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core players

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Posted: 8/17/2013 11:16 AM

core players 


It has been assumed the Cubs core revolves around Rizzo, Castro and Samardzija. I'm defining a core player as a impact player that you build around and capable of a WAR of 4 or greater.

Currently no player fits as a core player based on performance -

Castro - FO and coaches have tried to change his approach and results are one of the lowest ranked position players. Does not fit style of front office and could see him traded after 2014 season.

Samardzija - If he does not sign extension this off season I think he will be shopped next July.

Rizzo - hasn't regressed but has also not realized his potential. above average 1b but may not be the impact player many projected.

It does not appear this offseason will produce any core players via free agency or trade so the wait will come until the farm produces. Hopefully Baez or Bryant become the new core but give them a couple years to adjust to the majors and you are looking at 2017 before the playoff run begins.
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Posted: 8/17/2013 12:56 PM

Re: core players 



cubs2007 wrote: It has been assumed the Cubs core revolves around Rizzo, Castro and Samardzija. I'm defining a core player as a impact player that you build around and capable of a WAR of 4 or greater.

Currently no player fits as a core player based on performance -

Castro - FO and coaches have tried to change his approach and results are one of the lowest ranked position players. Does not fit style of front office and could see him traded after 2014 season.

Samardzija - If he does not sign extension this off season I think he will be shopped next July.

Rizzo - hasn't regressed but has also not realized his potential. above average 1b but may not be the impact player many projected.

It does not appear this offseason will produce any core players via free agency or trade so the wait will come until the farm produces. Hopefully Baez or Bryant become the new core but give them a couple years to adjust to the majors and you are looking at 2017 before the playoff run begins.
A WAR of 4.0 is a very high standard. There are 43 current position players and 21 pitchers that have a WAR of at least 3.0 currently and hence might get to 4.0 this year. That's about 2 such players per team assuming equal distribution...assuming ALL of the guys with a 3.0 WAR currently get to 4.0 by year's end.

Guys that will not come anywhere close to meeting this standard this year include very expensive players you would once call core like Greinke, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, etc. Several Cubs will complete the year with WARs higher than these guys.

This is a less-than-perfect standard. Rather than trying to get a guy who might give you a 4.0 WAR, instead simply try to maximize the performance you can get from each position. 

Exactly how many 4.0 players are you saying a team needs to be in contention?
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Posted: 8/17/2013 1:02 PM

Re: core players 



cubs2007 wrote: It has been assumed the Cubs core revolves around Rizzo, Castro and Samardzija. I'm defining a core player as a impact player that you build around and capable of a WAR of 4 or greater.

Currently no player fits as a core player based on performance -

Castro - FO and coaches have tried to change his approach and results are one of the lowest ranked position players. Does not fit style of front office and could see him traded after 2014 season.

Samardzija - If he does not sign extension this off season I think he will be shopped next July.

Rizzo - hasn't regressed but has also not realized his potential. above average 1b but may not be the impact player many projected.

It does not appear this offseason will produce any core players via free agency or trade so the wait will come until the farm produces. Hopefully Baez or Bryant become the new core but give them a couple years to adjust to the majors and you are looking at 2017 before the playoff run begins.
Travis Wood is on pace for a 4.2-4.3 WAR season--by your own narrow definition that makes him a core piece, non? Also, Castro had a 4.3 WAR just last year which, I guess, means that he's capable of 4...are you saying that he's irreparably damaged and will never reach that level as a Cub again? And writing off Rizzo's chances of being really good after 1000 AB's seems, oh, just a bit hasty...as does your conclusion the the FO won't make any significant acquisitions over the next three offseasons. Good grief--I can understand where some Cubs fans might see the glass as either half-empty or half-full, but p*ssing in the glass and then complaining that the water's undrinkable is another thing altogether.
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Posted: 8/17/2013 1:10 PM

Re: core players 



Grandpaboy1967 wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: It has been assumed the Cubs core revolves around Rizzo, Castro and Samardzija. I'm defining a core player as a impact player that you build around and capable of a WAR of 4 or greater.

Currently no player fits as a core player based on performance -

Castro - FO and coaches have tried to change his approach and results are one of the lowest ranked position players. Does not fit style of front office and could see him traded after 2014 season.

Samardzija - If he does not sign extension this off season I think he will be shopped next July.

Rizzo - hasn't regressed but has also not realized his potential. above average 1b but may not be the impact player many projected.

