NT

I'm surprised it's not more like 15 points.
We have no damn defense whatsoever. I still think it remains the worst defense since I have followed the program since 1945.
That includes 1973 and our NCAA "record" 0-13 season.
I mean the last 2 games we give up 91 points? Horrendous.
Navy will school us again I think. It's bad.

.........are scattered at the LV houses.

Seen Navy favored by as low as 7 1/2 and and high as 9 points

Of course, the more, the better, but I like Army on the Money Line.

down to a 7½ pt favorite.

Down to 7 in the AM

You guys are funny. Do you think KN and Navy are adjusting their game plan based on the spread? Just kidding.

Always better to be the underdog.  I can make a good argument for Navy being overrated and us being underrated. 

For those who only look at the record, Navy would appear to be a far better team, but they've struggled to get their wins against some really weak teams this season and lost to a team that they should have beaten fairly easily as well. 

VMI held them to a 3-3 tie in the first quarter and were only down 10 at the half despite losing their starting quarterback in the first quarter, and Navy didn't sew it up until the 21 point 4th quarter when Navy's offense finally wore down the VMI defense.  VMI was one of the worst teams in the FCS this season with a 2-9 record.

But for a couple of fortunate fumble recoveries and several dropped passes that should have been caught, Navy might have lost to Florida Atlantic.  FAU took an early 10-0 lead and generally outplayed Navy most of the game. North Texas is the only FBS team that scored fewer points against FAU than did Navy this year and FAU was a 3-9 team in the weak Sunbelt conference this season. 

Navy didn't look overly impressive against Texas State either, with Texas State dropping a lot of easy passes and making some apparently bad decisions on offense. Only Idaho and Houston scored fewer points against Texas State than Navy. 

Troy (5-7 overall and 7th place in the Sunbelt) beat Navy fairly decisively. Navy's point production against Troy just equalled the average number of points scored against them all season, while Troy scored 10 more points than their season average against Navy. 

All four of those games should have been fairly easy wins for Navy.  At the same time Navy's losses to ND and Penn State were to be expected, and they did have a couple of impressive wins as well.  

I didn't see the ECU game, but apparently it was Navy's best game of the season against a good ECU team.  The game against Indiana was a nail biter, and Indiana generally outplayed Navy most of the game, although they appeared not to be prepared to defend the triple option.  Can't take it away from Navy for pulling that one out in the end, though.   The same can be said for the Air Force game, where AF turned it over three times and missed two field goals to let Navy stay in the game during regulation play.  The winning TD was a recovered fumble by the center in the end zone after Reynolds muffed the snap.  Sometimes things just go your way.     

A lot has been made of the improvement in the Navy offense since they replaced Miller with Reynolds, and there is probably an element of truth to that, but it's also true that Reynolds had the far easier part of the schedule.   Miller started against ND, Penn State, VMI, San Jose State, and AFA, while Reynolds started against Central Michigan, Indiana, ECU, Troy, Texas State, and FAU.  With the notable exception of ECU, Navy scored fewer points than the average allowed by each of those teams Reynolds started against this season.   

Another partial truth is the alleged big turnaround in fumbles.  It's quite true that Navy has turned the ball over less since Reyolds took over at QB, but that's in large part due to the fact that Navy has done a better job of recovering its fumbles since Reynolds took over.  Navy has fumbled the ball twice in 4 of the 6 games that Reynolds has started with ECU being the only fumble free game they've played.  Of Navy's 22 fumbles this season, 9 have been when Reynolds was playing.  Seven of those by Miller were against ND and Penn State which were more likely to be forced.  Reynolds hangs onto the ball better than Miller, but he tends to make bad pitches at times.         

Navy has a better passing game (although only 40 yards more per game than ours), and Reynolds appears to be a much better passer than Steelman.  His pass efficiency rating is an impressive 167, which appears to be a significant improvement over Miller's 108 rating until you note that Miller actually has the higher completion percentage.  The difference is that Reynolds has thrown more TD passes and fewer interceptions than Miller.  A large part of Navy's greater success in the passing game is that they have better receivers in Greene, Turner, Lynch and Bolena, who have made Reynolds look good with great catches on several occasions.  Reynolds has been very good at hitting his receivers downfield after the play action got them open, and his receivers have been very good at making some difficult catches as well.  Nonetheless, Navy does not rely on their passing game much more than we do and rely on their running game to set it up and vice versa.    

Navy finished the season strongly, Plain and the Temple loss is the last Army performance the oddsmakers have to work with.

mnagy wrote: You guys are funny. Do you think KN and Navy are adjusting their game plan based on the spread? Just kidding.

What I would hope for is that some of the Navy players will have the same attitude that Means had coming into our game against AF.  He expressed great confidence in AF's superiority prior to the game and had to eat crow after.  It's seldom the coaches that don't take their opponents seriously, but sometimes players buy into what the media has to say about the game.

a bit high to encourage early betting on Army bringing the line down nearer to where it probably should be. Of couirse none of that matters Saturday afternoon once the game starts, except I think most fans, including non-bettors, enjoy upsets more since they are by definition, unexpected.

Ah stats! You can't beat stats!
Did you ever notice whan Navy is the favorite , they beat Army almost ALWAYS.
When Army has been the favorite, Navy almost ALWAYS wins.
The problem is Army hasn't been the favorite lately.
Therefore, Navy will win.
Whether Navy is or is not the favorite, they usually win anyway.
So why issue odds?

I'm sure BeatNavy never said exactly that.  That's your distortion of what he's said.

They don't set lines high or low to attract betting.  They set the line which will acheive equal betting on both sides.  When they get overloaded one way or another------they adjust the line to try to even out their books.

RABBLE wrote: Did you ever notice whan Navy is the favorite , they beat Army almost ALWAYS.
When Army has been the favorite, Navy almost ALWAYS wins.

If that was true, then the series record would not be as close as it is.  Despite Navy's winning streak, their lead in the series is only seven.

on Army.

plain wrote: on Army.

  Plain------re-read your first sentence.  You suggested that they set the line high at first to encourage Army betting.  Why would they start out by encouraging ANY side to start with??  Makes no sense.

There's a facet of this which you don't get.  Linesmakers-------and as I've mentioned-----I was one once-----are always afraid of what's know as a middle.  Setting the line at 9 and getting Army money-----then lowering to 7 and 1/2 and perhaps attracting Navy money from the very same sharp bettors.

If Navy wins by 8--------they've caught you for both wagers with only the risk of losing the juice on any other result.

Line moves only happen when necessary.

Army will win.

period.

Sure hope.

You're right.

Guys, it's Army/Navy.  Records dont matter one bit.  Cant wait for the game.  If we show up like we did at AF we win.  If we lose the turnover battle we lose.

If we avoid turnovers and offensive penalties, Army has a very good chance to win. Our offense moved the ball on them the last 2years, and it is much more prolific this season. Of course, they will move the ball too.

Army 27, Navy 24