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Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13

Posted: 2/12/2013 10:41 AM

Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


Basically, these lists are crapshoots anyways. But, since there's an Oriole on it, I figured I'd share.

Jim Bowden placed Chris Tillman, 24, as 4th on his list of 7 likely breakout players this year in an insider article (not sure why this was an insider article lol).

Here's hoping he's right!
"This team's gonna be very good in a hurry."- Peter Gammons
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Posted: 2/12/2013 4:04 PM

Re: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


I can see it but honestly, if I were to pick just one Oriole that would break out I'd go with Machado. He only had a couple of months to play but once he starts the season out and stays hot, he's going to be on the cover of sports magazine.
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Posted: 2/12/2013 9:20 PM

Re: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


I think Machado is going to be a special ballplayer, but I would like him to increase his walks and cut down on the strikeouts.
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Posted: 2/15/2013 6:07 AM

Re: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


I think that to the national media Machado is already "broken out"
"You can't hurt this, I'm a machine - jerk!" Ray Lewis

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Posted: 2/15/2013 8:09 AM

Re: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


Tillman really impressed me at the end of the season for the Orioles. Several times going 9 innings including a 1 hitter.If he is capable of doing that in 2013 he could win 20 games and be the ace of this staff.
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Posted: 2/15/2013 12:07 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


Tillman worries me. I just don't see him putting up the same numbers ERA/wins wise as last year.

His .221 BABIP is unworldly low. When he had a 5.87 ERA in 2010, it was .256. There's going to be some regression (Verlander last year .273, Felix Hernandez .308).

The most encouraging thing was a slight uptick in strikeouts, but a serious drop in walks.

I'm not saying he won't be good, I'm just saying he had been a statistical outlier in a major category that could have led to success.

That said, things I loved about Tillman last year: AVG fastball velovicty jumped to over 93, and while holding a career norm (and solid average) of 60 % fastballs, he mixed in more changeups with his curve than ever, and his average differential between fastball/changeup was more than 10 mph while still throwing his change in the 82-84 range. That's looking like a real power arsenal to go with his already raved about curve (which has always been good). If he can continue to mix in those changes, while throwing two varieties of his fastball, he'll reach his potential over 200 innings instead of 80+.

Throw the 2 seamer for strikes dammit.
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Posted: 2/15/2013 12:13 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 



OsMagik wrote: Tillman worries me. I just don't see him putting up the same numbers ERA/wins wise as last year.

His .221 BABIP is unworldly low. When he had a 5.87 ERA in 2010, it was .256. There's going to be some regression (Verlander last year .273, Felix Hernandez .308).

The most encouraging thing was a slight uptick in strikeouts, but a serious drop in walks.

I'm not saying he won't be good, I'm just saying he had been a statistical outlier in a major category that could have led to success.

That said, things I loved about Tillman last year: AVG fastball velovicty jumped to over 93, and while holding a career norm (and solid average) of 60 % fastballs, he mixed in more changeups with his curve than ever, and his average differential between fastball/changeup was more than 10 mph while still throwing his change in the 82-84 range. That's looking like a real power arsenal to go with his already raved about curve (which has always been good). If he can continue to mix in those changes, while throwing two varieties of his fastball, he'll reach his potential over 200 innings instead of 80+.
For sure some regression there, but I'm still very, very optimistic on Tillman's future now. His delivery was so much cleaner and mechanically sound. He looked in control and his walks plummeted as a result. Great to see. I don't expect him to put up a 2.93 ERA again because he isn't Justin Verlander, but I'm expecting a good year out of Chris.

Props to Rick Peterson for identifying Chris' mechanical issues, to Tillman for being humble and mature enough to accept Peterson's suggestions, and to Duquette for being smart enough to bring in a mechanics genius like Rick Peterson. Actually, double props to Duquette for bringing in enough capable ML pitchers so that our struggling young guys could go down to Norfolk and figure it out there.
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Posted: 2/15/2013 12:41 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


Peterson is the reason why I'm thinking Tillman could have a solid year this season. Maybe not an ace, but his potential could finally be reality if he posts the number the strikeout numbers that we thought he could have.
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Posted: 2/15/2013 1:44 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


im keeping an eye on to see what Peterson can do for Pinero.
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Posted: 2/16/2013 3:15 AM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 



stephenjames1979 wrote: Peterson is the reason why I'm thinking Tillman could have a solid year this season. Maybe not an ace, but his potential could finally be reality if he posts the number the strikeout numbers that we thought he could have.
what do you do if he runs into a slump? rick adair is the pitching coach in the bigs, Peterson is roving around coordinating in the minors.

Throw the 2 seamer for strikes dammit.
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Posted: 2/16/2013 8:13 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


If he slumps, you can't send him to the minors without him going through waivers. I don't see him passing through it and then being sent to AAA. My guess is if he slumps then he's sent to the bullpen and someone takes his spot in the rotation.
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Posted: 2/17/2013 1:06 PM

RE: Jim Bowden's 7 Potential Breakout Players for '13 


The question is implying an imbalance of approach. Peterson has his, Adair has his. The structure is currently set up for heads to butt if two guys have different ideas on how to fix a slumping pitcher, especially at the major league level, and especially when a guy cannot be sent down.

Throw the 2 seamer for strikes dammit.
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