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What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"?

Posted: 7/22/2014 8:06 AM

What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 


Here is an article that does a pretty good job (IMO) of explaining what the "Win now" approach would have ended up looking like:

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs...ied-to-win-now/

It covers a good portion of the circular arguments we have been having.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 8:20 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 


A very good analysis.  Maybe folks might quibble a bit with the win totals he came up with for each year, but you cant argue that any of those free agents in any combination available would have gotten this team to 88-90 wins, let alone to the world series. And while there might have been some slight increase in interest in the mlb team, signing free agents would have deprived us of Bryant and other draft choices.
Thanks very much for  the link.  As you say, it should end the circular arguments.  I am betting it wont, though.  bangheadbanghead

Last edited 7/22/2014 8:21 AM by DrakeCubsFan

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Posted: 7/22/2014 8:33 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



DrakeCubsFan wrote: A very good analysis.  Maybe folks might quibble a bit with the win totals he came up with for each year, but you cant argue that any of those free agents in any combination available would have gotten this team to 88-90 wins, let alone to the world series. And while there might have been some slight increase in interest in the mlb team, signing free agents would have deprived us of Bryant and other draft choices.
Thanks very much for  the link.  As you say, it should end the circular arguments.  I am betting it wont, though.  bangheadbanghead
It will save me typing in any event. From now on, I can just provide a link to this topic.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 8:40 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



DrakeCubsFan wrote: A very good analysis.  Maybe folks might quibble a bit with the win totals he came up with for each year, but you cant argue that any of those free agents in any combination available would have gotten this team to 88-90 wins, let alone to the world series. And while there might have been some slight increase in interest in the mlb team, signing free agents would have deprived us of Bryant and other draft choices.
Thanks very much for  the link.  As you say, it should end the circular arguments.  I am betting it wont, though. 
You have a rotation with some combination of Darvish, Ryu, Sanchez, Samardzija, Tanaka, Garza, Greinke, Wilson and add a couple bats like Puig, Cespedes & Cruz and you could be playoff team. Once your in the playoffs with good pitching you have a shot at a World Series. You still would have been developing the farm while competing at the major league level.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 8:57 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
DrakeCubsFan wrote: A very good analysis.  Maybe folks might quibble a bit with the win totals he came up with for each year, but you cant argue that any of those free agents in any combination available would have gotten this team to 88-90 wins, let alone to the world series. And while there might have been some slight increase in interest in the mlb team, signing free agents would have deprived us of Bryant and other draft choices.
Thanks very much for  the link.  As you say, it should end the circular arguments.  I am betting it wont, though. 
You have a rotation with some combination of Darvish, Ryu, Sanchez, Samardzija, Tanaka, Garza, Greinke, Wilson and add a couple bats like Puig, Cespedes & Cruz and you could be playoff team. Once your in the playoffs with good pitching you have a shot at a World Series. You still would have been developing the farm while competing at the major league level.
Read the article. You would never have gotten there. You would have pissed away the future, however.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 9:43 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote:
Read the article. You would never have gotten there. You would have pissed away the future, however.
I read the article - it was written by a blogger that is very pro building with prospects plan
Couldn't trades have been made during the past few years in addition to some of the free agents listed ?
Wouldn't the front office received a bigger budget if additional revenue had been generated from increased attendance ?
You would not have pissed away the future just like many well run teams that can manage to build good farm systems along with good major league teams. It does not have to be one or the other but that doesn't fit your narrative.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 9:58 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Read the article. You would never have gotten there. You would have pissed away the future, however.
I read the article - it was written by a blogger that is very pro building with prospects plan
Couldn't trades have been made during the past few years in addition to some of the free agents listed ?
Wouldn't the front office received a bigger budget if additional revenue had been generated from increased attendance ?
You would not have pissed away the future just like many well run teams that can manage to build good farm systems along with good major league teams. It does not have to be one or the other but that doesn't fit your narrative.
Which "good major league teams" are you talking about? The "win now and win later" narrative for turning a bad team around is a leprechaun --  everyone talks about him, but he doesn't exist. 

One attempt to do what you are talking about is the White Sox. Do you like how they look right now or in the future?
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Posted: 7/22/2014 10:13 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote:
Which "good major league teams" are you talking about?
What about the Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Angels, Braves, Tigers, Dodgers
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Posted: 7/22/2014 11:08 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Which "good major league teams" are you talking about?
What about the Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Angels, Braves, Tigers, Dodgers

The Dodgers bought a team. Their payroll is $235M+, more than $30M more than the freaking Yankees! This is not an available option. If you want to see what this kind of team ultimately becomes, look at this year's Yankees, which are conspicuously absent from your list now that the bad money has caught up with them.

