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Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense?

Posted: 6/23/2014 3:50 PM

Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


I know the consensus is to trade Samardzija for pitching prospects. But there are 2 players out there that I think would be very hard to say no to if the Cubs were offered them.  The 2 outfielders people seem to want most in FA are Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus.  But 2 other OF are creating quite a buzz and the simple fact is as good as they are...their current teams are deep in talent at their positions and could afford to trade them if they believe Samardzija is worth it.  It should surprise no one to the 2 names I am referring to.

First off Carlos Gonzalez.  Left-handed bat with power,patience and speed. He may be available because the Rockies already have Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Barnes, Drew Stubbs , and Michael Cuddyer as well as top prospect Kyle Parker waiting in AAA.  Gonzalez's value is also effected by the fact he plays at Coors and he is also having a down year but his tumor probably has a lot to do with that.  Gonzalez is a free agent after 2017 so this would be more than just a rental and for his talent his salary is relatively cheap. 

http://baseballplayersalaries....Carlos_Gonzalez

One concern is the Rockies are not looking like contenders right now so not sure a year and a half would be enough for them to pull the trigger.  But if its more about a salary dump and clearing a spot for another OF than it just might happen.  Also they can turn right around and trade Samardzija again for prospects.


The other is Joc Pederson the Dodgers top prospect.  Again left-handed with similar tools to Carlos Gonzalez except for one major difference...he has not proved himself at the MLB level. Again the Dodgers are loaded with outfielders and unlike the Rockies the Dodgers have pretty steep contracts invested in them.  Carl Crawford doesnt become a FA til sfter 2017, Andre Ethier isnt available for FA til after 2018 and Matt Kemp does not become a FA til after 2019.  And these are some pretty steep contracts when it comes to money, just use the Cargo salary link to check the others if u wanna see.  The Dodgers are in win now mode...Samardzija definitely helps in the sense and this team can actually afford to resign him. In fact I expect if the Dodgers do trade Pederson that they would likely go and sign Carlos Gonzalez when he becomes a FA if not before. Oddly enough people are saying the parks Pederson plays in inflate his numbers just like Cargo, but still I think they are both worth the risk .

Carlos Gonzalez career stats- 2008-2014   SB  109    CS   26    BA .296    OBP .354    SLG .524    OPS .878

       Joc Pederson career stats- 2010-2014   SB  102    CS  33     BA .304     OBP .434    SLG .570   OPs .916

Last edited 6/23/2014 3:53 PM by wrigleykid

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Posted: 6/23/2014 4:29 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


I like the idea of acquiring CarGo, a power-hitting lefty bat to complement the influx of right-handers that will soon be on their way (Bryant, Baez, Soler, Almora).  Having 3 young, established players in Rizzo, Castro, and CarGo could solidify the heart of the order for the next few seasons.



My only worry is that the consensus seems to be that most players peak around age 28.  CarGo will be 29 next season when we might be able to contend.  If his best days are behind him, Pederson would be a better get as his prime years would fall in line with the rest of our top prospects.



Either way, I’d be fine with the centerpiece of the Shark deal being an offensive player, as long as the complementary pieces are some young, high-upside pitchers. 

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Posted: 6/23/2014 4:38 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



wrigleykid wrote: I know the consensus is to trade Samardzija for pitching prospects. 


That certainly isn't my opinion.  A good defensive CF prospect who gets on base would be huge for this team.  Granted, those guys don't really grown on trees but they are out there.  A high level catching prospect would also be of interest.  

I think a good SP prospect is a given to replace JS in the rotation but it doesn't have to be ONLY pitching in return.

I don't see CarGo as an option.  If they are contending they will want to keep him and if they aren't I don't see them wanting to take on JS.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 4:47 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


I don't think the Cubs are at a point where they should be picky about the position. Just acquire talent and worry about how it fits in a few years.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 4:55 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 5:06 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 5:12 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
And you going entirely by your fangraphs know-how. Typical.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 5:19 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



HolyMackeral wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
And you going entirely by your fangraphs know-how. Typical.
Let's be fair...Mackeral I threw out a bunch of statistics on some of the good and bad of these players but still the good out weights the bad...so if you want to make arguments on why these guys suck...it would be nice to back it up with some kind of facts...especially Pederson....not sure what more u would want from a guy playing in triple A...but if u have ur reasons I would be interested in hearing them
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Posted: 6/23/2014 6:11 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



wrigleykid wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
And you going entirely by your fangraphs know-how. Typical.
Let's be fair...Mackeral I threw out a bunch of statistics on some of the good and bad of these players but still the good out weights the bad...so if you want to make arguments on why these guys suck...it would be nice to back it up with some kind of facts...especially Pederson....not sure what more u would want from a guy playing in triple A...but if u have ur reasons I would be interested in hearing them
I really shouldn't have to. The thin air of Albuquerque. You picked two players who's stats are being inflated by where they play their home games. And I said no thanks. MO.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 6:14 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



tautology wrote: I don't think the Cubs are at a point where they should be picky about the position. Just acquire talent and worry about how it fits in a few years.

