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New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [W-PPD-W]

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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:44 AM

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [W-PPD-W] 


Last edited 8/13/2014 9:55 PM by stephenjames1979

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Posted: 8/11/2014 10:38 AM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


The yankees are pulling pitchers out of their @sses

and the line up seems to change every series
...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 8/11/2014 11:17 AM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


Can't let the Yankees get even a sniff of this series. 2 of 3 is a must to keep them off our backs and keep our own momentum going. Cleveland slowed them a little. We need to slow them a LOT!
I'm never comfortable playing them
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Posted: 8/11/2014 11:40 AM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


McCann is a good catcher and is working with these pitches well. Reason they are hanging around.
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Posted: 8/11/2014 1:17 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 



insagt1 wrote: Can't let the Yankees get even a sniff of this series. 2 of 3 is a must to keep them off our backs and keep our own momentum going. Cleveland slowed them a little. We need to slow them a LOT!
I'm never comfortable playing them

2 of 3 puts them 7 games back on Thursday morning.

Sweeping them, and I swear I'll never ask for anything ever again if they do, puts them 9 back on Thursday morning, right before the Orioles start a 26 game stretch against teams they damned well better win 18-19 of.

If the Yankees are 9 games back on August 14th....they are done in terms of the division. There is just no way. Not with their patchwork rotation and line up that has been flat for a month and has been getting worse.

Time to treat the Yankees like they are the Cobra Kai Dojo and end this nonsense..



For POPPA! We won't stop!

Last edited 8/11/2014 1:23 PM by Skipjacks

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Posted: 8/11/2014 1:58 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


I never trust games against the Yankees. What 'should' happen and what often 'does' happen gives me heartburn every time. Our starters 'should' be able to beat theirs (although Greene has done well lately) but I will be content with 2 of 3.
2 of 3 in any series going forward will get us to the playoffs.

Interesting that Britton has had 3 bad 9th innings this season. Gave up 3 runs in each case.
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Posted: 8/11/2014 2:06 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


O's are at home. They need to win 2 out of 3. Of course its not the end of the world if they win one or heaven forbid get swept but they must keep the Yankees from sniffing a shot at the division. The problem is that if we don't win the division then we are in a total crap shoot to even make the wild card let alone the goofy one game playoff crap.
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Posted: 8/11/2014 2:37 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 



insagt1 wrote: I never trust games against the Yankees. What 'should' happen and what often 'does' happen gives me heartburn every time. Our starters 'should' be able to beat theirs (although Greene has done well lately) but I will be content with 2 of 3.
2 of 3 in any series going forward will get us to the playoffs.

Interesting that Britton has had 3 bad 9th innings this season. Gave up 3 runs in each case.

If they win 2 of 3 in every series the rest of the way they will win this division by 11-14 games. It won't even be close.

And I'm with you. Something always goes stupid in a Yankee game. These games give me the gout.


For POPPA! We won't stop!
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Posted: 8/11/2014 3:34 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


Including this series we play 29 AL East games of the final 45 games remaining.  We need to win 25 games to get to 92, as I expect that will be the minimum required to win the division, and possibly to make the playoffs.  That mean playing .556 baseball down the stretch.

Remaining AL East games:

New York: 10 games
Toronto: 6 games
Tampa Bay: 7 games
Boston: 6 games

So the Yankees are the team that we need to really lay the wood to down the stretch.  13 of the final 16 games are against Toronto/New York.  With 45 games to go

Did my math wrong the first time on the percentage.

Last edited 8/11/2014 3:59 PM by PSNL05

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Posted: 8/11/2014 3:53 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 



PSNL05 wrote:

Including this series we play 29 AL East games of the final 45 games remaining.  We need to win 25 games to get to 92, as I expect that will be the minimum required to win the division, and possibly to make the playoffs.  That mean playing .625 baseball down the stretch.

Remaining AL East games:

New York: 10 games
Toronto: 6 games
Tampa Bay: 7 games
Boston: 6 games

So the Yankees are the team that we need to really lay the wood to down the stretch.  13 of the final 16 games are against Toronto/New York.  With 45 games to go


That's a .556 winning percentage the rest of the way. I think they can manage that. They can absolutely go into the tank too and have a 10 game losing stretch.  I'm not saying this I a lock. But there is no excuse to not win at at least a .556 clip the rest of the way.

That being said I don't think it will take 92 wins for the Orioles to win this division. (I think they will reach 92 wins. But I don't think they will need 92 wins)

Let's make the numbers simpler.

Lets say they do win 25 of 45 to finish the season. First off I'm calling that a bare minimum because a .556 clip over the final 6 weeks is not going to have me feeling warm and fuzzy heading into the playoffs. That's below their season average of .573, which includes a few weeks where they were treading water early.

But if they win 25 that gives them 92 wins.

For the Yankees to reach 92 wins they have to win 31 more games. They also have 45 remaining so that means they have to win at a .689 pace for the remaining of the regular season. They are .521 for the season so far. That means they are not going to win 92 games.

Doesn't mean they can't win the division because the Orioles could fall apart and finish with 87 wins after a disastrous September or something. But the Yankees aren't going to win 92 games.

