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Bell moves position..

Posted: 08/27/2014 6:06 AM

Bell moves position.. 


The Pirates have now moved Josh Bell to 1B as well. Interesting they have now moved Bell and Sanchez to 1B and they are both RH hitters.
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Posted: 08/27/2014 6:30 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Bell is a switch hitter, unless he changed to RH exclusively recently.
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Posted: 08/27/2014 6:54 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


No suprise here as this was speculated for awhile.

Bell is a Switch hitter, not RH exclusively.

Also, this switch starts with his play in the Arizona Fall League.

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Posted: 08/27/2014 12:09 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Not only is it a good move, it's a necessary one...

The Pirates have a lot of depth in OF. Outside of the guys who've been in Pittsburgh this season the Pirates have 

Mel Rojas Jr
Wily Garcia
Keon Broxton

that'll probably be in AAA next year depending on what they do with Jaff...
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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Posted: 08/27/2014 4:41 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


I guess this means the book is closed on Lambo. When he comes up in September and does well do the Pirates attempt to trade him in the offseason regardless. Do they pair him with Tabata and take marginal players in exchange just to dispose of some used baby diapers?
---------------------------------------------
--- fishmong wrote:

Not only is it a good move, it's a necessary one...

The Pirates have a lot of depth in OF. Outside of the guys who've been in Pittsburgh this season the Pirates have 

Mel Rojas Jr
Wily Garcia
Keon Broxton

that'll probably be in AAA next year depending on what they do with Jaff...

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 08/27/2014 5:33 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


I think it was expected, but it shows me even more that they have given up on Tony Sanchez. Plus with a move to 1st with him, it pretty much kills any real trade value he has.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 4:35 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Maybe but Sanchez could in theory be ready for next season to be the RH platoon at First if they don't want to spend millions on Gabby to be that RH platoon.

Bell is probably still at least a year or year and half away from the majors.

I don't really think one decison has anything to do with the other although it is clear Sanchez and catching is not working out.  

vinnybravo wrote: I think it was expected, but it shows me even more that they have given up on Tony Sanchez. Plus with a move to 1st with him, it pretty much kills any real trade value he has.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 5:23 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



panthers2533 wrote:

Maybe but Sanchez could in theory be ready for next season to be the RH platoon at First if they don't want to spend millions on Gabby to be that RH platoon.

Bell is probably still at least a year or year and half away from the majors.

I don't really think one decison has anything to do with the other although it is clear Sanchez and catching is not working out.  

vinnybravo wrote: I think it was expected, but it shows me even more that they have given up on Tony Sanchez. Plus with a move to 1st with him, it pretty much kills any real trade value he has.
That is what I was thinking that as well, but do you want to go with a Tony Sanchez/Pedro platoon next season, just to save 2 or 3 mil?

I do like the fact that they now have a possible 1B player in the minors in Bell. I think that helps the decision making for the next 2 years or so. Just will be interesting to see what happens with Pedro.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 6:49 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



vinnybravo wrote:
panthers2533 wrote:

Maybe but Sanchez could in theory be ready for next season to be the RH platoon at First if they don't want to spend millions on Gabby to be that RH platoon.

Bell is probably still at least a year or year and half away from the majors.

I don't really think one decison has anything to do with the other although it is clear Sanchez and catching is not working out.  

vinnybravo wrote: I think it was expected, but it shows me even more that they have given up on Tony Sanchez. Plus with a move to 1st with him, it pretty much kills any real trade value he has.
That is what I was thinking that as well, but do you want to go with a Tony Sanchez/Pedro platoon next season, just to save 2 or 3 mil?

I do like the fact that they now have a possible 1B player in the minors in Bell. I think that helps the decision making for the next 2 years or so. Just will be interesting to see what happens with Pedro.

I think it will be definitely be Pedro or Ike. I think it will depend on whether or not they can flip Alvarez for something in the offseason.

If they can get a decent return on him, I expect him to be traded and the Pirates to bring Ike back to be the LH platoon partner at first. If they can't trade Pedro, I would bet they bring him back to be the LH platoon at first and trade Ike or DFA him.

