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Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
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Posted: 2/24/2013 5:52 AM
Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
I was listening to 680 the fan last night driving home....around 7:30pm and (maybe someone can tell me whose show is usually on at that time) but the host was talking about the team to beat in the NL. Like most for some reason it's the Nationals according to him. I really don't get how it's never the defending champs according to people. And the Nats finished just 4 games ahead of us and lost their first playoff series....ever? Or at least since they've been the Nationals I think. He mentioned the Dodgers as threats but also stated that he believed the Braves starting rotation is overrated. That actually riled me up a bit so I decided to call in.
I wanted to know why he felt that way and I expressed my belief that we have the most complete rotation in the league. I consider myself a non biased fan and someone who can be very critical of his teams but I want to know what you guys think. Of course he said I am looking at it as a biased Braves fan.
Hudson is a quality starter in this league. I'm confident every single time he takes the mound. No one was better than Medlen when he entered the rotation last year. Kid was unhittable. Minor was bad early on last year but in the second half of the season, the kid was as good as anyone. Maholm is a pretty good number 4 pitcher. Nothing flashy but in the 4th spot, a solid lefty to go to. Sky is the limit with Teheran and he'll be at the end of the rotation until who was sure to be a Cy Young candidate in Brandon Beachy is healthy enough to return.
I presented this to him and he said I'm looking at it thru Braves glasses, Hudson is old, Medlen is unproven, and Teheran is a rookie. Thoughts?
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Posted: 2/24/2013 8:08 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
YoungTrusion09 wrote: I expressed my belief that we have the most complete rotation in the league. I consider myself a non biased fan Might want to reconsider that.
"If someone asked me what color are starbursts I'd say they're clear/white." "banana ice cream [...] a great filling breakfast"
- Zito
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Posted: 2/24/2013 8:45 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
I'm not sure who has been over rating the rotation. I'm not aware of any National or local media touting them as the second coming. I have heard some optimism towards the potential the rotation holds The radio host may not have been aware that the Braves are returning basically the same rotation that was statistically ranked as the best rotation in the NL for ERA the final two months of 2012. Will that continue and carry over to 2013?
You can never have enough pitching. Injuries or setbacks can cripple a rotation. I'm anxious to see what this group can accomplish in 2013. I'm also very encouraged by the group that is on the verge of helping out. The pitching looks good on paper, but it is what they do on the field that will tell the story, not an opinion from 680. He may have been trying to be controversial to stimulate his audience and light the phones up. Or maybe he believes what he said. He won't have long to go to find out. Baseball is upon us.
MLB Consequently, the Braves rotation has been overlooked and deemed suspect by those who see some weakness at the back end. But as Tim Hudson and the rest of Atlanta's starting pitchers prepare for the upcoming season, they understand that they could heavily influence the team's goal to reach the World Series.
"I think our rotation might fly a little bit under the radar, and I think we're better than what most people are giving us credit for," Hudson said. "If everything goes well and everybody stays healthy, I think we potentially can be really good. We need some guys to take another step forward."
Hudson stands as the undisputed leader of Atlanta's relatively inexperienced starting rotation. With 405 career starts, he has totaled more than 100 starts more than the combined total of each of the other four projected starting pitchers. That is also nearly 200 more than the rotation's second-most experienced member, Paul Maholm, whose resume includes 216 career starts.
With Hudson, Maholm, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran, the rotation has the potential to be quite successful. But much of that potential will be influenced by whether Medlen and Minor are capable of repeating last year's second-half success.
Medlen was baseball's most dominant starter for a long period of time last season, as he posted a 0.97 ERA in the 12 starts he made after transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. Minor produced the third-best ERA among all big leaguers dating back to July 1. And Teheran is just one year removed from being considered one of the game's elite pitching prospects.
If all three pitchers prove effective, the Atlanta rotation could prove to be quite deep. But it is impossible to overlook the fact that not one of these three pitchers has made more than 55 starts in their career. In fact, Minor is the only member of this trio to total more than 30.
"We're obviously counting on some young guys to continue to grow and develop," Braves general manager Frank Wren said. "But we feel good about the where we are pitching-wise."
The Braves will enter this season with essentially the same rotation they possessed after acquiring Maholm from the Cubs just before last year's Trade Deadline. The difference is Teheran will replace a pair of injury-plagued pitchers in Ben Sheets and Tommy Hanson, who were easily the rotation's weakest links when they were healthy enough to pitch after August's arrival.
