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Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
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Posted: 10/02/2012 9:46 AM
Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
Thought this article was really interesting. Most interesting was the amount of losing the bottom market teams do on a regular basis. It is not that suprising, but it just shows how stacked the Major League Baseball System is against small market teams. Yeah, as the article states, small market teams can make the playoffs and occassionally win, but the majority of seasons, losing records are the norm. Check out the number of years the Rockies, the Indians, the Brewers, the Rays, the A's, the Royals, etc... have lost in the timeframes he gives. That was staggering to me and even though I always knew the deck was stacked against small market teams, I did not think it was THAT bad but the results are the results. This is mostly a losing battle from a Pirate fans standpoint. http://www.piratesprospects.co...eans-to-me.html
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Posted: 10/02/2012 3:19 PM
Re: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
I would like to see a chart showing how many days the fans of each MLB team have been able to watch their team play during the last 2 months of each season over the last 20 years with that team being 5 games or more over .500.
Then, add a column that shows the average payroll of each team over that period. Hmmm...I wonder if there would be a correlation between the two.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 7:21 AM
Re: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
Katoy and I are on extreme opposite ends of this but, baseball won't be as fair across the board until it's run like the NFL in terms of a cap and revenue sharing.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 8:53 AM
Re: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
I totally agree with you.
Yes, there are windows where if you do everything correct you can win for a couple of years. But it is impossible to do over the long haul as a small market team. Just look at the amount of losing seasons the article shows the small market teams having in the last 20 years. The majority of years are losing years. TBayXXXVII wrote: Katoy and I are on extreme opposite ends of this but, baseball won't be as fair across the board until it's run like the NFL in terms of a cap and revenue sharing.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 9:02 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
It's not about being fair. You don't need it to be fair to win. You just have to be smarter, creative and set the trend and not follow the trend.
That is why Tampa Bay and Oakland have been able to compete even with payrolls that are in the bottom of all of baseball.
That is the main reason why you need a manager that embraces new school thinking and will implement innovative theories. Tampa Bay starts doing extreme shifting consistently and the rest of the league eventually follows. Tampa Bay pretty much ruined the career of Ricky Romero by using an innovative strategy against him. Romero started the year 8-1 but Tampa Bay used a rather unique strategy of stacking the lineup with left handed hitters against the left handed pitcher because they had noticed particular issues through breaking down stats. Eventually all the other teams in baseball did the same thing and Romero went 1-13 the rest of the season.
The Pirates pretty much rank at the bottom of managerial efficiency through the use of advanced research. They pretty much only use defensive shading. If the 200 million dollar payroll Yankees can implement defensive shifts I think it's a joke that the Pirates don't. It has a big effect on particular players. Mark Teixiera is no longer the same player because of it. He went from a .300 hitter to a .250 hitter simply because of the defensive shift. That is a 30 hit difference over a 600 at bat season. If the research is out there showing that it works it's foolish not to use it. It won't work all the time but it will work a lot of the time.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 9:33 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
Yeah a small market team can win if everything is perfect. And even at that, the window is small. Tampa lost for 10 straight seasons before winning the last 5.
Oakland has lost 10 seasons, finished .500 once and had a winning record for 9 seasons in the last 20.
So yes, those two are winning but they are the exceptions. Most small market teams lose and lose regularly.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 9:44 AM
Re: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
You absolutely hit the nail on the head. The way MLB is currently run is a complete disgrace. There is a very good chance the Pirates will never be regularly competitive until this is changed. Unless of course, EVERYTHING goes nearly 100% as planned for the Pirates on a yearly basis. TBayXXXVII wrote: Katoy and I are on extreme opposite ends of this but, baseball won't be as fair across the board until it's run like the NFL in terms of a cap and revenue sharing.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 9:51 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
"You just have to be smarter, creative and set the trend and not follow the trend.
That is why Tampa Bay and Oakland have been able to compete even with payrolls that are in the bottom of all of baseball."
Yup, you basically have to be perfect just to compete, and even then... it's still not good enough. That's why these two teams have combined for a total of 0 playoff series victories over the last 4 years.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 9:56 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
TBayXXXVII wrote: "You just have to be smarter, creative and set the trend and not follow the trend.
That is why Tampa Bay and Oakland have been able to compete even with payrolls that are in the bottom of all of baseball."
Yup, you basically have to be perfect just to compete, and even then... it's still not good enough. That's why these two teams have combined for a total of 0 playoff series victories over the last 4 years. They have lost playoff series for a whole bunch of reasons, but it's not because of their payroll. Some of it is luck, some of it is matchups. There are other factors. but winning 90+ games is no accident. If Tampa wins 95 games in the regular season and New York wins 85, who is the better team? If New York beats Tampa in a 7 game series, who is the better team? You can argue that New York was better in that series, but that doesn't make them the better team, does it?
