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WAR... what is it good for

Posted: 07/15/2014 7:53 PM

WAR... what is it good for 


After watching the pirates/reds game a few nights ago, it really made me think about how WAR is bs.

cutch hit a home run in the 9th with 2 outs to tie it up and one to take the lead in the 11th.  NO REPLACEMENT would be able to accomplish this.

how can a player be given a number of "wins above replacement" when a guy does something so incredible as what he did a few nights ago.  There is not a replacement on the pirates roster that could do that...

Does that game should count as an automatic +1 in the WAR category once it happens?  There is not a replacement in all of baseball that could have won that game.

I get why the stat can be used.  Jordy mercer could account for maybe 2 more wins in a season than barmes, i get it.  But if cutch is not in the lineup and his replacement is snider (though marte or polanco would play center, snider would be the bench replacement) for a 162 game season, the pirates would have at least 10 less wins over 162 games if not more.  

IDK, i just kinda wondered how or if individual outstanding performances could be factored in.  its a flawed stat in my opinion.  if cutch robs a home run in the 9th to win the game, his WAR would have to go up a whole game as he won the game by himself.  

right now i would say cutch's WAR should be somewhere around 20 because without him, this is a 30-50 ish team.
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Posted: 07/15/2014 8:26 PM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



PittClubBaseball wrote: After watching the pirates/reds game a few nights ago, it really made me think about how WAR is bs.

cutch hit a home run in the 9th with 2 outs to tie it up and one to take the lead in the 11th.  NO REPLACEMENT would be able to accomplish this.

how can a player be given a number of "wins above replacement" when a guy does something so incredible as what he did a few nights ago.  There is not a replacement on the pirates roster that could do that...

Does that game should count as an automatic +1 in the WAR category once it happens?  There is not a replacement in all of baseball that could have won that game.

I get why the stat can be used.  Jordy mercer could account for maybe 2 more wins in a season than barmes, i get it.  But if cutch is not in the lineup and his replacement is snider (though marte or polanco would play center, snider would be the bench replacement) for a 162 game season, the pirates would have at least 10 less wins over 162 games if not more.  

IDK, i just kinda wondered how or if individual outstanding performances could be factored in.  its a flawed stat in my opinion.  if cutch robs a home run in the 9th to win the game, his WAR would have to go up a whole game as he won the game by himself.  

right now i would say cutch's WAR should be somewhere around 20 because without him, this is a 30-50 ish team.
Actually, pretty close. McCutchen's Win Probably Added for that game was 0.831.
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Posted: 07/16/2014 6:02 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



PittClubBaseball wrote: After watching the pirates/reds game a few nights ago, it really made me think about how WAR is bs.

cutch hit a home run in the 9th with 2 outs to tie it up and one to take the lead in the 11th.  NO REPLACEMENT would be able to accomplish this.

how can a player be given a number of "wins above replacement" when a guy does something so incredible as what he did a few nights ago.  There is not a replacement on the pirates roster that could do that...

Does that game should count as an automatic +1 in the WAR category once it happens?  There is not a replacement in all of baseball that could have won that game.

I get why the stat can be used.  Jordy mercer could account for maybe 2 more wins in a season than barmes, i get it.  But if cutch is not in the lineup and his replacement is snider (though marte or polanco would play center, snider would be the bench replacement) for a 162 game season, the pirates would have at least 10 less wins over 162 games if not more.  

IDK, i just kinda wondered how or if individual outstanding performances could be factored in.  its a flawed stat in my opinion.  if cutch robs a home run in the 9th to win the game, his WAR would have to go up a whole game as he won the game by himself.  

right now i would say cutch's WAR should be somewhere around 20 because without him, this is a 30-50 ish team.
I'm ok with WAR, but I do agree with you in a certain aspect.  To me, the superstars of the league are above the WAR metric.  I said 2 years ago when the Pirates something like 45-30 in at some point in July - you know, before the total collapse - that McCutchen's WAR was grossly understated.  His WAR at the time was something like 3.5 to 4.  I said his WAR - at that time - was legitimately around 20.  My reasoning for that was not just the impact on that season as it was going, but also the direction of that team.

