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Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything

Posted: 6/7/2014 9:56 PM

Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


I have enjoyed it the last few years but to be honest before the new FO I never paid any attention to it.  A bad draft is not the end of the world...but who says we even had a bad draft.   Here are the top picks from 2004.  Lets see how they panned out and how many are studs.

2009

1    Matthew Bush-  SD-  Multiple DUI's have landed him in jail for the next 4 years- Bust
2    Justin Verlander- DET- Stud
3    Philip Humber- NYM- MLB
4    Jeffrey Niemann- TB- Bust
5    Mark Rogers- MIL- MLB
6    Jeremy Sowers- CLE- Bust
7    Homer Bailey- CIN- MLB Solid
8    Wade Townsend- BAL- Bust
9    Christopher Nelson- COL- MLB Solid
10  Thomas Diamond- TEX- Bust
11  Neil Walker- PIT- MLB Solid
12  Jered Weaver- LAA- Stud
13  William Bray- MON- Bust
14  Billy Butler- KC- MLB Solid
15  Stephen Drew- ARZ- MLB Solid
16  David Purcey- TOR- MLB
17  Scott Elbert- LAD- MLB
18  Joshua Fields- CHW- MLB
19  Christopher Lambert- STL- Bust-  Apparently not everything  they touch turns to gold
20  Trevor Plouffe- MIN- MLB
21  Gregory Golson- PHI- MLB
22  Glen Perkins- MIN- MLB
23  Philip Hughes- NYY- MLB Solid
24  Landon Powell- OAK- Bust
25  Steven Waldrop- MIN- Bust
26  Richard Robnett- OAK- Bust
27  Taylor Tankersley- FLA- Bust
28  Blake Dewitt- LAD- MLB
29  Matthew Campbell- KC- Bust
30  Eric Hurley- Bust

So out of 30 players who were supposed to be a sure thing.  17 had what you could call a Major league career though a few could easily be added to the Bust list.  6 of them ended up being solid contributions...and 2 ended up being studs.

Just trying to give some comfort to the people who are disgusted.

Yes this is a small sample size but it random...and if you want more results I would be glad to do another tomorrow..  But from what I have heard I would expect similar results...and this is just the first round...results get lower and lower as the draft continues.


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Posted: 6/8/2014 1:46 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


I'm just not sure how anyone can be "disgusted". Has anyone here watched these guys throw more than a handful of pitches or take more than a few ABs?

The other thing I think people overlook is that scouts and GMs are familiar with their own organization and the way they teach prospects. While a certain guy may seem like a great pick, scouts know when his personality makes him an unlikely fit in their organization. As fans we don't always have some of the "behind-the-scenes" info that justifies why a team took one player over another.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 8:29 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


I agree, baseball is the one sport that you have no clue when you draft.  Even top5 picks.

 

It is nothing like the nba or the nfl where things are more sure.

 

I have even watched the draft the last 3 years or so.

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Posted: 6/8/2014 8:50 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


Yeah I don't know if anyone is disgusted. I wasn't excited about the first pick but understand it is a crapshoot. I think most understand that element.

Btw, I believe Billy Butler was an all start within just a few years after being drafted. Probably more than just "solid."
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Posted: 6/8/2014 9:16 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



SPOONER wrote: Yeah I don't know if anyone is disgusted. I wasn't excited about the first pick but understand it is a crapshoot. I think most understand that element.

Btw, I believe Billy Butler was an all start within just a few years after being drafted. Probably more than just "solid."
fair enough...he kind of flew under my radar...the cool thing about the site I am using is I can pick any year of the draft and it takes me to their stats...like the first pick...hasnt played a couple years...so I googled him...just sentenced to 4 years in prison after already serving 9 months...he was JUST senteced a few days before the draft...talk about irony
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Posted: 6/8/2014 9:52 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



wrigleykid wrote:
SPOONER wrote: Yeah I don't know if anyone is disgusted. I wasn't excited about the first pick but understand it is a crapshoot. I think most understand that element.

Btw, I believe Billy Butler was an all start within just a few years after being drafted. Probably more than just "solid."
fair enough...he kind of flew under my radar...the cool thing about the site I am using is I can pick any year of the draft and it takes me to their stats...like the first pick...hasnt played a couple years...so I googled him...just sentenced to 4 years in prison after already serving 9 months...he was JUST senteced a few days before the draft...talk about irony
That doesn't make him a bad pick though. From what I read, Kyle was graded lower to not having an "athletic body" even though he hits the tar out of the ball and has a great understanding of the strike zone (I believe he walked more then he struck out this past year). I much rather have a guy who can hit like crazy and need to find him a position then drafting a great "athlete" which several were saying on here even though he doesn't really understand on how to hit or even better yet draft a guy "because his family made it to the MLB" (that is old school BS!). You can always go on a diet and learn how to play one of the corner outfield spots. You cannot learn how to hit.