It does not appear this offseason will produce any core players via free agency or trade so the wait will come until the farm produces. Hopefully Baez or Bryant become the new core but give them a couple years to adjust to the majors and you are looking at 2017 before the playoff run begins.
Travis Wood is on pace for a 4.2-4.3 WAR season--by your own narrow definition that makes him a core piece, non? Also, Castro had a 4.3 WAR just last year which, I guess, means that he's capable of 4...are you saying that he's irreparably damaged and will never reach that level as a Cub again? And writing off Rizzo's chances of being really good after 1000 AB's seems, oh, just a bit hasty...as does your conclusion the the FO won't make any significant acquisitions over the next three offseasons. Good grief--I can understand where some Cubs fans might see the glass as either half-empty or half-full, but p*ssing in the glass and then complaining that the water's undrinkable is another thing altogether.
A lot of people seem to think that, starting with a manager who thought Shawn Camp and his low 80s fastball would turn it around eventually.
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Posted: 8/17/2013 2:48 PM

Re: core players 



Grandpaboy1967 wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: It has been assumed the Cubs core revolves around Rizzo, Castro and Samardzija. I'm defining a core player as a impact player that you build around and capable of a WAR of 4 or greater.

Currently no player fits as a core player based on performance -

Castro - FO and coaches have tried to change his approach and results are one of the lowest ranked position players. Does not fit style of front office and could see him traded after 2014 season.

Samardzija - If he does not sign extension this off season I think he will be shopped next July.

Rizzo - hasn't regressed but has also not realized his potential. above average 1b but may not be the impact player many projected.

It does not appear this offseason will produce any core players via free agency or trade so the wait will come until the farm produces. Hopefully Baez or Bryant become the new core but give them a couple years to adjust to the majors and you are looking at 2017 before the playoff run begins.
Travis Wood is on pace for a 4.2-4.3 WAR season--by your own narrow definition that makes him a core piece, non? Also, Castro had a 4.3 WAR just last year which, I guess, means that he's capable of 4...are you saying that he's irreparably damaged and will never reach that level as a Cub again? And writing off Rizzo's chances of being really good after 1000 AB's seems, oh, just a bit hasty...as does your conclusion the the FO won't make any significant acquisitions over the next three offseasons. Good grief--I can understand where some Cubs fans might see the glass as either half-empty or half-full, but p*ssing in the glass and then complaining that the water's undrinkable is another thing altogether.
emlaughing2.gifemlaughing2.gifemlaughing2.gifI would also add that Barney had one of the highest WAR's of any player last year, and although he has been terrible this year his 3 year average as a starter is still greater than a 2 WAR.

Rizzo was on pace for a 4 WAR last year and T Wood could get there this year. If using WAR is the metric, then I think having 8 players with 3+ WAR in the same season, would be a recipe for success. The Cubs (according to BR) have 2 position players (Castillo and Rizzo) and 1 starter (T Wood) that will hit that mark this season. Next year could Castro and Barney return to 3 WAR players with Rizzo staying at the level? Almost impossible. Can Wood repeat with Samardzija and Jackson joining them? Almost impossible. Not hard to see why the prospects of a turnaround is nearly impossible without acquiring new players or some of the prospects getting an early call.

By 2015, I certainly could see 5+ producing 3 WAR from the list of

Baez
Castro
Bryant
Rizzo
Castillo
Alcantara
Barney
Olt
Almora
Soler
Vizcaino
Samardzija
Jackson
Hendricks
Wood

Many times elite prospects don't require a couple of years to start performing at this level. I know it is hard to grasp the concept for some, but the Cubs have elite level prospects.
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Posted: 8/17/2013 2:52 PM

RE: core players 


I'm looking forward to reading this thread over the next month! Should be good entertainment.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 7:54 AM

Re: core players 



SportsGoblin wrote:
A WAR of 4.0 is a very high standard. There are 43 current position players and 21 pitchers that have a WAR of at least 3.0 currently and hence might get to 4.0 this year. That's about 2 such players per team assuming equal distribution...assuming ALL of the guys with a 3.0 WAR currently get to 4.0 by year's end.

Guys that will not come anywhere close to meeting this standard this year include very expensive players you would once call core like Greinke, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, etc. Several Cubs will complete the year with WARs higher than these guys.

This is a less-than-perfect standard. Rather than trying to get a guy who might give you a 4.0 WAR, instead simply try to maximize the performance you can get from each position. 