When it comes to trades, I think they can and should be picky.  This isn't the draft.  With trades you fill organizational needs IMO, and the Cubs need high end pitching.  Unless you want to pay a huge contract for a pitcher on the FA market who is Samardzija's age or older, which Theo recently suggested is not something he likes to do.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 6:28 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



HolyMackeral wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
And you going entirely by your fangraphs know-how. Typical.
1. I don't like Fangraphs
2. Why would I need it to post simple stats?
3. BA had him at 34, BP had him at 50, scout at 30 and MLB had him at 36.
4. If he doesn't get the call this year he probably is in the top 15 in all 4 services for next season.
5. You see yourself as some kind of scouting savant by predicting failure of almost all prospects knowing the percentages are in your favor, but as always the evidence doesn't support your dialogue just like in the case of Tseng where scout after scout was gushing over him.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 6:32 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



KatieCubFan wrote:
tautology wrote: I don't think the Cubs are at a point where they should be picky about the position. Just acquire talent and worry about how it fits in a few years.

When it comes to trades, I think they can and should be picky.  This isn't the draft.  With trades you fill organizational needs IMO, and the Cubs need high end pitching.  Unless you want to pay a huge contract for a pitcher on the FA market who is Samardzija's age or older, which Theo recently suggested is not something he likes to do.
I agree with the sentiment but, if you can get a team that doesn't have the top end pitching prospects (or won't part with them) but does have elite position prospects and is willing to part with them, I say you have to be flexible enough to consider it. Under the current system and set of circumstances, it's going to be more difficult to get back a huge haul in return for Samardzija than most here seem to think. If one team immerges as offering a package above and beyond the others, I say you take it, without the positions being the overwhelming consideration. Again, there will be other opportunities to make a Rizzo-for-Cashner deal in reverse. It's the tail end (we hope) of the rebuild. Go with the highest end talent.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 6:35 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote: Gonzalez is overrated and heading towards being overpayed as he begins his decline years. Pederson is a 4th outfielder type at the MLB level. In two words #@%% no.
A 22 year old lefty that already has 68 career home runs and an OBP over .400 and you already have him pegged as a 4th OF? Typical.
And you going entirely by your fangraphs know-how. Typical.
1. I don't like Fangraphs
2. Why would I need it to post simple stats?
3. BA had him at 34, BP had him at 50, scout at 30 and MLB had him at 36.
4. If he doesn't get the call this year he probably is in the top 15 in all 4 services for next season.
5. You see yourself as some kind of scouting savant by predicting failure of almost all prospects knowing the percentages are in your favor, but as always the evidence doesn't support your dialogue just like in the case of Tseng where scout after scout was gushing over him.
Pleeease, let's stick around long enough to see how the things we differ in turn out. Pederson is a 4th outfielder talent. MO. We shall see.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 7:06 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


CarGo is about 20% better than the average MLB hitter even when you adjust his stats for hitting in Coors.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 7:34 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



tautology wrote: CarGo is about 20% better than the average MLB hitter even when you adjust his stats for hitting in Coors.
You'd be willing to pay the double price of his over 20% of the average outfielders salary and a boatload of prospects for a player headed into his decline years. I wouldn't. I hope the FO doesn't.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 7:38 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



HolyMackeral wrote:
tautology wrote: CarGo is about 20% better than the average MLB hitter even when you adjust his stats for hitting in Coors.
You'd be willing to pay the double price of his over 20% of the average outfielders salary and a boatload of prospects for a player headed into his decline years. I wouldn't. I hope the FO doesn't.

Not a boadload of prospects.  The question is if you'd trade Samardzija for him.  I wouldn't.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 8:01 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


I wouldn't either. I'm just pointing out that he's not really all that overrated. He's a good hitter, Coors or not.
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Posted: 6/23/2014 8:10 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



KatieCubFan wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote:
tautology wrote: CarGo is about 20% better than the average MLB hitter even when you adjust his stats for hitting in Coors.
You'd be willing to pay the double price of his over 20% of the average outfielders salary and a boatload of prospects for a player headed into his decline years. I wouldn't. I hope the FO doesn't.

Not a boadload of prospects.  The question is if you'd trade Samardzija for him.  I wouldn't.
Relative term but, Samardzija could mean a boatload of prospects coming your way. Therefore, if you were to trade him for CarGo..............
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Posted: 6/23/2014 8:22 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 


You are definitely entitled to ur opinion Mackeral...I just dont see how a .OBP of almost .450 can be attributed to thin air...power, yes but still I would trade Samardzija for this guy...I think Almora would then become tradebait...we have quite a few prospects who are likely to be traded for pitching...we have a chance to get a solid pitcher in FA....and I think we have more talent pitching than we have actually seen....again this is just my opinion
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Posted: 6/23/2014 8:43 PM

Re: Should we consider trading Samardzija for elite offense? 



HolyMackeral wrote:
KatieCubFan wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote:
tautology wrote: CarGo is about 20% better than the average MLB hitter even when you adjust his stats for hitting in Coors.
You'd be willing to pay the double price of his over 20% of the average outfielders salary and a boatload of prospects for a player headed into his decline years. I wouldn't. I hope the FO doesn't.

Not a boadload of prospects.  The question is if you'd trade Samardzija for him.  I wouldn't.
Relative term but, Samardzija could mean a boatload of prospects coming your way. Therefore, if you were to trade him for CarGo..............

Ah, good point.  I agree.
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