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As we dissect and focus on Air Force’s opening win versus Nevada on the start of MWC conference play Wednesday night, equally big and bigger games loom on the horizon. Air Force travels to the fabled Thomas&Mack Center in Las Vegas to face UNLV and the Running Rebels then continue on the road up I-25 to face the CSU Rams. Both teams have shown themselves to be big and athletic and have played high RPI schedules out-of-conference and come in as favorites to do well in the MWC and head to the NCAA’s. Air Force on the other hand, is a team that continues to get little respect in publications and on fan forums (which are nothing but opinions) starting the season ranked at the bottom of the MWC and many making comments such as “Nevada lost their opener at Air Force” versus giving the Falcons credit for “The play of Air Force beat Nevada”. It’s all semantics but it may play in the minds of players and teams alike as the season continues.
Air Force versus UNLV is set up as a trap game for both teams but more so for the Rebels. Air Force comes into this game as decided underdogs as they will in most all games in conference play, at least early in the season. No expectations for the Falcons except to go out and play their best. The trap for Air Force is that UNLV is coming off a loss to NM at the Pit in their opening game, plays Air Force in their only home game in a four game stretch and probably losing their national ranking prior to this game. But UNLV faces some demons for themselves as they head in to this game on Saturday. “It’s Air Force” that is coming to Vegas and has been marked as a ‘W’ in the win/loss column as a sure win since the schedule was released. After a loss to NM I do not think that Coach Rice will let his players overlook the Falcons, but the players see the name Air Force as a win and then see their next game at #16 SDSU then at 12-2 Colorado State. Could UNLV overlook the Falcons? Can Air Force play tough at the Thomas&Mack? I believe ‘yes and yes’ could be the answer.
Each season we can pick two or three teams that should dominate Air Force when comparing teams on paper. This year is no exception but with the addition that it is more likely that almost all teams in the MWC can top us in physical qualities when comparing players. UNLV fits that mold is so many ways with the returners they have and the recruiting class they have this year. Coach Rice has built himself a team on paper that is the envy of many in the nation, now it is upon him, his staff and the players to put it together on the hardwood.
While UNLV has three returning seniors and junior Moser who skipped the draft and returned for this season, they only started one senior in their loss at NM. Moser, who has been hampered by his wrist injury, played in his first game off the bench for only 14 minutes and 3 points and is obviously still working on recovery and team play. Tough break for the young man who was most likely a sure fire NBA draft selection last spring (projected second round). It will be interesting to see if he continues to get minutes versus Air Force to prep for the big meeting with SDSU or if he will continue to just play a backup role. Senior Anthony Marshall (6’3’/200#/G) is averaging 10ppg but is controlling the offense with 5 assists per game. He drives and he shoots the three ball at 42%. Senior Justin Hawkins (6’3’/190#/G) gives energy, 7ppg in 24mpg and shoot the three at 36%.
The two players Air Force must be largely concerned with are true freshman and top 10 recruit Anthony Bennett and sophomore transfer Khem Birch. Bennett (6’8’/240#/F) plays inside and out with 19.4ppg, 9 rpg and who shoots the three 39% (19-48) for the season. Birch, still rough after time off not playing last semester, brings size and length 10ppg in 23mpg and 6.7rpg. This is the test for Air Force. Take this team and match them up man for man with #9 Florida and you see a very similar team. It was the Florida big men that physically ran down Air Force in the final 16 minutes of their matchup. Many forget how well the Falcons played in that game finding themselves only down by 1 at that 16 minutes remaining mark. Florida made a concerted effort to go inside big and hard and actually did that on both ends of the court, trying to deny the Falcons the lane on defense and using their two bigs in and near the rim. I expect the same thought process with UNLV. Comparing UNLV with Florida you will see two similar teams in makeup and players, but a more organized offensive flow and system with the Gators. This can be both good and bad. With an organized team you know what to expect now you must practice and do exactly that to stop them. But with a team less organized (in this case suggesting UNLV) you may not get the offensive efficiency but you get the ‘chaos effect’ of not knowing what to expect. UNLV has the tendency to be more free flowing with their offense with the go ahead to do whatever needs to be done and maybe not within the system. Third newcomer on their team is highly recruited true freshman guard Katin Reinhardt (6’5’/210#) who gives 10ppg in 28mpg, almost 3 apg and 34% from the arc. Backup Thomas (6’8’/245#/Sr) and Lopez-Sosa (6’11’/220#/Jr) give them excellent bigs as backups off the bench.