Exactly how many 4.0 players are you saying a team needs to be in contention?
Fangraphs defines a solid starter as a 2-3 WAR, good player as a 3-4 WAR and an all star level as a 4-5 WAR. Core players are your impact player that can carry the team and then you fill in with the complimentary players. I'm not saying they need to be 4+ WAR players each season but more than a 1 year wonder and are capable of doing it multiple times. I would say you need 2-3 position players and 2-3 pitchers capable of that type performance.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 7:58 AM

Re: core players 



absolutebadger wrote:

Many times elite prospects don't require a couple of years to start performing at this level. I know it is hard to grasp the concept for some, but the Cubs have elite level prospects.
And the concept you fail to grasp is the high failure/attrition rate/not reaching ceiling of these prospects. Baseball Americas top 20 prospects fail at a rate of 40% and if in the top 100 fail at a 70% rate. (failure defined as not making majors or if makes majors a 1.5 WAR or less)
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Posted: 8/19/2013 8:23 AM

Re: core players 



Grandpaboy1967 wrote:
Travis Wood is on pace for a 4.2-4.3 WAR season--by your own narrow definition that makes him a core piece, non? Also, Castro had a 4.3 WAR just last year which, I guess, means that he's capable of 4...are you saying that he's irreparably damaged and will never reach that level as a Cub again? And writing off Rizzo's chances of being really good after 1000 AB's seems, oh, just a bit hasty...as does your conclusion the the FO won't make any significant acquisitions over the next three offseasons.
I did not write off Rizzo - I just pointed out he has not realized predictions based off his performance. This off season is supposed to be the same as last offseason in regards to  the type of acquisitions made. The plan hinges on a few prospects becoming impact players which I still think is years away.

Will the assumed current core of Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija still be on the team in 2 years ? I think good chance both Samardzija and Castro traded.

Castro has not had a 4 WAR season yet and lets let Wood complete 1 before assuming he can do multiple times.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 8:32 AM

Re: core players 


Cubs 2007, have you ever played any sports or at the very least through Legion baseball in high school?

Castro is what 23-24 years old and has shown that he can hit over 300 in a season twice already and you are ready to write him off because he has fallen apart this year? It's not like he has any protection in the current lineup or really all year.

Rizzo has about a 1000 MLB ABs and you want to write him off as well? Again the guy has no protection.

How the heck did you go from 2015 to 2017 in a matter of 1 month worth of posts? We have tons of talent in the minor leagues that are getting better and better each day.

1) Baez (has put up comparable number to YP in the minors)
2) Soler
3) Almora- hopefully can get over the injuries
4) AA
5) Bryant
6) Hendricks
7) Olt or Villennava (Sp)

I'd bet that at least 4 of these will be upgrades to the Cubs by 2015. Then you have good hitters that have been playing with each other for years (in the minors) feeding off of each other and knowing how each other plays. With Castro and Rizzi as the guys that will benefit the most.

Why most you always focus on the negatives and spin the posts so that people are talking about you more than the players. Are you that insecure with the rest of your life.
cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:

Many times elite prospects don't require a couple of years to start performing at this level. I know it is hard to grasp the concept for some, but the Cubs have elite level prospects.
And the concept you fail to grasp is the high failure/attrition rate/not reaching ceiling of these prospects. Baseball Americas top 20 prospects fail at a rate of 40% and if in the top 100 fail at a 70% rate. (failure defined as not making majors or if makes majors a 1.5 WAR or less)
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Posted: 8/19/2013 8:45 AM

Re: core players 



redwave23 wrote: Cubs 2007, have you ever played any sports or at the very least through Legion baseball in high school?

Castro is what 23-24 years old and has shown that he can hit over 300 in a season twice already and you are ready to write him off because he has fallen apart this year? It's not like he has any protection in the current lineup or really all year.

Rizzo has about a 1000 MLB ABs and you want to write him off as well? Again the guy has no protection.

How the heck did you go from 2015 to 2017 in a matter of 1 month worth of posts? We have tons of talent in the minor leagues that are getting better and better each day.

1) Baez (has put up comparable number to YP in the minors)
2) Soler
3) Almora- hopefully can get over the injuries
4) AA
5) Bryant
6) Hendricks
7) Olt or Villennava (Sp)

I'd bet that at least 4 of these will be upgrades to the Cubs by 2015. Then you have good hitters that have been playing with each other for years (in the minors) feeding off of each other and knowing how each other plays. With Castro and Rizzi as the guys that will benefit the most.

