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Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
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Posted: 1/31/2013 11:48 PM
Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
Interesting read,
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/25/3915446/cat z-corner-did-the-braves-actually-get-worse
Don't think anyone's brought this up yet. Please discuss. I will reserve my opinion for there are so many smarter people than me on this board.
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Posted: 1/31/2013 11:49 PM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
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Posted: 1/31/2013 11:53 PM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
I just skimmed it, but I think the logic to this article is flawed. We were going to lose Chipper and Bourn regardless, and I think J Upton and Johnson are definitely an upgrade to Prado.
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Posted: 1/31/2013 11:58 PM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
i stopped reading here: "When the Braves signed Justin Upton yesterday"
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:05 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
crump7 wrote: i stopped reading here: "When the Braves signed Justin Upton yesterday" 
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:05 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
trippingchris wrote: I just skimmed it, but I think the logic to this article is flawed. We were going to lose Chipper and Bourn regardless, and I think J Upton and Johnson are definitely an upgrade to Prado. The point of article is 2012 Braves v. 2013 Braves. It's arguable at least. He's not arguing that 2012 Braves, had it stayed intact, would've been better than the CURRENT 2013 Braves. He's simply saying Prado + Jones + Bourn 2012 seasons are NOT replaced by Upton, Upton, Johnson/Francisco 2013. The logic isn't so flawed I think. At the very least, an interesting read.
Last edited 2/1/2013 12:05 AM by JCbravos
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:33 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
I suppose you could make that argument if you're ignorant enough to strictly look at Chipper/Prado/Bourn 2012 vs Upton/Upton/Francisco/Johnson 2012 and ignore everything else.
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:45 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
Lost my atention by linking to Fangraphs.
Kelly Johnson? Utley-like IMO.
Last edited 2/1/2013 12:46 AM by Knucksie
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:56 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
Are Hanson and JJ still ganna be in the rotation for the first half of 2013 instead of Maholom and Medlen? Is Walden not going to pitch for us this year? Is Minor likely to struggle as bad as he did in the first half last year? Should we expect Uggla and Mac to have the worst year of their career again? Is it not reasonable to believe Heyward and Freeman improve? Are we starting Pastor at ss for half the season again? Its so much more than Johnson and the Uptons against Chipper, Prado, and Bourn. Also I expect Justin to blossom and make this years group even better than last years...
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Posted: 2/1/2013 12:58 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
I feel like this is poorly written and illogical. This "author" fails to mention the garbage production of of Janish/Pastonricky for most the season. If Simmons can simple maintain some form of continued existence he will be better than those two.
Freeman is likely to improve. Losing Hanson's "production" does not hurt. Simply tallying the WAR for 6 players is really as close to analysis as my humming is to an opera.
As much as I like WAR, I still realize it is an imperfect tool. Prado, Heyward, and Bourn garnered significant value from the defensive portion of this stat. DWar is particulary finicky. A defensive OF of Heyward, Upton, Upton, may not result in as high of a defensive WAR as our trio last year, but I don't believe actual losses will be near as significant ad numbers may lead us to believe. Our OF defense may in fact take a hit, but our overal offense should be a good bit better. I feel as though this will translate, depending on some luck of course, to a similar amount of, if not more overall actual wins.
Last edited 2/1/2013 1:00 AM by OklahomaBrave
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Posted: 2/1/2013 2:29 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
Stopped reading by the first paragraph because it looked like a 12-year old had written it.
2012. The year 94 wins and the 3rd best record in the league means sitting at home in October.
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Posted: 2/1/2013 8:08 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
tamahawkchop10 wrote: Are Hanson and JJ still ganna be in the rotation for the first half of 2013 instead of Maholom and Medlen? Is Walden not going to pitch for us this year? Is Minor likely to struggle as bad as he did in the first half last year? Should we expect Uggla and Mac to have the worst year of their career again? Is it not reasonable to believe Heyward and Freeman improve? Are we starting Pastor at ss for half the season again? Its so much more than Johnson and the Uptons against Chipper, Prado, and Bourn. Also I expect Justin to blossom and make this years group even better than last years... Exactly!
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Posted: 2/1/2013 8:17 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
I actually don't think our OF defense takes a hit. As Wren has repeatedly stated, he questions defensive stats, and our scouts and others around baseball think B.J. is in the same ballpark as Mike Bourn. He's certainly a similarly good athlete.
Upton is a better athlete than Prado, and probably a similar defender.
My concern is the Upton's offense, more than their defense.