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Posted: 08/28/2014 8:46 AM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Wow.  Just thinking about having to choose between Alvarez and Davis at first.....*SHUDDER*.  eek

Last edited 08/28/2014 8:52 AM by williamjpellas

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Posted: 08/28/2014 12:30 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


You guys do realize the only reason that Tony Sanchez is playing first base is because they promoted Elias Diaz right?  They can only play one player at catcher at a time.  Sanchez is still getting time at catcher but playing at first allows him the opportunity to get more at bats.

Diaz was seen as an organizational filler who had excellent defense.  The last two years his offense has come around big time.  If he continues to hit in AAA at the start of next season he will likely be called up in June.

The catchers next season are almost surely going to be Tony Sanchez and Stewart as the co starters and Sanchez acting as the short side platoon first baseman as well.  That would allow Sanchez to start probably 90 games at catcher and Stewart would get the other 72.  Sanchez would probably get an additional 30 or so starts at first base.

Martin has been great this year but it's been a contract year.  His offensive stats are pretty much career highs. Realistically though you would be a fool to pay for the mirage of his offensive stats.  He has a .355 BABIP this year.  His career BABIP is .288.  In 2013 his BABIP was .266.  In 2012 it was .222 and in 2011 it was .252.  None of the offense is sustainable.  Guys have outlier years all the time.  Smart teams don't pay for that.  He's going to be the Russell Martin he's always been the next few years.  230's average, .320 OBP.  Also catcher defense declines very early generally.  32 is usually the year things start to drop off.  Martin is in really good shape so I would give him a little more time.  Considering you're paying for age 32-35 seasons most likely under no circumstance would I go anywhere past 4 years and 50 million and that is being very generous.  Chances are you're already going to take a bath on the 4th year.  A team will top that number for sure but it shouldn't be the Pirates.  That kind of contract can cripple a team.  It's best to let a player go a year too early than hang onto a guy too long.  Offensively I think it won't be much of a downgrade from Martin to Sanchez.  Remember you're unlikely to get 2014 Martin offensively in the future.  There will be a downgrade defensively for sure.

He will get a qualifying offer for sure.  That might help the Pirates.  He will decline it for sure because he can get a multi year deal.  In the past though that has hurt non elite players.  It will really depend if a team like the Dodgers want to surrender a draft pick for him.  The Dodgers didn't sign anyone last year that required a draft pick.  If teams are willing to give up a draft pick for Martin he will get stupid money and he's gone from the Pirates.  I can see even a 5 year, 80 million dollar deal.  If they don't want to surrender the draft pick though the Pirates are in the drivers seat.  Then you're looking at a 4 year deal between 40-50 million.  He won't sign that contract now though.  He will wait to see what free agency plays out like.  If Martin does come back, Tony Sanchez will still be the backup and will play some as well as the first base platoon.  Gaby Sanchez will make about 3 million next year and Stewart about 1.5-2 million so they will just trade or non tender both guys in that situation.  They will also have to decide which first baseman to keep between Davis and Alvarez because you aren't going to carry two left handed hitting first baseman at 4+ million dollar salaries each.  While that's a lot of money coming off the books players are getting fairly substantial raises like McCutchen and Morton while other players like Josh Harrison are going to enter arbitration for the first time and likely multiply his salary by 6 times.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 1:14 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


4 current playoff teams primarily used worse first baseman than either Davis or Alvarez this season.

Mark Reynolds - Milwaukee - .698 OPS
Eric Hosmer - Kansas City - .689 OPS
Chris Davis - Baltimore - .687 OPS
Logan Morrison - Seattle - .657 OPS
Justin Smoak - Seattle - .630 OPS

I would like to see what Alvarez can do offensively when he doesn't have to worry about playing defense.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 1:58 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



katoy2j wrote: You guys do realize the only reason that Tony Sanchez is playing first base is because they promoted Elias Diaz right?  They can only play one player at catcher at a time.  Sanchez is still getting time at catcher but playing at first allows him the opportunity to get more at bats.

Diaz was seen as an organizational filler who had excellent defense.  The last two years his offense has come around big time.  If he continues to hit in AAA at the start of next season he will likely be called up in June.

The catchers next season are almost surely going to be Tony Sanchez and Stewart as the co starters and Sanchez acting as the short side platoon first baseman as well.  That would allow Sanchez to start probably 90 games at catcher and Stewart would get the other 72.  Sanchez would probably get an additional 30 or so starts at first base.

