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2015 Rotation

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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:11 PM

2015 Rotation 


While I certainly haven't stuck a fork in anything, the Stolmy Pimentel thread got me asking myself questions... When does Taillon come back? Will Glasnow make the jump to Pittsburgh at some point? How will Nick Kingham progress? All those questions led me to start thinking about where the rotation stands going into next year. Since we can't predict the future I'm only going to look at the guys who are under contract next season.

1 Gerrit Cole
2 Charlie Morton
3 Jeff Locke
4 Vance Worley
5 Stolmy Pimentel
6 Jeanmar Gomez
7 Tony Watson
8 Nick Kingham
9 Brandon Cumpton
10 Justin Wilson
11 Casey Sadler
12 Jameson Taillon
13 Adrian Sampson
14 Tyler Glasnow

ML Relievers like Watson or Wilson have moved into the rotation in the past in other places, so I don't discount the possibility. There's a good chance that talent is brought in, something I'm sure will be discussed as soon as the last out of the season is made. As it stands now the Pirates have a good amount of depth, but lack 1 or 2 front/middle rotation arms. 

I believe in Gerrit Cole's ability, but we can't just assume that he'll progress into the elite category of pitcher the Pirates will need to win in the playoffs. He's by no means doomed to failure, but he still has a way to go to be the "GUY". Charlie Morton, to me, is an outstanding #3-#4 starter in your rotation, I don't see him being much more than that though. Jeff Locke and Vance Worley have to go into next season penciled into the rotation, and while both have had dominant starts this season I couldn't imagine either of those guys as the number 2 starter of a playoff team. Going on down the list you have guys with lots of potential, but nobody who's ready to join Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation quite yet.
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:16 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


That's not a very re-assuring rotation.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:20 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


I'd feel a lot better about that rotation if it had David Price or Jon Lester in it.  We'll probably sign somebody like Josh Johnson this off season though.
 
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:23 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


I think at this point we can trust whatever the Front Office decides to do, they've earned it.  They went with Volquez as the addition this year and acquired Worley for depth, both of those moves worked out great.  Plus with Kingham and Taillon (will be back by spring training barring a set-back), and eventually Glasnow, there isn't as big of a need to add much in the offseason.  I really like the pitching depth with the addition of one off-season addition, possibly resigning Liriano.

Last edited 08/14/2014 12:23 PM by cferrel3

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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:26 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


There's certainly some high end talent in the coffers, but the Pirates are going to have to make a move in the rotation. Kingham should find his way to Pittsburgh at some point. He just faced some adversity in his last few starts, but rebounded with 7 innings of 3 hit ball his last time out. In my mind Kingham will be a #3 or #4 starter when it's all said and done, and a back of the rotation guy when he first comes up. I feel slightly better about him than I do about Jeff Locke and Vance Worley, probably only because I haven't seen him get blown up in Pittsburgh.
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:33 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


I think your concerns are legitimate, but the only thing I ask is why do you always assume that players for the Pirates will only achieve what many perceive as the lower end of their potential?

What I mean by that is you said Morton is a solid #3-#4 even though he has more than proven he is a very good #3.  You see Kingham as a #3-#4 "back-end" buy, when most scouts see him as a #3 in the future with a #2 ceiling.  You have Locke and Worley below Kingham even though they've outpictched that most of their career.  Just curious as to why you always look at players with a pessimistic view.  I'm not naïve, I know some pitchers will flop, but some will also reach their ceilings.  If only a couple reach their ceilings the Pirates are set.
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:34 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


Taillon and Glasnow seem like 2016 names for me. If they do slide into the rotation in mid-2015 that's gravy, but I think planning on either guy to be there is lunacy. 

A guy like David Price would have been great, but he reportedly would have cost Charlie Morton in addition to a future piece. Lester would have been a free agent, but I get where you are coming from. The Pirates have to have another front of the rotation starter for next season, barring someone stepping up in a major way.
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:44 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



fishmong wrote: Taillon and Glasnow seem like 2016 names for me. If they do slide into the rotation in mid-2015 that's gravy, but I think planning on either guy to be there is lunacy. 

A guy like David Price would have been great, but he reportedly would have cost Charlie Morton in addition to a future piece. Lester would have been a free agent, but I get where you are coming from. The Pirates have to have another front of the rotation starter for next season, barring someone stepping up in a major way.

Why lunacy?  Kingham is already established in AAA, and Taillon was already established in AAA and is due back by Spring Training.  I see it as the opposite, to think/or expect neither will contribute is lunacy.

Also, why do they "need" another front of the rotation starter?  They are winning, and winning big with their current staff.  I'd be very interested in bringing Liriano back, but other than that I'd look internally or for a high upside candidate.
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Posted: 08/14/2014 12:55 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



cferrel3 wrote: I think your concerns are legitimate, but the only thing I ask is why do you always assume that players for the Pirates will only achieve what many perceive as the lower end of their potential?

