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Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely

  • RAMBLE
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Posted: 1/8/2013 5:54 PM

Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


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Posted: 1/8/2013 7:56 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


Players should only be evaluated on their first 120 ABs.

Signed,
Kevin Maas' HOF Induction Ceremony
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  • RAMBLE
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Posted: 1/8/2013 8:06 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


What gets me is Brett is no HR king. If he were Dave Kingman or Babe Ruth or Mark McGwire, I'd understand.
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Posted: 1/8/2013 8:17 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


He has an uphill battle due to all the adjustments he has to make to his swing, but the Cubs can be patient with him.  Hopefully he'll keep his distance from Rob Deer. Anyone know if he's playing winter ball?
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Posted: 1/8/2013 8:44 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



RAMBLE wrote: What gets me is Brett is no HR king. If he were Dave Kingman or Babe Ruth or Mark McGwire, I'd understand.

Exactly, 3 of the 4 on that list were extra tall, HR or bust bashers. The other added value on the defensive side, as a catcher.

A testament to the Hendry regimes abysmal player development program. Jackson had this problem throughout his college career. It never got the attention it warranted early in his minor league career and now the season in which he turns 25, any production or trade value he brings needs to be looked upon as a bonus. I've got zero expectations with this guy.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 8:35 AM

RE: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


This is why I don't like the hype about any prospect that hasn't produced in the minor leagues or has a glaring stat that doesn't translate to the MLB team. Even with the top prospects on the list today, I wouldn't include anyone unless they had 2 seasons of MILB under their belt at between the A-AAA levels. Jackson has always been the proverbial 5 tool player hype....looking at the link above proves if you strike out too much, your career is a bench role player at best.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 9:24 AM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



HolyMackeral wrote:
Exactly, 3 of the 4 on that list were extra tall, HR or bust bashers. The other added value on the defensive side, as a catcher.

A testament to the Hendry regimes abysmal player development program. Jackson had this problem throughout his college career. It never got the attention it warranted early in his minor league career and now the season in which he turns 25, any production or trade value he brings needs to be looked upon as a bonus. I've got zero expectations with this guy.
Was the problem player development or player selection ? As you point out Jackson was a high K rate in college and part of the reason he fell to the end of the first round. His minor league career has played out as many of the experts have predicted. It looks like he will end up being a 4th OF type player.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 9:40 AM

RE: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



msqboxer2011 wrote: This is why I don't like the hype about any prospect that hasn't produced in the minor leagues or has a glaring stat that doesn't translate to the MLB team. Even with the top prospects on the list today, I wouldn't include anyone unless they had 2 seasons of MILB under their belt at between the A-AAA levels. Jackson has always been the proverbial 5 tool player hype....looking at the link above proves if you strike out too much, your career is a bench role player at best.
Jackson had very good years in 2010 and 2011 with a combined OPS of .880 playing A/AA. His ultra high K rate didn't become a problem until he hit AAA. So yes, he was a 5 tool player with a rare combo of speed, power, high on base, and great defense. He is still all of those things with an almost unheard of K rate. His hype was built on his #'s of 2010-2011 which made him not only a top prospect for the Cubs, but also made him one of the top OF prospects in the game.
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  • RAMBLE
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Posted: 1/9/2013 11:38 AM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


I just don't think a doubles hitter, striking out anywhere near that, is of value.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 1:59 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



RAMBLE wrote: I just don't think a doubles hitter, striking out anywhere near that, is of value.
As a 22 year old he hit 20 homers with a .380 OBP and a .490 slugging between AA and AAA. How is that a doubles hitter.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 2:26 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



absolutebadger wrote:
RAMBLE wrote: I just don't think a doubles hitter, striking out anywhere near that, is of value.
As a 22 year old he hit 20 homers with a .380 OBP and a .490 slugging between AA and AAA. How is that a doubles hitter.
Badger - Are you predicting that Jackson will be a starter for the Cubs or a bench player or become a 4A player ?
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Posted: 1/9/2013 3:12 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



cubs2007 wrote:
absolutebadger wrote:
RAMBLE wrote: I just don't think a doubles hitter, striking out anywhere near that, is of value.
As a 22 year old he hit 20 homers with a .380 OBP and a .490 slugging between AA and AAA. How is that a doubles hitter.
Badger - Are you predicting that Jackson will be a starter for the Cubs or a bench player or become a 4A player ?
I'm the one that sounded the alarm last season when his K rate went through the roof. I'm also the one that was very skeptical that he magically corrected this problem in one month during the off season. Jackson has all the tools to be a star at the MLB level, if (huge if) he can get his K rate down below 25% of AB's. While I have been critical of his K rate over the last year, to call him a doubles hitter isn't fair, or is it fair to question his top prospect status after his 21 and 22 year old seasons.

Jackson had a very bad 2012. I didn't like the move to call up a player that was struggling so badly at the AAA level. There were reports (grain of salt) that the Cubs wanted to show him what needed fixing by subjecting him to MLB pitching. If so, maybe his isn't coachable? His strikeout rate in AAA last season was cause for alarm, not cause for a promotion. There are very few players in the minors that can combine speed, defense, OBP and power like Jackson. He was, before last season, an elite prospect. Today he is a solid prospect with a major swing and miss flaw. Very few players overcome this flaw, but if he can he still has a great chance to be a ++ player in center.