The Blue Jays are in slightly better shape to reach 92 wins, but not by much. They need 29 wins to reach that mark, but have played 2 more games already. So to get to 92 they need to finish with a .674 winning percentage. So far they are .529 for the season. That's a tall order.

Again, the Orioles can implode and lose the division after winning 85 games when its' all said and done. Worse thing have happened. (See the 2005 season for examples) But the two teams chasing them aren't going to win 92 games. So the Orioles probably don't have to win 92 to make it.

However, they barely need to play over .500 the rest of the way to reach that 92 level that is out of reach for the Yankees and Blue Jays.

I'm feeling pretty good. The Yankees and Blue Jays can't win this on their own. The Orioles have to blow it to lose the division, and I mean really blow it with style. I don't mean like they have a bad week where they win 2 of 7. I mean they really have to screw it up. Of course, 14 years of losing has me conditioned to believe that implosion is imminent so I'm scared as all hell. But I'll get past that when I'm freezing my butt off at Oriole Park in late October.


For POPPA! We won't stop!

Last edited 8/11/2014 3:53 PM by Skipjacks

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Posted: 8/11/2014 5:35 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


Also...just for fun...lets say the Orioles take 2 of 3 from the Yankees this week. Here's how the numbers change...

They would need 23 more wins to reach 92.

Over the remaining 42 that means they would need to win at a .547 pace to reach 92.

The Yankees would still need to win 30 to reach 92 with only 42 left. They would then have to win at a .714 pace the rest of the way to reach 92 wins. Ain't no way ain't no how.

So winning this series would be huge.

For extra super duper fun....let's see what the numbers tell us if the Orioles sweep this series....

They would need to go .524 the rest of the way to reach 92

The Yankees would need to go .738 for the remaining 42.

Of course it's only fair to talk about bad possibilities....so if the Orioles get swept...

To still reach 92 they would need a .595 winning percentage over the remaining 42. That's by no means unthinkable.

The Yankees, on the other hand, would reduce their needed winning percentage to .667, probably still above their abilities.

But let's not take chances and end this by sweeping them. And then sweeping them again during the homestand that starts Sept 12th. Who likes that plan?


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Posted: 8/11/2014 7:46 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


That's the type of BS that only happens vs the yankees banghead
...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 8/11/2014 8:21 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


Start our prayers for Manny.....frownfrownfrownfrownfrown
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Posted: 8/11/2014 8:23 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


I'm at work, what happened?
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Posted: 8/11/2014 8:34 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


He goes down in a heap at home plate after his right knee buckles with him just trying get out of the box on a grounder to short.  Total speculation on my part but I'd say he's out for the year.  And I thought I felt bad for Kapron Lewis-Moore.
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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:13 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


This is why I hate Yankee games. Nothing good happens.

Louis Matos in 2005? Broken finger vs Yankees

Brian Roberts in (Pick any year)? Broken vs Yankees

Markakis in 2012? Broken vs Yankees

Machado in 2014? Broken vs Yankees

Even if they win this game they've lost today. hopefully in the 15 day range, but always possibly in the 'franchise changing' range.

Also Davis' home run pretty much proved that Buck was overthinking the matchups by replacing Davis with Pearce at first. That cost 2 runs on the botched run downs. Without Manny doing down later we might not see the 2 run shot from Davis.


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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:14 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


His knee crumpled during his swing which broke his bat. He never even tried to get out of the box. Looked awful. No reports yet but it looks really bad for him.
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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:14 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 



Jam31 wrote: He goes down in a heap at home plate after his right knee buckles with him just trying get out of the box on a grounder to short.  Total speculation on my part but I'd say he's out for the year.  And I thought I felt bad for Kapron Lewis-Moore.
Right knee sprain. He will be evaluated tomorrow.

That could be horrible. That could be 3-4 days of rest.


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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:18 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 



Skipjacks wrote: This is why I hate Yankee games. Nothing good happens.

Louis Matos in 2005? Broken finger vs Yankees

Brian Roberts in (Pick any year)? Broken vs Yankees

Markakis in 2012? Broken vs Yankees

Machado in 2014? Broken vs Yankees

Even if they win this game they've lost today. hopefully in the 15 day range, but always possibly in the 'franchise changing' range.

Also Davis' home run pretty much proved that Buck was overthinking the matchups by replacing Davis with Pearce at first. That cost 2 runs on the botched run downs. Without Manny doing down later we might not see the 2 run shot from Davis.
How did Pearce being on first have anything to do with the botched run down? It was Manny's throw that hit the first runner in the helmet?????????????
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Posted: 8/11/2014 9:27 PM

Re: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles [?-?-?] 


DAvis can really destroy pitcher's mistakes. Happily,like former Oriole Reynolds before him, he is finding the range a bit more lately. But Davis is becoming a HR or a whiff hitter pretty regularly now.
Tonites HR has been big...but Machado's injury has cast a bit of a pall. I sure hope Manny isn't going down the road of Nolan Reimold...can't be injury prone this early in his career.....

Last edited 8/11/2014 9:28 PM by insagt1

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