Despite the struggles Sheets and Teheran experienced, Braves starters combined to lead the National League with a 2.67 ERA during the season's final two months. The Phillies ranked second with a 3.27 mark.
The staff's overall success was aided by Minor's impressive midseason turnaround, as he compiled a 6.20 ERA through June and posted a 2.21 ERA during the season's final three months.
"I don't know if we really have a number five guy in our rotation," Hudson said. "I think we have some guys who can pitch ahead of that spot from a talent standpoint. Do we have a shutdown number one guy? That remains to be seen. But I think we have some guys who can beat anybody."
Targeted to be the fifth starter, Teheran saw his status as one of the game's top prospects tarnished last year when he posted a 5.08 ERA in 26 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett. But the mechanical adjustments he made late in the season proved effective, as he posted a 3.23 ERA in seven starts during the Dominican Winter League. The 22-year-old hurler allowed just two hits while completing 16 2/3 scoreless innings over his final three starts.
"We need him to take what he has been able to do in the Minor Leagues and winter ball and bring it to the big leagues," Wren said. "If he does that, we'll be in great shape."
While Teheran is just beginning his career, the 37-year-old Hudson is at least approaching the end of his own. At the same time, he is still proving to be one of the game's most dependable starting pitchers. Dating back to 2010 -- his first full season back from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery -- Hudson has gone 49-26 with a 3.19 ERA. Roy Halladay is the only National League pitcher with more wins (51) during this stretch.
"We've got Tim Hudson leading us and we all know what he can do," Braves closer Craig Kimbrel said. "He goes out there and wins 15-plus games a year. We all saw what Kris [Medlen] did at the end of last year."
While there are some questions about how some of the rotation's more inexperienced members might perform, there is no question the Braves' rotation will gain value from the veteran presence Hudson will provide.
"I think you have to have it," Wren said. "You have to have somebody who can speak from experience about the highs and lows. You want them to be able to keep everyone grounded and help them through those rough times. Huddy is the true leader of our pitching staff without a doubt."
Last edited 2/24/2013 9:07 AM by PatioDaddio
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Posted: 2/24/2013 9:13 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
The Braves' rotation has a world of potential, but describing them as the "most complete" is bit much. Last year we had zero starters top 180 IP (though Maholm got there overall). There are real questions here; every guy in the rotation has something to prove this year:
Hudson - Is this the year he realizes he is old? Medlen - Can he show that last year wasn't a fluke? Minor - Which version are we getting this year? Maholm - For an IP eater-type, he hasn't hit 200 IP since 2008. Can he be more than a 1-2 WAR guy? Teheran - Can he finally make the jump? Were his struggles based on the mechanical tinkering? Can he develop the breaking ball enough to complete his repertoire?
And honestly, we have a pretty bad track record with keeping our SP healthy. Hudson, Medlen, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, etc. All these guys have had serious injuries since joining our rotation. Odds are at least one of our guys is going down this year, too.
I think we should be cautiously optimistic, not beating our chests.
"If someone asked me what color are starbursts I'd say they're clear/white." "banana ice cream [...] a great filling breakfast"
- Zito
Last edited 2/24/2013 9:13 AM by Metaphysicist
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Posted: 2/24/2013 9:22 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
I'm a Braves fan and optimistic about the team and rotation. But I can see what I would call the "reasonable pessimist's" case against the rotation.
Hudson turns 38 in July. His velocity was down a tick last season. His strikeout rate was the lowest since joining the Braves. His groundball percentage was the lowest since joining the Braves. This deterioration in his peripherals was masked by a BABIP and HR/fly ball rate below his career averages. Also he is pitching with bone spurs in his ankles, which might become an issue this year as it was last year.
Minor had a terrific turnaround in the second half of last year. But a significant part of that was luck, as he put up BABIPs of .191, .270 and .162 in the last three months of the season. That is simply not going to continue to happen. During the second half, Minor started throwing more breaking balls and fewer changeups. We can expect the league to make an adjustment in turn which will take away some of his new success.
Maholm had a career year at the age of 30 in 2012. He put up career-best strikeout rates and a near career-best walk rate. He has obviously matured as a pitcher and will be effective against bottom half lineups. But with the kind of stuff he has, we shouldn't hope for much against the stronger lineups of the playoff contending teams.
Medlen was lights out last year. A reasonable pessimist would acknowledge he is a very good starting pitcher, maybe one of the best. But he is not the very best and certainly not the very best in the game's recent history, which means there is likely to be some regression from last year.