Why most you always focus on the negatives and spin the posts so that people are talking about you more than the players. Are you that insecure with the rest of your life.
cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:

Many times elite prospects don't require a couple of years to start performing at this level. I know it is hard to grasp the concept for some, but the Cubs have elite level prospects.
And the concept you fail to grasp is the high failure/attrition rate/not reaching ceiling of these prospects. Baseball Americas top 20 prospects fail at a rate of 40% and if in the top 100 fail at a 70% rate. (failure defined as not making majors or if makes majors a 1.5 WAR or less)
Yes they are.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 9:18 AM

Re: core players 


I'm not trying to focus on the negative - I focus on reality which most don't do on this site. I have not written off Rizzo but just pointed out the fact he is not performing at the level that would justify him being called a core player. Potential still there but no certainty he reaches his ceiling.

I go from 2015 to 2017 based on the arrival date of the better prospects and the normal curve of adjusting to the league.

You list a number of players and feel 4 will be upgrades. This may be the key to the whole rebuild. I see half your list as non factors and a few as solid regulars and 1 reaching all star level. Is that good enough to be a playoff team or just being negative/realistic ?
redwave23 wrote:
Castro is what 23-24 years old and has shown that he can hit over 300 in a season twice already and you are ready to write him off because he has fallen apart this year? It's not like he has any protection in the current lineup or really all year.

Rizzo has about a 1000 MLB ABs and you want to write him off as well? Again the guy has no protection.

How the heck did you go from 2015 to 2017 in a matter of 1 month worth of posts? We have tons of talent in the minor leagues that are getting better and better each day.

1) Baez (has put up comparable number to YP in the minors)
2) Soler
3) Almora- hopefully can get over the injuries
4) AA
5) Bryant
6) Hendricks
7) Olt or Villennava (Sp)

I'd bet that at least 4 of these will be upgrades to the Cubs by 2015. Then you have good hitters that have been playing with each other for years (in the minors) feeding off of each other and knowing how each other plays. With Castro and Rizzi as the guys that will benefit the most.

Why most you always focus on the negatives and spin the posts so that people are talking about you more than the players.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 9:32 AM

Re: core players 


Here is a math question for you kids.

If the Cubs enter next season with2 in the top 20 and 3 in the 20-50 range. How many of them will turn in to MLB success stories, averaging more than 1.5 WAR over their controlled years?

The Success rate of the top position players are as follows

top 20- 62%
from 20-50 - 33%

The success rate of position players in the top 20 is very high (62%), from 20-50 the success rate is about 1 in 3 and from 50 -100 the success rate is about 1 in 4. When I say that Lake is a long shot to be an OF starter this is the evidence I have on my side, and the fact that Lake is no where near the top 100 prospects.

Pitchers succeed at a much slower rate.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 9:33 AM

Re: core players 



cubs2007 wrote: I'm not trying to focus on the negative - I focus on reality which most don't do on this site. I have not written off Rizzo but just pointed out the fact he is not performing at the level that would justify him being called a core player. Potential still there but no certainty he reaches his ceiling.

I go from 2015 to 2017 based on the arrival date of the better prospects and the normal curve of adjusting to the league.

You list a number of players and feel 4 will be upgrades. This may be the key to the whole rebuild. I see half your list as non factors and a few as solid regulars and 1 reaching all star level. Is that good enough to be a playoff team or just being negative/realistic ?
redwave23 wrote:
Castro is what 23-24 years old and has shown that he can hit over 300 in a season twice already and you are ready to write him off because he has fallen apart this year? It's not like he has any protection in the current lineup or really all year.

Rizzo has about a 1000 MLB ABs and you want to write him off as well? Again the guy has no protection.

How the heck did you go from 2015 to 2017 in a matter of 1 month worth of posts? We have tons of talent in the minor leagues that are getting better and better each day.

1) Baez (has put up comparable number to YP in the minors)
2) Soler
3) Almora- hopefully can get over the injuries
4) AA
5) Bryant
6) Hendricks
7) Olt or Villennava (Sp)

I'd bet that at least 4 of these will be upgrades to the Cubs by 2015. Then you have good hitters that have been playing with each other for years (in the minors) feeding off of each other and knowing how each other plays. With Castro and Rizzi as the guys that will benefit the most.

