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Pedro vs Donaldson

Posted: 07/20/2014 4:31 PM

Pedro vs Donaldson 


As a Pedro fan, yes I am a big Pedro fan, I was looking at his stats to see if I could find "one" thing that would give me hope that Pedro is ready to turn the corner and be that legitimate star at 3B. I was looking at his stats compared to AS starter Josh Donaldson. If you look at the overall stats they are pretty much right on par. Pedro in fact, is a little better in some of the stats. So even though he was voted in, why is Donaldson looked at as more of a star player right now? And then, for at least me, I found the glaring reason.

As I have said before, Pedro is almost useless after the 6th inning, I just didnt realize how bad it was this season. Let me try and show my point. Here are some situational stats that show the difference between the two:

Batting average with the bases empty:
Pedro   .248
Josh D .195

Pedro has the huge advantage. No one on base and Pedro is an average hitter, BUT:

Batting average with runners on base
Pedro  .228
Josh D .292

Batting average with RISP
Pedro  ..207
Josh D .309

and lastly:

Batting average Late/Close (according to baseball reference):
Pedro  .127
Josh D .295

That is the big thing, Pedro gets worse as the stakes get bigger. Put runners on base, put them in scoring position or fast forward late in games, and Pedro actually gets significantly worse where a guy like Donaldson gets better. And its not just this season, this is the pattern for Pedro, but why?

My opinion is this, Pedro is a poor hitter with a ton of power. Has he went to LF more this season and even walked more, but still it does not show when it matters. Pitchers will still try and challenge him with no one on base because ML Pitchers have HUGE EGOS. Pitchers will try and challenge Pedro with a FB when no one is on just to see if they have more than Pedro can handle. As we all know Pedro can crush a FB. However, change the situation and make the at bat count a little more and Pedro is not good enough to hit anything other than a FB. Pitchers know this and are easily able to manipulate this flaw and render Pedro almost useless.

Why is this a big deal? Because Pedro was supposed to be the middle of the order bat the Pirates needed. They skimped on the 1B position and held on with below quality players in RF because they thought they had the middle of the order bat in Pedro, but they were wrong. Pedro will still get his RBI's even with his inability to hit the ball with RISP simply because he will have the opportunities. The Pirates lead the league in OBP, so even Snider could bat 4th and put up a good RBI total.

I do not think Pedro is a lost cause, but he is also not improving in these critical stats. I think this also shows that Pedro HAS to be platooned. The Pirates have to get a bat at the deadline that can play 3B so Pedro can be PH for late in game and vs LHP. That player should not be Harrison. Will that decision mean the difference between winning and losing? I am not sure, but I know its a pretty big issue to me.

If the FO is serious about winning then they will address the needs of the team this time and not try and put a band-aide on to simply get by. I would love then to go after Beltre. I would love for them to spend the money and solidify a middle of the order bat that they dont have. I do realize they still need pitching, but its also a must to have that player that can be counted on late in games to produce from the middle of the line up, and the Pirates are lacking in that right now. For me, its time to add a big piece to add to the team you built and not just talk about financial flexibility for the future. I am not saying that I am right in any way, I am simply stating my opinion on why I think Pedro, right now, is not a good fit at 3B for the Pirates.
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Posted: 07/20/2014 5:17 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


they have one his name is Harrison,and sanchez can play 3B if needed
vinnybravo wrote: As a Pedro fan, yes I am a big Pedro fan, I was looking at his stats to see if I could find "one" thing that would give me hope that Pedro is ready to turn the corner and be that legitimate star at 3B. I was looking at his stats compared to AS starter Josh Donaldson. If you look at the overall stats they are pretty much right on par. Pedro in fact, is a little better in some of the stats. So even though he was voted in, why is Donaldson looked at as more of a star player right now? And then, for at least me, I found the glaring reason.