Had McCutchen not been there, that team easily would have been something like 35-40 and would likely have been sellers, instead of buyers at the deadline.  My proof of that is the following... at the end of July, the Pirates were 59-44.  They then proceeded to go 20-39 the rest of the way.  McCutchen's OPS from August 1 through the end of the season was .779.  While reasonably respectable, his August was .693 and it was truly the beginning of the end.  In a 34-game stretch, the Pirates were 13-21 when McCutchen had a .688 OPS during that period.

In 2012...
Tabata - .664 OPS (-0.5 WAR)
Snider - .652 OPS (0.3 WAR)
Marte - .737 OPS (1.1 WAR)
Holt - .682 OPS (-0.2 WAR)
Sutton - .697 OPS (-0.3 WAR)
McLouth - .385 OPS (0.6 WAR)

I ask you, what combination of this group would have produced what McCutchen did from April through the end of July?  Their total combined WAR for the whole season was 1.0.  I'm sorry, but if that group mixed and matched covered for McCutchen up to July 31, there's no way that team has more than 30 wins.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 07/16/2014 6:11 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


Saber-heads and drunks use light-pole for the same reason...for support in stead of using for the true purpose..illumination.

Stats can be very, very helpful, but can tell you only so much. Anyone can create a stat to prove the point they want to make. There are some really good stats out there, but they will never, ever, ever tell the whole story and if you simply look at numbers on a piece if paper then you are not seeing the whole picture and are destined to fail.
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Posted: 07/16/2014 6:42 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



vinnybravo wrote: Saber-heads and drunks use light-pole for the same reason...for support in stead of using for the true purpose..illumination.

Stats can be very, very helpful, but can tell you only so much. Anyone can create a stat to prove the point they want to make. There are some really good stats out there, but they will never, ever, ever tell the whole story and if you simply look at numbers on a piece if paper then you are not seeing the whole picture and are destined to fail.
Beautifully said. 

I remember in the Polanco discussions prior to his arrival, there was a columnist/expert that said the Pirates were forfeiting about 1-2 WAR by not having Polanco up with the big club since opening day.   We are 19-13 with Polanco and 30-33 without Polanco.  The 19-13 mark includes injuries to key players such as Martin, Cole, Liriano, etc. 

Just my opinion, but while WAR may serve a purpose, it is far from a science.
 
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Posted: 07/16/2014 7:35 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



TBayXXXVII wrote:
PittClubBaseball wrote: After watching the pirates/reds game a few nights ago, it really made me think about how WAR is bs.

cutch hit a home run in the 9th with 2 outs to tie it up and one to take the lead in the 11th.  NO REPLACEMENT would be able to accomplish this.

how can a player be given a number of "wins above replacement" when a guy does something so incredible as what he did a few nights ago.  There is not a replacement on the pirates roster that could do that...

Does that game should count as an automatic +1 in the WAR category once it happens?  There is not a replacement in all of baseball that could have won that game.

I get why the stat can be used.  Jordy mercer could account for maybe 2 more wins in a season than barmes, i get it.  But if cutch is not in the lineup and his replacement is snider (though marte or polanco would play center, snider would be the bench replacement) for a 162 game season, the pirates would have at least 10 less wins over 162 games if not more.  

IDK, i just kinda wondered how or if individual outstanding performances could be factored in.  its a flawed stat in my opinion.  if cutch robs a home run in the 9th to win the game, his WAR would have to go up a whole game as he won the game by himself.  

right now i would say cutch's WAR should be somewhere around 20 because without him, this is a 30-50 ish team.
I'm ok with WAR, but I do agree with you in a certain aspect.  To me, the superstars of the league are above the WAR metric.  I said 2 years ago when the Pirates something like 45-30 in at some point in July - you know, before the total collapse - that McCutchen's WAR was grossly understated.  His WAR at the time was something like 3.5 to 4.  I said his WAR - at that time - was legitimately around 20.  My reasoning for that was not just the impact on that season as it was going, but also the direction of that team.