The Red Sox wisely built a great farm system via overslotting and hoarding Type A and Type B FAs to acquire compensatory picks...a process no longer available to teams as you like to point out. Hence, not an available option.

The Angels are the free-spending cheaper brother of the Dodgers. They went on a huge spending spree from a TV deal the Cubs don't have yet. They had better win now, because the overpriced contracts will soon turn them into...the Yankees that again are conspicuously absent from your list. Not an option, and don't want it if it was.

The Rangers spent a ton of money, traded away their farm, didn't win anything and now have an overpriced Fielder and a record worse than the Cubs. My goodness!

The Tigers were bad for a few years (maybe on purpose), built the farm and then added a ton of payroll. This is pretty close to the model the Cubs are employing. If you like the Tigers approach, you should love what the Cubs are doing.

The Cardinals and Braves are the sort of model the Cubs would ultimately like to have. Once the Cubs turn the corner here, you will see the Cubs act a lot like these teams. But they needed to stock the farm to resemble those teams systems first.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 11:33 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote:

The Dodgers bought a team. Their payroll is $235M+, more than $30M more than the freaking Yankees! This is not an available option. 
Why is this not an option ? Do the Cubs have financial contraints ? I have been told over and over that the Cubs have the money to acquire whoever the want when they need it.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 11:39 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 


Don't…Feed…The…Troll…   
Don't…Feed…The…Troll…   
Don't…Feed…The…Troll…   
bangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbangheadbanghead
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Posted: 7/22/2014 11:41 AM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 


People love him here.  They must be extremely bored.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 12:10 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:

The Dodgers bought a team. Their payroll is $235M+, more than $30M more than the freaking Yankees! This is not an available option. 
Why is this not an option ? Do the Cubs have financial contraints ? I have been told over and over that the Cubs have the money to acquire whoever the want when they need it.
Either you are stupid, a troll or both. But you have convinced me what others have tried to tell me. Again and again. I am tired of this nonsense, and that is what your babble really, truly is. Add one to the Ignore list.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 12:47 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote:
HomerInGloamin wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Which "good major league teams" are you talking about?
What about the Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Angels, Braves, Tigers, Dodgers

The Dodgers bought a team. Their payroll is $235M+, more than $30M more than the freaking Yankees! This is not an available option. If you want to see what this kind of team ultimately becomes, look at this year's Yankees, which are conspicuously absent from your list now that the bad money has caught up with them.

The Red Sox wisely built a great farm system via overslotting and hoarding Type A and Type B FAs to acquire compensatory picks...a process no longer available to teams as you like to point out. Hence, not an available option.

The Angels are the free-spending cheaper brother of the Dodgers. They went on a huge spending spree from a TV deal the Cubs don't have yet. They had better win now, because the overpriced contracts will soon turn them into...the Yankees that again are conspicuously absent from your list. Not an option, and don't want it if it was.

The Rangers spent a ton of money, traded away their farm, didn't win anything and now have an overpriced Fielder and a record worse than the Cubs. My goodness!

The Tigers were bad for a few years (maybe on purpose), built the farm and then added a ton of payroll. This is pretty close to the model the Cubs are employing. If you like the Tigers approach, you should love what the Cubs are doing.

The Cardinals and Braves are the sort of model the Cubs would ultimately like to have. Once the Cubs turn the corner here, you will see the Cubs act a lot like these teams. But they needed to stock the farm to resemble those teams systems first.
+1 - My only hope as the contracts expire on many of the current prospects, is that Theo hold to his promise not to sign guys for past performance. The way to keep the system stocked is to keep trading away players at the end of their contracts and avoid 100 million dollar deals to 30 somethings. Extend them early to lock up the talent until they are about 29-31 and then let them go.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 12:51 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 


I love that he always points out the Tigers. It is proof his idiocy is simply idiocy and nothing more.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 2:11 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote: The Cardinals and Braves are the sort of model the Cubs would ultimately like to have. Once the Cubs turn the corner here, you will see the Cubs act a lot like these teams. But they needed to stock the farm to resemble those teams systems first.