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Posted: 10/03/2012 10:13 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
dirtyfrankwvu wrote:
TBayXXXVII wrote: "You just have to be smarter, creative and set the trend and not follow the trend.
That is why Tampa Bay and Oakland have been able to compete even with payrolls that are in the bottom of all of baseball."
Yup, you basically have to be perfect just to compete, and even then... it's still not good enough. That's why these two teams have combined for a total of 0 playoff series victories over the last 4 years. They have lost playoff series for a whole bunch of reasons, but it's not because of their payroll. Some of it is luck, some of it is matchups. There are other factors. but winning 90+ games is no accident.
If Tampa wins 95 games in the regular season and New York wins 85, who is the better team?
If New York beats Tampa in a 7 game series, who is the better team? You can argue that New York was better in that series, but that doesn't make them the better team, does it? In a 1-game scenario, any team can win. In a 7-game series, the better team wins all the time, because they are the better team. Bottom line, if you're not going to have an $80M calibre payroll, you're not going to win regularly. Period.
Last edited 10/03/2012 10:15 AM by TBayXXXVII
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Posted: 10/03/2012 10:51 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
Oakland and Tampa were awful because they had horrible decision makers prior to Beane and Freidman getting there.
It's like if the Pirates made the playoffs the next 5 years and then you say well they lost for 20 years before that. Most of that has to do with Dave Littlefield running the show.
Billy Beane showed up in 1998 so it's hard to blame what the team did before on him. Since he's been there he has 10 seasons of .500 or better and 5 seasons below .500 in a 15 year window. He has never had a team lose below 74 games despite always having one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball. He was the first sabrmetric guy and there is no doubt he is the best GM in baseball. Even when he doesn't have a lot to work with he has still gotten much more than anyone could reasonable expect. Going into todays game his record is 1299-1128. Good for a .535 winning percentage
Andrew Friedman was hired in 2005. His first 3 seasons the team won 67, 61 and 66 games. Since then they have won 90 games three times and the other season they won 84. With a win today he would have four 90+ win seasons in the last five years. It took time to get to that point to build up the system but even the Rays system in 2005 was light years better than the Pirates were in 2008 when Huntington took over.
It takes time to build a team and the Pirates have the ability to operate at a much higher payroll than the A's and Rays do. Those teams have extreme attendance problems because of issues with the fan base and low interest in general in the markets. The Pirates are able to draw fans when they win. In a playoff clinching game on Monday night against Texas the A's drew 21,162 fans. They listed that as 60% full but the only reason why it even comes close to that percentage capacity is because they tarp off the majority of the upper deck as the seating capacity is well over 50,000.
The Pirates when they're winning will not have the same issues these teams have. They drew 2 million fans this year and will have the capacity for an 80 million dollar payroll. They still have to be smart about though which is why there is no reason to jump to 80 million dollars now. It needs to happen naturally because you don't want to be paying free agents with that money you want to be extending your own players at the appropriate times.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 11:13 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
There's a difference between being competitive and a contender. I'm not saying that they aren't building teams that can win 85-90 games. What I'm saying is they can't build a team that can contend for a World Series on a regular basis. Sure, once over a 5 to 7 year time frame, they may contend... but in that same 5-7 year time span, the Yankees, Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Braves, Giants, and Dodgers will all have about 4 or more years of conteding for a championship. That's the difference.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 11:36 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
I'm sorry but if you win 90+ games four out of 5 years that is a team capable of contending for a World Series.
Over the last 11 years you have had 9 different World Series winners. Only the Cardinals and Red Sox have won multiple times in that span. Those teams are contending because they're smart. The Rangers were a laughing stock for baseball before they retooled the organization.
You get into the playoffs you have a shot. That is all you can ask for. St. Louis doesn't win the World Series last year without an epic collapse from the Braves. They got in and they won. Heck it was Texas that should of won that World Series.
Pittsburgh is building a team the way Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Oakand are. Build it around young pitching. The Giants make all kinds of awful payroll moves but they have the young pitching to compensate. The Pirates just have to avoid the monster contracts to the Aaron Rowands and Aubbrey Huffs of the world. Avoiding free agency for the most part is the best way to go anyways. The Giants are paying 14 million for Rowand not to play for them. They could also live without the 20 million dollars that they're paying Barry Zito. Stay away from the free agency game and you can compete because that is where the big market teams think they're getting a big advantage but that is really what is holding them down. The Red Sox signings the last few years in Lackey and Crawford have been disastrous.