And ultimately it is a crapshoot so like I said in another post, who knows how these guys turn out in the end. About the only few certain things right now is the Cubs are continuing with their spray machine gun like approach of just trying to get as many assets in the minor system ASAP and letting the chips fall and continuing to use as up to date computer analysis to help with the "eye test" of their scout as possible.

Last edited 6/8/2014 9:54 AM by PorkChopExpress12

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Posted: 6/8/2014 10:10 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



wrigleykid wrote: I have enjoyed it the last few years but to be honest before the new FO I never paid any attention to it.  A bad draft is not the end of the world...but who says we even had a bad draft.   .


When you are in the middle of rebuilding a team based on the farm then the draft is everything. The front office calls the draft their super bowl showing the importance. Some day when the focus is not on building with prospects you will be right that the draft isn't everything.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 12:24 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



PorkChopExpress12 wrote:
wrigleykid wrote:
SPOONER wrote: Yeah I don't know if anyone is disgusted. I wasn't excited about the first pick but understand it is a crapshoot. I think most understand that element.

Btw, I believe Billy Butler was an all start within just a few years after being drafted. Probably more than just "solid."
fair enough...he kind of flew under my radar...the cool thing about the site I am using is I can pick any year of the draft and it takes me to their stats...like the first pick...hasnt played a couple years...so I googled him...just sentenced to 4 years in prison after already serving 9 months...he was JUST senteced a few days before the draft...talk about irony
That doesn't make him a bad pick though. From what I read, Kyle was graded lower to not having an "athletic body" even though he hits the tar out of the ball and has a great understanding of the strike zone (I believe he walked more then he struck out this past year). I much rather have a guy who can hit like crazy and need to find him a position then drafting a great "athlete" which several were saying on here even though he doesn't really understand on how to hit or even better yet draft a guy "because his family made it to the MLB" (that is old school BS!). You can always go on a diet and learn how to play one of the corner outfield spots. You cannot learn how to hit.

And ultimately it is a crapshoot so like I said in another post, who knows how these guys turn out in the end. About the only few certain things right now is the Cubs are continuing with their spray machine gun like approach of just trying to get as many assets in the minor system ASAP and letting the chips fall and continuing to use as up to date computer analysis to help with the "eye test" of their scout as possible.
i didnt mean it like that...he flew under my radar...If he was a stud thats my bad...I debated on a few names and he was one of them.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 12:37 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



FirstAmendmentFreedom wrote:
wrigleykid wrote: I have enjoyed it the last few years but to be honest before the new FO I never paid any attention to it.  A bad draft is not the end of the world...but who says we even had a bad draft.   .


When you are in the middle of rebuilding a team based on the farm then the draft is everything. The front office calls the draft their super bowl showing the importance. Some day when the focus is not on building with prospects you will be right that the draft isn't everything.
I dont agree its everything...its just more magnified because of the rebuild...just like Castros defense

I believe there are about 30 players in the Majors from the 2009 draft...only a handful have a WAR above 1.

5 out of 6 draftees never reach the majors.

I am not overly thrilled with this years draft...but after doing my own research I am not gonna sweat it anymore...We drafted a lot of young talent in the later rounds...a bunch will be hard to sign but lets see how that works out
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Posted: 6/8/2014 2:09 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


When you are openly in a rebuild, trading current assets with the hopes of attaining future assets, reducing payroll yearly while concentrating almost exclusively on the accumulation of MiLB talent, the draft is in essence everything.

To counter a few of the uninformed points made:

While there is a large element of the unknown, as with a crap shoot, in the draft one fact is certain, with each passing round, there is a huge, steadfast statistical reduction in the probability of picking a MLB talent. And in the top two round, the higher the pick, the better the chance that you have selected a player that will eventually make it onto a MLB roster. The majority of the stars are produced in the first round.

While draft boards vary, rarely is there a great divergence like with the Cubs FO claims of having Schwarber as their no. 2 , when all of the many published rankings had him below the top 10. Stinnett was even more of a bump up from where all the publicly disclosed rankings of draft prospects had him placed. In 2004, in a draft said to lack a clearly established top tier, Matt Bush was a bonus saving reach. While failed prospects reside everywhere throughout the ratings lists, on any given draft year, statistically there are far more hits at the tops of the draft service lists than anywhere else and there hasn't been a year where it was even close to not being the case. Late round over-slots are not nearly as successful, statisticall,y as the top drafedt talent on any given draft.

The draft is akin to a crap shoot, a game of chance. Anybody who knows anything about gambling knows that you greatly increase your chance at success in games of chance by applying statistical analysis. The Cubs must feel they know better than the conventional industry standard. I say statistically, the chances are slim.

And from the perspective of past results I don't see what Hoyer and MacLeod did with their drafts in SD or what Theo did in Boston, beyond his over-slotted targets, that would inspire confidence that they know more than everybody else in their first three selections this year. Based on the early results from their first two drafts with the Cubs they have one obvious big hit in Bryant, as all the rest are looking iffy or very limited in potential impact despite picking extremely high up in both drafts. And Bryant was a top 3 talent on everyones board, top two on most. And he was picked at two.....they somehow got that one right it would seem.

