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Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears

Posted: 10/23/2013 5:30 AM

Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


No doubt Cutler is the best QB I've seen in a Bears uniform in my life. But I am no longer thinking we must re-sign him for next year. Don't get me wrong here. I do believe that the Bears should persue re-signing him...but I do not see the point of paying top 10 QB money for his historically average play.

  • His stats do not rank him all that well in just about any category. At this point in the season his TD count is the best stat he has when compared to other QBs and that is only 9th. I could break down each an every QB category and show where he ranks but in almost all catetories he is at about 15 to 19.
  • He isn't getting any younger
  • He cannot seem to remain healthy. Yes, a poor o-line with his time here with the Bears hasn't helped but his line hasn't been bad this year and he has racked up concussions in his time. Certainly the time he spends on the field needs to be taken into consideration when determining how much you pay him. You don't want to pay for someone who appears to have an increased likelihood of not playing ever offensive stat every year of the contract.
  • Cutler's best performance with the Bears has been when our GM went out and giftwrapped a good WR corp, decent TE, a brand new line, and an offensive minded HC. The sign of a great QB is when he can elevate the play of those around him. Cutler needed those around him to elevate him. OK...admittedly we were really bad on the offensive side personel wise before this year.


With Cutler being out it is the perfect time to see what we have in our HC. Is he really the "QB Whisperer"? If we can get consistent good numbers and performance out of backups these next few weeks the max size of the next contract to Cutler has to shrink. I am not suggesting Mcknown is our future even if he plays really well over the next few weeks. Rather that if he, a journeyman QB who couldn't keep a starting job in the league, starts looking as good or better than Cutler with the same offensive tools Cutler had then we have to ask ourselves if Cutler is worth signing at a high price. 

And of course if our backups look pathetic over the course of the next few games...Cutler might get expensive tongue
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Posted: 10/23/2013 8:10 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


This will go well.
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  • gcoop33
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Posted: 10/23/2013 8:18 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


The whole Marc Trestman is a QB whisperer has been brought up time and time again, here and on sports radio, and Sportstalk live.....you know how much stock you should put in it? NONE

When media outlets bring that up, they point to Russel Wilson as the supporting argument. How many QBs did Trestman like that didn't turn out over his 30+ years. Whether he believed it or not he said, in his book, that Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen was headed for NFL stardom.


Also in his book, he has said, the key to being a good coach is to have a very talented QB. He made no bones about that. He said a coach can't be successful without a good QB.

Marc Trestman has had about 15 different jobs over the last 30 years....he finally gets his head coaching job. I do not see how he can look around the league, at some of these teams trotting out junk at the starting QB and be naive enough to think he can just go hand pick a rookie and start him and be successful.

If Marc Trestman held the golden hand to hand selecting a QB he would have not been available to The Bears this year. He wouldn't have been available when Lovie Smith interviewed him for the OC job in 2003, and he probably would have been a sure bet for Canton right now.

He has had a crazy career, filled with a lot of unfortunate circumstance, that derailed his career. I don't see how a smart guy like himself, would give up Jay Cutler, and roll the dice with a draft pick and a journeyman, and risk blowing his chance as an NFL Head Coach. Because that is what would happen. If he lets Cutler walks, and the draft pick becomes McNown, Mirer, Grossman, or pick any other of the 20 they went to in the last 10-15 years....he and possibly Emery are out of a job. I don't see how they want to hitch their careers to that wagon.

You can't focus on the 100 million dollar number. It's about guaranteed money. It's about years. You sign Cutler, who already has an 11 million dollar cap number towards the cap. That number will go up but not by that much. There are large cap numbers coming off the books next year, so that will still allow you flexibility, to fix the defense. You can still draft a guy who Trestman likes, and if in 2-3 seasons you rather go with him, then you trade Cutler and get something for him. Or you might be able to trade the other guy if you want. There will be a market. You think any teams right now in some of their situations would give up a few draft picks to sign Cutler in 2-3 years. Teams will always be in that situation and there will always be a team that needs a QB.

