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Tulo Auction

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Posted: 07/09/2014 5:35 PM

Tulo Auction 


Evidently Tulo has gone to management and informed them that he is open to a trade. Assuming Nutting can get over committing twice as many dollars as he put up to acquire Seven Springs, what would it take in terms of players and would you do it? I am thinking Mercer, Glasnow, Bell and another of our top 20. Maybe McGuire or Sanchez.
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Posted: 07/09/2014 5:40 PM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I doubt Colorado would even consider a trade with the Pirates for Tulo, without Polanco and/or Cole included as part of the return. You are talking about the best SS in baseball, maybe the best player in baseball. A bagful of minor league prospects will not likely cut it.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 5:34 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


They won't want McCutchen, that would be counter-productive.  Cutch is only signed for 4 more years.  By the time they became relevant, they'd either have to trade him or just lose him.  They'd want Polanco.  The question is, how much more would they want.  I'd give up Hanson and one of the 3 pitchers plus Polanco, but that would be it.  To me, there really isn't another team in baseball who would be able to match that talent-wise.

Note... I'm not saying the Pirates should do that or that I would actually do that, just that I'd think that would be the reasonable cost.  Personally, I'm not moving Polanco for anyone... period.  Not even Mike Trout.
#fringeprospect

Last edited 07/10/2014 6:01 AM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 07/10/2014 5:55 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I could see him ending up in Boston - they need a SS and they have a lot of good prospects to offer back - such as Boegarts and Betts.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 6:49 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I love Tulo. I really do. But as TBay said earlier... I would have an extremely hard time giving up Polanco plus for anyone. For Trout, yeah ok for sure but that is not happening. I might even do it for Tulo but man it would not be easy for me to part with Polanco.

I think Polanco has superstar written all over him but Tulo is obviously already a superstar so I don't know what I would do.

As good as Tulo is, my primary concern is will he start declining at some point. Also will injuries come up again and how much has Coors field helped him not sure what his home/road splits are maybe he is not being helped by playing at Coors.
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  • mbark74
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Posted: 07/10/2014 7:02 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


Why does everyone want to give up Polanco and the farm for Tulo? Way too much for a player not needed. Tulo may be the best player in MLB now but Mercer isn't chopped liver. Mercer is getting better all the time and is showing himself to be a clutch hitter. I know matching Mercer with Tulo is like putting a Chevy to a Rolls but Mercer is going to be really good for a long time. What is needed is a starting pitcher. Ian Kennedy would be very nice in the rotation and the cost should be reasonable. Maybe get AJ again or Zieglar (spelling). They wouldn't break the bank and would be better for this team at this time. Mercer is not a problem now and he's just going to get better and better.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 7:26 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I don't think anyone said that they wanted or would give up Polanco. In fact the way I read these posts it's the exact opposite.


---------------------------------------------
--- mbark74 wrote:

Why does everyone want to give up Polanco and the farm for Tulo? Way too much for a player not needed. Tulo may be the best player in MLB now but Mercer isn't chopped liver. Mercer is getting better all the time and is showing himself to be a clutch hitter. I know matching Mercer with Tulo is like putting a Chevy to a Rolls but Mercer is going to be really good for a long time. What is needed is a starting pitcher. Ian Kennedy would be very nice in the rotation and the cost should be reasonable. Maybe get AJ again or Zieglar (spelling). They wouldn't break the bank and would be better for this team at this time. Mercer is not a problem now and he's just going to get better and better.

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Posted: 07/10/2014 7:33 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



abitoutside wrote: Evidently Tulo has gone to management and informed them that he is open to a trade. Assuming Nutting can get over committing twice as many dollars as he put up to acquire Seven Springs, what would it take in terms of players and would you do it? I am thinking Mercer, Glasnow, Bell and another of our top 20. Maybe McGuire or Sanchez.
Does that mean the Rockies wouldn't do 7 Springs for Tulo straight up?  What if we threw in Jay Hay?
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Posted: 07/10/2014 7:55 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


Just my opinion, but I wouldn't hesitate to give up Polanco and one of Glasnow/Kingham to get Tulo.

Tulo is a one of a kind player, arguably the best hitter in the NL and at a position (SS) that usually requires a concession of offense for defense.  Tulo is exactly the type of player you can build around, and would give up two franchise players (along with Cutch).  Yes, Polanco Is a very talented player, but outfielders can be replaced and our system has several capable right fielders in it now (Meadows, Bell, etc.).

My only concern over making the trade would be Tulo's injury history.  He has a tough time staying on the field.  But chances have to be taken to reach the next level.

Again, just my opinion.  This isn't a numbers or dollars decision, and is instead more of a vision thing.  Do you want to use our strong farm system to provide for a decent stream of good players for many years, or to try to build a potential World Series team right now (and for the next couple of years).  I'm a "pedal to the medal" type of fan, and won't worry about what the team will look like in 2020 until it gets here.  I certainly understand the opposite approach, but just don't buy into it.  That's why I applauded the A's recent trade for pitching.