What I mean by that is you said Morton is a solid #3-#4 even though he has more than proven he is a very good #3.  You see Kingham as a #3-#4 "back-end" buy, when most scouts see him as a #3 in the future with a #2 ceiling.  You have Locke and Worley below Kingham even though they've outpictched that most of their career.  Just curious as to why you always look at players with a pessimistic view.  I'm not naïve, I know some pitchers will flop, but some will also reach their ceilings.  If only a couple reach their ceilings the Pirates are set.
My opinion is based on my experience watching the game of baseball. We just see the game differently, certain players are better in your eyes than they are in mine. Sometimes the way you see it ends up being right(Jason Heyward/Jay Bruce) sometimes the way I see it ends up being right. It's not like our opinions are all that different. I have Morton a tick below where you think he is. I don't see Locke or Worley having enough consistency to be anything more than fringe MOR arms... but just remember I saw Jordy Mercer being terrible the rest of the year as well....It's really only after the fact we can judge whether any of the claims we make are right or wrong.

It's not simply a matter of if these guys hit their ceilings. There's also the matter of timing. If Tyler Glasnow finds it in July in his last year of club control that matters. The way I see it now is the Pirates have 3 guys who can be #1/#2 starters in Glasnow, Taillion, and Cole. Kingham is a notch below that, but in my eyes a guy that's a #3/#4 starter is a very good ML pitcher. Look at some of the #3 and #4 starters around the league.... that's high praise for a guy who hasn't recorded an out in Pittsburgh yet. If he's more than that terrific... NOBODY saw Corey Kluber coming.... I just go with what I feel is realistic, and simply enjoy watching.
THE IGNORE FUNCTION IS A BEAUTIFUL THING
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Posted: 08/14/2014 1:01 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


The real question for the 2015 staff is "who will be the starting catcher?"

Does anyone believe that Morton will be nearly as good without Martin?  How about guys like Worley?  Who even knows if Searage will be here?  What happens if he and Martin both leave?  eek
 
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Posted: 08/14/2014 3:12 PM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



GhostOfPBG wrote: The real question for the 2015 staff is "who will be the starting catcher?"

Does anyone believe that Morton will be nearly as good without Martin?  How about guys like Worley?  Who even knows if Searage will be here?  What happens if he and Martin both leave?  eek
martin doesn't catch morton anyway,and people are saying martin could get about max 4years 48mill on open market,12mill a year which isn't terrible if they wanna retain him

Last edited 08/15/2014 7:26 AM by chu8870

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Posted: 08/15/2014 5:26 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 6:32 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.

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Posted: 08/15/2014 6:40 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


If we are only speaking about guys under control, then 4 of them would be Cole, Morton, Worley, and Locke. I see Cumpton as the 5th guy because the management has not been prone to throwing rookies into the fire, mostly due to Super 2 matters.

With this said, the Pirates will surprise me if they don't either sign another reclamation project or attempt to sign Liriano. He will probably not command near as much as he would have after last season.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 6:53 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



gr1111 wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.
A rotation of Morton, Volquez, Liriano, Locke and Worley has been nearly good enough this year.  And that's with a shaky bullpen. 

I'm not sure I'm super comfortable with Kingham to start the season, but who knows.  I'd like to see them pursue some type of free agent starter and focus on improving the bullpen.  I'd love to see them re-sign Martin obviously, but who knows how that will go down.  Even if they offer him the same or more than others, he may choose one of the big market teams like the Dodgers thinking he has a better chance to win.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 6:58 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.
A rotation of Morton, Volquez, Liriano, Locke and Worley has been nearly good enough this year.  And that's with a shaky bullpen. 

I'm not sure I'm super comfortable with Kingham to start the season, but who knows.  I'd like to see them pursue some type of free agent starter and focus on improving the bullpen.  I'd love to see them re-sign Martin obviously, but who knows how that will go down.  Even if they offer him the same or more than others, he may choose one of the big market teams like the Dodgers thinking he has a better chance to win.


True, but I just don't think the talent (the stuff) is there to sustain that success for very long.  If you get a warm fuzzy with Locke or Worley take the mound, then you and I just differ in that regard.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 08/15/2014 7:06 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



gr1111 wrote:
WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.
A rotation of Morton, Volquez, Liriano, Locke and Worley has been nearly good enough this year.  And that's with a shaky bullpen. 

I'm not sure I'm super comfortable with Kingham to start the season, but who knows.  I'd like to see them pursue some type of free agent starter and focus on improving the bullpen.  I'd love to see them re-sign Martin obviously, but who knows how that will go down.  Even if they offer him the same or more than others, he may choose one of the big market teams like the Dodgers thinking he has a better chance to win.