As I have said before, Pedro is almost useless after the 6th inning, I just didnt realize how bad it was this season. Let me try and show my point. Here are some situational stats that show the difference between the two:

Batting average with the bases empty:
Pedro   .248
Josh D .195

Pedro has the huge advantage. No one on base and Pedro is an average hitter, BUT:

Batting average with runners on base
Pedro  .228
Josh D .292

Batting average with RISP
Pedro  ..207
Josh D .309

and lastly:

Batting average Late/Close (according to baseball reference):
Pedro  .127
Josh D .295

That is the big thing, Pedro gets worse as the stakes get bigger. Put runners on base, put them in scoring position or fast forward late in games, and Pedro actually gets significantly worse where a guy like Donaldson gets better. And its not just this season, this is the pattern for Pedro, but why?

My opinion is this, Pedro is a poor hitter with a ton of power. Has he went to LF more this season and even walked more, but still it does not show when it matters. Pitchers will still try and challenge him with no one on base because ML Pitchers have HUGE EGOS. Pitchers will try and challenge Pedro with a FB when no one is on just to see if they have more than Pedro can handle. As we all know Pedro can crush a FB. However, change the situation and make the at bat count a little more and Pedro is not good enough to hit anything other than a FB. Pitchers know this and are easily able to manipulate this flaw and render Pedro almost useless.

Why is this a big deal? Because Pedro was supposed to be the middle of the order bat the Pirates needed. They skimped on the 1B position and held on with below quality players in RF because they thought they had the middle of the order bat in Pedro, but they were wrong. Pedro will still get his RBI's even with his inability to hit the ball with RISP simply because he will have the opportunities. The Pirates lead the league in OBP, so even Snider could bat 4th and put up a good RBI total.

I do not think Pedro is a lost cause, but he is also not improving in these critical stats. I think this also shows that Pedro HAS to be platooned. The Pirates have to get a bat at the deadline that can play 3B so Pedro can be PH for late in game and vs LHP. That player should not be Harrison. Will that decision mean the difference between winning and losing? I am not sure, but I know its a pretty big issue to me.

If the FO is serious about winning then they will address the needs of the team this time and not try and put a band-aide on to simply get by. I would love then to go after Beltre. I would love for them to spend the money and solidify a middle of the order bat that they dont have. I do realize they still need pitching, but its also a must to have that player that can be counted on late in games to produce from the middle of the line up, and the Pirates are lacking in that right now. For me, its time to add a big piece to add to the team you built and not just talk about financial flexibility for the future. I am not saying that I am right in any way, I am simply stating my opinion on why I think Pedro, right now, is not a good fit at 3B for the Pirates.
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Posted: 07/20/2014 7:05 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Interesting analysis. Good research, Vinny.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 07/21/2014 4:33 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


While I agree with your overall point Vinny, I would not have a platoon partner with Pedro high on my list at the trade deadline.

Because I think Harrison is fine in that role. Yeah, Harrison isn't a middle of the order player, but he will be fine as a platoon partner with Pedro.

I think the Pirates have other more pressing needs like a RP, a SP, and maybe 1st base help if Davis doesn't get it going here in the next few weeks before they worry about getting a 3rd base platoon parter.

But like I said, I do agree at some point, maybe this offseason, they need to address 3rd base due to Pedro's issues and him not growing as a player.
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Posted: 07/21/2014 6:19 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



panthers2533 wrote: While I agree with your overall point Vinny, I would not have a platoon partner with Pedro high on my list at the trade deadline.

Because I think Harrison is fine in that role. Yeah, Harrison isn't a middle of the order player, but he will be fine as a platoon partner with Pedro.

I think the Pirates have other more pressing needs like a RP, a SP, and maybe 1st base help if Davis doesn't get it going here in the next few weeks before they worry about getting a 3rd base platoon parter.

But like I said, I do agree at some point, maybe this offseason, they need to address 3rd base due to Pedro's issues and him not growing as a player.
In order, my priorities would be SP, 1B or 3B (that can hit in the 4/5 slot), LH bench bat, RP.