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Posted: 07/10/2014 8:14 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


The Pirates will be lucky to afford Neil Walker or Pedro Alvarez next year.  Yes I said "or".  There is no way even a dime of Tulo's remaining $126 million on his contract comes from the Pirates.

Last edited 07/10/2014 8:37 AM by Sangue

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Posted: 07/10/2014 8:17 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



Sangue wrote: The Pirates will be lucky to afford Neil Walker or Pedro Alvarez next year.  Yes I said "or".  There is no way even a dime of Tulo's $134 million contract comes from the Pirates.


That is a problem with the "vision thing".  (you have to have some)

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Posted: 07/10/2014 8:30 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



gr1111 wrote:
Sangue wrote: The Pirates will be lucky to afford Neil Walker or Pedro Alvarez next year.  Yes I said "or".  There is no way even a dime of Tulo's $134 million contract comes from the Pirates.


That is a problem with the "vision thing".  (you have to have some)
The Pirates certainly need a substantial player batting behind Cutch to give them a shot at a World Series.  Clemente had his Stargell, Parker had his Stargell...
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Posted: 07/10/2014 8:40 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



Sangue wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
Sangue wrote: The Pirates will be lucky to afford Neil Walker or Pedro Alvarez next year.  Yes I said "or".  There is no way even a dime of Tulo's $134 million contract comes from the Pirates.


That is a problem with the "vision thing".  (you have to have some)
The Pirates certainly need a substantial player batting behind Cutch to give them a shot at a World Series.  Clemente had his Stargell, Parker had his Stargell...


Yes.  Cutch wouldn't be pitched around any more.

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Posted: 07/10/2014 10:11 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I think a package of Pedro, Bell, Kingman could get Tulo.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 11:15 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



vinnybravo wrote: I think a package of Pedro, Bell, Kingman could get Tulo.
Why would Colorado want Pedro?  He'll be a FA after next season.  I wouldn't take the chance that he'd re-sign... I wouldn't to re-sign him if I'm Colorado.  So it's basically a Pedro rental, Bell and Kingham for Tulo.  I don't see how that would be enough.

My guess is that if you don't include Polanco in the deal, it would have to include at least 3 of our top 5 prospects, plus more.  Probably Taillon, Glasnow, Bell, Ramirez, and McGuire.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 07/10/2014 11:16 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


You probably wouldn't have to give up Polanco to get Tulowitzki. If I were the Pirates I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 swap considering Polanco is playing well right now.

One thing I think a lot of people fail to realize is that when trades are made it's not about player X productions weighed against player Y production. There are a lot of moving parts. A player who has a .800 OPS can be far more valuable than a player that has a .900 OPS. Think of it this way Polanco makes 500K and Tulowitzki will 20 million. Both are good players. Nobody will deny that at the moment that Tulowitzki is better. However Polanco is probably more valuable at the moment because he's doing well in the majors and is much cheaper than Tulowitzki. So you evaluate the two as say you had 20 million to spend. Would you rather have just Troy Tulowitzki? Or would you rather have Polanco and whatever that 19.5 million can buy you even in an overinflated free agent market? If you have 19.5 million available you can get a really good player. So it becomes Polanco and that 19.5 million being more valuable than Tulowitzki. The finances play a massive part in the value of a player.

I doubt you would need to include Mercer in a deal either as they have Rutledge they could slide over to shortstop to replace Tulowitzki.

Now the thing with high ticket players is that they don't tend to get traded for nearly as much as you think they would get. The reason for this is that they have such a large contract. The teams that are loaded with good prospects tend to be lower revenue teams that probably couldn't absorb them. Last year there were rumours the White Sox wanted Jameson Taillon for Alex Rios. With the dollars and term owed to Rios it wasn't even close to fair value. Rios was eventually traded for a C level prospect.

Now the Rockies for Tulowitzki would want young and cheap talent. The more upside the better. The Pirates though are going to want to keep the guys close to the majors. They will want to surround those guys around Tulowitzki. That means guys like Taillon, Kingham, Polanco, Bell and Glasnow should not be included in any deal. All those guys have a chance to be on the team next season at some point. The Pirates are fortunate though that they could still put together a pretty appealing package with some of their other players.

If you offered the Rockies Alen Hanson, Austin Meadows and Luis Heredia that's a pretty tough package for other teams to beat. That is two top 100 prospects and another very talented prospect in Heredia. That is more or less enough in the prospect department to get a deal done provided you aren't asking the Rockies to pick up significant salary. You probably add in Josh Harrison to give them a major league player. That fact he was selected to the all-star game and is 26 years old and will just be entering arbitration after the season has his value at a fairly high level. If I were the Pirates I would be trying to capitalize on that. Then you make them take back Jose Tabata in the deal so it makes it easier to absorb some of the contract of Tulowitzki. Tabata could actually be a useful piece for them as if they decide to trade Tulowitzki it likely means they will also look to trade other veterans like Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer so Tabata can easily slide in to an everyday role. His contract is also not a huge hindrance. If he plays poorly it's not a huge amount of money. If he plays well though especially in Coors field he has three team options at a very affordable rate.