Martin has been great this year but it's been a contract year.  His offensive stats are pretty much career highs. Realistically though you would be a fool to pay for the mirage of his offensive stats.  He has a .355 BABIP this year.  His career BABIP is .288.  In 2013 his BABIP was .266.  In 2012 it was .222 and in 2011 it was .252.  None of the offense is sustainable.  Guys have outlier years all the time.  Smart teams don't pay for that.  He's going to be the Russell Martin he's always been the next few years.  230's average, .320 OBP.  Also catcher defense declines very early generally.  32 is usually the year things start to drop off.  Martin is in really good shape so I would give him a little more time.  Considering you're paying for age 32-35 seasons most likely under no circumstance would I go anywhere past 4 years and 50 million and that is being very generous.  Chances are you're already going to take a bath on the 4th year.  A team will top that number for sure but it shouldn't be the Pirates.  That kind of contract can cripple a team.  It's best to let a player go a year too early than hang onto a guy too long.  Offensively I think it won't be much of a downgrade from Martin to Sanchez.  Remember you're unlikely to get 2014 Martin offensively in the future.  There will be a downgrade defensively for sure.

He will get a qualifying offer for sure.  That might help the Pirates.  He will decline it for sure because he can get a multi year deal.  In the past though that has hurt non elite players.  It will really depend if a team like the Dodgers want to surrender a draft pick for him.  The Dodgers didn't sign anyone last year that required a draft pick.  If teams are willing to give up a draft pick for Martin he will get stupid money and he's gone from the Pirates.  I can see even a 5 year, 80 million dollar deal.  If they don't want to surrender the draft pick though the Pirates are in the drivers seat.  Then you're looking at a 4 year deal between 40-50 million.  He won't sign that contract now though.  He will wait to see what free agency plays out like.  If Martin does come back, Tony Sanchez will still be the backup and will play some as well as the first base platoon.  Gaby Sanchez will make about 3 million next year and Stewart about 1.5-2 million so they will just trade or non tender both guys in that situation.  They will also have to decide which first baseman to keep between Davis and Alvarez because you aren't going to carry two left handed hitting first baseman at 4+ million dollar salaries each.  While that's a lot of money coming off the books players are getting fairly substantial raises like McCutchen and Morton while other players like Josh Harrison are going to enter arbitration for the first time and likely multiply his salary by 6 times.
The only thing I question in this is, do you really think Sanchez is even going to get a shot in Spring?  This year the kid could hit or catch.  It's not like 1 was good and the other was terrible.  I mean, he truly sucked at both.  At the very least, I'm thinking they're going to bring in someone and make Sanchez earn his spot on the roster.  Maybe they take a shot at Soto or Pierzynski and make it a competition.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 08/28/2014 2:45 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Sanchez has a .278 average in the majors this season. I wouldn't exactly say he can't hit.

In the minors he has an OPS of .800 against right handed pitching. What is killing him is that he isn't hitting opposite handed pitching which is what most hitters excel at. He only has a .536 OPS against opposite handed pitching in AAA. This is a huge anomaly because he had a .934 OPS against lefties in 2013 and in 2012 it was .865.

He's likely going to be a platoon first baseman next season and catcher. It depends on his defense how much catching he does. There is a throwing issue as his 13% caught steeling rate is well below what he has done in the minors. If Sanchez can improve the throwing issues he could be a very good everyday player. If he can't he's still going to be a useful player because of his bat.

Diaz has very highly regarded defense. He needs at least a half season in AAA. The smart move is to play Sanchez and Stewart till June and then figure out what needs to be done then. If Diaz has forced his way onto the roster then you promote him and because Sanchez can play first base as well you can run with 3 catchers. If Sanchez is playing well you can move Stewart. It's not going to be an all-star position but between the trio of Sanchez, Stewart and Diaz you should get average production. Yeah Martin is better than any of those three but it depends on the price. 10-12 million a year for the next 4 years? Okay you can swallow that. 15-17 though means you're putting yourself in big trouble. 2015 will be fine but having a 34-35 year old Russell Martin chewing up 15-17 million in 2017 and 2018 will really impact what you can do. Chances are he isn't going to be a very good player then.