Had McCutchen not been there, that team easily would have been something like 35-40 and would likely have been sellers, instead of buyers at the deadline.  My proof of that is the following... at the end of July, the Pirates were 59-44.  They then proceeded to go 20-39 the rest of the way.  McCutchen's OPS from August 1 through the end of the season was .779.  While reasonably respectable, his August was .693 and it was truly the beginning of the end.  In a 34-game stretch, the Pirates were 13-21 when McCutchen had a .688 OPS during that period.

In 2012...
Tabata - .664 OPS (-0.5 WAR)
Snider - .652 OPS (0.3 WAR)
Marte - .737 OPS (1.1 WAR)
Holt - .682 OPS (-0.2 WAR)
Sutton - .697 OPS (-0.3 WAR)
McLouth - .385 OPS (0.6 WAR)

I ask you, what combination of this group would have produced what McCutchen did from April through the end of July?  Their total combined WAR for the whole season was 1.0.  I'm sorry, but if that group mixed and matched covered for McCutchen up to July 31, there's no way that team has more than 30 wins.


Totally agree. I am not an expert by any means on WAR or even close to an expert. In fact, I admit I am probably not that knowledgeable on it other than what the definition of it is.

But in saying that, I totally agree with your point on overall impact of Star players. They are grossly undervalued from a WAR standpoint.

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Posted: 07/16/2014 2:31 PM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


WAR isn't suppose to be a science, so those that are saying some of us use it as that are flat out wrong, and by a long shot lol.  The only people using it incorrectly are the people I see ranting and raving that it is a "made up stat" (all stats are "made up" btw).  It's simply the best available tool for evaluating one player against another.  It is suppose to be used in conjunction with other statistics and evaluation methods.  It's pretty accurate though and a lot of time and effort was put forth to develop the statistic.  It's far from perfect, but it is the best available tool by far and a pretty good evaluation method. 

To those thinking we would be a ton of games worse without McCutchen, we would be, but not 20 or something like that.  That's a ridiculous thought.  We wouldn't be just losing his statistics, someone else would get those at-bats and at least provide some value.  I think WAR is pretty accurate this season, I think the Pirates would be around 44-51 without him, that seems about right to me.  Were Cutch hurt from day one Polanco would have been up in the Majors and making up for some of the lost value along with Harrison getting some of those at-bats and providing value, however, Snider and Tabata would be providing negative value like they were earlier in the season.  I don't see who would really think we would be worse than that record, that seems about right to me.  It isn't 100% accurate and isn't suppose to be, but it's pretty close.

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Posted: 07/16/2014 5:45 PM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


All these (offensive) stats are helpful and can be (as said) illuminating.

The only problem is that they are so easily manipulated. A few torture the numbers to support just about anything, and then seem to revel in how clever they are for it (see how smart I am!). You just always have to be careful that the stats at issue are being used rather than abused.

JMO


---------------------------------------------
--- panthers2533 wrote:


TBayXXXVII wrote:
PittClubBaseball wrote: After watching the pirates/reds game a few nights ago, it really made me think about how WAR is bs.

cutch hit a home run in the 9th with 2 outs to tie it up and one to take the lead in the 11th.  NO REPLACEMENT would be able to accomplish this.

how can a player be given a number of "wins above replacement" when a guy does something so incredible as what he did a few nights ago.  There is not a replacement on the pirates roster that could do that...

Does that game should count as an automatic +1 in the WAR category once it happens?  There is not a replacement in all of baseball that could have won that game.

I get why the stat can be used.  Jordy mercer could account for maybe 2 more wins in a season than barmes, i get it.  But if cutch is not in the lineup and his replacement is snider (though marte or polanco would play center, snider would be the bench replacement) for a 162 game season, the pirates would have at least 10 less wins over 162 games if not more.  

