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Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins

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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:36 AM

Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs...scott-hairston/

77-79 wins is a step in the right direction. I know many advocate another 100 loss season to get a high draft choice but this years #2 pick should be the last time the team picks that high in a long time.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 10:08 AM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


77 to 79 Wins is watchable.  If that is the case is in not unrealistic to expect them go to 85 the following season.  Might be playoff contenders a year earlier than I thought.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 10:59 AM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


Quite generous in my opinion.  Not that I don't think they can reach 77 wins if things go right but I just expected really bad forecasts from prognosticators.

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Posted: 1/28/2013 2:37 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


Why generous, Katie? We've incontrovertibly improved. I've seen statistical projections reach 84 wins. To me that's high because I expect another year as deadline sellers, but you get the point. The deeper you analyze the moves made, the better they seem.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 2:51 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



cubbyfan25 wrote: Why generous, Katie? We've incontrovertibly improved. I've seen statistical projections reach 84 wins. To me that's high because I expect another year as deadline sellers, but you get the point. The deeper you analyze the moves made, the better they seem.

+1

To me, anywhere between 75-79 wins is realistic for this team. The SP depth should keep them in a lot of games.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 3:17 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



cubs2007 wrote: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs...scott-hairston/

77-79 wins is a step in the right direction. I know many advocate another 100 loss season to get a high draft choice but this years #2 pick should be the last time the team picks that high in a long time.
Just hoping that if they are out of contention, that they do the right things for the long-term value of the team. That means:

  • If they can't or don't want to extend Garza, then trade him for value
  • Trade some/most/all of the flippable assets they signed
  • Give Vitters and Jackson playing time in the 2nd half of the year (or other prospects whose play has demanded such time)
  • Once you are out of it, make no moves to win games at the expense of long-term value to the team. In other words, letting a guy play out his contract and then walk for nothing has no value...play prospects, etc. instead to help sort things out for the future.

Being mediocre for the sake of being mediocre, and costing yourself the chance of an impact arm or bat in the draft that you would get if you were truly terrible..that doesn't do anything for me. If they want to spend enough to actually contend..that is something else entirely. But watchable to me is just hurting your opportunities for no real gain.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 3:32 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


I definitely think they'll do the right thing and make the trades if not in serious contention.

But as the article says, the 75-79 range puts them in the " crazy luck" range which gives them a chance ( slim tho it may be) for playoffs if they play the 10 games over their talent that some teams have been able to do.
It makes things a lot more interesting for both players and fans but it won't change their approach.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 5:53 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



dancingwithgoats wrote: I definitely think they'll do the right thing and make the trades if not in serious contention.

But as the article says, the 75-79 range puts them in the " crazy luck" range which gives them a chance ( slim tho it may be) for playoffs if they play the 10 games over their talent that some teams have been able to do.
It makes things a lot more interesting for both players and fans but it won't change their approach.
Agreed. Can they catch lightning in a bottle and make a run at the 2nd wild card slot? Sure it's possible. But the overwhelming odds are saying they wont and the Cubs will be sellers at the trade deadline.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 7:54 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



cubbyfan25 wrote: Why generous, Katie? We've incontrovertibly improved. I've seen statistical projections reach 84 wins. To me that's high because I expect another year as deadline sellers, but you get the point. The deeper you analyze the moves made, the better they seem.

I should have said surprising, but like you said not so much if you look into the calculations that this article used based on WAR.  The writer cited a ZiPS article that used WAR across all positions and even when factoring in playing time by below replacement level subs a .500 season isn't out of the question.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 9:27 AM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



KatieCubFan wrote:
cubbyfan25 wrote: Why generous, Katie? We've incontrovertibly improved. I've seen statistical projections reach 84 wins. To me that's high because I expect another year as deadline sellers, but you get the point. The deeper you analyze the moves made, the better they seem.

I should have said surprising, but like you said not so much if you look into the calculations that this article used based on WAR.  The writer cited a ZiPS article that used WAR across all positions and even when factoring in playing time by below replacement level subs a .500 season isn't out of the question.
If the performs close to expectations and finishes close to the projections then with the right moves I can see the team making a run at the playoffs in 2014 and not having to wait until 2015.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 10:31 AM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



cubs2007 wrote:
KatieCubFan wrote:
cubbyfan25 wrote: Why generous, Katie? We've incontrovertibly improved. I've seen statistical projections reach 84 wins. To me that's high because I expect another year as deadline sellers, but you get the point. The deeper you analyze the moves made, the better they seem.