To me you have a good defensive catcher in Stewart. You have a good offensive catcher in Sanchez. You have a good all around catcher in Diaz. I would let Martin go, take the draft pick and just be okay with batting my catcher 8th in the order.

Any time a player is going to make 8 figures he has to be an offensive catalyst. I just don't see that from Martin. It's all BABIP driven which tends to return to it's averages over long periods of times. You look at what Martin has done OPS wise from 2009-2014

2009 - .680
2010 - .679
2011 - .732
2012 - .713
2013 - .703
2014 - .833

He's generally been pretty consistent except for one season. Teams that are paying for that one season are going to be disappointed when he puts up a .725 OPS next season. Stewart is a very good defensive catcher as well. So even if the worst case scenario is he has to be the 100 game starter you aren't going to see the pitching staff fall apart. There will be some downgrade offensively from Martin but the team is good enough that they could overcome that. 10-12 is good for Martin. Anything more than that though I think you're better off letting him walk.

Last edited 08/28/2014 2:50 PM by katoy2j

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Posted: 08/28/2014 5:02 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


Katoy, I agree with most of your points here with the lone exception being Stewart. I watch almost every game on TV and nothing about him stands out - including his defense IMO. I cannot imagine this team contending with Stewart catching anything near 100 games. Granted, I am no scout but my eyeballs have not been impressed at all by his play.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 5:07 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



katoy2j wrote: You guys do realize the only reason that Tony Sanchez is playing first base is because they promoted Elias Diaz right?  They can only play one player at catcher at a time.  Sanchez is still getting time at catcher but playing at first allows him the opportunity to get more at bats.

Diaz was seen as an organizational filler who had excellent defense.  The last two years his offense has come around big time.  If he continues to hit in AAA at the start of next season he will likely be called up in June.

The catchers next season are almost surely going to be Tony Sanchez and Stewart as the co starters and Sanchez acting as the short side platoon first baseman as well.  That would allow Sanchez to start probably 90 games at catcher and Stewart would get the other 72.  Sanchez would probably get an additional 30 or so starts at first base.

Martin has been great this year but it's been a contract year.  His offensive stats are pretty much career highs. Realistically though you would be a fool to pay for the mirage of his offensive stats.  He has a .355 BABIP this year.  His career BABIP is .288.  In 2013 his BABIP was .266.  In 2012 it was .222 and in 2011 it was .252.  None of the offense is sustainable.  Guys have outlier years all the time.  Smart teams don't pay for that.  He's going to be the Russell Martin he's always been the next few years.  230's average, .320 OBP.  Also catcher defense declines very early generally.  32 is usually the year things start to drop off.  Martin is in really good shape so I would give him a little more time.  Considering you're paying for age 32-35 seasons most likely under no circumstance would I go anywhere past 4 years and 50 million and that is being very generous.  Chances are you're already going to take a bath on the 4th year.  A team will top that number for sure but it shouldn't be the Pirates.  That kind of contract can cripple a team.  It's best to let a player go a year too early than hang onto a guy too long.  Offensively I think it won't be much of a downgrade from Martin to Sanchez.  Remember you're unlikely to get 2014 Martin offensively in the future.  There will be a downgrade defensively for sure.

He will get a qualifying offer for sure.  That might help the Pirates.  He will decline it for sure because he can get a multi year deal.  In the past though that has hurt non elite players.  It will really depend if a team like the Dodgers want to surrender a draft pick for him.  The Dodgers didn't sign anyone last year that required a draft pick.  If teams are willing to give up a draft pick for Martin he will get stupid money and he's gone from the Pirates.  I can see even a 5 year, 80 million dollar deal.  If they don't want to surrender the draft pick though the Pirates are in the drivers seat.  Then you're looking at a 4 year deal between 40-50 million.  He won't sign that contract now though.  He will wait to see what free agency plays out like.  If Martin does come back, Tony Sanchez will still be the backup and will play some as well as the first base platoon.  Gaby Sanchez will make about 3 million next year and Stewart about 1.5-2 million so they will just trade or non tender both guys in that situation.  They will also have to decide which first baseman to keep between Davis and Alvarez because you aren't going to carry two left handed hitting first baseman at 4+ million dollar salaries each.  While that's a lot of money coming off the books players are getting fairly substantial raises like McCutchen and Morton while other players like Josh Harrison are going to enter arbitration for the first time and likely multiply his salary by 6 times.
So is Diaz going to be the guy they are now touting as the "next" catcher? I was wondering who the player was they were going to start talking about now that it looks like Tony has flamed out.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 5:16 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



katoy2j wrote: 4 current playoff teams primarily used worse first baseman than either Davis or Alvarez this season.