Also, you can still make a very good argument that Cutlers best year was the year they were 7-3, and he got hurt, and had no,weapons. He made chicken salad out of chicken sh t, and that season while statistically not eye popping, he was very good considering the conditions. Good offenses have weapons, good Quarterbacks need weapons. Sure fire hall,of fame QBs can make good weapons look great, but nobody is sitting here calling him a Hall of a fame QB.

The market is the market. Said it with Forte....will say it again with Cutler. Stafford and Romo have probably set the market. THe threat of a franchise tag will lessen the asking price. Mike Silver thinks he has it all figured out, but I thought his article was pretty off base and full of speculation. Trestman lets Cutler walk, and misses...he is gone and he will move his family for the 16th time. And after reading his book, and getting an idea of how he thinks, and hearing how he talks about Cutler I think he has really enjoyed working with Cutler.

Trestmans greatest success has been with Young Gannon, Kosar and Cavillo in Toronto. None of those guys were hand picked by Trestman I believe. They were all established with their team. Now he definitely elevated the likes of Gannon and Kosar, both at Miami and Cleveland, and Cavillo. I also have been loving the hire of Tresmtan love his story, great book, and encourage you to read it. It makes you want to see Marc Trestman Succed as head coach of the Bears. But I don't see him buying a lottery ticket and hoping to hit the QB jackpot.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 8:45 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


Regardless of the HC if all the weapons on offense translate into ~4 games of similar or better qb performance out of our backup(s) then Cutler's upcoming contract value has to be questioned
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Posted: 10/23/2013 8:56 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


Only time will tell when we can get back to accepting that Cutler is the best QB option the Bears have. The last time he went down with injury midseason we were all gushing about how safe Hanie was as a backup. Teams gameplanned for him and Hanie played himself right off the team. I'm starting to hear similar praise for McCown now.

IMO, Cutler's deal means nothing if the "QB of the future" isn't on the roster. Cutler is locked up until that happens and even when it does he'll still be here while they coach said "QB of the future" up.

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  • gcoop33
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Posted: 10/23/2013 9:14 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


The offense could play the same, but unless that translates to a playoff appearance and more likely a playoff win or 2 then You can make the argument that a journeyman can lead you to mediocrity but not over the hump and the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl.

There is no doubt the Bears offense is in better hands now then the last three years, when Cutler got hurt. A better offensive mind that will be able to hide deficiencies and adjust accordingly. That doesn't mean he can run his offense to the full capability.

But I agree with bowl. similar Caleb Hanie comments were made because of the nfC championship game. QB is still the most important position in Sports, and finding the guy is probably harder than any other position.

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--- Evesowner wrote:

Regardless of the HC if all the weapons on offense translate into ~4 games of similar or better qb performance out of our backup(s) then Cutler's upcoming contract value has to be questioned

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Posted: 10/23/2013 10:21 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


All Qb's need solid weapons, decent protection and a competent play-caller. To say he was "gift-wrapped" those things is absurd. That is a GM's job, to make the team better. Without Cutler the Bears aren't close to the NFC title game in 2011, and his #1 WR was Knox, his play-caller was Martz and his starting tackles were Omiyale/Webb. So, let's not act like he didn't have some success with arguably the worst combo of weapons/protection and play-calling in the league.

