put together a winner.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:14 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 


For me it's simple.  I've been a fan for 45 years now and everything they have tried in the past didn't work.  Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.   Or to put it another way, if you continue doing things the same way you will have the same results.  

    This is a different approach this organization has never tried in those 45 years so I'm all for it.   The losing is (almost) in the past and you can't change the past.  I look towards the future and the future looks good right now.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:32 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



cubsfaninca wrote: For me it's simple.  I've been a fan for 45 years now and everything they have tried in the past didn't work.  Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.   Or to put it another way, if you continue doing things the same way you will have the same results.  

    This is a different approach this organization has never tried in those 45 years so I'm all for it.   The losing is (almost) in the past and you can't change the past.  I look towards the future and the future looks good right now.
Stop with the insanity quote that has been misused over and over on this board.

I posted this new link to show there is light at the end of the tunnel and hopefully the losing is almost over.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:36 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:

If what they are trying leads to a long string of playoff appearances (5+ in 10 years?), it will certainly have been worth it in my book, and then you just have to hope they can do some damage in the playoffs once you get there. No question I want them to win the World Series and will be disappointed if they don't...but it is silly to say it was not worth it if they don't win it all. 5+ playoff appearances in 10 years wouldn't be worth it? Why?!? Because you could have instead watched a few more years of watchable product during which they made no playoffs and then finished middle of the pack?
I don't care if they go last place then World Series winner then last place like the Red Sox are doing.

just win - doesn't matter if it is all with prospects or if it is with expensive players just put together a winner.
You understand that you don't get a ring or a check for the WS? Go over to the Red Sox board and tell me if they are happy with this season? How many are saying it is OK because they won last year?
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:44 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:

If what they are trying leads to a long string of playoff appearances (5+ in 10 years?), it will certainly have been worth it in my book, and then you just have to hope they can do some damage in the playoffs once you get there. No question I want them to win the World Series and will be disappointed if they don't...but it is silly to say it was not worth it if they don't win it all. 5+ playoff appearances in 10 years wouldn't be worth it? Why?!? Because you could have instead watched a few more years of watchable product during which they made no playoffs and then finished middle of the pack?
I don't care if they go last place then World Series winner then last place like the Red Sox are doing.

just win - doesn't matter if it is all with prospects or if it is with expensive players just put together a winner.
Sure, but they don't have that choice. Absolutely no approach will guarantee a World Series win. Sustained, repeat visits to the playoffs are their best chance, so that is what they are gearing for.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:50 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



absolutebadger wrote:
You understand that you don't get a ring or a check for the WS? Go over to the Red Sox board and tell me if they are happy with this season? How many are saying it is OK because they won last year?

You understand that 1908 was the last year the Cubs won a World Series.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

If the Cubs won a World Series next year I think most Cub fans would be OK coming in last the following season.

Maybe the title of the thread is bad but the premise of the article was losing at least 5 years in a row and at least picking in the top ten during that stretch.

Last edited 7/28/2014 3:06 PM by HomerInGloamin

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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:04 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
You understand that you don't get a ring or a check for the WS? Go over to the Red Sox board and tell me if they are happy with this season? How many are saying it is OK because they won last year?

You understand that 1908 was the last year the Cubs won a World Series.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

If the Cubs won a World Series next year I think most Cub fans would be OK coming in last the following season.
I think this is absolutely true.

However, this is dangerous thinking. Teams have often sold the farm to get the one extra guy they needed to win it all...and then they didn't win it all and they ended up destroying their future going for it in one year. The Rangers come to mind. Like the Red Sox, they also are now a last-place team, but they didn't win crap and they are sitting there praying that their traded prospects don't become All Stars for the Cubs.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:12 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



SportsGoblin wrote:
If the Cubs won a World Series next year I think most Cub fans would be OK coming in last the following season.
I think this is absolutely true.