It will get even easier in the future as a lot more teams will be lowering payroll to avoid luxury tax implications. When Albert Pujols is 36 and dragging down Los Angeles that only further helps Oakland. The best thing St. Louis did was not get caught in the trap and let Pujols sign elsewhere. Minnesota tried to play the game and it showed what can happen. There is nothing wrong with letting a few players leave and go elsewhere. Just do what Tampa Bay does and have internal options that allow you to keep winning and mist importantly get creative and be innovators. Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay have huge advantages over large market teams as well because they can try all kinds of crazy ideas that would have the manager of a big market team fired instantly. Tampa Bays current shortstop is a guy who played RF most of last year.
The problem the Pirates have is they're trying to win the big market way because they have a by the book manager that thinks it's still 1975. You can't beat the Yankees at their own game. Make them play your game though and you always have a chance.
One thing I think Pittsburgh could do is refine how relief pitchers are used. They have a number of guys who are capable of going multiple innings in Morris, Wilson and McPherson. Instead of using them in the typical one inning variety most teams use relievers they should be accustomed to pitching multiple innings at a time. That way instead of getting 70 or so innings out of them you use these guys for 110-120 innings a year. You then make life easier on your starters. They only have to go 6 innings, then you bring in a reliever for two innings and he bridges to the closer. You would likely have higher performances from everyone involved.
Last edited 10/03/2012 11:45 AM by katoy2j
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Posted: 10/03/2012 12:09 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
katoy2j wrote: I'm sorry but if you win 90+ games four out of 5 years that is a team capable of contending for a World Series.
Over the last 11 years you have had 9 different World Series winners. Only the Cardinals and Red Sox have won multiple times in that span. Those teams are contending because they're smart. The Rangers were a laughing stock for baseball before they retooled the organization.
You get into the playoffs you have a shot. That is all you can ask for. St. Louis doesn't win the World Series last year without an epic collapse from the Braves. They got in and they won. Heck it was Texas that should of won that World Series.
Pittsburgh is building a team the way Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Oakand are. Build it around young pitching. The Giants make all kinds of awful payroll moves but they have the young pitching to compensate. The Pirates just have to avoid the monster contracts to the Aaron Rowands and Aubbrey Huffs of the world. Avoiding free agency for the most part is the best way to go anyways. The Giants are paying 14 million for Rowand not to play for them. They could also live without the 20 million dollars that they're paying Barry Zito. Stay away from the free agency game and you can compete because that is where the big market teams think they're getting a big advantage but that is really what is holding them down. The Red Sox signings the last few years in Lackey and Crawford have been disastrous.
It will get even easier in the future as a lot more teams will be lowering payroll to avoid luxury tax implications. When Albert Pujols is 36 and dragging down Los Angeles that only further helps Oakland. The best thing St. Louis did was not get caught in the trap and let Pujols sign elsewhere. Minnesota tried to play the game and it showed what can happen. There is nothing wrong with letting a few players leave and go elsewhere. Just do what Tampa Bay does and have internal options that allow you to keep winning and mist importantly get creative and be innovators. Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay have huge advantages over large market teams as well because they can try all kinds of crazy ideas that would have the manager of a big market team fired instantly. Tampa Bays current shortstop is a guy who played RF most of last year.
The problem the Pirates have is they're trying to win the big market way because they have a by the book manager that thinks it's still 1975. You can't beat the Yankees at their own game. Make them play your game though and you always have a chance.
One thing I think Pittsburgh could do is refine how relief pitchers are used. They have a number of guys who are capable of going multiple innings in Morris, Wilson and McPherson. Instead of using them in the typical one inning variety most teams use relievers they should be accustomed to pitching multiple innings at a time. That way instead of getting 70 or so innings out of them you use these guys for 110-120 innings a year. You then make life easier on your starters. They only have to go 6 innings, then you bring in a reliever for two innings and he bridges to the closer. You would likely have higher performances from everyone involved. I'll do the research on this when I get the chance, later tonight perhaps, but I'm going to make a pre-research assumption that if take those last 11 years and take the 'Final Four' if you will, and say that of those 44 teams, 40 of them had a payroll near (within 5%), or greater than the league average that year. Unlike you, I don't think all 90+ win teams are equal. There are some teams that are "regular season" teams and there are others that are "post season" teams. If you have a nice mix of players who "get the job done" so to speak, you are a team that's built for regular season play. You capitalize on other teams mistakes, nickle and dime your way to runs, and play a more fundamentally sound game. That will win you a lot of games against bad teams. If you have a power team full of stars, guys tend to be more lax and a game slips here and there, but no one cares because you're winning enough games. But when you get to the playoffs... no one is resting on their laurels. The power teams run you over, there's no joking around. Teams with the better players win in multi-games situations. In the NCAA tournamet, anything can happen in a "one and done" format. In a best of three, sure a lesser team can pull of the upset. But, in a best of 5 and 7, the cream rises to the top, 9 times out of 10, the truely better team wins.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 12:23 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