Now, to the larger point. The Bears obviously have an idea of what they are going to do. Many fans are still up in the air about it considering his injury history, his age, and overall investment it will cost the Bears instead of perhaps investing in fixing other parts of the team. I do think we'll get to see how this offense runs with a "plug-and-play" QB situation now with McCown, that is one positive to this Cutler injury. If McCown does a good/adequate job in the Trestman system, the Bears might feel that many Qb's can do an admirable job and they can go cheaper next season at the Qb position. The concern I have is the overall unknown. If there is still a legit question on what the Bears will do this late in the process, that might spell the end for Cutler. If Cutler was drafted or traded for by Emery I feel we would have the answer by now.
"There are two kinds of people in the world, those with a rope around the neck and the people who have the job of doing the cutting."-Tuco
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  • greenl
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Posted: 10/23/2013 10:40 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


Bears will tag Cuter for a year. Give them another year to evaluate him. Also gives them a chance to draft his replacement- you never know when a talented QB might drop in the draft. If he plays lights out next year- problem solved- ink him to a 4 or 5 year deal. If not- onto the next QB.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 10:58 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 




---------------------------------------------
--- Evesowner wrote:

Regardless of the HC if all the weapons on offense translate into ~4 games of similar or better qb performance out of our backup(s) then Cutler's upcoming contract value has to be questioned

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I get what you're saying and I agree to a certain degree. If we can get similar production out of a career journeyman, then why pay top dollar for a guy who, aside from one big season in Denver, has been borderline average?? Not to mention over 30 years old and has injury problems.

It's that very reason that I was screaming for Emery to take a QB in the draft last April. From the looks of it, it was probably a good thing he didn't, but this upcoming class is said to be loaded with QB talent.

Now, I'm not against re-signing Cutler by any means...he's a talented QB. But I totally understand what you're saying evesowner. In my mind, I want to see Trestman take a rookie QB and develop the kid into a solid NFL starter. Cutler being around or not, I haven't seen a young QB developed into a stud in Chicago in, well, ever.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:04 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


Do you believe Phil Emery has the systems in place to identify and draft quality players, whether it is the QB or not.  His record is decent, but he has made a couple of mistakes (Shea).  But overall, you look at the totally improved O-Line, players like Jeffery and FA pick ups like Bennett and young players with potential like Bostic and you feel pretty good.

Do you believe that Trestman is what everyone claims him to be, a QB guru.  He has a massive track record and if you look at just the Bears stuff just look at pre-snap penalties.  That right there is all you need to know that he knows what he is doing.  If you want to lump in McKown's performance you can do that but I think Trestman knows what he is doing.

Do you trust Cutler to get better?  I don't.  I think what you see is what you get.  A guy who makes plays, takes risks, has bad fundamentals and does not do the little things and cannot beat teams over .500.

So why would you franchise him.  What is the point.  This is the draft to get QBs, maybe not a sure fire pick like Luck, but there are probably a few who can jump right in and starting learning the game from Trestman.  Do you want a QB to sit for a year?  Then you can justify the franchise tag.

I don't think they tag him to see if he can do it next year THEN give him the option of a long term contract.  I think Cutler's time is up.  He had 5 years.  Grossman had less time and took the team to the QB.  Obviously Cutler is much better than Rex but the point is to make a decision and go with it.

Another reason to tag him would be the massive holes elsewhere.  This is not a one draft fix.  It will take another two drafts to totally revamp this team.  They started with the offense this year and you are seeing the results.  If they go to a totally new scheme next year, which they probably will, they will have to have a great draft and FA.  You can turn it around real quick in the NFL, so maybe by tagging Cutler they have a legit chance next year at the play-offs.

Neither Emery or Trestman are linked to Cutler.  That is Angelo's pick, and he is gone.  The GM has the right to build his team any way he sees fit and the new HC has the right to get a new QB if he sees fit.  I think the best thing to do is let Cutler walk and start over.  Blow up the entire defense (and scheme) start over.  It might be a bad year, but if they do it right in two years time you might have a team that resembles the Seahawks....a team that meshes well with their salary cap and not all that money tied up in a mediocre QB.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:04 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 



greenl wrote: Bears will tag Cuter for a year. Give them another year to evaluate him. Also gives them a chance to draft his replacement- you never know when a talented QB might drop in the draft. If he plays lights out next year- problem solved- ink him to a 4 or 5 year deal. If not- onto the next QB.
I have to agree with this.  Most likely Cutler gets a mulligan for this year, we tag him, take a QB in the first three rounds to cover our asses, and see where we go from there.  He gets hurt again next year it's buh bye.