I dont think that RP is a major issue at this point. I think the Pirates have some options in AAA right now and come playoff time, there is a starter or two that can be moved to the Pen. I think Melancon is a better set up man than a closer, but he is good enough that an upgrade is not a priority and most likely will not be available

I still like the thought of going after Beltre. I think Texas will pick up a decent part of his contact, plus he only has 1 year left, plus team option, so the Pirates wont be saddles with a big contract for long. He would give the Pirates that middle of the order bat they need. I could see the Pirates scoring almost 1 more run a game with him hitting 4th.
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Posted: 07/21/2014 6:50 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


I was expecting a lot more out of Pedro this year, as I'm sure most were.  Sadly, this looks like the worst year of his career (except 2011 which was cut short as he was sent down.)  Not only is he well on his way to leading the league in errors for a 3rd straight year, but that OPS of .732 isn't getting it done and neither is his career low slugging pct of .407

A bad batting average is one thing, but Pedro just isn't getting it done anywhere.  As Vinny pointed out, he doesn't seem to be able to come through with runners on, and he has proven he cannot produce in the 4-hole.  At some point, the Pirates need to re-evelaute where they stand with Pedro.
 
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Posted: 07/21/2014 7:57 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


On offense Pedro has been okay. He's literally one hot streak away where he hits 5 homers in 4 games from posting career best numbers in the OPS department. His average is where it has generally been for his career. His walks are at the highest level they have ever been. His slugging percentage is the only thing down and that is the thing I worry least about with Pedro and that is his power.
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Posted: 07/21/2014 9:30 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


But that is part of the problem with Pedro.

He may be one hot streak away from getting his numbers in line. That's fine for Pedro. But what the TEAM needs is regular consistent production from him, not a few hot streaks. Pedro's numbers are generally OK, but they belie his lack of value overall (relatively speaking).

Again, I don't think he needs to be replaced. He is what he is, and he's ours, for better and for worse. I just think he doesn't add great value to the team overall, regardless of his numbers. We can still hope for improvement from him, but he isn't a spring chicken any more.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 07/21/2014 9:52 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Why are there still threads being started on Pedro?  At this point it is beating a dead horse.  Pedro is a solid everyday starting 3rd baseman (and maybe 1st baseman next season).  He could still become a star, but as of right now he is just solid and we all know this.  You can't compare him to arguably the best 3rd baseman in all of baseball, that isn't fair at this point because he is not in that league.  Obviously his numbers are going to be worse on both sides of the ball.
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Posted: 07/21/2014 2:07 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Because he has been bad lately. His throwing is an issue and he is not hitting for power. I have been a firm Pedro supporter, but his act is getting tired. I may miss him when he is gone, but he is painful to watch when he gets in these funks.


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--- cferrel3 wrote:

Why are there still threads being started on Pedro?  At this point it is beating a dead horse.  Pedro is a solid everyday starting 3rd baseman (and maybe 1st baseman next season).  He could still become a star, but as of right now he is just solid and we all know this.  You can't compare him to arguably the best 3rd baseman in all of baseball, that isn't fair at this point because he is not in that league.  Obviously his numbers are going to be worse on both sides of the ball.

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Posted: 07/21/2014 3:52 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Other than the throwing issues he hasn't been bad recently, actually the opposite.  I mean we just faced 3 lefties in a row, I didn't expect much from him.  The month and a half before the all-star break he had an OPS well over .800 and an on-base percentage in the upper .300's
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Posted: 07/21/2014 4:56 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



abitoutside wrote: Because he has been bad lately. His throwing is an issue and he is not hitting for power. I have been a firm Pedro supporter, but his act is getting tired. I may miss him when he is gone, but he is painful to watch when he gets in these funks.


---------------------------------------------
--- cferrel3 wrote:

Why are there still threads being started on Pedro?  At this point it is beating a dead horse.  Pedro is a solid everyday starting 3rd baseman (and maybe 1st baseman next season).  He could still become a star, but as of right now he is just solid and we all know this.  You can't compare him to arguably the best 3rd baseman in all of baseball, that isn't fair at this point because he is not in that league.  Obviously his numbers are going to be worse on both sides of the ball.

