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O's Playoff Chances

Posted: 7/28/2014 8:39 AM

O's Playoff Chances 


Started to post this under the Angles game thread but thought it might be interesting to put a separate thread on here to we could track the O's chances of making the postseason.

According to Playoffstatus.com the O's have a slightly tougher schedule the rest of the way compared to the Yankees and the Blue Jays. The good news is that Tampa has an equally tough schedule to us and the Red Sox have the toughest schedule left.

According to the what if table the O's need to win 31 of their 58 remaining games to give them a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Splitting their remaining games would still give them a 74% chance of making the playoffs. So I like our chances.

http://playoffstatus.com/mlb/orioleswhatif.html

31-27 the rest of the way seems quite reasonable.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 8:58 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


I think the Orioles have as good a chance as anyone to make the playoffs. Check this out (from Steve Melewski):

"The Orioles have not had a less than .500 road trip all year.

* Went 3-3 at Detroit and New York
* Went 4-3 at Boston and Toronto
* Went 4-2 at Minnesota and Tampa Bay
* Went 3-3 at Kansas City and Pittsburgh
* Went 5-5 at Milwaukee, Houston and Texas
* Went 4-2 at Tampa Bay and New York
* Went 3-1 at Boston and Washington
* Went 6-4 at Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle"
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Posted: 7/28/2014 9:24 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


As of this morning the Orioles have a 3 game lead in the AL East over the Blue Jays and a 3 game lead on the 2nd Wild Card spot, also currently occupied by the Blue Jays.

The first wild card spot is the Angels' right now. They have a 5 game lead on the Orioles for that spot (ignoring the Orioles leading the division for the moment). So barring a total collapse the Angels and Oakland will win the AL West and first Wild Card spots. Though total collapses have and do happen.

For the second wild card spot there are 5 teams in striking distance. Toronto currently has it, 3 games behind Baltimore with their entire roster on the DL. New York is 4 games back of Baltimore and there is no logical reason that they are even that close. Seattle is 4.5 games behind Baltimore and in the midst of a mini meltdown, so they could fall off the pace quickly. Kansas City is 5 games behind Baltimore and they are only that close because they had an early season surge, but they aren't gaining any ground on anyone lately. (Cleveland is next on the list at 6.5 games behind Baltimore, but no. Just no. They are sub .500 right now and are not going to surge.) And Tampa is 3 games under .500 and 7.5 back from Baltimore but there is something about that team that prevents me from counting them out.

In any case, the fall back option of the Wild Card is in good shape. We'd all prefer not to go that route, but it's nice to know it's there.

MLB.com has a post season predictor as well.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standin...m_mlb_standings

Personally I think this is ridiculous. It puts the Orioles with a 63% chance of making it as of today with only a 47% shot at winning the division. 2 days ago it was 69% and 52%. Yesterday's win didn't move the needle at all. So this thing seems goofy to me. But it's fun to look at.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 10:39 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Looking at the Sept schedule it's certainly possible the could lose their spots - the month is pretty much entirely division play with 13 of the final 16 against NY & TOR

It's likely to come down to the wire


...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 7/28/2014 11:40 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 



DiscoJamal wrote:

Looking at the Sept schedule it's certainly possible the could lose their spots - the month is pretty much entirely division play with 13 of the final 16 against NY & TOR

It's likely to come down to the wire


Yup. So basically the Orioles are in the drivers seat.

If they can finish August even tied for first place with Toronto or New York (I cant' imagine both of these teams will be at the top in another 30 days) then the division comes down to beating the division rivals in September in the head to heads.

If the Orioles open their lead up by the end of August even a little bit, the Yankees and Blue Jays are going to be in a real tough position to make up ground in September.

From today until the end of the season there are 7 games left against the Yankees (3 here, 4 in NY) and 9 games left against the Blue Jays (3 here, 6 in Toronto).

The first 3 game sets against those two are next week and the week after. The Orioles need to win both of those series to open up some distance on both teams by mid August. Losing those series and letter either team creep closer is not an option. They have to win those.

If by some chance they can sweep either series it should blow the doors of the team they sweep. Toronto could be 5-7 back (depending on what happens this week) and New York could be 5-9 back depending on what happens over the next two weeks). I don't think either of those teams has the ammunition to come back form that far behind with 6 weeks to go. So sweeping those teams in August would be a really really really good idea that they should consider. biggrin
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Posted: 7/28/2014 11:53 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


The demise of #Orioles will be their bullpen. If there's a trade to be made they need a back end proven closer. #MLB

— Mark Gray (@thesportsgroove) July 27, 2014


I had to share this as it's possibly the dumbest thing I've read on Twitter (which is a collection of stupidity)  all weekend.  
...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:12 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Honestly I kind of agree that it's the bullpen that could be the team's biggest weakness. Don't get me wrong Britton and O'Day have been great but I'm still wondering if the bullpen as a whole is able to stay strong as a whole for the postseason.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:25 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Skip you added the key. As good as the O's have been on the road so far this year the remaining schedule favors the Yankees and Blue Jays. And especially the Blue Jays since we don't seem to play that well up in Toronto. Every game counts equally in the standings and a loss is a loss. But we are getting to the point in the season when meltdowns like the game in Oakland just have to be avoided if at all possible.