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/9179/muntz.jpg

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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:33 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


We have way too many needs on defense to use a pick on a QB. Unless Emery can work miracles in FA, I just don't see a QB in the draft. Think about how many guys need to be replaced now...

Peppers
Melton likely
Collins?
Wright
Conte
Garza

Then there's the aging guys that need someone to develop behind

Briggs
Tillman
Jennings

Then there's the guys you'd like to upgrade

Shea
another DT/safety/corner

Don't forget half the team is on a 1-year or the last year of their contract.

How many picks has Jerry left us with for next year? 5 or 6?

I have confidence Emery can run another good draft. His first was really Jerry & Lovie's - he didn't have time to overhaul the draft board and the scouting departments. So I do not blame him for Shea, Rodriguez, Hardin etc. (but I wish he would back off his defense of Shea).

So I'm thinking we tag Cutler or sign him to an incentive-laden contract for 2 or 3 years, fix the D in 2014, then in 2015 we can start with the developmental QBs and start building depth. Jerry and Lovie left this team with very little talent, no draft picks and no cap space. This is going to take a couple more years to fix.
de7ee64d.gif picture by shark86x
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:37 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


That's a bit flawed though.  You aren't going to fix a defense in one year through a draft.  Right now the defense is in horrible shape and they are having to start their 2nd and 4th rd linebackers.  Their 6th/7th rd DE's hardly get any sort of playing time whatsoever, like on most every team.   

They are going to have to fix the defense through off-season spending, and perhaps a coordinator change, especially if they move to the 3-4.   The Bears are desperate right now for DE play, they have two rookies from this year's draft and they hardly see the field.  Those guys might be decent, but coaches aren't going to go to late round rookies unless they absolutely have to.  Drafting D is fine, and it will be a must, I agree, but they aren't going to fix it in a year with a bunch of rookies.   It is going to have to be done spending.....that makes the Cutler $ situation a concern. 
shark86x wrote: We have way too many needs on defense to use a pick on a QB. Unless Emery can work miracles in FA, I just don't see a QB in the draft. Think about how many guys need to be replaced now...

Peppers
Melton likely
Collins?
Wright
Conte
Garza

Then there's the aging guys that need someone to develop behind

Briggs
Tillman
Jennings

Then there's the guys you'd like to upgrade

Shea
another DT/safety/corner

Don't forget half the team is on a 1-year or the last year of their contract.

How many picks has Jerry left us with for next year? 5 or 6?

I have confidence Emery can run another good draft. His first was really Jerry & Lovie's - he didn't have time to overhaul the draft board and the scouting departments. So I do not blame him for Shea, Rodriguez, Hardin etc. (but I wish he would back off his defense of Shea).

So I'm thinking we tag Cutler or sign him to an incentive-laden contract for 2 or 3 years, fix the D in 2014, then in 2015 we can start with the developmental QBs and start building depth. Jerry and Lovie left this team with very little talent, no draft picks and no cap space. This is going to take a couple more years to fix.
"There are two kinds of people in the world, those with a rope around the neck and the people who have the job of doing the cutting."-Tuco
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:37 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


But this is THE draft to take a QB.  There are multiple guys out there who are big time potential starters with NFL arms.  There is no Andrew Luck, but there are a lot of other guys.  Draft your project QB in this draft.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:43 AM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


How much is a franchise tag for a qb going to cost next year? That franchise tag means the whole amount hits that year's cap. Is that going to be a concern if we need to spend on FA due to large number of needs?

What I am getting at is that "if" a journeyman qb can put up similar numbers and performance as cutler then why spend big money on him. Again....all of this is if backups manage to do just as well or better than cutler over the next ~4 games
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Posted: 10/23/2013 11:58 AM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


Angelo and Lovie did leave the Bears in a bit of a bad situation. But when the 2014 offseason begins, the Bears will have the 2nd most cap space in the NFL...and that's before they presumably release Peppers. The cap number isn't set yet, but I've read that they'll be sitting somewhere between $48 and $52 million in cap space.

