To start off, I have to say thank you for 2012.  It could have been just another miserable season, but you made it memorable.

Starting pitching:  What a difference a year makes

We quickly went from an organization with huge question marks to having 4 quality starters.

Jason Hammel, showed in his two playoff starts he can pitch in the AL.

Wei Yin Chen, he had his moments but showed himself capable.

Miguel Gonzalez, probably our best pitcher down the stretch.

Chris Tillman, he showed more than just flashes coming from AAA.

Free Agents:

Joe Saunders, they would probably want him back but his playoff performances probably secured a 2-3 year deal and over what they want to pay

Nate McClouth, I see a deal being made here.  I like him more as a back-up platoon

Jim Thome, I don't see him coming back under any circumstances

Contract buyouts:
Mark Reynolds.  I just do not see the Orioles paying him 11 million when they can just pay 500k.  And if they want him to stay, I can see offering 5 million plus incentives.  50-50 he comes back if buyout occurs.


Biggest needs:
RH hitting.  It could come at 2nd, LF, DH, 1B but they have got to find some people that can improve upon their run scoring performances vs LHP.  #2 hitter, it cannot and must not be Hardy again.

Targets:
Marco Scutaro 2B.  He can handle the bat and do the little things.  Despite the playoffs, Andino did not have a good enough year to keep going with him.  Roberts simply cannot be relied on.

Angel Pagan.  He would fill LF and either #1 or #2 hole while providing good offense vs LHP.  He might be my #1 target. 

Torii Hunter, if he wants to platoon in LF and DH, I'd be happy to have him

I really want McLouth and Reynolds back, We have a chance next year of having a sensational defense, Including an All Gold Glove Outfield with a Infield just as Good.
I think Reynolds performance at First is Well worthy of a Gold Glove consideration and i believe Hardy will win his First.
Were all aware of how good Machado has bin and If Roberts returns, we could have possibly the best Defense in Baseball.


During the Series They were Comparing Reynold's Range at first to Albert Pujols. First basemen like that are hard to come by.

I'd like to see the Orioles pick up Reynolds' option. He's a great first baseman and definitely has another couple 30+ HR campaigns left in his tank. Plus the guys supposedly love him and he's a great teammate. Maybe they can resign and restructure for a 3 year deal at like $20m or so.

We're also going to be getting Reimold back, I assume. This is great news because he's another very good platoon option that Buck will be able to masterfully work in and out of the lineup.

I'd like to see a Reimold/Davis/McLouth/Reynolds mix and match platoon. That's a good mix of power and game-breaking ability among two righties and two lefties who can man 1B, LF, and DH. The other positions -- C, 3B, SS, CF, and RF -- are all occupied.

Which leaves the biggest question mark: what will happen with 2B?

Andino, Flaherty, and Roberts make up the group of potential starters. If you're asking my opinion, I'd tell you Roberts is done and it's between Flaherty and Andino. And, frankly, I'd be 100% fine with a platoon between those two. They're both fully capable fielders and each perform well against the traditional RH/LH LH/RH splits.

Of course, there also is the option to trade for or sign a full-time starter. RisingOs mentioned Marco Scutaro. I think that's a lateral, if not backwards, move. He's 37 and doesn't really offer anything that attracts me. If given the choice between him and a platoon of Flaherty/Andino, I choose the latter.

Potential options to sign are slim. Assuming Toronto doesn't resign him, they could look at Kelly Johnson for a year or two and hope he'd be able to offer something similar to his 2010 campaign (154 games, 26 HR, .865 OPS, .988 fielding percentage).

They could also replace Andino with Jeff Keppinger and platoon him instead of Andino with Flaherty. Assuming Flaherty is starting against right handers, Keppinger and his career .333 BA and .864 OPS vs lefties would be a welcome addition.

Or they could trade for a player. Colorado is chock full of 2B. I'd be interested in any one of either Eric Young, Jr., Josh Rutledge, or Chris Nelson. They're all good young players who could be more impactful than anyone the Orioles currently are offering at 2B or options on the FA market.