IDK, i just kinda wondered how or if individual outstanding performances could be factored in.  its a flawed stat in my opinion.  if cutch robs a home run in the 9th to win the game, his WAR would have to go up a whole game as he won the game by himself.  

right now i would say cutch's WAR should be somewhere around 20 because without him, this is a 30-50 ish team.
I'm ok with WAR, but I do agree with you in a certain aspect.  To me, the superstars of the league are above the WAR metric.  I said 2 years ago when the Pirates something like 45-30 in at some point in July - you know, before the total collapse - that McCutchen's WAR was grossly understated.  His WAR at the time was something like 3.5 to 4.  I said his WAR - at that time - was legitimately around 20.  My reasoning for that was not just the impact on that season as it was going, but also the direction of that team.

Had McCutchen not been there, that team easily would have been something like 35-40 and would likely have been sellers, instead of buyers at the deadline.  My proof of that is the following... at the end of July, the Pirates were 59-44.  They then proceeded to go 20-39 the rest of the way.  McCutchen's OPS from August 1 through the end of the season was .779.  While reasonably respectable, his August was .693 and it was truly the beginning of the end.  In a 34-game stretch, the Pirates were 13-21 when McCutchen had a .688 OPS during that period.

In 2012...
Tabata - .664 OPS (-0.5 WAR)
Snider - .652 OPS (0.3 WAR)
Marte - .737 OPS (1.1 WAR)
Holt - .682 OPS (-0.2 WAR)
Sutton - .697 OPS (-0.3 WAR)
McLouth - .385 OPS (0.6 WAR)

I ask you, what combination of this group would have produced what McCutchen did from April through the end of July?  Their total combined WAR for the whole season was 1.0.  I'm sorry, but if that group mixed and matched covered for McCutchen up to July 31, there's no way that team has more than 30 wins.

Totally agree. I am not an expert by any means on WAR or even close to an expert. In fact, I admit I am probably not that knowledgeable on it other than what the definition of it is.

But in saying that, I totally agree with your point on overall impact of Star players. They are grossly undervalued from a WAR standpoint.



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___________

 

  

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Posted: 07/16/2014 8:34 PM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



cferrel3 wrote:

WAR isn't suppose to be a science, so those that are saying some of us use it as that are flat out wrong, and by a long shot lol.  The only people using it incorrectly are the people I see ranting and raving that it is a "made up stat" (all stats are "made up" btw).  It's simply the best available tool for evaluating one player against another.  It is suppose to be used in conjunction with other statistics and evaluation methods.  It's pretty accurate though and a lot of time and effort was put forth to develop the statistic.  It's far from perfect, but it is the best available tool by far and a pretty good evaluation method. 

To those thinking we would be a ton of games worse without McCutchen, we would be, but not 20 or something like that.  That's a ridiculous thought.  We wouldn't be just losing his statistics, someone else would get those at-bats and at least provide some value.  I think WAR is pretty accurate this season, I think the Pirates would be around 44-51 without him, that seems about right to me.  Were Cutch hurt from day one Polanco would have been up in the Majors and making up for some of the lost value along with Harrison getting some of those at-bats and providing value, however, Snider and Tabata would be providing negative value like they were earlier in the season.  I don't see who would really think we would be worse than that record, that seems about right to me.  It isn't 100% accurate and isn't suppose to be, but it's pretty close.

Yes, I believe that's reasonable.  The thing to take into account is the ramifications as well though.  Let's say things go as we think the rest of the way.  The Pirates would finish about say, 86-76 (does that seem reasonable)?  Ok, with that in mind... as you have said, you think the Pirates would be about 44-51... that percentage alone is on pace for a 75 win season.  So right there, theoretically McCutchen is an 11 WAR player.  But that's not the end.  At 44-51, the Pirates would be sellers, no?  Who would get traded?  There would have to be some players like Gaby, Davis, Liriano, Volquez... possibly guys in the bullpen.  In essence, there would be AAA players playing that wouldn't normally have been here.  Taking that into account, the team that was once on pace for 75 wins... maybe now wins 69.  In the end, you have a team that could have won 86, but now may only win 69 all because McCutchen misses the season.  You basically have McCutchen actually being worth 17 games while by seasons end, he may be a 7.5.