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Posted: 2/1/2013 8:53 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
Seems more like wishful thinking from a Phillies fan.
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:02 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
ProbationDeac wrote: Seems more like wishful thinking from a Phillies fan. Even if we had gotten worse, the Phillies still aren't good enough to have take advantage of it. |
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:13 AM
Re: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
No, for the simple reason that both Heyward and Justin Upton are primed to take big steps forward this year. Even taking out of consideration the rest of the lineup, they could both have monster years and carry the offense. And, as others have mentioned, a full year of Simmons and the likelihood that Minor has now figured it out help a ton and aren't really considered here. |
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:14 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
However it was written, it does bring up good points.
Braves lost Hanson, Jurrjens, Ross, Prado, Chipper, Bourn
Replaced with Laird, Maholm, Teheran, Upton, Upton, C. Johnson, Walden
The addition of the Uptons is great, but on the other side the loss of those 3 everyday players is a feat to overcome.
For the Braves to be better than last year, everything has to go right in the rotation, and need some improvment from McCann and Uggla
"A coach has more to do with an NFL teams success than a QB" "I'd rather live in upstate Ny than Southern Cal -----ZITOED! |
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:20 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
gilesfan wrote: However it was written, it does bring up good points.
Braves lost Hanson, Jurrjens, Ross, Prado, Chipper, Bourn
Replaced with Laird, Maholm, Teheran, Upton, Upton, C. Johnson, Walden
The addition of the Uptons is great, but on the other side the loss of those 3 everyday players is a feat to overcome.
For the Braves to be better than last year, everything has to go right in the rotation, and need some improvment from McCann and Uggla I pointed this out when the trade was made. Just take Prado and C. Johnson out of the equation and it looks a lot better. Though, for the record, Walden is replacing Durbin. Towers had painted himself in a corner with 4 outfielders and burning bridges with Justin Upton. We should have left Prado and C.Johnson out of the deal and given them either O'Flaherty or Venters instead (we're not going to be able to keep both long term anyways). Towers didn't have any other offers on the table close to that, and would have had to eventually cave. We SHOULD have signed Prado to the extension that the D-Backs did, especially with the bump in TV revenue for next season. There's no reason we couldn't have kept everyone.
Last edited 2/1/2013 9:21 AM by gr82bAnAUTiger
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:22 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
gilesfan wrote: However it was written, it does bring up good points.
Braves lost Hanson, Jurrjens, Ross, Prado, Chipper, Bourn
Replaced with Laird, Maholm, Teheran, Upton, Upton, C. Johnson, Walden
The addition of the Uptons is great, but on the other side the loss of those 3 everyday players is a feat to overcome.
For the Braves to be better than last year, everything has to go right in the rotation, and need some improvment from McCann and Uggla J Upton > Chipper B Upton = Bourn Maholm = Hanson Teheran > last year's Jurrjens Obviously there's no one that we brought in after that to compare to Prado, and Laird is not Ross, but you also don't factor in Simmons over Pastornicky/Janish or 2nd half Minor over 1st half Minor, or Medlen in the rotation for a full year. Take into consideration the overall youth of our roster and the likelihood that the progression outweighs any regression, and we should be better than last year. |
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:26 AM
RE: Did the Braves actually get WORSE?
--------------------------------------------- --- gr82bAnAUTiger wrote: gilesfan wrote: However it was written, it does bring up good points.
Braves lost Hanson, Jurrjens, Ross, Prado, Chipper, Bourn
Replaced with Laird, Maholm, Teheran, Upton, Upton, C. Johnson, Walden
The addition of the Uptons is great, but on the other side the loss of those 3 everyday players is a feat to overcome.
For the Braves to be better than last year, everything has to go right in the rotation, and need some improvment from McCann and Uggla I pointed this out when the trade was made. Just take Prado and C. Johnson out of the equation and it looks a lot better. Though, for the record, Walden is replacing Durbin. Towers had painted himself in a corner with 4 outfielders and burning bridges with Justin Upton. We should have left Prado and C.Johnson out of the deal and given them either O'Flaherty or Venters instead (we're not going to be able to keep both long term anyways). Towers didn't have any other offers on the table close to that, and would have had to eventually cave. We SHOULD have signed Prado to the extension that the D-Backs did, especially with the bump in TV revenue for next season. There's no reason we couldn't have kept everyone. --------------------------------------------- What about Heyward, Freeman, Beachy, Medlen, and Kimbrel essentially doubling in cost each year? Would you have signed Prado over keeping that core together? |
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