So the total package becomes Hanson, Meadows, Heredia, Harrison and Tabata. That makes it a 5 for 1 swap. Two of the players can play immediately. Hanson is 1-2 years away and Meadows and Heredia are hard to pinpoint how long they would take. Meadows though is very highly regarded and a lot of people think he's a Mike Trout clone. If the Rockies believe that then they know that they have to get that type of player now. They don't get traded when they reach higher levels. A package like that is one that would be difficult to beat. Not only does a team have to beat the Pirates offer of two top 100 prospects in Meadows and Hanson, a promising pitching prospect in Heredia, a in season all-star making the minimum in Harrison and a league average outfielder in Tabata they also have to be able to absorb the contract. Could Seattle offer Tajuan Walker, Nick Franklin, DJ Peterson and James Paxton which would be a better offer? Well they could but they couldn't afford to add another 20 million dollar player into their payroll when they're already paying Cano and Hernandez almost 50 million a season combined. The Yankees could take on the contract to replace Jeter next season but they don't have the players in their system to make a better offer.

Boston would be the heavy favourite to get Tulowitzki if they wanted him. They can absorb his salary and have a deep farm system. It doesn't mean they would want to do it though. If they decide they want to stick with Bogaerts as their shortstop then the market for Tulowitzki gets considerably smaller. He's going to want to go to a team that is a contender. The Pirates are positioned that way for the term of his contract. They also have the financial flexibility to fit him in quite easily into their payroll. They have 23 million guaranteed in salaries for next season. That includes 4.1 million from Tabata. Tulowitzki would simply replace the money that you're paying Wandy Rodriguez, Jose Tabata, Clint Barmes and Edison Volquez this season. A 20 million dollar player is only a hindrance when he's surrounded by other high cost players. This is why you don't want to have "market rate players" like James Loney. To find a guy that can give you what Loney can do is not that hard. Loney has a .707 OPS this year. Lambo had a .703 OPS last season in the majors. That's why if you aren't going to have a superstar it's better to roll with younger players because they will be comparable to average players. At a much lower cost however. Allowing you to have guys like Troy Tulowitzki even on a bottom third payroll. It's also a reason I wouldn't be extending Neil Walker for big bucks. He's a good but not great player. You don't want to be giving him 12 million a year when you can probably find a player in your system to give you a .750 OPS.

Just doing a quick glance of all the teams in baseball I came across only a handful of teams that would fit both criteria in being able to offer up a suitable package in trade and absorb the salary and have a reasonable need at shortstop. Those teams are the Red Sox, Pirates, Cardinals, Mets, Dodgers, Twins, Astros and Cubs. Now while the Cubs, Astros, Twins and Mets could offer up great packages to get a deal done I don't think Tulowitzki would want to go to those teams as they aren't winning teams. I believe he has a NTC so he has to be okay with the move which also limits the trade value he has. I would have a hard time believing that they would trade him in the division either so the Dodgers are likely out. Boston would be the favourite for sure. The Cardinals could be a fit and have the talent as well but it would mean they would need to move all kinds of guys around the diamond to accommodate such a move. The Rockies might be in a bad spot if all these teams decide they don't want Tulowitzki for whatever reason. I can see a situation where he ends up on the Yankees next season. If that happens its because a lot of the better fits like the teams I mentioned above didn't want to either pay the price in prospects or take on a big salary commitment. I certainly don't see any teams trading away a Polanco, Glasnow, and plus, plus package for Tulowitzki. The guys that will be moving will be lower level names than that. The guys who get traded for huge packages are the guys who are young and have reasonable contracts. Like a Giancarlo Stanton. Guys who are 30 and over with over 100 million owed to them are held down in trade value. Even if they're superstars because they have so few destinations that can fit.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 11:21 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 


I would trade Hanson, Meadows, Heredia, Harrison, and Tabata in a second for Tulo. I would even help the Pirates pack up those players belongings and ship them to Colorado.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 11:29 AM

Re: Tulo Auction 



panthers2533 wrote: I would trade Hanson, Meadows, Heredia, Harrison, and Tabata in a second for Tulo. I would even help the Pirates pack up those players belongings and ship them to Colorado.
Ditto.

Good stuff Katoy.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 07/10/2014 1:31 PM

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Tallion, Bell OR Meadows, Sanchez, Luis Heredia, and Harrison.  I don't think they would bite but I'd offer it.

Tallion is obviously out right now with Tommy John surgery.  Odds are he bounces back just as good as before, if not better.

Bell or Meadows can be deemed expendable.  We have loads of OF talent and they're both nice prospects.

Sanchez isn't the top prospect they were hoping for.  I think his ceiling is as a mid-level/mediocre starting catcher in the majors.

Heredia is young with high upside but I recently just read an article that his development isn't going as they initially hoped.

Harrison is a fan favorite and playing better than anyone thought he was capable of.  If there's a time to capitalize on his value, it's now.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 1:59 PM

Re: Tulo Auction 


Walker looks like he's capable of 20+ HR, .275+ BA per year for the next 3-4 years.  To my knowledge, the Pirates have never had a 2B like that in their 127 year history.
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