Why most you always focus on the negatives and spin the posts so that people are talking about you more than the players.
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 9:42 AM

Re: core players 



SportsGoblin wrote:
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
Depth does not correct the fact that not all prospects will work out. The odds are even higher for failure rates on the depth type prospects you list. On top of that the ceilings of many of your depth type players are bench or back of the rotation type players.

I like that the Cubs farm system is one of the best in baseball and that resources are allocated to continue the stocking of the system. It just seems to me that fans expectations on the success rate of prospects and how many will be key pieces of the major league team is unrealistic.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 9:45 AM

Re: core players 



SportsGoblin wrote:
cubs2007 wrote: I'm not trying to focus on the negative - I focus on reality which most don't do on this site. I have not written off Rizzo but just pointed out the fact he is not performing at the level that would justify him being called a core player. Potential still there but no certainty he reaches his ceiling.

I go from 2015 to 2017 based on the arrival date of the better prospects and the normal curve of adjusting to the league.

You list a number of players and feel 4 will be upgrades. This may be the key to the whole rebuild. I see half your list as non factors and a few as solid regulars and 1 reaching all star level. Is that good enough to be a playoff team or just being negative/realistic ?
redwave23 wrote:
Castro is what 23-24 years old and has shown that he can hit over 300 in a season twice already and you are ready to write him off because he has fallen apart this year? It's not like he has any protection in the current lineup or really all year.

Rizzo has about a 1000 MLB ABs and you want to write him off as well? Again the guy has no protection.

How the heck did you go from 2015 to 2017 in a matter of 1 month worth of posts? We have tons of talent in the minor leagues that are getting better and better each day.

1) Baez (has put up comparable number to YP in the minors)
2) Soler
3) Almora- hopefully can get over the injuries
4) AA
5) Bryant
6) Hendricks
7) Olt or Villennava (Sp)

I'd bet that at least 4 of these will be upgrades to the Cubs by 2015. Then you have good hitters that have been playing with each other for years (in the minors) feeding off of each other and knowing how each other plays. With Castro and Rizzi as the guys that will benefit the most.

Why most you always focus on the negatives and spin the posts so that people are talking about you more than the players.
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
They do have much more depth as well as more elite prospects than I can remember for the last 25 years. Some of the top 30 Cubs could play themselves into a top 50/100 prospect, not likely. Elite prospects generally establish themselves at an early age. The success rate of guys outside the top 100 is not good. That is not to say they don't have value as depth/bullpen type players. A good team needs a couple of guys that are top 5 at their position and a couple of starters that can solidify a staff. The Cubs don't have far to go to be an average team, but to compete with the Braves, Dodgers, Cards, Reds and even the Pirates, they need more top end talent. Some of that fringe top 100 depth and below will have to be shopped for pitching at some point, because there really are not any stud arms anywhere in the system, unless Vizcaino ever gets healthy.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 10:11 AM

Re: core players 



cubs2007 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
Depth does not correct the fact that not all prospects will work out. The odds are even higher for failure rates on the depth type prospects you list. On top of that the ceilings of many of your depth type players are bench or back of the rotation type players.

I like that the Cubs farm system is one of the best in baseball and that resources are allocated to continue the stocking of the system. It just seems to me that fans expectations on the success rate of prospects and how many will be key pieces of the major league team is unrealistic.
Let's take 3B just as an example. There might be a 20% chance Olt works out to become a serviceable 3B in the majors. Vitters I would give the same 20%, Bryant maybe 30%, Villanueva 10%, Candelario 10% and Alcantara 20%.

Now, none of them might have a great chance of making it individually. But collectively, the odds that none of the above will make it is:

(.8)(.8)(.7)(.9)(.9)(.8) = .29 = 29%.

So assuming the above player success estimates are correct, there is a 71% chance that at least one of the above guys would work out. Hence, depth does correct for the fact that not all prospects will work out. That is, after all, the whole point.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 10:52 AM

Re: core players 


Please clarify this statement 2007. - Depth does not correct the fact that not all prospects will work out.

That's exactly what it does...If you have more depth and top 50/100/150 talent then you have a better chance of 1 of the guys at 3rd base to work out.


cubs2007 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
Depth does not correct the fact that not all prospects will work out. The odds are even higher for failure rates on the depth type prospects you list. On top of that the ceilings of many of your depth type players are bench or back of the rotation type players.