2014 seems like the perfect time to take a QB in the draft, because as even Emery as acknowledged, it's a deep and talented QB class. The defense can be re-tooled through draft picks and the free-agent market.

Emery was able to add Bushrod, Bennett to long term deals and Slauson, Williams and Anderson on one year deals with the Bears right up against the cap. Who saw that coming?? I didn't.

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--- shark86x wrote:

We have way too many needs on defense to use a pick on a QB. Unless Emery can work miracles in FA, I just don't see a QB in the draft. Think about how many guys need to be replaced now...

Peppers
Melton likely
Collins?
Wright
Conte
Garza

Then there's the aging guys that need someone to develop behind

Briggs
Tillman
Jennings

Then there's the guys you'd like to upgrade

Shea
another DT/safety/corner

Don't forget half the team is on a 1-year or the last year of their contract.

How many picks has Jerry left us with for next year? 5 or 6?

I have confidence Emery can run another good draft. His first was really Jerry & Lovie's - he didn't have time to overhaul the draft board and the scouting departments. So I do not blame him for Shea, Rodriguez, Hardin etc. (but I wish he would back off his defense of Shea).

So I'm thinking we tag Cutler or sign him to an incentive-laden contract for 2 or 3 years, fix the D in 2014, then in 2015 we can start with the developmental QBs and start building depth. Jerry and Lovie left this team with very little talent, no draft picks and no cap space. This is going to take a couple more years to fix.

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Posted: 10/23/2013 12:02 PM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 


As long as this thread is still on the rails because a couple of the favorites haven't shown up yet, I think the injuries are an interesting question that we haven't really explored yet.  The 2 bad injuries that he's had haven't been knees or ankles, and they've come on relatively normal looking plays.  The guy takes more hits than anyone on the planet and I'm not sure any of us really understand what his body has to go through to even be ready to play on gamedays with his diabetes.  He's one of the toughest SOB's in the entire league, especially at his position, but I think it's fair to wonder how his body is going to hold up as he gets into his 30's and wonder if that's worth the investment.  We're not just talking about 2014 here.  We're talking about 4-5 years down the road.  I still think you make the commitment, but I don't think it's just slam dunk, no questions asked.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 12:03 PM

RE: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 



Evesowner wrote: How much is a franchise tag for a qb going to cost next year? That franchise tag means the whole amount hits that year's cap. Is that going to be a concern if we need to spend on FA due to large number of needs?

What I am getting at is that "if" a journeyman qb can put up similar numbers and performance as cutler then why spend big money on him. Again....all of this is if backups manage to do just as well or better than cutler over the next ~4 games
This is where it might get real interesting.  If you don't want to even franchise the guy, you have to try and get something in trade. I wonder what his trade value would be worth?
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Posted: 10/23/2013 12:04 PM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 




---------------------------------------------
--- AngryBearsFan wrote:

But this is THE draft to take a QB.  There are multiple guys out there who are big time potential starters with NFL arms.  There is no Andrew Luck, but there are a lot of other guys.  Draft your project QB in this draft.

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EXACTLY! From everything I have read, this is one of the best and deepest QB classes to come around in a looooooooong time. Guys like Bridgewater, Morris, Hundley, Murray, Hogan (if he enters)...heck, even that little sh*thead Manziel (who I don't think will amount to anything btw). And those are just a few of the top names in the upcoming class. A perfect year to take a young QB to develop for a year or two, in my opinion.

A class like this one doesn't come around very often.
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Posted: 10/23/2013 12:15 PM

Re: Just not sure about Cutler's future with the Bears 



AngryBearsFan wrote: Do you believe Phil Emery has the systems in place to identify and draft quality players, whether it is the QB or not.  His record is decent, but he has made a couple of mistakes (Shea).  But overall, you look at the totally improved O-Line, players like Jeffery and FA pick ups like Bennett and young players with potential like Bostic and you feel pretty good.