A statistical look at the teams:
AF FG 48.4% 3pt 40.1% FT 68.0% Reb 31 (8.2 off) Assts 16 TPG 11 SPG 8
UNLV FG 45.2% 3pt 35.0% FT 71.2% Reb 42 (13.3off) Assts 18 TPG 15 SPG
Numbers that jump out for UNLV is their obvious rebounding edge overall and on the offensive glass. In addition, as an uptempo team they will dish on the fast break and/or go inside and share well with 18 assists per game. They do turn it over due to their intensity but make that up with the rebounding. UNLV will push and press Air Force the entire game. I expect a similar press we saw from Florida and Nevada using full court pressure. It will be interesting to see the half-court defense they will use, generally an aggressive man-to-man versus the Air Force offense. Their offense will follow their name. They will attempt to create an uptempo flow throughout the game in transition. Then I expect them to try to force themselves into the lane and use their bigs against the much smaller AF team.
Key’s for Air Force to win this game:
1) Biggest is to just play Air Force ball as a team. Do not let UNLV dictate the tempo or the style of play. Air Force has successfully handled the press and must get to the half court and then get into the offense. And the big part of this key is to ‘run’ the offense, not just go through the motion.
2) A picture is worth a thousand words and we saw it in the Nevada game. We must run the offense and must take it into the lane no matter how big and strong UNLV is. First half of that game the Falcons were not aggressive and did not strive to go inside. The second half, even against a bigger and stronger team, they ran the offense both against the zone and man defense going to the lane in cuts with screens, got the ball with shots to the rim or an excellent kickout for the three point shot resulting in the excellent three point shooting percentage in the final statistics.
3) Must negate the rebounding edge that UNLV will most likely have. Use that position and block out to the best of their ability. They do not have to win the board battle but must keep it to manageable numbers, especially offensive rebounds for the Rebels.
4) Keep getting at least two Falcons who get into the comfortable position of successfully shooting both inside the lane or outside the arc. It may be Mike Lyons with his average, it might be Fitz getting another career high 30pts as last night, it might be Todd directing the offense and finding ways to score. And find those points off the bench. Getting more and more important each game.
5) Get the shots, get the foul and make the FT’s.
This is the first of many big games for the Falcons. All eyes are on UNLV to win and move on to #16 San Diego State. Air Force must just play Falcon basketball knowing there is no pressure on them other to play as a team and do their best. Time to surprise the MWC.
Upcoming MWC Play 1/12/2013
Air Force (9-4) at #24 UNLV (13-3) 8pm MDT
Fresno St (6-8) at #25 NM (14-2) 1pm MDT
CSU (13-2) at #16 SDSU (13-2) 6pm MDT
Wyoming (13-1) at Nevada (9-6) 4pm MDT
GO FALCONS, BEAT UNLVMatchup Edge
| AIRFC | Edge in: | UNLV |
 | Points/Game |  |
| Field Goal % | |
| Free Throw % | |
| Defense | |
| Rebounding | |
| Turnovers | |
| Bench | |
- Statistics
*Overall | In-Depth |
Off | For | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 71.9
76.7 | 47.7
44.7 | 40.3
34.4 | 69.3
71.6 | 26.9
37.5 |
Def | Aga | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 68.3
64.8 | 46.4
38.0 | 35.7
29.3 | 71.1
69.0 | 29.2
30.0 |
-
*Home/Away | In-Depth
|
Off | For | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 70.0
81.2 | 45.1
46.2 | 39.6
33.8 | 73.5
75.3 | 23.2
39.2 |
Def | Aga | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 75.8
63.3 | 51.0
35.0 | 50.0
27.8 | 73.8
75.9 | 32.5
28.7 |
-
*Last 5 | In-Depth
|
Off | For | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 66.6
76.0 | 43.8
47.9 | 38.0
37.4 | 75.7
69.2 | 27.6
36.2 |
Def | Aga | FG% | 3P% | FT% | Reb |
AIRFC
UNLV | 67.2
66.6 | 46.2
39.7 | 40.2
33.7 | 72.8
64.2 | 27.8
28.6 |
- .
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