Teheran was mediocre in AAA last year. The signs of life late last season and in winter ball came from a very small sample of half a dozen or so games. Should more weight be given to those than his overall 2012 performance. A reasonable pessimist would give more weight to the overall 2012 performance, even with the information about the tinkering that was done and then reversed with his mechanics.
Depth is an issue. Until Beachy returns, Gilmartin is the guy who would have to step in if someone needed to be replaced. And although the success rate for TJ surgery is now quite high, we still can't say for sure Beachy will be his old self or not encounter some setbacks that would delay his return.
My view is that starting pitching is the most likely mid-season acquisition that Frank Wren will have to make this year. Someone in our rotation is likely to falter or get hurt. Maybe two someones. I think we'll be trading for someone like Shields, Lester or Burnett at some point in June or July. Wren has been smart to hold on to the spare $9 million or so he has in payroll. He won't have to ask the other team to pay part of the player's salary since the 9 mill will cover the remaining salary of any of these guys.
Last edited 2/24/2013 9:26 AM by nsacpi
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Posted: 2/24/2013 9:35 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
I was listening to 680 the fan last night driving home....around 7:30pm and (maybe someone can tell me whose show is usually on at that time) but the host was talking about the team to beat in the NL. Like most for some reason it's the Nationals according to him.
Since the Nats finished atop the NL East they are the team to beat in the NL East. The Dodgers are spending their way towards what may be a very nice season. The Yankees and Red Sox have both proven that concept works as well as fails.
I have not heard a Braves official say this publically, but I'm sure this is their intent. The Braves intent is to field an offense that is young, athletic, mostly fast, powerful, can beat you in many different ways, will score lotsa runs, hit a lot of doubles and home runs, and run a pitching staff out there that won't need to throw a shutout every trip to the mound.
When you look at what each player is capable of on paper the offensive team as a whole looks absolutely potentially destructive. Couple that with the potential of the rotation along with the talent in the bullpen and it should cause some optimism for Braves fans, even the most cynical, negative or the downright overall hater.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 10:37 AM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Braves do not have a top starting rotation. Thats find though. THey have the best bullpen and defense. They also might have one of the best offenses in baseball. I'm ok with this. We just need innings eaters and I think we have that. Plus, Medlen will be a top 10 pitcher this year. That always helps.
_______________________________________________________________________________
"No more questions for you bro!.....TROLL" - Russell Westbrook
"I don't want to be categorized." - Colin Kaepernick
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Posted: 2/24/2013 11:26 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
I think this rotation is absolutely being overlooked. I'm convinced this will be one of the better rotations in baseball.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 11:36 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
For that to happen we need health, Minor and Medlen to be close to second half versions all year, and Malholm and Tehran to be close to Malholm's level last year. I think the rotation is solid. If Tehran steps up we don't have a let down guy like we had with JJ last year. That said I think Tehran's starts are going to be 4-5 innings + 2 innings of Martinez. emk418 wrote: I think this rotation is absolutely being overlooked. I'm convinced this will be one of the better rotations in baseball.
Refuse to accept the status quo-Wolfpack Unlimited
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Posted: 2/24/2013 11:39 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Our rotation (and lack of depth) is potentially a huge weakness. It could completely ruin the season. We need an addition or three.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 11:47 AM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Lack of depth? Wen Beachy comes back we have Teheran, Gilmartin, and Graham with CMart available for spot starts. I'm not saying there aren't better rotations because there are, but not many teams if any can match our depth. Lets not forget that with having these prospects just about ready plus money to play with, we can trade for a top SP at the deadline if needed.
--------------------------------------------- --- Dalyn wrote:
Our rotation (and lack of depth) is potentially a huge weakness. It could completely ruin the season. We need an addition or three.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 11:59 AM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Last year we had more depth: Beachy, Hudson, Medlen, JJ, Hanson, Delgado, Minor, Teheran were all contenders in spring training. There were more question marks last year regarding the health/effectiveness of Hudson, JJ and Hanson. There were even some doubts Medlen could handle the load of starting for the entire season. We needed more options given these uncertainties.
This year we have fewer options but also fewer question marks. I think we'll be fine. But I do worry a little about having Gilmartin being our main source of depth until Beachy comes back.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:04 PM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
The depth is not there. We have six guys for the five spots this year nad Gilmartin needs some more time in AAA. Teheran is unproven although I think he will do well. Fans are right to be concerned over the depth. Its an issue until Beachy comes back.