In a best of 5 or best of 7 situation it's the team with the better pitching in those games that wins. You could throw out Justin Verlander but if he gets rocked in game 1 you're in serious trouble. That is why I really like what the Pirates are doing because if you can march out Cole, Taillon and Heredia you'll have a shot in any playoff series. It's why I think that Tampa Bay always has a chance in the playoffs because if you can go Price, Shields and Moore you got a shot. San Fran won their World Series with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner. What do all those 9 guys have in common? All 9 of them are homegrown.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 12:37 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
Also I know a lot of people were complaining about the new draft rules that were implemented this year but those rules really helped the teams that need it the most. People say well the Pirates spent the most in a 4 year period but that is because they picked at the top of the draft and had to spend so much to sign top draft picks. What isn't noticed is that the team that was second was the Boston Red Sox who picked at the end of those drafts, they paid 20% of what the Pirates did to their first round draft pick but spent a lot more in the later rounds of the draft stealing players that would of gone to college. The Yankees and Red Sox have been doing that for years and that is why they can trade prospects for players. That option is gone to them now. Pedro Alvarez was drafted by the Red Sox and Gerrit Cole was drafted by the Yankees. Had they signed each of those organizations would of had the top ranked prospect in future years drafts. They did sign a whole bunch of other guys though.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 12:46 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
katoy2j wrote: In a best of 5 or best of 7 situation it's the team with the better pitching in those games that wins. You could throw out Justin Verlander but if he gets rocked in game 1 you're in serious trouble. That is why I really like what the Pirates are doing because if you can march out Cole, Taillon and Heredia you'll have a shot in any playoff series. It's why I think that Tampa Bay always has a chance in the playoffs because if you can go Price, Shields and Moore you got a shot. San Fran won their World Series with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner. What do all those 9 guys have in common? All 9 of them are homegrown. I won't argue that at all. But, what teams have the better chance of throwing out Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner? Or Hamels, Halladay, and Lee? Or Harrison, Holland, and Darvish? The teams that can spend the most money. The teams that can get 3 excellent pitchers are able to pay them. Whether they are home grown or not, they can either pay to keep them or pay to acquire them. Price is awesome, Shields is really good, Moore... so far he's pretty good, let's see if that continues next year now that teams have a full season's worth of time to analyize with him. The Rays won't win best of 5's or 7's against teams with 3 really good pitchers if they are throwing out Price, Shields, and Moore. This year Tampa needed A+ scouting, A+ managing, and A+ production just to be competitive. If those grades are all A-, they end up with 5 or 6 less wins and never in the playoff hunt. Being perfect got them "competitive", but it didn't make them a "contender". Next year it might... it might not. The year after, it might... it might not. I do know this, next year the Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, and Rangers will be contenders. Now of course, injuries can happen and things can change, but all things being equal, I'd put money on all of those teams (and so would everyone else), to win the world series before they put it on Tampa.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 1:01 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
The only reason Tampa didn't make the playoffs this year is because there best player missed a huge chunk of the season. Tampa Bay is going to win 89 or 90 games despite the fact that Evan Longoria only played in 73 games and was hobbled in his performance coming back. All things considered the fact they were able to almost make it screams how much of a difference a good manager can make over a bad one. Tampa Bay didn't really get a lot of luck this year. They had more than their fair share of injuries including losing their third baseman, shortstop, right fielder and DH for extended periods of time.
The biggest improvement in my opinion the Pirates can make is replacing Hurdle.
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Posted: 10/03/2012 4:31 PM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
When it comes down to it, the big market teams have a MUCH better chance at success than the small market teams.
Big market teams have a HUGE advantage when it comes to signing FA's. This is obvious. Not only can they afford to sign the best players, they attract ALL players. Everyone wants to play for a contender. That's a fact. Would you rather play for a yearly contender or a small market team that hopes it gets lucky? It's a very easy choice.
Big market teams also have a HUGE advantage in the trade market. Salary is no issue. Because of this, teams can take on big contracts to fill an immediate need. Small market teams cannot do this.
If a season isn't going as planned for a big market team, they have the ability to make trades and do ANYTHING necessary to get back on track. If a season isn't going as planned for a small market team, they hope to improve next year.
Tampa and Oakland are the current 2 small market teams who got it right. They are the exception. The others are the norm.
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Posted: 10/04/2012 10:41 AM
RE: Baseball- Small Market/Big Market
The new national TV deal will also help the Pirates and other small market teams. Under the old deal which expires next year each team gets about 24 million. In the new deal that starts in 2014 each team will get 50 million. Other teams will get that as well but combined with a much harsher luxury tax system that also takes into effect in 2014 a lot of teams will want to stay below the 189 million dollar mark.
Now this won't make the Pirates be able to catch up to every team but it is certainly possible to have a 100 million dollar payroll in time because of all the added revenue. It will also close the gap significantly to the high water teams.
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