True, but I just don't think the talent (the stuff) is there to sustain that success for very long.  If you get a warm fuzzy with Locke or Worley take the mound, then you and I just differ in that regard.
Warm and fuzzy would be a stretch, no doubt.  I think they are slowly proving they can get the job done as 4th and 5th starters, with the potential to be more than that.  It would be great if we could go out and sign the John Lester's of the world, but the reality is that is not going to happen.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 7:21 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.
A rotation of Morton, Volquez, Liriano, Locke and Worley has been nearly good enough this year.  And that's with a shaky bullpen. 

I'm not sure I'm super comfortable with Kingham to start the season, but who knows.  I'd like to see them pursue some type of free agent starter and focus on improving the bullpen.  I'd love to see them re-sign Martin obviously, but who knows how that will go down.  Even if they offer him the same or more than others, he may choose one of the big market teams like the Dodgers thinking he has a better chance to win.


True, but I just don't think the talent (the stuff) is there to sustain that success for very long.  If you get a warm fuzzy with Locke or Worley take the mound, then you and I just differ in that regard.
Warm and fuzzy would be a stretch, no doubt.  I think they are slowly proving they can get the job done as 4th and 5th starters, with the potential to be more than that.  It would be great if we could go out and sign the John Lester's of the world, but the reality is that is not going to happen.


I see Cole as a good #2, Morton a 3#-4#, and Volquez, Locke and Worley as competitive #5s.  That is why I don't think they're good enough long-term.  But then again, my opinon and $3 will buy you coffee.

I don't think we can get a Lester, but there have to be some #3 types (at least one) that could be had to strengthen the rotation, which as I see it now has too much at the back end and enough in the middle or the top..

___________

 

  

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  • bucco66
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Posted: 08/15/2014 8:21 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 


If I was a gamblin man, I'd bet that Pimentel has already been inked in to the starting rotation for next year just as Volquez was inked in to this year's on the day he was signed. He has no options left, he has the years of minor league experience under his belt and it's just time to see if he's got what it takes to be a ML starter. We could also be losing Volquez and/or Liriano. Cole is having issues. Is Worley the real deal? Locke is Locke whatever that means. Kingham is a minor leaguer who shows promise but he's young and has plenty of options left and will probably need them before he's ready. Wilk, Sadler and Cumpton don't miss enough bats even in the minors to give me much hope for holding down a regular rotation spot. Most of the other pitching prospects are in A ball. Unless there's some credible off-season signings, we don't have a ton of quality, affordable options available and I think Pimentel is the best in-house one we've got.
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Posted: 08/15/2014 9:00 AM

Re: 2015 Rotation 



gr1111 wrote:
WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
WVUKowski wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: The 2015 rotation looks like:

Cole
Morton
KIngman
Locke
Worley

Pimentel is an option as well. Tailion wont be ready by ST. He will still need work and at best would be a Mid summer call up. That rotation is ok, but not great. The is no real stopper/ top of the rotation guy. I would like to see the FO look for a top of the rotation pitcher, but I think we all know that a scrap heap project is all you can hope for.

I also think the Pirates HAVE to resign Martin, if not, they catcher situation is a mess and the staff will suffer.


I tend to agree with that.  And I don't think it is nearly good enough.
A rotation of Morton, Volquez, Liriano, Locke and Worley has been nearly good enough this year.  And that's with a shaky bullpen. 

I'm not sure I'm super comfortable with Kingham to start the season, but who knows.  I'd like to see them pursue some type of free agent starter and focus on improving the bullpen.  I'd love to see them re-sign Martin obviously, but who knows how that will go down.  Even if they offer him the same or more than others, he may choose one of the big market teams like the Dodgers thinking he has a better chance to win.


True, but I just don't think the talent (the stuff) is there to sustain that success for very long.  If you get a warm fuzzy with Locke or Worley take the mound, then you and I just differ in that regard.
Warm and fuzzy would be a stretch, no doubt.  I think they are slowly proving they can get the job done as 4th and 5th starters, with the potential to be more than that.  It would be great if we could go out and sign the John Lester's of the world, but the reality is that is not going to happen.


I see Cole as a good #2, Morton a 3#-4#, and Volquez, Locke and Worley as competitive #5s.  That is why I don't think they're good enough long-term.  But then again, my opinon and $3 will buy you coffee.

I don't think we can get a Lester, but there have to be some #3 types (at least one) that could be had to strengthen the rotation, which as I see it now has too much at the back end and enough in the middle or the top..
I think Cole will progress in the offseason, so I'm confident if they can bring in another #2-#3 type starter it'd be a rotation capable of winning a playoff series. I don't see a scenario where Charlie Morton is the #2 starter and it going well. In the NL almost every real contender has 2 guys at the top of the rotation that are a notch above everyone else. I think Cole is on that notch above Charlie Morton, and I think the Pirates need to find the guy to be on that notch with Gerrit Cole. It certainly isn't going to be Jeff Locke or Vance Worley.
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