Lastly, they obviously have minor leaguers, too. Schoop and Delmonico, among others, are up and coming. I don't think they'll be relevant in 2013 but surely in 2014 and definitely 2015.

So there will be a lot of movement at 2B this offseason in my estimation. Though Flaherty and Andino would surely be a solid platoon, it's possible to upgrade and help the team further.

Other than 2B and, if Buck desires, I guess the bench, every other position looks to be filled for the next couple years.

As for starting pitching, I agree, the four man group of Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman are solid and good enough to compete going forward. The average age of that group is 27 and all have proven to be able to step up to big game moments when they're needed most.

There are plenty of in-house options for the 5th spot, too. Like you said, there's Saunders, who is a veteran and nice lefty to add to the group. There is also Steve Johnson, another guy who has proven that he can get it done when he's needed. Britton is obviously a guy we can't forget as he was viewed as our top pitching prospect as of two years ago.

As for the group of Matusz, Hunter, and Arrieta, guys who were converted to relievers, I think Arrieta is asked to go back to try starting one more time. Matusz and Hunter looked dominant in their new roles and should not, under any circumstances, look at themselves as starters ever again.

Potential free agents are deep and not even worth me speculating on who they would get if we're talking about finding a 5th starter. There are so many bottom-of-rotation guys out there it's overwhelming. Just to name 5, there's Liriano, Lohse, Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, Carlos Villanueva. There are many, many more.

However, if the Orioles we looking to add a top of the rotation starter (which I truly don't think they will look to do), they could take a peek at some guys who have options possibly not being picked up who would fit that bill: Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Scott Baker differ in potential price and skill level but all are big, powerful right handers who can go 200 innings, strike out a bunch of guys, and win 15+ games.

I wouldn't want to touch Greinke. He's just not appealing to me. Maybe in fantasy baseball but in real life I think he can't handle the pressure.

As for the bullpen, I think Johnson, O'Day, Matusz, Hunter, Patton, and Strop are as good as it gets. Ayala should be let to walk. The long man will be one of Arrieta, Britton, or Steve Johnson. Otherwise not much needs to be said about or done with this group. The 'pen is clearly a huge strength for the Orioles and that feels great.

So when you read all this and take a step back to look at the big picture, it's clear that the O's are set for prolonged success. After 2013, they won't be burdened with bad contracts, too, so the financial strain on the club will be virtually nonexistent. In other words, all the money they have spent on players will be used on players actually playing and producing. They're in great shape to have lots of flexibility for re-signing players and adding new ones.

They've also got wild-cards like, oh, I don't know.....Dylan Bundy. What will be the story with him in 2013? Will he be the 5th starter? Will he be in the bullpen to begin the year? Will he start in Bowie and join the club come May or June? Who knows, but it's great knowing that there is simply no rush for him to get to Baltimore. He can develop at just the right pace and enter when it makes sense, not through a move of desperation.

Other prospects exist, too, like Gausman, Hoes, Avery, and more. Which brings me to my final thought -- there is a lot of young major league talent on this club, meaning there is a lot of trade bait. The Orioles are primed to make a big trade, possibly at the winter meetings. Could they trade for an Ace? Could they somehow find a MVP-caliber middle-of-the-order bat through this method? Could they net even more prospects? Who knows, but it's true that there is potential to make a trade deal of great magnitude before this season starts.

I'm really excited to see what happens in the future. The best part about all this is that we KNOW this team can win -- they've proven it on the field for once! No more speculating or ignoring the elephant in the room (we always seem to be looking better but just can never win). The Orioles are winners right now. All they've got to do is keep on getting better, not settling for where they are now, and making smart, patient decisions.

GO O'S!!

By the way, here's my ridiculously early 25-man roster prediction:

SP: Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Bundy
RP: Johnson, O'Day, Matusz, Hunter, Patton, Strop, Arrieta
Catcher: Wieters, Teagarden
Infield: Hardy, Machado, Reynolds, Andino, Flaherty, Betemit
Outfield: McLouth, Jones, Markakis
DH/OF: Davis, Reimold

I know, this is boring. The only "out-on-a-limb" guy is Bundy and, even so, him making the opening day roster might not be as unlikely as it may seem. I just don't want to speculate on new players. Would I like to see new players? I mean, maybe, not really....