---------------------------------------------

He is obviously not "solid" this season, not if by "solid" you mean 1) leading all players at all positions in errors, and 2) his usual .230-ish batting average.  There is nothing about that that says "solid" to me.  Your defend-him-at-all-costs stance is just silly, to my eyes.  I get that you like Pedro.  Okay, whatever.   But the lengths to which you have to go to spin things in order to defend him ought to be telling you something.  I think ABO said it best: His throwing is an issue and he is not hitting for power....his act is getting tired. I may miss him when he is gone, but he is painful to watch when he gets in these funks.
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Posted: 07/21/2014 5:25 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


I'm not spinning anything Willy lol.  He isn't anything special this season, but he is far from a disaster or hurting the team.  He is just performing solidly.  Those were a solid two cherry picked statistics though.  I said the throwing was an issue so I don't know why you threw that in there.  He has been more than solid the last month+, but he was bad before that (also unlucky). 

Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly?  I'd love to hear the argument on that.

Last edited 07/21/2014 5:26 PM by cferrel3

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Posted: 07/21/2014 10:17 PM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



The point was to show horrible Pedro is with runners on base and after the 6th inning. Where a guy like Donaldson gets better, Pedro gets worse. Pedro is average withe the bases empty, but put runners on or even worse, put them in scoring position and Pedro disappears. This is a guy that needs to be a middle of the order bat, yet he just cannot produce in these situations.

Pedro has been a huge disappointment this season, and worse off he is actually getting worse in clutch situations. If he cannot produce in these key situations, is he really a building block moving forward?

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--- cferrel3 wrote:

I'm not spinning anything Willy lol.  He isn't anything special this season, but he is far from a disaster or hurting the team.  He is just performing solidly.  Those were a solid two cherry picked statistics though.  I said the throwing was an issue so I don't know why you threw that in there.  He has been more than solid the last month+, but he was bad before that (also unlucky). 

Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly?  I'd love to hear the argument on that.

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Posted: 07/22/2014 7:35 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly? I'd love to hear the argument on that.


Since when is Pedro's OPS "well above .800"?  It is .732 for the season.  Which by the way would mark two straight seasons of decline since his career "high" of .784 in 2012.  Oh, that's right: you're cherry picking statistics again.  I guess you mean he had an OPS above .800 for the month of June.  Or something.  As for "why" I would mention that he is leading the universe in errors, I suppose you think that doesn't mean anything?  Seriously, cferrel, you really need to stop it with Pedro. You're beyond silly with all this. He is what he is, and what he is, is not terrible by any means, but it's plainly evident that he is not, nor will he ever be, a building block kind of player.  At least not in Pittsburgh.  Some guys get it, some don't.  Some guys (like Evan Longoria, a truly good third baseman and twice the player Alvarez is) want to face the other team's best in clutch situations.  Other guys shrink from that pressure.  Guess which category Pedro is in?  Add in Boras and his certain-to-be-beyond-ridiculous salary demands, and I say trade Pedro this coming offseason if not sooner.  And I don't care what Yinzer Nation says about how that would "prove that the Pirates don't want to spend any money".  

Last edited 07/22/2014 7:38 AM by williamjpellas

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Posted: 07/22/2014 9:55 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Willy, your reading comprehension skills aren't working for you.  The throws DO matter, and that's why I didn't understand why you mentioned that towards me as I have said that he has throwing issues over and over again.  I'm not dismissing them, in fact, the opposite.  I'm not defending Pedro, he was a problem early in the season, however, over the last couple months he hasn't been.  That's why I don't understand the hate, he is doing his job right now.  There isn't anything to defend, he defends himself.  You're far too harsh when it comes to him.

And Vinny, when have I ever said that he was a "building block"??  That's right, I haven't.  I have said the exact opposite, that I would only sign him to an extension if it was very affordable.  Basically, I'm in the camp that we keep him until we have to trade him or let him walk, and that's it. 

Don't put words in my mouth, or have a better memory, or be better at reading comprehension...IDK just something.  Because I shouldn't have even had to write all of this.
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Posted: 07/22/2014 10:01 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



williamjpellas wrote: Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly? I'd love to hear the argument on that.