Mark Reynolds - Milwaukee - .698 OPS
Eric Hosmer - Kansas City - .689 OPS
Chris Davis - Baltimore - .687 OPS
Logan Morrison - Seattle - .657 OPS
Justin Smoak - Seattle - .630 OPS

I would like to see what Alvarez can do offensively when he doesn't have to worry about playing defense.
At the position of 1B, the Pirats have a OPS of .704 that ranks 24h in MLB and 13th in the NL. Seattle and the Brewers are the only playoff teams that are worse.

Being a big fan of T. Sanchez and Pedro I would love to see them both on the Big team, but I am not sure that would be best for the Pirates. Also, I am not sure how well Pedro will do having to split playing time and not ever being able to get into a real hitting routine.

I still wont be surprised to see Pedro start ST at 3B if they cant trade Davis.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 5:32 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 



katoy2j wrote: Sanchez has a .278 average in the majors this season. I wouldn't exactly say he can't hit.

In the minors he has an OPS of .800 against right handed pitching. What is killing him is that he isn't hitting opposite handed pitching which is what most hitters excel at. He only has a .536 OPS against opposite handed pitching in AAA. This is a huge anomaly because he had a .934 OPS against lefties in 2013 and in 2012 it was .865.

He's likely going to be a platoon first baseman next season and catcher. It depends on his defense how much catching he does. There is a throwing issue as his 13% caught steeling rate is well below what he has done in the minors. If Sanchez can improve the throwing issues he could be a very good everyday player. If he can't he's still going to be a useful player because of his bat.

Diaz has very highly regarded defense. He needs at least a half season in AAA. The smart move is to play Sanchez and Stewart till June and then figure out what needs to be done then. If Diaz has forced his way onto the roster then you promote him and because Sanchez can play first base as well you can run with 3 catchers. If Sanchez is playing well you can move Stewart. It's not going to be an all-star position but between the trio of Sanchez, Stewart and Diaz you should get average production. Yeah Martin is better than any of those three but it depends on the price. 10-12 million a year for the next 4 years? Okay you can swallow that. 15-17 though means you're putting yourself in big trouble. 2015 will be fine but having a 34-35 year old Russell Martin chewing up 15-17 million in 2017 and 2018 will really impact what you can do. Chances are he isn't going to be a very good player then.

To me you have a good defensive catcher in Stewart. You have a good offensive catcher in Sanchez. You have a good all around catcher in Diaz. I would let Martin go, take the draft pick and just be okay with batting my catcher 8th in the order.

Any time a player is going to make 8 figures he has to be an offensive catalyst. I just don't see that from Martin. It's all BABIP driven which tends to return to it's averages over long periods of times. You look at what Martin has done OPS wise from 2009-2014

2009 - .680
2010 - .679
2011 - .732
2012 - .713
2013 - .703
2014 - .833

He's generally been pretty consistent except for one season. Teams that are paying for that one season are going to be disappointed when he puts up a .725 OPS next season. Stewart is a very good defensive catcher as well. So even if the worst case scenario is he has to be the 100 game starter you aren't going to see the pitching staff fall apart. There will be some downgrade offensively from Martin but the team is good enough that they could overcome that. 10-12 is good for Martin. Anything more than that though I think you're better off letting him walk.
Just looking at this Diaz kids stats and I dont see him being anywhere even close to being ready for the ML level right now. This is the 1st year he has played higher than A ball. He did well in AA as a 23 year old, but is struggling in AAA so far. I think he needs at least ONE full season in AAA to even see if he will be a capable backup before we talk about him being the starter for the big club.

I am not sure if what other catchers are available for next season, but losing Martin will be devastating for the pitching staff and the Pirates. Not only would they need a catcher, but the Pirates are 13th in the NL in OPS at the 1B and RF position this season. I think we all agree Polanco will be a good player, but as of right now he is an unknown. Add 3B as a concern as well for me. I like Harrison, but can he be counted on as an everyday 3B next season? Thats a big if to add to 1B, RF and C.