To me the O's are an interesting dynamic as far as a team goes. On one hand they seem to be very close as a team and very supportive of each other. Don't know how things are in the clubhouse but this team seems to have good chemistry. But on the other hand the thing I don't see is them having the killer instinct. Yesterday, albeit we did win, was a good example. It was a tight close game and we had two different innings where we smelled blood but didn't finish the other team off. We seem to play just well enough to win. Now that isn't all bad at all. But I would like to see more going for the kill. Come September if the Yankees and Blue Jays are on our heels we will need that extra bit of drive.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 12:31 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


We are thinking ahead of ourselves but if the pitching can get us to September before the call ups we will be fine in the bullpen department. Buck will fill that bullpen with 12 more arms if he has to.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:06 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Question is does Norfolk have the pitching we need to make sure that they can help us in the postseason. The only 2 pitchers I could see being of some service to us are Chris Jones and Brock Huntzinger. Meek is still there but I'm not sure I want him here.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:15 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 



stephenjames1979 wrote: Honestly I kind of agree that it's the bullpen that could be the team's biggest weakness. Don't get me wrong Britton and O'Day have been great but I'm still wondering if the bullpen as a whole is able to stay strong as a whole for the postseason.

I think our bullpen is strong and we have depth at AAA to be able to rotate guys in.  


I think our weaknesses are reliance on the HR a poor bench

...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 7/28/2014 1:24 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


I don't think we have a poor bench. May be average at best but not too bad.

Like I mentioned about the depth in AAA, I'm not very confident that we have the pitchers that can handle post season.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 2:04 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 



DiscoJamal wrote:

The demise of #Orioles will be their bullpen. If there's a trade to be made they need a back end proven closer. #MLB

— Mark Gray (@thesportsgroove) July 27, 2014


I had to share this as it's possibly the dumbest thing I've read on Twitter (which is a collection of stupidity)  all weekend.  
I love listening to Mark Gray but damn, that's pretty dumb. Britton has been lights out all year.

If anything, they just need a solid veteran for the 6th and 7th inning who could pitch in the 8th if necessary. I wouldn't mind seeing the O's go after LaTroy Hawkins. He'd be super cheap and a nice rental for the late-season stretch. Maybe even Neal Cotts or Chad Qualls, though I think their respective teams would want more than what Hawkins would cost. Basically a veteran rental for the rest of the season.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 4:11 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Jim Johnson is available CHEAP!

Keep in mind we'll likely make use of roster expansion in Sept.  I expect the bullpen might need to build out some kind of extension

We could use a lefty PH too,

Did anyone else find it odd, that buck was going to PH for Caleb yesterday but than pulled it back after Manny got the sac fly RBI?   

...and don't call me Shirley
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Posted: 7/28/2014 5:32 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 



DiscoJamal wrote:

Jim Johnson is available CHEAP!

Keep in mind we'll likely make use of roster expansion in Sept.  I expect the bullpen might need to build out some kind of extension

We could use a lefty PH too,

Did anyone else find it odd, that buck was going to PH for Caleb yesterday but than pulled it back after Manny got the sac fly RBI?   

Not at all. Told me that he favored Josephs defense over Hundley and since we had the lead and there were two outs that he would save the pinch hitter.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 5:34 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 



DiscoJamal wrote:

We could use a lefty PH too

I still think the O's should go after Adam Dunn. 

He's only under contract for 2014 so he's a perfect rental. He's hitting well against right-handed pitching (.839 OPS) and boasts a .961 OPS when hitting with runners in scoring position.

I doubt he'd break the bank for the O's to acquire. Maybe a couple mid-level prospects would get the job done.
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Posted: 7/28/2014 6:41 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Hawkins would be cool. And Tony Sipp in Houston is having a great year.

But even our bullpen is alright with me. I think Webb-O'Day-Britton is an outstanding combination for the 7th, 8th, 9th. TJ and Brach give good length. Hunter and Matusz have been sucking less recently too.

I wouldn't be mad at all if Dan just held on to our prospects and let the season play out
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Posted: 7/28/2014 9:35 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Slight change of topic for just a sec - Disco, I sent you a trade offer in fantasy. Have you seen it?
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Posted: 7/28/2014 11:20 PM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Toronto won tonight BIG again the Red Sox. That brings them to a mere 2.5 back.

New York lost to the hapless Rangers. They sit are 4.5 back.

Somehow the Rays beat the Brewers. They moved up to 7 back.

So 2 of the 3 teams I'm concerned with won.

But that means one of them lost. So we'll call that a good night!
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Posted: 7/29/2014 12:57 AM

Re: O's Playoff Chances 


Read a rumor that Duquette is actually checking on Lester.
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