Another thing I'd like to add is that I disagree with your thinking that Polanco would have been up from Day 1.  In fact, I think the exact opposite.  I think we might not have seen Polanco until maybe July or even August.  Reason being, why start a potential stud's clock earlier than necessary in a lost season?
#fringeprospect

Last edited 07/16/2014 8:38 PM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 07/17/2014 4:27 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


None of that has to do with WAR. It is a comparative statistic that determines the amount of wins a player accounts for over a replacement level player. Don't use a specific Pirates player or prospect, just call said player player X with a WAR of 0.

Of course there would be dominos that would fall, but that has nothing to do with WAR being the best available comparative statistic there is.
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Posted: 07/17/2014 6:48 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



cferrel3 wrote: None of that has to do with WAR. It is a comparative statistic that determines the amount of wins a player accounts for over a replacement level player. Don't use a specific Pirates player or prospect, just call said player player X with a WAR of 0.

Of course there would be dominos that would fall, but that has nothing to do with WAR being the best available comparative statistic there is.
I'm confident that ANY replacement player playing for McCutchen would result in the Pirates winning a hell of a lot less than 7 games.  Like I said above as well, that group that I listed all had a WAR of 1, so they were better than a replacement player.  That group would NOT have won only 7 games less than McCutchen.  It probably would have been closer to double that, lol.

No, WAR does not factor in the dominoes - and it understandably can't, but it doesn't mean I can't use logic and do it myself.

I think WAR is a reasonable approximation of value for basically 90-95% of the league.  I think it loses a lot of it's impact with the elite players in the league.  Last year, Brandon Barnes (Astros CF), played in 136 games with a WAR of 1.0.  If he and his .240 AVG and .635 OPS was our CF last year, I'm very comfortable saying that the Pirates don't finish with .500 or better record.  Right there alone is saying that Cutch's WAR is at least 13.
#fringeprospect

Last edited 07/17/2014 6:49 AM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 07/17/2014 7:54 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote: None of that has to do with WAR. It is a comparative statistic that determines the amount of wins a player accounts for over a replacement level player. Don't use a specific Pirates player or prospect, just call said player player X with a WAR of 0.

Of course there would be dominos that would fall, but that has nothing to do with WAR being the best available comparative statistic there is.
I'm confident that ANY replacement player playing for McCutchen would result in the Pirates winning a hell of a lot less than 7 games.  Like I said above as well, that group that I listed all had a WAR of 1, so they were better than a replacement player.  That group would NOT have won only 7 games less than McCutchen.  It probably would have been closer to double that, lol.

No, WAR does not factor in the dominoes - and it understandably can't, but it doesn't mean I can't use logic and do it myself.

I think WAR is a reasonable approximation of value for basically 90-95% of the league.  I think it loses a lot of it's impact with the elite players in the league.  Last year, Brandon Barnes (Astros CF), played in 136 games with a WAR of 1.0.  If he and his .240 AVG and .635 OPS was our CF last year, I'm very comfortable saying that the Pirates don't finish with .500 or better record.  Right there alone is saying that Cutch's WAR is at least 13.
Win Values are measures of production, not impact. Was Cutch's impact a 13 game swing in standings last year? Maybe. But that doesn't mean he contributed 13 wins worth of production. And let's not forget the Pirates by most measures should not have won 94 games last season. They won 6 games more than their Pythag record suggests they should have. You could try to make the argument that some of that was Cutch's hidden ancillary value, but it was more likely the result of great bullpen work, sequencing, and luck. Don't get me wrong. I do think star players like Cutch have added value beyond their WAR. I think it is mostly from other players seeing a slight bump in their WAR from having a great player protecting them in the lineup. An example being Jordy Mercer last season who raked in the 28 starts he made in the 2 hole of the order. But a value of 15 or 20 wins? That is crazy.
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Posted: 07/17/2014 9:08 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



mjdouble wrote:
TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote: None of that has to do with WAR. It is a comparative statistic that determines the amount of wins a player accounts for over a replacement level player. Don't use a specific Pirates player or prospect, just call said player player X with a WAR of 0.