I like that the Cubs farm system is one of the best in baseball and that resources are allocated to continue the stocking of the system. It just seems to me that fans expectations on the success rate of prospects and how many will be key pieces of the major league team is unrealistic.
Let's take 3B just as an example. There might be a 20% chance Olt works out to become a serviceable 3B in the majors. Vitters I would give the same 20%, Bryant maybe 30%, Villanueva 10%, Candelario 10% and Alcantara 20%.

Now, none of them might have a great chance of making it individually. But collectively, the odds that none of the above will make it is:

(.8)(.8)(.7)(.9)(.9)(.8) = .29 = 29%.

So assuming the above player success estimates are correct, there is a 71% chance that at least one of the above guys would work out. Hence, depth does correct for the fact that not all prospects will work out. That is, after all, the whole point.
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Posted: 8/19/2013 11:16 AM

Re: core players 



SportsGoblin wrote:
cubs2007 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
Cubs2007, I will agree with you on the fact that most prospects don't end up becoming successful major leaguers. Some of the above clearly will not work out.

But here is the part you are being too pessimistic to get: depth. This isn't the old Cubs farm system where they hailed the praises of one guy, be it Patterson, Pie or yes even Brett Jackson. 

In addition to all the guys mentioned above, they have Candelario, Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, CJ Edwards, Ha, Andreoli, Szczur, Jokisch, Cabrera, Rosscup..the overall depth of the farm is so much better than it was before Theo & gang took over. Some of these non-elite prospects will work out, and if Almora fails but Ha steps up and gives the productivity we were hoping from Almora...as a Cubs fan I don't so much care which prospect pans out so long as enough pan out to deliver a good major league club. The depth corrects for the fact that not all prospects will work out.
Depth does not correct the fact that not all prospects will work out. The odds are even higher for failure rates on the depth type prospects you list. On top of that the ceilings of many of your depth type players are bench or back of the rotation type players.

I like that the Cubs farm system is one of the best in baseball and that resources are allocated to continue the stocking of the system. It just seems to me that fans expectations on the success rate of prospects and how many will be key pieces of the major league team is unrealistic.
Let's take 3B just as an example. There might be a 20% chance Olt works out to become a serviceable 3B in the majors. Vitters I would give the same 20%, Bryant maybe 30%, Villanueva 10%, Candelario 10% and Alcantara 20%.

Now, none of them might have a great chance of making it individually. But collectively, the odds that none of the above will make it is:

(.8)(.8)(.7)(.9)(.9)(.8) = .29 = 29%.

So assuming the above player success estimates are correct, there is a 71% chance that at least one of the above guys would work out. Hence, depth does correct for the fact that not all prospects will work out. That is, after all, the whole point.
The chance for Vitters has to be about 1% at 3B. Bryant, based on his rating coming into next season, should have a 60% chance to be above average, but not necessarily at 3B.

Using the players you listed for 3B only and their current rank within the Cubs and /or top 100 status:

Olt- should remain a fringe top 100 and a solid defender, but right now is lost- 10%

Vitters- Does not have the glove, arm accuracy or footwork- 1%

Alcantara- Almost certainly a middle infielder, I like his overall chances and think he is top 100 bound- Just not at 3B- 10%

Bryant- fringe top 20, but could move up as high as top 10- 60% chance he makes it based on that ranking, but not sure yet if he can handle 3B- 40%

Candelario- Could play his way to top 100 status based on his age, performance and level of play. Again not sure he can handle the position. - 10%

Villanueva- Best defender of the bunch and have a solid year at AA at the age of 22 with 16 HR. IMO, the best chance outside of Bryant because he is already able to handle the defense. - 15%

.9*.99*.9*.6*.9*.85- 36% none of them work. Add in Lake and you have 36% chance none of them work
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Posted: 8/19/2013 12:04 PM

Re: core players 


Now lets look at the odds of the top 100 guys at any position (no pitchers)

I think they start next season with 5, possibly 6 in the top 100

1. Baez- Lock to be top 10 and could be top 5 - 63% success
2. Bryant- Don't see how he is not top 20       - 60% success
3. Almora- Will fall due to injury?                   - 35%
4. Soler- ditto                                               - 35%
5. Alcantara- could crack top 100                    - 30%
6. Olt - sinking but could still be 100ish           - 20%

Thats an 85% chance that either 1 or 2 makes it as above average (1.5 WAR) and about 74% chance that one of the 2 is a (2.5+ WAR). A 38% chance both make it as above average and a 16% chance both are (2.5+ WAR) players.
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