_______________________________________________________________________________
"No more questions for you bro!.....TROLL" - Russell Westbrook
"I don't want to be categorized." - Colin Kaepernick
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:28 PM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Overrated? I know myself and I've seen quite a few others express concern over our rotation and exactly what to expect. There's no sure ace, a lot of tossups week to week on what they'll do... Definitely a question mark
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:36 PM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Rotation is easily Top 10. Potential for Top 5 if things go extremely well. But more likely top 10. We don't have the Top 3 that the Philles and Nats have but I like our 4-5 pitchers better. I don't see Haren staying healthy all year and I'll take Maholm over Detwiller.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:43 PM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
thethe wrote: Braves do not have a top starting rotation. Thats find though. THey have the best bullpen and defense. They also might have one of the best offenses in baseball. I'm ok with this. We just need innings eaters and I think we have that. Plus, Medlen will be a top 10 pitcher this year. That always helps. Pitching and defense wins championships. We probably have a top defense (if Simmons stays healthy). But a vast majority of our innings are going to be thrown with more questions then answers. Yeah if everyone works out in the rotation we're good. But more then likely they won't all work out. We haven't had a healthy and all 5 guys performing at or exceeding their potential since....What, the big 3? I don't see why that will change this year. The rotation is on paper....Underwhelming to say the least.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:38 PM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Just take a glance at last year. If THAT happens again, we are doomed (outside of a huge trade). Now take a glance at every other year. If the normal happens, we are still in trouble. Those 3 (3 potential options is terrible depth) would possibly be okay for a spot start here and there. None of them are ready to take a spot in the rotation for an extended period. We had TEN different pitchers make starts last year (4 of those are no longer on the team). Think about that. emk418 wrote: Lack of depth? Wen Beachy comes back we have Teheran, Gilmartin, and Graham with CMart available for spot starts. I'm not saying there aren't better rotations because there are, but not many teams if any can match our depth. Lets not forget that with having these prospects just about ready plus money to play with, we can trade for a top SP at the deadline if needed.
--------------------------------------------- --- Dalyn wrote:
Our rotation (and lack of depth) is potentially a huge weakness. It could completely ruin the season. We need an addition or three.
---------------------------------------------
Last edited 2/24/2013 3:39 PM by Dalyn
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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:54 PM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
14 conf champs in a row and 1 World Series, with the best pitching staff in the modern era during that time. Ummmm, I don't think so, look at the pass winners, none of those pitching staffs were great, decent but not great. Washington, by some people on this board think they are better than slice bread, didn't make it and even with Strasburg wouldn't have won. Saying pitching wins championships is bogus, you need every thing to click right. 1Cocoplz wrote: Pitching and defense wins championships.
To be the man, you have to beat the man and so far I am undefeated.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:56 PM
Re: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Washington can lose Gio for 50 games and Strasburg to injury (I see that happening, calling it right now). It is a dice roll on rotations, we have the advantage of having more than other teams in our division and in the league. Dalyn wrote: Just take a glance at last year. If THAT happens again, we are doomed (outside of a huge trade). Now take a glance at every other year. If the normal happens, we are still in trouble. Those 3 (3 potential options is terrible depth) would possibly be okay for a spot start here and there. None of them are ready to take a spot in the rotation for an extended period. We had TEN different pitchers make starts last year (4 of those are no longer on the team). Think about that. emk418 wrote: Lack of depth? Wen Beachy comes back we have Teheran, Gilmartin, and Graham with CMart available for spot starts. I'm not saying there aren't better rotations because there are, but not many teams if any can match our depth. Lets not forget that with having these prospects just about ready plus money to play with, we can trade for a top SP at the deadline if needed.
--------------------------------------------- --- Dalyn wrote:
Our rotation (and lack of depth) is potentially a huge weakness. It could completely ruin the season. We need an addition or three.
---------------------------------------------
To be the man, you have to beat the man and so far I am undefeated.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 4:20 PM
RE: Is the Braves Starting Pitching Rotation Overrated?
Washington has a rookie middle reliever named Christian Garcia whose pretty amazing and the org wants to stretch him out to be a starter. I imagine he's Washingtons insurance policy until Garcias arm falls off,
Mets have a really good staff. Thier front five is projected to pitch better than the Braves front five. (The projected RA on that BP pecota projections someone just posted in another thread). They have Wheeler in the minors who projects to be an ace.
Braves are deeper and like AA said its all a roll of the dice.
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