This off season is going to be very interesting for the Pirates as they have a lot of holes to fill and decisions to make.
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Posted: 08/28/2014 7:10 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


You're putting too much thought into particular positions.

Travis Snider has played well this year.  Who cares if some of his stats were when he was playing left field and not when he played RF.  That is over simplifying things.  Who cares what the first base stats are at this point.  They're brought down by guys like Travis Ishikawa.

At the end of the day the Pirates no matter what happens will be starting pretty good players at every position this season and next season the only real question mark is catcher.  They can easily get by with starting Stewart in the 8th spot.  Every other starter besides Mercer should easily post a .700+ OPS or above and Mercer is certainly capable of doing so.

Even with the deficiencies you want to claim the team is still a top 3 offense in the NL.

As for Diaz, teams will take strong defenders and let the player grow into the offense.  Diaz fits the bill.  I don't see him needing more than half a season of strong play in AAA next year.  If you're evaluating him this year he's played all of 8 games at the level.  As I said though teams will take the defense and live with the offense.  Yadier Molina in his first 4 seasons had a .248/.304/.349 line for a .653 OPS.  Diaz could probably post similar if not better numbers than that.  Low strikeout and low power players are generally easier to project.  They don't need nearly the time that other guys do.  Diaz is just going to slap the ball the other way.  He's never going to swing for the fences and will probably be lucky to ever hit double digit homers.  He reminds me a lot of Jonathan Lucroy but minus the power.  He just needs to learn nuances of the game but he can get the reps in required in the AFL and in winter ball.  Sure he could break his arm on opening day of the minor league season next year but if he stays healthy and the Pirates need a catcher I think he can be an option in June. 

The more I think about it the worse of an idea I think it is to try and retain Martin unless his market completely collapses and by that I mean 4 years and 40 million.  Baseball players do not age well.  Especially when they have career seasons right before free agency.  Shin Soo Choo had a monster year last season with a .885 OPS.  This year it's .714.  James Loney had a .778 OPS last season and this year it's down to .705  I can see Martin completely bombing offensively next season because luck tends to even out over the long run.  Martin has been extremely lucky this year with his BABIP.  He's likely to be unlucky next season.  If I'm the Pirates, I take the draft pick and let Martin be someone elses problem.  Use that money to sign Liriano who could possibly be had at a bargain rate.  I would rather have Liriano for 4 years and 36 million over Martin at 4 years and 50 million.  I don't even think Martin will sign that low either.  Someone will overpay and probably give him 60 million over 4 years and then wonder what happened when he has a .725 OPS next season.  It's best that team isn't the Pirates.

There is no way possible I can see both Davis and Alvarez on this team next year.  If they can't trade one of them then they will just non tender Davis.  They aren't going to commit 4 and 5 million respectively to essentially the same player.  Alvarez's days as a full time third baseman are done.  He might go all Chris Davis and shift back there if something happened to Harrison but chances are they would just call up Alen Hanson if that happened.

The Pirates are likely to have a huge youth injection over the next couple of years.  I think both Glasnow and Taillon will pitch in some capacity next season.  Glasnow would be in AA now but he's  staying in A ball to get playoff experience.  He will go to the AFL and then AA to start next season.  As long as there aren't major control issues he should progress quickly.  He needs to be challenged against higher competition.  He reminds me a lot of Daniel Norris.  Glasnow will probably end up with 140+ innings in the minors with playoffs included.  Probably another 15 in the AFL.  That will put him at 155 ish for this season.  That will allow him to get to 195 next year.  He won't get that number in the minors.  Cole pitched 60 innings in AA and then 74 innings in AAA and then got called up.  Glasnow will probably be similar.  He might not be used in June but if he stays healthy and doesn't get lit up he will be pitching inning in the majors in September.  Perhaps as a reliever and then they will transition him to the starting rotation in 2016.  Taillon they will start in AAA and see how his control is because that can be shaky.  If he's doing well in June he will slide into the rotation.  Before Alvarez got moved I would of thought Josh Bell would have a good chance to play in the majors next season but with Alvarez at first unless he completely bombs that won't happen.  Instead I think they will give him half a season in AA, move him to AAA and then stall him in the minors to start 2016 and make him the regular first baseman for June 2016.  They will probably play Alvarez at first next season and hope he has a strong season and trade him once the season is done.