I might be romanticizing this team a bit since they've treated us so well in 2012. They really do need to continue to upgrade. It's not like the batting order is bad; hell, you could toss the following out and get 20+ HR from every single guy:

McLouth
Markakis
Jones
Davis
Wieters
Reynolds
Hardy
Flaherty
Machado

But, still, even though this is a very solid lineup, it could be better. There could be more production from 1B or DH. We'll see how things play out....

I think this teams roster is about 85% there already. They are poised to make a serious run with perhaps some minor tweaking but thats about it. I still like their basic lineup...despite the fact they pretty much all stunk during the playoffs. I can't see that happening two years in a row...but I suppose it could (look at Yanks-Twins of a couple seasons ago...Twins couldn't win if their life depended on it)

I think 2B is Flaherty's for the taking - Reynolds is pretty much the best option for 1B unless they can swing a trade for a 1B

I like the lineup, I waited all year for Buck to break down and drop Hardy out of the 2 spot, His Obp just doesn't do it justice.

ripken4prez wrote: By the way, here's my ridiculously early 25-man roster prediction:

SP: Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Bundy
RP: Johnson, O'Day, Matusz, Hunter, Patton, Strop, Arrieta
Catcher: Wieters, Teagarden
Infield: Hardy, Machado, Reynolds, Andino, Flaherty, Betemit
Outfield: McLouth, Jones, Markakis
DH/OF: Davis, Reimold

I know, this is boring. The only "out-on-a-limb" guy is Bundy and, even so, him making the opening day roster might not be as unlikely as it may seem. I just don't want to speculate on new players. Would I like to see new players? I mean, maybe, not really....

I might be romanticizing this team a bit since they've treated us so well in 2012. They really do need to continue to upgrade. It's not like the batting order is bad; hell, you could toss the following out and get 20+ HR from every single guy:

McLouth
Markakis
Jones
Davis
Wieters
Reynolds
Hardy
Flaherty
Machado

But, still, even though this is a very solid lineup, it could be better. There could be more production from 1B or DH. We'll see how things play out....

The thing that frustrates me about the team, is that there aren't any huge holes. Even our worst position, second base, is okay. Our best position, center field, is above average. We're missing a consistent, big bat. That isn't to say we should be throwing everything at Hamilton, because of all the risk he brings.

Scutaro or Keppinger to play second base. Dino as the utility infielder. Flaherty starts in Norfolk.

Tough to decide who to let walk, but I think it'd be a mistake to go into next season with the same exact roster.

I'd like to keep Saunders if it's reasonable

He reminds me of Hammel in that we got here and our coaches made an adjustment and changed him

Unless somebody awesome is out there - I'd rather sit tight and save the money to retain our guys

The bullpen is the biggest concern for me. The pen was lights out all season this year. But that hardly ever happens 2 years in a row.

Relievers are unstable commodities by nature. Getting a bullpen like ours this year is half great scouting and half dumb luck. A lot of those guys that were awesome this year won't be next year.

The hardest thing for a GM to do is figure out which guys those will be and what free agents to replace them with.

The problem with listing players overall stats is that the Orioles biggest issue on offense was scoring runs vs LHP. If the players listed don't address that, their value is much less. And I looked at those infield players, there are too many sub 240 hitters. Scutaro's value comes in his hitting both left and right, great OBP and veteran leadership, he's not going to make mistakes.

Part of our need might be addressed by a full year of a productive healthy Markakis but who knows if Showalter will keep him at the top. And we will still lack a 1-2 hitter if he does. There is some real value in the outfield free agents and if McClouth has to take a backseat to that, then so be it.

No real reason to re-sign Saunders. The Orioles have enough depth and perhaps Bundy and Gausman waiting to tear through AA.