Of course there would be dominos that would fall, but that has nothing to do with WAR being the best available comparative statistic there is.
I'm confident that ANY replacement player playing for McCutchen would result in the Pirates winning a hell of a lot less than 7 games.  Like I said above as well, that group that I listed all had a WAR of 1, so they were better than a replacement player.  That group would NOT have won only 7 games less than McCutchen.  It probably would have been closer to double that, lol.

No, WAR does not factor in the dominoes - and it understandably can't, but it doesn't mean I can't use logic and do it myself.

I think WAR is a reasonable approximation of value for basically 90-95% of the league.  I think it loses a lot of it's impact with the elite players in the league.  Last year, Brandon Barnes (Astros CF), played in 136 games with a WAR of 1.0.  If he and his .240 AVG and .635 OPS was our CF last year, I'm very comfortable saying that the Pirates don't finish with .500 or better record.  Right there alone is saying that Cutch's WAR is at least 13.
Win Values are measures of production, not impact. Was Cutch's impact a 13 game swing in standings last year? Maybe. But that doesn't mean he contributed 13 wins worth of production. And let's not forget the Pirates by most measures should not have won 94 games last season. They won 6 games more than their Pythag record suggests they should have. You could try to make the argument that some of that was Cutch's hidden ancillary value, but it was more likely the result of great bullpen work, sequencing, and luck. Don't get me wrong. I do think star players like Cutch have added value beyond their WAR. I think it is mostly from other players seeing a slight bump in their WAR from having a great player protecting them in the lineup. An example being Jordy Mercer last season who raked in the 28 starts he made in the 2 hole of the order. But a value of 15 or 20 wins? That is crazy.
To me, production = impact.  I produce, therefore I have impact.  They aren't mutually exclusive.

If they're talking purely on a stat-in / stat-out formulation, they need to change their acronym / wording.  Wins Above Replacement means exactly that.  If you replace Player X with Player Y, here is your value.  Player X has production, that production has an impact.  Same with Player Y.  You can't have production without impact.  You can't have an impact, unless you produce.  They go hand-in-hand.

Another reason to change their acronym / wording is that because players produce and have an impact, they impact others.  The Pirates lineup produces at the level to which it does because McCutchen is in it.  If Tabata and his .245 avg / .670 OPS is batting 3rd, that lineup is much less productive ("production").  So, while McCutchen isn't in the game, the production that you're getting from said replacement player, impacts the team.

Again, as I said above, it's reasonable for virtually the whole league.  I think it loses it's impact/importance when you talk about the elite players.
#fringeprospect

Last edited 07/17/2014 9:14 AM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 07/17/2014 10:31 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


This is the Zoolander and his "Center for Children Who Can't Read Good" situation. You guys are taking a model and being far too literal with the application. It's just a tool. You have to determine the limitations of every analytical method and account/acknowledge them, but this is comical.
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Posted: 07/17/2014 11:37 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



BAMSTEELERFAN wrote: This is the Zoolander and his "Center for Children Who Can't Read Good" situation. You guys are taking a model and being far too literal with the application. It's just a tool. You have to determine the limitations of every analytical method and account/acknowledge them, but this is comical.

Bingo.
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Posted: 07/17/2014 11:46 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 


No player in baseball is worth 20 wins period.

The term is WAR. Which stands for wins ABOVE replacement.

A team made up of all replacement level players or a team of 25 players who generate 0.0 WAR each would win 33-39 games generally based on the model and which site you're using as one uses a higher baseline than the other. They wouldn't go 0-162 under any circumstance.

Again no player is worth 20 wins ever. The Houston Astros were the worst team in baseball last season. They won 51 games last season. If you simply added Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen to the team they don't suddenly get 40 more wins because you added those two superstars.