In terms of young players I think you will see a lot of guys play next season.  I would expect all these guys to get playing time at one point or another next year.

Alen Hanson
Elias Diaz
Tony Sanchez
Gregory Polanco
Andrew Lambo
Tyler Glasnow
Jameson Taillon
Mel Rojas
Andrew Oliver

You're going to see a lot of veterans purged off this roster.  Besides Martin who I think will get a big contract elsewhere all these guys will likely be gone.

Gaby Sanchez
Ike Davis
Edison Volquez
Jon Axford
Jenmar Gomez
Clint Barmes
Jose Tabata
Michael Martinez
Brent Morel

Liriano is a possibility to return I think it just depends what he is willing to sign for.  If it doesn't go to 8 digits the Pirates will probably want to bring him back.

I think next years opening roster will break down something like this

C - Stewart
C /1b - T. Sanchez

1b - Pedro Alvarez
1b/of - Andrew Lambo

2b - Neil Walker

SS - Jordy Mercer

3b - Josh Harrison

OF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Starling Marte
OF - Gregory Polanco
OF - Travis Snider

That is 11 out of 13 position players.  Because there are a lot of guys that can cover multiple positions since Alvarez could play some third base next season to give Harrison an occasional rest.  They will need one utility infielder capable of playing shortstop and after that they probably want a right handed bat since Lambo and Snider are likely to be the top two pinch hitting options.  It would be a really smart move to try and get Gregorius from Arizona and let him and Mercer platoon.  Then Diaz and Hanson will probably be up when an injury occurs or in June.

Pitching wise I think for starters you have the following locked into spots to start the year

Cole
Morton
Locke

They will bring in a veteran guy I think.  I think they would love to have Liriano back.  If not him then someone like Justin Masterson or Brandon McCarthy are good fits.  The last spot will probably be a battle between Worley, Cumpton, Pimentel and Kingham.  Whoever wins will go to the rotation, a couple of the others will go to the bullpen and one or maybe two guys will go to AAA for depth.  Personally I think they should try and sell high on Worley.  If he doesn't fall apart the rest of the way and considering the fact he has 4 years of club control left and the fact the Diamondbacks need pitching then Worley and an okay prospect should be enough to get Gregorius if Arizona likes Worley.

In the bullpen you have the big three of Melancon, Watson and Hughes.  They will be joined by Wilson and I believe Oliver next season.  Pimentel will be the long man and that leaves room for one more reliever.  Probably some former closer looking to rebuild value.

There might be a trade with some of these guys but I don't think you need anything earth shattering done.  The offense will still be good even with Martin gone.  Whatever you lose with Martin gone will likely be made up by Polanco.  The pitching will be above average provided Lirano returns or one of the other guys.  With those 24 guys I have the payroll at 50 million for that roster.  Add another 10 million to bring Liriano back and that takes you to roughly 60 million so you have even some room to bring in a guy like Masterson as well on a one year deal to let him build up value.  I just wouldn't use that money on Martin because while he will likely be useful in 2015 and 2016 he's going to sap the payroll after that.  Plus the payroll is going to take big jumps in those years as guys like Cole reach arbitration and Marte and McCutchens contracts continue to rise.

Last edited 08/28/2014 8:04 PM by katoy2j

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Posted: 08/28/2014 10:26 PM

Re: Bell moves position.. 


I don't think anyone looks at Martin's offense as the primary reason to keep him. I know what your thoughts on intangibles are, but the fact of the matter is Russel Martin is a leader on this team and his presence has a lot to do with the success of cast away's like Volquez and Worley. I don't think Russel Martin's value comes from his bat, and I think going 3 years at 45 million with a vesting option is a reasonable deal for what he brings to the table.

I understand that "intangibles" can't be measured so they aren't high on your priority list. It's that line of thinking that leads someone to believe that a team that has a 4-15 stretch is finished for the year.

By the way the Giants had a 4-15 stretch from June 9th and June 29th!
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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