I should have said surprising, but like you said not so much if you look into the calculations that this article used based on WAR.  The writer cited a ZiPS article that used WAR across all positions and even when factoring in playing time by below replacement level subs a .500 season isn't out of the question.
If the performs close to expectations and finishes close to the projections then with the right moves I can see the team making a run at the playoffs in 2014 and not having to wait until 2015.
2013 W-L totals don't necessarily have much to do with 2014 W-L totals. The 2013 team may flip Garza and could potentially also flip Hairston, Baker, Villanueva, DeJesus, Soriano ...and maybe even more. So the team, good or bad in 2013, may not resemble the 2014 one. The success of the 2014 team will also be determined based on the success of current minor leaguers advancing (B. Jackson, Vitters, Vizcaino, others), and on any trades for assets that are close to MLB-ready.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 11:02 AM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



SportsGoblin wrote: 2013 W-L totals don't necessarily have much to do with 2014 W-L totals. The 2013 team may flip Garza and could potentially also flip Hairston, Baker, Villanueva, DeJesus, Soriano ...and maybe even more. So the team, good or bad in 2013, may not resemble the 2014 one. The success of the 2014 team will also be determined based on the success of current minor leaguers advancing (B. Jackson, Vitters, Vizcaino, others), and on any trades for assets that are close to MLB-ready.
+1

And FA signings. They will make a run at 2014 only if players like Castro, Shark, Rizzo continue to develop and the prospects starting producing at the MLB level.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 12:57 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I really believe 75 wins is this team's true ceiling (with 68-70 wins being much more probable). We simply don't have the power, speed, or offensive consistency to be breaking open many multi-run innings. Even in the best of scenarios, Stewart, Hairston, and Soriano (3 of our more likely power sources) are the definition of hot/cold hitters. Castro & Rizzo (assuming Rizzo continues at his 2012 levels) can't carry this offense alone, and our bench is going to be offensively weak, even with Hairston/Schierholtz on it. We've improved the club while lining up a ton of flippable assets... but we're not going to be dancing with .500 for most of the season. Still too many holes. Just my opinion...

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.”  ~Albert Einstein

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Posted: 1/29/2013 1:15 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



mindbodyspirit wrote: Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I really believe 75 wins is this team's true ceiling (with 68-70 wins being much more probable). We simply don't have the power, speed, or offensive consistency to be breaking open many multi-run innings. Even in the best of scenarios, Stewart, Hairston, and Soriano (3 of our more likely power sources) are the definition of hot/cold hitters. Castro & Rizzo (assuming Rizzo continues at his 2012 levels) can't carry this offense alone, and our bench is going to be offensively weak, even with Hairston/Schierholtz on it. We've improved the club while lining up a ton of flippable assets... but we're not going to be dancing with .500 for most of the season. Still too many holes. Just my opinion...
The 'perfect storm' scenario has this team much better than that. Consider the following:

  • Soriano can top an .800OPS (.821 last year)
  • A platoon of DeJesus and Sappelt (if they actually do this and if their splits from last year remain consistent) is > .800OPS
  • A platoon of Schierholtz/Hairston is > .800OPS (same caveats as above)
  • Rizzo could deliver a .800+ OPS (.805 last year)
  • Castro could deliver a .775+ OPS (.773 in 2011)
  • Castillo could deliver a .750+ OPS (.753 last year).

That's very respectable hitting from 6 of the 8 spots, with Barney and Valbuena not setting the world on fire but tending to get hits when needed. Stewart 'might' be an upgrade for Valbuena here.

Now, I seriously doubt all of that goes according to plan, but if it did, there's plenty of run-potential there.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 2:57 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



SportsGoblin wrote:
mindbodyspirit wrote: Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I really believe 75 wins is this team's true ceiling (with 68-70 wins being much more probable). We simply don't have the power, speed, or offensive consistency to be breaking open many multi-run innings. Even in the best of scenarios, Stewart, Hairston, and Soriano (3 of our more likely power sources) are the definition of hot/cold hitters. Castro & Rizzo (assuming Rizzo continues at his 2012 levels) can't carry this offense alone, and our bench is going to be offensively weak, even with Hairston/Schierholtz on it. We've improved the club while lining up a ton of flippable assets... but we're not going to be dancing with .500 for most of the season. Still too many holes. Just my opinion...
The 'perfect storm' scenario has this team much better than that. Consider the following:

  • Soriano can top an .800OPS (.821 last year)
  • A platoon of DeJesus and Sappelt (if they actually do this and if their splits from last year remain consistent) is > .800OPS
  • A platoon of Schierholtz/Hairston is > .800OPS (same caveats as above)
  • Rizzo could deliver a .800+ OPS (.805 last year)
  • Castro could deliver a .775+ OPS (.773 in 2011)
  • Castillo could deliver a .750+ OPS (.753 last year).