Since when is Pedro's OPS "well above .800"?  It is .732 for the season.  Which by the way would mark two straight seasons of decline since his career "high" of .784 in 2012.  Oh, that's right: you're cherry picking statistics again.  I guess you mean he had an OPS above .800 for the month of June.  Or something.  As for "why" I would mention that he is leading the universe in errors, I suppose you think that doesn't mean anything?  Seriously, cferrel, you really need to stop it with Pedro. You're beyond silly with all this. He is what he is, and what he is, is not terrible by any means, but it's plainly evident that he is not, nor will he ever be, a building block kind of player.  At least not in Pittsburgh.  Some guys get it, some don't.  Some guys (like Evan Longoria, a truly good third baseman and twice the player Alvarez is) want to face the other team's best in clutch situations.  Other guys shrink from that pressure.  Guess which category Pedro is in?  Add in Boras and his certain-to-be-beyond-ridiculous salary demands, and I say trade Pedro this coming offseason if not sooner.  And I don't care what Yinzer Nation says about how that would "prove that the Pirates don't want to spend any money".  



Why bother?

___________

 

  

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Posted: 07/22/2014 10:09 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



williamjpellas wrote: Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly? I'd love to hear the argument on that.


Since when is Pedro's OPS "well above .800"?  It is .732 for the season.  Which by the way would mark two straight seasons of decline since his career "high" of .784 in 2012.  Oh, that's right: you're cherry picking statistics again.  I guess you mean he had an OPS above .800 for the month of June.  Or something.  As for "why" I would mention that he is leading the universe in errors, I suppose you think that doesn't mean anything?  Seriously, cferrel, you really need to stop it with Pedro. You're beyond silly with all this. He is what he is, and what he is, is not terrible by any means, but it's plainly evident that he is not, nor will he ever be, a building block kind of player.  At least not in Pittsburgh.  Some guys get it, some don't.  Some guys (like Evan Longoria, a truly good third baseman and twice the player Alvarez is) want to face the other team's best in clutch situations.  Other guys shrink from that pressure.  Guess which category Pedro is in?  Add in Boras and his certain-to-be-beyond-ridiculous salary demands, and I say trade Pedro this coming offseason if not sooner.  And I don't care what Yinzer Nation says about how that would "prove that the Pirates don't want to spend any money".  
Willy, my question would be: Since when is a .796 OPS considered "well over .800"?  Since June 1, Pedro has a .796, which is perfectly fine.  The problem is that the .796 OPS is a product of June where Pedro was finally being productive, where he had an .879 OPS.

I'd also ask: Just because De La Rosa, Anderson, and Matzek are lefties... why should we not expect much from Pedro?  It's not like any of them are are all that tough.

To Vinny, the biggest difference with Donaldson and Pedro is that Donaldson can hit his HR's and have a solid OPS batting in the top half of the lineup.  Pedro can only produce that in the bottom half.
#fringeprospect

Last edited 07/22/2014 10:20 AM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 07/22/2014 10:12 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 



gr1111 wrote:
williamjpellas wrote: Since when is an OPS well above .800 someone who is performing not solidly? I'd love to hear the argument on that.


Since when is Pedro's OPS "well above .800"?  It is .732 for the season.  Which by the way would mark two straight seasons of decline since his career "high" of .784 in 2012.  Oh, that's right: you're cherry picking statistics again.  I guess you mean he had an OPS above .800 for the month of June.  Or something.  As for "why" I would mention that he is leading the universe in errors, I suppose you think that doesn't mean anything?  Seriously, cferrel, you really need to stop it with Pedro. You're beyond silly with all this. He is what he is, and what he is, is not terrible by any means, but it's plainly evident that he is not, nor will he ever be, a building block kind of player.  At least not in Pittsburgh.  Some guys get it, some don't.  Some guys (like Evan Longoria, a truly good third baseman and twice the player Alvarez is) want to face the other team's best in clutch situations.  Other guys shrink from that pressure.  Guess which category Pedro is in?  Add in Boras and his certain-to-be-beyond-ridiculous salary demands, and I say trade Pedro this coming offseason if not sooner.  And I don't care what Yinzer Nation says about how that would "prove that the Pirates don't want to spend any money".  



Why bother?
Seriously.
 
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Posted: 07/22/2014 10:37 AM

Re: Pedro vs Donaldson 


Pedro isn't in Donaldson ' s league. Donaldson is probably the best 3rd baseman in baseball, if not top 3. I don't know why we are comparing them. Some of you say You're fine with what Pedro is and then continue to rip on him. Pick one.
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