The Cardinals have been insanely lucky with their low draft picks working out (Miller, Wacha, Carpenter, Adams, Wong, Rosenthal) and trades that worked out (Rasmus/Jackson, etc, Cox/Mujica, Wallace/Holliday) while the Braves have been really lucky with trades as well (Upton/Johnson) and picking the right free agents (Santana, Harang) although they did trade Wainwright and sign both Uggla and BJ Upton. Neither is comparable to Cubs nor is their strategy a good one to emulate considering you would basically be betting on risk.

Last edited 7/22/2014 2:13 PM by PadsFS

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Posted: 7/22/2014 2:24 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



PadsFS wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote: The Cardinals and Braves are the sort of model the Cubs would ultimately like to have. Once the Cubs turn the corner here, you will see the Cubs act a lot like these teams. But they needed to stock the farm to resemble those teams systems first.



The Cardinals have been insanely lucky with their low draft picks working out (Miller, Wacha, Carpenter, Adams, Wong, Rosenthal) and trades that worked out (Rasmus/Jackson, etc, Cox/Mujica, Wallace/Holliday) while the Braves have been really lucky with trades as well (Upton/Johnson) and picking the right free agents (Santana, Harang) although they did trade Wainwright and sign both Uggla and BJ Upton. Neither is comparable to Cubs nor is their strategy a good one to emulate considering you would basically be betting on risk.
Sure, but I am speaking generally that the Braves and Cards tend to draft well (lucky or not) and tend to avoid the planet-killing contracts...man I wish Pujols had accepted the $200M offer from the Cards, an obvious exception to their standard approach. Then, they both are able to leverage their farm also to pick up FAs as needed. It is just a more patient, more reasoned approach then to simply pull out a checkbook and sign the biggest names available. THAT approach only works as long as you can print money to outspend your mistakes.
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Posted: 7/22/2014 2:36 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



HomerInGloamin wrote: You have a rotation with some combination of Darvish, Ryu, Sanchez, Samardzija, Tanaka, Garza, Greinke, Wilson and add a couple bats like Puig, Cespedes & Cruz and you could be playoff team. Once your in the playoffs with good pitching you have a shot at a World Series. You still would have been developing the farm while competing at the major league level.



It's pretty ridiculous that you think they should've signed every international FA that  worked out.

Also, like the article says, if you get these guys, you then definitely miss on Almora, Bryant, and Schwarber and you'll lose Arrieta, Russell, Ramirez, Edwards, Vizcaino, and Hendricks, who were all acquired in sell-off trades.

Also, the Angels lost a draft pick in 2012 for signing Wilson, so you don't just replace Almora with a lower pick, you lose the pick entirely. (In 2012, the Angels also lost their second pick (Pierce Johnson for the Cubs), although that pick wouldn't have been available anyway since Johnson was compensation for Aramis. Same goes for Cruz and Schwarber. Greinke and Sanchez were, at least, not tied to a qualifying offer. In your hypothetical, the Cubs would still get a later pick in 2013 though.

Pretty steep drop-off in prospects, plus a likely $1 billion dollar commitment.

Last edited 7/22/2014 2:43 PM by PadsFS

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Posted: 7/22/2014 2:38 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



SportsGoblin wrote: Sure, but I am speaking generally that the Braves and Cards tend to draft well (lucky or not) and tend to avoid the planet-killing contracts...man I wish Pujols had accepted the $200M offer from the Cards, an obvious exception to their standard approach. Then, they both are able to leverage their farm also to pick up FAs as needed. It is just a more patient, more reasoned approach then to simply pull out a checkbook and sign the biggest names available. THAT approach only works as long as you can print money to outspend your mistakes.

I was really only quoting you to agree with your point and elaborate a bit. biggrin
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Posted: 7/22/2014 2:44 PM

Re: What if the Cubs had tried to "win now"? 



PadsFS wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote: Sure, but I am speaking generally that the Braves and Cards tend to draft well (lucky or not) and tend to avoid the planet-killing contracts...man I wish Pujols had accepted the $200M offer from the Cards, an obvious exception to their standard approach. Then, they both are able to leverage their farm also to pick up FAs as needed. It is just a more patient, more reasoned approach then to simply pull out a checkbook and sign the biggest names available. THAT approach only works as long as you can print money to outspend your mistakes.

I was really only quoting you to agree with your point and elaborate a bit. biggrin
No worries. wink  Believe me I wouldn't mind the success the Cards have had. Be it  scouting, luck, development or pharmaceutical enhancement, they sure have won more than their share.
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