That's very respectable hitting from 6 of the 8 spots, with Barney and Valbuena not setting the world on fire but tending to get hits when needed. Stewart 'might' be an upgrade for Valbuena here.

Now, I seriously doubt all of that goes according to plan, but if it did, there's plenty of run-potential there.
2 things that must happen for the offense to have a chance. DD must be limited to about 50 PA against LH pitching and DB can't bat 2nd. In 500 PA's batting 7th or 8th, DB has an OPS of more than .750 (.604 batting 2nd).
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Posted: 1/29/2013 5:42 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


Houston isn't on the schedule this year, correct?  I think that hurts the Cubs, but hopefully 70-73 wins is still possible, which makes them mostly watchable.
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Posted: 1/29/2013 9:37 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



absolutebadger wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote:
mindbodyspirit wrote: Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I really believe 75 wins is this team's true ceiling (with 68-70 wins being much more probable). We simply don't have the power, speed, or offensive consistency to be breaking open many multi-run innings. Even in the best of scenarios, Stewart, Hairston, and Soriano (3 of our more likely power sources) are the definition of hot/cold hitters. Castro & Rizzo (assuming Rizzo continues at his 2012 levels) can't carry this offense alone, and our bench is going to be offensively weak, even with Hairston/Schierholtz on it. We've improved the club while lining up a ton of flippable assets... but we're not going to be dancing with .500 for most of the season. Still too many holes. Just my opinion...
The 'perfect storm' scenario has this team much better than that. Consider the following:

  • Soriano can top an .800OPS (.821 last year)
  • A platoon of DeJesus and Sappelt (if they actually do this and if their splits from last year remain consistent) is > .800OPS
  • A platoon of Schierholtz/Hairston is > .800OPS (same caveats as above)
  • Rizzo could deliver a .800+ OPS (.805 last year)
  • Castro could deliver a .775+ OPS (.773 in 2011)
  • Castillo could deliver a .750+ OPS (.753 last year).

That's very respectable hitting from 6 of the 8 spots, with Barney and Valbuena not setting the world on fire but tending to get hits when needed. Stewart 'might' be an upgrade for Valbuena here.

Now, I seriously doubt all of that goes according to plan, but if it did, there's plenty of run-potential there.
2 things that must happen for the offense to have a chance. DD must be limited to about 50 PA against LH pitching and DB can't bat 2nd. In 500 PA's batting 7th or 8th, DB has an OPS of more than .750 (.604 batting 2nd).
They 'may' have Barney bat 7th or 8th. I don't think they will platoon DeJesus and limit his ABs against Lefties, but I agree by the numbers that they really really should.
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Posted: 1/30/2013 12:01 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



SportsGoblin wrote: They 'may' have Barney bat 7th or 8th. I don't think they will platoon DeJesus and limit his ABs against Lefties, but I agree by the numbers that they really really should.

+1

The 2nd slot though is going to be interesting to see who they fill it with. Castro used to be the obvious choice but with the plan is for him to become a middle of the order hitter therefore he should be kept in the 5th slot with Rizzo/Soriano ahead of him.
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Posted: 1/30/2013 12:08 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 



PorkChopExpress12 wrote:
SportsGoblin wrote: They 'may' have Barney bat 7th or 8th. I don't think they will platoon DeJesus and limit his ABs against Lefties, but I agree by the numbers that they really really should.

+1

The 2nd slot though is going to be interesting to see who they fill it with. Castro used to be the obvious choice but with the plan is for him to become a middle of the order hitter therefore he should be kept in the 5th slot with Rizzo/Soriano ahead of him.
Against RH pitching they will have 4 lefties in the lineup. I would have to go with-

DD
Castro
Rizzo
Soriano
Stewart
Castillo
Shierholtz (sp)
Barney
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Posted: 1/30/2013 4:07 PM

Re: Fangraphs projects 77-79 wins 


From a Fangraphs chat:


Which lower echelon team did the most to improve themselves this offseason?

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays. Then the Cubs.

Speaking of the Cubs, it seems Theo and Jed make a very nice team in the front office. How long before you see them being serious contenders?

Dave Cameron: They're doing it right. Probably 2014, though.
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