To answer your question. Right now his a AAA player with a serious flaw. If the flaw isn't corrected, I see him as a bench player. A much better Campana- one with power and an OF arm. He can't play everyday with a 40%+ K rate. In the end I think he improves but still will push the K leaderboard if given the opportunity and I think he will be given the chance to start later this year or next season. With all the prospects behind him in the OF his chance won't last long if he can't cut the K rate.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 5:53 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



cubs2007 wrote:
HolyMackeral wrote:
Exactly, 3 of the 4 on that list were extra tall, HR or bust bashers. The other added value on the defensive side, as a catcher.

A testament to the Hendry regimes abysmal player development program. Jackson had this problem throughout his college career. It never got the attention it warranted early in his minor league career and now the season in which he turns 25, any production or trade value he brings needs to be looked upon as a bonus. I've got zero expectations with this guy.
Was the problem player development or player selection ? As you point out Jackson was a high K rate in college and part of the reason he fell to the end of the first round. His minor league career has played out as many of the experts have predicted. It looks like he will end up being a 4th OF type player.
Does it have to be one or the other?

Clearly, he stood a much better chance of succeeding had the Cubs not been running a country club under Onieri Flieta, in which aggressiveness at the plate was considered a positive regardless of circumstance and being taught to work counts,  be selective, look to get a hitter's pitch were not even an after-thought. The same over-sights apply to hitter's mechanics.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 6:08 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


His elite command of the strike zone, plus power, and plus defense (especially if moved to left field when Almora is ready) make him deserving of absolute maximum effort by the developmental coaching staff to see if we can correct, or probably more realistically, mitigate his problems.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 9:35 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


Let's see how March-June play out for BJ before getting in a huff about whether or not he's a bust. Clearly he's a gifted athlete (yes, Jim Hendry's 'toolsy' type). If he can be more disciplined at the plate without losing his aggressiveness, he could well wind up starting for us (or many other MLB clubs). If BJ continues to whiff at Dunn/Kingman/Deer levels, he will likely top out as a 4-5 OF and PH like the last portion of Matt Stairs' career (only with substantially better defense and speed). 

I try to be optimistic... and I'd really like to see the kid put it together. An OF of Jackson (LF), Almora (CF), and Soler (RF) would be defensively outstanding (all three have + throwing arms and all three can cover ground) and would certainly be good for .OBP, power, and speed. Add Szczur to the mix (outstanding speed, range, and athleticism) and you've got a very strong young OF for the next decade (if the brass can afford to keep it intact post-arb.). 

I'm not sold that Campana or Jackson can't take steps in the right direction and contribute... both have their limitations, but what they bring to the table is special. Until Billy Hamilton gets to MLB, for example, Campana may well have the fastest pair of legs in MLB... I'd think that wouldn't be dismissed out-of-hand as easily as so many here seem to do. With both BJ and TC, let's see... let them get their AB's at AAA and see if they've got what it takes to get to the next level and contribute.

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.”  ~Albert Einstein

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Posted: 1/9/2013 10:59 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


More disciplined at the plate? He's already one of the most selective hitters in baseball. Bjax chased fewer pitches out of the zone than Pujols, Teixeira, Fielder, Headley, etc. In fact, Jackson's discipline was better than all but like 25 full-time players in the major leagues.
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Posted: 1/9/2013 11:06 PM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


Interestingly, Jackson's swings missed less often than Josh Hamilton's and Mark Trumbo's, amongst others. So clearly he can still be successful. I think the key is better count management. His extraordinary patience actually may be detrimental if he's watching hittable pitches go by instead of swinging early or in neutral counts.

Last edited 1/9/2013 11:07 PM by cubbyfan25

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Posted: 1/10/2013 9:28 AM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



cubbyfan25 wrote: More disciplined at the plate? He's already one of the most selective hitters in baseball. Bjax chased fewer pitches out of the zone than Pujols, Teixeira, Fielder, Headley, etc. In fact, Jackson's discipline was better than all but like 25 full-time players in the major leagues.
Hmmmm....didn't know that...well where would you want a selective hitter in your line up? How about the #2 hole if you have a base stealing threat for a lead off hitter. In addition, one way to get a selective hitter to cut down on strikeouts is forcing him to have to move runners over when the counts not in his favor. Is this a possibility for Jackson??

Last edited 1/10/2013 9:29 AM by msqboxer2011

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Posted: 1/10/2013 9:52 AM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 



cubbyfan25 wrote: More disciplined at the plate? He's already one of the most selective hitters in baseball. Bjax chased fewer pitches out of the zone than Pujols, Teixeira, Fielder, Headley, etc. In fact, Jackson's discipline was better than all but like 25 full-time players in the major leagues.
But he also passed on pitches IN the zone too, right? I guess what I am trying to determine is, is his high K rate because he swung and missed too much or because he struck out with his bat on his shoulder? Or both? Because the shorter swing may fix the swing-and-miss (probably at the expense of power, but we'll see), but it cannot fix the refusal to swing.
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Posted: 1/10/2013 10:28 AM

Re: Brett Jackson-----Bust Likely 


I read the article and is does not jump to the conclusion that he will be a bust.  They simply highlight the biggest concern and brought up realistic examples of success and failure.


Baez has "top-shelf bat speed," according to one National League scout who recently saw him play. "I haven't seen that type of bat speed this year outside of the big leagues. It's pure, unadulterated, just violent bat-speed."

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