Do you believe that Trestman is what everyone claims him to be, a QB guru.  He has a massive track record and if you look at just the Bears stuff just look at pre-snap penalties.  That right there is all you need to know that he knows what he is doing.  If you want to lump in McKown's performance you can do that but I think Trestman knows what he is doing.

Do you trust Cutler to get better?  I don't.  I think what you see is what you get.  A guy who makes plays, takes risks, has bad fundamentals and does not do the little things and cannot beat teams over .500.
As long as you continue to evaluate QB play by this, your opinion on the matter will be rightfully criticized. There were several games that Cutler played very well in that were losses to teams over .500. Through this point Cutler has been a top-ten passer in yards and efficiency. This is a fact.

So why would you franchise him.  What is the point.  This is the draft to get QBs, maybe not a sure fire pick like Luck, but there are probably a few who can jump right in and starting learning the game from Trestman.  Do you want a QB to sit for a year?  Then you can justify the franchise tag.
Again, scoring has not been the problem for the Bears this season. It's giving up scores. When you rely one EITHER side of the ball to win games, you need that side to be PERFECT. Perfection doesn't happen often on Sundays.

This is why I've felt all these years that the "Offense/Defense wins championships" logic is flawed....BOTH do. That's how you want to build your team. Right now defense is the problem. I don't want P.E. as the Bears GM if he suddenly prioritizes finding the "QB of the future" over a prime chance to stop the bleeding on defense. I remind you, this isn't 2008.


I don't think they tag him to see if he can do it next year THEN give him the option of a long term contract.  I think Cutler's time is up.  He had 5 years.  Grossman had less time and took the team to the QB.  Obviously Cutler is much better than Rex but the point is to make a decision and go with it.
Nothing Emery has done agrees with you.

Another reason to tag him would be the massive holes elsewhere.  This is not a one draft fix.  It will take another two drafts to totally revamp this team.  They started with the offense this year and you are seeing the results.  If they go to a totally new scheme next year, which they probably will, they will have to have a great draft and FA.  You can turn it around real quick in the NFL, so maybe by tagging Cutler they have a legit chance next year at the play-offs.
Within these words lies the reason that Cutler will be here...needs to be here. Without him you are gambling, plain and simple. It will be easy for you and others to applaud dumping Jay and starting a rookie next season and he turns out to be a future HOF'er in his first season.

Not saying it's impossible, but the odds are not in your favor. But the smart money says that those that hope this happens will stay FAR away if it backfires and we DO go back to 2008. Draft a developmental QB and don't let him on the field until he's diagnosed the system for at least 2 years. The current struggles of the HALL OF FAME ROOKIE CLASS of 2012 ROOKIE QB's should be a reminder of the age-old, smart way to groom a QB.


Neither Emery or Trestman are linked to Cutler.  That is Angelo's pick, and he is gone.  The GM has the right to build his team any way he sees fit and the new HC has the right to get a new QB if he sees fit.  I think the best thing to do is let Cutler walk and start over.  Blow up the entire defense (and scheme) start over.  It might be a bad year, but if they do it right in two years time you might have a team that resembles the Seahawks....a team that meshes well with their salary cap and not all that money tied up in a mediocre QB.
ohlord. You are speaking for both these men as though you know what's going on in their heads. The text in red is the truth, isn't it? YOUR truth. The problem is, you've inserted that into the minds of two professionals that you have 0 connection to. Your wording implies that they only deal with Cutler because they have to and not because they see value in him.

The problem is, nothing they've done suggests that they feel that the QB position is holding this team back. List some things that have been done that suggest any of that. I base my feelings on what the team is doing on what they've done. Speculating what they're thinking is just the fast track to you, as a fan, mind linking your own personal agenda to theirs. It's not rooted in fact or reality.

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