However, this is dangerous thinking. Teams have often sold the farm to get the one extra guy they needed to win it all...and then they didn't win it all and they ended up destroying their future going for it in one year. The Rangers come to mind. Like the Red Sox, they also are now a last-place team, but they didn't win crap and they are sitting there praying that their traded prospects don't become All Stars for the Cubs.
It is not dangerous thinking - it is a made up scenario
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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:14 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
You understand that you don't get a ring or a check for the WS? Go over to the Red Sox board and tell me if they are happy with this season? How many are saying it is OK because they won last year?

You understand that 1908 was the last year the Cubs won a World Series.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

If the Cubs won a World Series next year I think most Cub fans would be OK coming in last the following season.
I think this is absolutely true.

However, this is dangerous thinking. Teams have often sold the farm to get the one extra guy they needed to win it all...and then they didn't win it all and they ended up destroying their future going for it in one year. The Rangers come to mind. Like the Red Sox, they also are now a last-place team, but they didn't win crap and they are sitting there praying that their traded prospects don't become All Stars for the Cubs.
I'm much more interested in the success of the Cards and Braves and both have followed a similar strategy and have obtained sustained success. The Braves success has only resulted in 1 title, but the playoffs are a crap shoot. Putting all the marbles in for 1 crap shoot is bad management.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:27 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



SportsGoblin wrote:
If what they are trying leads to a long string of playoff appearances (5+ in 10 years?),
Lets say the Cubs make the playoffs in 6 of the next 10 years - Would you count the 5 bad years and it would really be 6 out of 15

Again all this does not matter if 1 of those years the team finally wins a World Series
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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:30 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



absolutebadger wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
You understand that you don't get a ring or a check for the WS? Go over to the Red Sox board and tell me if they are happy with this season? How many are saying it is OK because they won last year?

You understand that 1908 was the last year the Cubs won a World Series.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

If the Cubs won a World Series next year I think most Cub fans would be OK coming in last the following season.
I think this is absolutely true.

However, this is dangerous thinking. Teams have often sold the farm to get the one extra guy they needed to win it all...and then they didn't win it all and they ended up destroying their future going for it in one year. The Rangers come to mind. Like the Red Sox, they also are now a last-place team, but they didn't win crap and they are sitting there praying that their traded prospects don't become All Stars for the Cubs.
I'm much more interested in the success of the Cards and Braves and both have followed a similar strategy and have obtained sustained success. The Braves success has only resulted in 1 title, but the playoffs are a crap shoot. Putting all the marbles in for 1 crap shoot is bad management.
Agreed. If you have a rabbit's foot like the Marlins, it can work, but MLB is full of teams that pushed hard for one year, didn't win and the push hurt their chances for future years.

Plus which, for the lovers of watchable product, wouldn't you prefer your team be in it every year than be in it for one year and bad the next 5? The team that was in it every year you would assume by the numbers has a better chance to win it all.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 3:38 PM

Re: Is losing worth it 



SportsGoblin wrote:However, this is dangerous thinking. Teams have often sold the farm to get the one extra guy they needed to win it all...and then they didn't win it all and they ended up destroying their future going for it in one year. The Rangers come to mind. Like the Red Sox, they also are now a last-place team, but they didn't win crap and they are sitting there praying that their traded prospects don't become All Stars for the Cubs.

My favorites types of these trades are, first, the Alexander for Smoltz trade involving the Tigers and Braves in 1987. Alexander lost both ALCS starts he had with the Tigers and had a 10.00 ERA in the series.

The other is the series of trades involving Curt Schilling in his early days, which were really bad too. Schilling was first traded from the Red Sox to the Orioles for Boddicker, somewhat defensible, although they lost Brady Anderson too. Then Schilling was traded from the Orioles (along with Harnish, ouch, and Finley, double-ouch) to the Astros for a washed-up Glenn Davis. Then the Astros shipped Schilling out to the Phillies for Jason Grimsley.

Last edited 7/28/2014 3:40 PM by PadsFS

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