And I agree, you have to turn some things over. Andino, Teagarden, Reynolds, Flaherty, Betemit for me are all targets. I know people will say we will miss the 30 HRs but Reynold's does not do enough all around to make 11 million. When you hit 220 at best, you leave a lot of runs on the bases even though his defense was very good. I think we need a little more out of back-up catcher to give Wieters some more time off. Andino should be gone, there is nothing special about him. Flaherty just did not show me enough to say he is a keeper. I would also try to move Betemit because there are not enough at-bats for both he and Davis.

Although still dealing with our frustration from the ALDS at this time, I guess we should get this thread going, so perhaps one of the moderators can pin the topic so the board has one logical discussion point for what happens from now through the start of Spring Training. Who comes back, who gets their walking papers, and who is the Front Office acquiring through trades or free agency?

If we have a chance at getting Shields in FA, THAT is my target.  This would likely mean saying so long to Saunders.  But if Shields can't be gotten, I like Saunders.  He's the best vet we've had in the staff in a long while, and he's good for the kids with that experience.

I like the idea of Scuturo,  but I have a feeling Brian Roberts' deal is going to play into any moves we make in FA.  We're still on the hook for that and since I don't see him playing again, I wouldn't be shocked if he made the effort or if the O's gave him a chance, but I just don't think it lasts.  He's not durable.  That's dead money that will impact spending.

I do think that it will be Flahrety over Andino.  I like Andino, but I think there's more upside with Flahrety.

There will likely be platoons in both RF and LF if we make no moves there.  But I think that bolster the OF with a player that can both DH and play the field.  I don't think we go in the strictly DH direction.  Rumor is Granderson is finished in NY.  I love that guy.  But he's another lefty.  I don't know that it really matters if he can give us 35HR and 90 RBI, tho. 

Locking up Buck for life should be a main priority too!

This offseason should be fun... Hopefully we avoid aging veterans, we can trade for them at the end as we demonstrated with Thome.

ave4yobwoc wrote: Tough to decide who to let walk, but I think it'd be a mistake to go into next season with the same exact roster.

Exactly my thinking. When I made my hypothetical roster I was trying hard to decide on who should/would walk. It ain't easy. I think a trade must go down. There are just too many Corner-OF/IF slash DH guys on this team.

Uh, RF will not be a platoon, as I mistakenly typed...  McLouth has a good chance of being an everyday player at LF tho, too.  If he continues to get on base, steal and have a pop to his bat, he's gonna play a lot probably near the top of the order.  He plays that wall out there very well too.

I do think Reynolds has earned a contract.  He's been money in the field and if he can be more consistent at the plate he's value added over this year.

The guy I'm wondering about is Davis.  Right now, I think he's the DH, but he's stated he enjoys being in the field.  I don't see how we accommodate that or if its really a concern.

I like a veteran presence at P.  I really like Saunders, but Shields is my guy.  One of them, for me, is essential.

Well Dr. Johnny, it looks like a trade will likely be going down at some point. I remember Buck saying he doesn't like having a full-time DH, sort of like how Joe Maddon does things down in Tampa. Perhaps it's Davis who is trade bait? He would be a reasonable option for a team like Houston; they're moving to the AL and need as much young major league talent as they can get.

It probably won't happen but I'd look at a Davis for Altuve swap with definite intrigue.

I'm not sure if Davis will be going anywhere, tho.  I think they were glad to get him and he's got 2 or 3 years left on a not very large contract if I recall correctly.  But I agree that I think this team will look very similar to what it is now, but there will be change...  Too soon to tell, probably.

I'm not talking hometown discount, necessarily, but I don't think Saunders will be hurrying to get on the money train out of town if we show interest.  What complicates his status, IMO, is our farm guys.  I don't think we offer him a 4-5 years deal, because there are two guys on the farm and a number a middle relief guys right now who could compete for starting roles.  It's nice to be in a situation like this for a change.  But if he gets a 4-5yr offer from another team, and all we're offering is 2 with an option for 3, to bridge the farm gap, he'd likely leave.  He'd be crazy not to, as much as we all love what he did for us or how much he enjoyed the ride here...

BTW, I think there will be players, that after this year, will be almost begging to hang around.  That too is a good situation.