Look Andrew McCutchen had comparable seasons in 2012 and 2013. In one year the team won 79 games and the other year the team won 94 games. Andrew McCutchen had very little to do with the record turnaround. Instead it was luck and a better supporting cast and some players getting better.

Teams deal with injuries to superstars all the time. It's going to hurt for sure to lose a key player but it won't be crippling. Yadier Molina is the Cardinals best player and he's going to miss a lot of time. The team isn't going to completely fall apart though. It will likely cost them a game or two on the win side which is actually a lot. However it would never come close to 20 under any circumstance.

If you take away McCutchen from the Pirates on opening day they don't get 20 wins worse. If the Pirates were to win 85 games this season there is no way that they would of won 65 had McCutchen tore his ACL on opening day. If you replace him with a replacement level player you probably end up with 75 or 76 wins which is a massive drop off.

Any player in baseball is severely limited in his impact in what he can do because he can have as little as 3 at bats a game. If McCutchen bats in the 7th inning there stands a fairly good chance he will never bat again for the rest of that game. As good as McCutchen is he still fails more than the majority of the time. The impact of a superstar means very little in baseball. Oakland is a team that is devoid of a legitimate superstar. They lead the league in wins, runs scored and run allowed. Josh Donaldson is the teams best player and he's actually had a far worse season this year then he did last yet the team looks like at worst it will be as good as it was last year if not better. If he breaks his arm tomorrow the team isn't going go into the toilet and fall out of the face of contention when they lost a player of comparable value to McCutchen.
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Posted: 07/17/2014 11:58 AM

Re: WAR... what is it good for 



katoy2j wrote: No player in baseball is worth 20 wins period.

The term is WAR. Which stands for wins ABOVE replacement.

A team made up of all replacement level players or a team of 25 players who generate 0.0 WAR each would win 33-39 games generally based on the model and which site you're using as one uses a higher baseline than the other. They wouldn't go 0-162 under any circumstance.

Again no player is worth 20 wins ever. The Houston Astros were the worst team in baseball last season. They won 51 games last season. If you simply added Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen to the team they don't suddenly get 40 more wins because you added those two superstars.

Look Andrew McCutchen had comparable seasons in 2012 and 2013. In one year the team won 79 games and the other year the team won 94 games. Andrew McCutchen had very little to do with the record turnaround. Instead it was luck and a better supporting cast and some players getting better.

Teams deal with injuries to superstars all the time. It's going to hurt for sure to lose a key player but it won't be crippling. Yadier Molina is the Cardinals best player and he's going to miss a lot of time. The team isn't going to completely fall apart though. It will likely cost them a game or two on the win side which is actually a lot. However it would never come close to 20 under any circumstance.

If you take away McCutchen from the Pirates on opening day they don't get 20 wins worse. If the Pirates were to win 85 games this season there is no way that they would of won 65 had McCutchen tore his ACL on opening day. If you replace him with a replacement level player you probably end up with 75 or 76 wins which is a massive drop off.

Any player in baseball is severely limited in his impact in what he can do because he can have as little as 3 at bats a game. If McCutchen bats in the 7th inning there stands a fairly good chance he will never bat again for the rest of that game. As good as McCutchen is he still fails more than the majority of the time. The impact of a superstar means very little in baseball. Oakland is a team that is devoid of a legitimate superstar. They lead the league in wins, runs scored and run allowed. Josh Donaldson is the teams best player and he's actually had a far worse season this year then he did last yet the team looks like at worst it will be as good as it was last year if not better. If he breaks his arm tomorrow the team isn't going go into the toilet and fall out of the face of contention when they lost a player of comparable value to McCutchen.
This pretty much is exactly what I said.

My example of 20 games was my reference to the 2012 season.  With that, the Pirates wouldn't have been buyers, they'd have been sellers come the trade deadline.  At that point, the ML roster would have theoretically gotten worse... I believe we could all agree with that.  It's possible that 2012 team could have won 15+ games more than they did because of the potential trading off of assets.
#fringeprospect
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