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Davis-Reynolds

Posted: 6/30/2014 11:40 AM

Davis-Reynolds 


Assuming last season was really an outlier season for Davis, I have voiced some 'concern' that Davis is merely another Mark Reynolds. So I wondered, is he?

So far in 2014, both have had virtually the same number of plate appearances. Here's where they are:

Reynolds--- .213; 6 doubles; no triples; 13 HR's; 31 RBI; 32 walks; 84 k's; .308 OBP; .402 slugging; .710 OPS

Davis-------- .212; 9 doubles; no triples; 13 HR's; 41 RBI; 39 walks; 84 k's; .333 OBP;  .414 slugging; .749 OPS

Statistically, they are pretty close in nearly every category. Chris has 10 more RBI and marginally higher OBP and OPS but not enough to turn heads.

So for me, 1st half, they are basically the same player. Davis may be a better defensive 1Bman. Reynolds can still play 3rd but I'd never want him there. Davis has IMO a much higher ceiling but so far we haven't seen it.

Just throwing this out there FWIW.noidea

(for kicks I did the same comparison with Adam Dunn...since he is the same sort of genre hitter...his stats this year are pretty much better across the board, surprisingly. The 'k's are about the same but his on base and power numbers are better. (Davis still has the most RBI)

Last edited 6/30/2014 12:37 PM by insagt1

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Posted: 6/30/2014 2:19 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


Davis is not a 212 hitter. He is not a 300 hitter but not this bad. I think something is up with his hand/arm wrist thanks to being injured late last season ala Nick Markakis late 2013.  Both guys required surgery if I am correct,yes? We may not see the Davis who hits .265 and 38 HR's until 2015.

.

http://www.baseball-reference....davisch02.shtml

 

 

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Posted: 6/30/2014 2:36 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


I've made an extensive post about this exact matter. I can't remember where I posted it but it's comparing the career BABIP and last three years BABIP of Davis and Reynolds. Basically, without mentioning a single number other than the following two, based on BABIP history, Davis is a .260 hitter while Reynolds is, in fact, a .215 hitter.

Yes, BABIP is not an end-all, be-all way to identify the batting average region a guy should fall in....but it's one of the best ways to attempt to do so.

Is Davis scuffling? Yeah, definitely. He's clearly out of sorts in his swing mechanics and his confidence is probably not where it should be....however, he is NOT a sub-.220 hitter.

You can even get really basic and just look at their minor league stats....Davis was a career .318 hitter while Reynolds was a .279 hitter. Even OPS is in Davis' favor; he had a .970 OPS while Reynolds had a .883 OPS.

Bottom line is Davis is having an awful year. That doesn't mean he's now defined by this season. I am very confident that if he doesn't get it together in 2014, he will in 2015.
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Posted: 6/30/2014 3:27 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


I only did the comparison for this year and nothing else. 2014. Who do you want on your team? Career stats won't help us in 2014 unless they are achieved. The accurate statement is DAvis is having an awful year...THIS YEAR and it most closely resembles the Mark Reynolds of this year. Thats all.

Could all change next year if Davis (who I and others really believe is playing injured) gets healthy and confident again. When he's 'on' and focused you can see he has decent plate discipline, for a slugger. Much better than Reynolds. But first half results simply indicate that he and Reynolds are pretty much the same player.

Do I hope that changes? OF COURSE.

Using history, I can't argue with the numbers. Is Davis 'due' for a correction? Maybe, but maybe not this season.
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Posted: 7/1/2014 8:54 AM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 



sczepp wrote:

Davis is not a 212 hitter. He is not a 300 hitter but not this bad. I think something is up with his hand/arm wrist thanks to being injured late last season ala Nick Markakis late 2013.  Both guys required surgery if I am correct,yes? We may not see the Davis who hits .265 and 38 HR's until 2015.

.

http://www.baseball-reference....davisch02.shtml

 

 

Davis leads Flaherty .208 to .206!tonguetonguetongue

Last 10 games: Flaherty 5-25; Davis 4-31coolcool

Clearly Flaherty should replace Davis at 3rd base!winkwinkwink

This is fun.....

Last edited 7/1/2014 8:58 AM by insagt1

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Posted: 7/1/2014 12:42 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


2 years back Hardy had similar a similar avg around this time of year i suspect Davis's avg will climb by years end. Look for Davis to start to relax around the all star break and come back hitting well eneough to land his avg at 240 or above.
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Posted: 7/1/2014 1:31 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


The problem Davis has is with last years performance he raised expectations.  At the half way point he has 13 HR's and 41 RBI's.  If he ends this year with 26 HR's and 82 RBI's we would be happy with that from most players.  You know it's the truth.  Outside of Cruz and Jones, who do we expect to end the year with 26 HR's and 82 RBI's?  Wieters may have had a chance, but he won't be back this year.

 

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Posted: 7/1/2014 7:24 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 



POPPA wrote: The problem Davis has is with last years performance he raised expectations.  At the half way point he has 13 HR's and 41 RBI's.  If he ends this year with 26 HR's and 82 RBI's we would be happy with that from most players.  You know it's the truth.  Outside of Cruz and Jones, who do we expect to end the year with 26 HR's and 82 RBI's?  Wieters may have had a chance, but he won't be back this year.
I don't think the HR's or RBI's are the concern, it the .208 BA that bring up the questions.




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Posted: 7/1/2014 8:13 PM

Re: Davis-Reynolds 


Yes indeed...it has been said here not to be concerned with the BA...but as the BA continues to plummet, so does the OBP, which has been one of his strong suits. .208 is bad. this may not be him, but in watching him hit, he still does not look comfortable. The other problem with projecting his season based on first half is that over the past month, he has been terrible. The trend has not been good.
We all keep waiting for him to pull out of this. In the meantime, others have picked up the slack. So, because of the mediocre division this year, no harm no foul....yet.
We have gotten big bonuses with Pearce and Young. And I guess you have to say Cruz too.
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