And IF, as was suggested, there is this big importance placed by the FO on issues beyond the playing field, in finding players that would make good fits in this system that leads to the drafting of significantly lower-ceiling talent at the crucial top portion of the draft, then the system is broken.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 2:48 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


the system is not broken...but its damaged for sure.

In 2006 we struck out with Colvin...but later in the draft hit a HR with Samardzija...not using that as a prime example...but more speaking to the crapshoot...though Colvin was signed for under 2mil....which was probably underslot...could not find what Shark signed for...but the money and rules have changed since then I am sure
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Posted: 6/8/2014 2:55 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



wrigleykid wrote: the system is not broken...but its damaged for sure.

In 2006 we struck out with Colvin...but later in the draft hit a HR with Samardzija...not using that as a prime example...but more speaking to the crapshoot...though Colvin was signed for under 2mil....which was probably underslot...could not find what Shark signed for...but the money and rules have changed since then I am sure
They didn't have the stupid slot system then, but what Shark got would have been over slot.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 3:08 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


I don't believe Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon, or Youkilis were overslotted. Theo built the Red Sox farm system with the help of overslotting, but that doesn't mean his drafting wasn't strong in Boston.
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Posted: 6/8/2014 8:47 PM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


@ProfessorParks: I thought it was fantastic. RT @OhTheHorror_13 @ProfessorParks if you had to issue a grade, how well/not well did the cubs draft this year?

Manuel of BA also tweeted during day two that he thought the Cubs were "killing it" and if they get those guys signed "big day".
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Posted: 6/9/2014 2:54 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


I agree with Manuel, Katie. Our Day 1 of the draft could wind up to be "Mehhhh..." or it could wind up to be solid. Time will tell. Looking at how much quality pitching we got on Day 2, as well as a defensively solid catcher, we could wind up with one of the best "Day 2" drafts out of the 30 clubs. Jump ahead 3-4 years, 3-4 or our bullpen arms could well come from this draft, as well as at least 1 MLB starting pitcher and (at minimum) a back-up catcher. As for our "Day 3" picks, getting 3-4 of the high-ceiling high schoolers signed to over-slot deals would make the draft a huge success. We'll have to wait & see on that.

I am not a fan of what the team is doing with the on-field MLB product, but I trust Theo & the Gang 110% on their drafting skills. They built one of the deepest farm systems in baseball in Boston, and now they're doing the same here. With our 1st round pick, they may have been ordered by Ricketts to take a 'below slot' pick--or not--but we will never know. The "he was #2 on our charts all along" rings of lip service and spin; but, he was still one of the best college bats available (and a LH hitter with power).

Like all drafts, this one will take a year or more to show if we "chose wisely" or "chose poorly" overall. I do believe our Day 2 picks will stack up against any team in basebal for their potential impact on the MLB club 3-4 years down the line. 

Back to drooling over who we can get for who is trades and praying for Scheirholtz, Bonnificio, Barney, and Ruggiano to get their numbers up to generate some trade value... rolleyes

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.”  ~Albert Einstein

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Posted: 6/9/2014 8:10 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


Don't you guys understand. Our draft sucked because we didn't draft any players whose major league comp is Cameron Maybin. He of the .686 career OPS and 9 career WAR at age 27.

Seriously, I was listening to the Baseball America podcast today and they were gushing about a draftee who reminded them of Cameron Maybin. The fact that he profiled as a top 10 pick 9 years ago is more important than the fact that he's not very good at baseball. Talk about a broken system.
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Posted: 6/9/2014 9:19 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



mindbodyspirit wrote:  Looking at how much quality pitching we got on Day 2, as well as a defensively solid catcher, we could wind up with one of the best "Day 2" drafts out of the 30 clubs.

the cather Zagunis already signed and quite a bit of the tough signing pitchers are showing high interest

Carson Sands
Justin Steele
James Norwood
James Farris
Ryan Williams-  could be a hidden gem

Heres hoping to add Cease,Brink, and Bass to the list
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Posted: 6/9/2014 9:33 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


You realize the Cubs knew exactly what the HS arms wanted when they picked them. They actually had a plan. They will sign the Top 10 picks, that's pretty much a given, no need to hope or worry or whatever.

And if you can't develop talent, doesn't matter who you draft.

Last edited 6/9/2014 9:34 AM by MikeNesterNR

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Posted: 6/9/2014 10:31 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 



MikeNesterNR wrote: You realize the Cubs knew exactly what the HS arms wanted when they picked them. They actually had a plan. They will sign the Top 10 picks, that's pretty much a given, no need to hope or worry or whatever.

And if you can't develop talent, doesn't matter who you draft.
You always have a plan but there is no way to know if the HS arms they wanted would be available when they drafted.
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Posted: 6/9/2014 10:35 AM

Re: Take heart everyone, the draft isn't everything 


Had plenty of high school arms on list to fit the bill. It was the strength of draft. If those 3 taken, get 3 more. Cubs know more than Baseball America or you.
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