Posted: 02/10/2014 10:04 PM
Posted: 02/10/2014 10:05 PM
Posted: 02/11/2014 6:00 AM
Posted: 02/11/2014 10:03 AM
Posted: 02/11/2014 1:12 PM
Posted: 02/11/2014 1:30 PM
vinnybravo wrote: My wild card this season is the Brewers. I think they could surprise this season and pass the Pirates and the Reds for 2nd in the Division. Again this is all based on normal team injuries and if a major injury to a team (Cutch) then anything could happen.
Posted: 02/11/2014 1:41 PM
cferrel3 wrote: I agree about the Braves, I think they will still be very good and a playoff contender.But, with the Reds I'm suppose to believe that Billy Hamilton will have a .332 OBP in the Majors after having a .308 OBP in AAA last year, Brandon Phillips will have his highest OBP percentage in 3 years, and Todd Frazier will slug 50 points higher than last year?Yeah, not buying that. The Reds are taking a step back this year. And then the window fully closes after this season.
Posted: 02/11/2014 1:50 PM
Sangue wrote: vinnybravo wrote: My wild card this season is the Brewers. I think they could surprise this season and pass the Pirates and the Reds for 2nd in the Division. Again this is all based on normal team injuries and if a major injury to a team (Cutch) then anything could happen.I think the Brewers and Cubs will both be better in 2014 than 2013. I don't think they will catch the Reds of Pirates though. The Cardinals should be favored to win the division by 5+ games. The Pirates should finish 2nd with a 50/50 shot at one of the Wild Cards.
Posted: 02/11/2014 2:02 PM
fishmong wrote: Sangue wrote: vinnybravo wrote: My wild card this season is the Brewers. I think they could surprise this season and pass the Pirates and the Reds for 2nd in the Division. Again this is all based on normal team injuries and if a major injury to a team (Cutch) then anything could happen.I think the Brewers and Cubs will both be better in 2014 than 2013. I don't think they will catch the Reds of Pirates though. The Cardinals should be favored to win the division by 5+ games. The Pirates should finish 2nd with a 50/50 shot at one of the Wild Cards.The Brewers should be better in 2014, but I'm not seeing where the Cubs improvement will come from. The Cubs are going to continue to build for 2015, none of there impact prospects are ready to contribute this year.
Posted: 02/11/2014 3:00 PM
Posted: 02/11/2014 3:13 PM
Posted: 02/11/2014 3:18 PM
katoy2j wrote: .A lot has also been made out of the Braves but their success has a lot more to do with a hot start. 84-65 was their record after the first 13 games of the year. They started the season off at 12-1 and that allowed them to make the playoffs pretty easily especially since Washington really underperformed. Washington is likely to bounce back some and Atlanta is not as strong as they were last year. They are definitely worse. They are more of a 85 win team now in my book.Washington should win the division fairly easily. The Braves will be in the 80's and the rest of the teams will likely be in the 70's.
Posted: 02/11/2014 3:26 PM
katoy2j wrote: So why will Lindor be playing in the majors this season then?Considering Baez is a top 10 prospect in baseball and the top prospect on a team with one of the top farm systems in baseball I would say he qualifies as an impact prospect. The Cubs will likely call him up in June so the idea that the Cubs won't have an impact prospect to help them this year isn't correct. He obviously won't be at his peak level next year but he has the talent to hit 15 homers by accident in half a season so he certainly will be a contributor.
Last edited 02/11/2014 3:29 PM by fishmong
Posted: 02/11/2014 4:47 PM
fishmong wrote: Washington should have won that divisions pretty easily last year as well. What's this nonsense about the Braves hot start? The Braves success over a 162 game season was because of 13 games in April??????? C'mon man, the Braves 12-1 start had as much to do with their finish as the Pirates 1-5 start.You claim Atlanta is worse than last year, but I don't know what you are basing that on. Where's the decline going to come from? I can make a good case that the Braves will see improvement out of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton in 2014. I also can't imagine BJ Upton and Dan Uggla will combine to be worth -3 wins. Either those guys will improve or they will be replaced. Losing McCann and Hudson will matter, but not as much as getting replacement level production out of BJ Upton and Dan Uggla will.
Posted: 02/12/2014 8:09 AM
Posted: 02/12/2014 9:09 AM
williamjpellas wrote: As cynical as katoy's post is, he has some hard data to back it up. And particularly now that PED's are (supposedly) being purged from the game---or at least, mostly purged from the game---it would seem that age-related decline for most players, especially position players, is back to pre-PED era levels. Of course, baseball is not, or at least was not, an unsentimental enterprise. Part of the joy of being a fan was being able to wax eloquent about the legendary deeds of this or that player when they were young, and then introducing younger fans (or offspring) to that player in the later years of their career. Even if the player was no longer able to do what they once did as often as they once did it, there was still a realistic chance that you might be watching on a day when they recaptured what they once were---even if only for a moment. The players' union, of course, has basically priced sentimentality out of the game. So I guess there's no legitimate reason, for example, for McCutchen to cry about being unceremoniously shipped out of town once he hits 30 years of age, since it is now prohibitively expensive---and also damaging to the entire salary structure of the team---to pay for sentiment and nostalgia. That had its limits even back in the day, of course; I am speaking of players who are still productive even if less than what they were. But what the gigantic salaries of current players have done is to remove the option, in most cases, of a hometown team keeping a diminshed but still decent player around for the other, intangible benefits that would otherwise accrue to the team. Oh, well.
Last edited 02/12/2014 9:12 AM by cferrel3
Posted: 02/12/2014 9:13 AM
Posted: 02/12/2014 8:59 PM
katoy2j wrote: I think you grossly underestimate the decline older players go through. You are way to bullish on Shin Soo Choo and his aging curve and I think in a few years you're going to see how ugly that deal will get. As you get older you are much more susceptible to injury and in all but a small few of players there is pretty easily noticeable decline in skills.Lets just take a small sample of names. Using age 30 or 31 as a starting point for evaluation.Jimmy Rollins27 - .811 OPS28 - .875 OPS29 - .786 OPS30 - .719 OPS31 - .694 OPS32 - .736 OPS33 - .743 OPS34 - .667 OPS27-29 he was an .825 OPS player. 30 and on he has been a .710 OPS playerDan Uggla28 - .874 OPS29 - .813 OPS30 - .877 OPS31 - .764 OPS32 - .732 OPS33 - .674 OPS28-30 he was a .855 OPS player. 31 and on he has been a .725 OPS playerAlbert Pujols28 - .1.102 OPS29 - .1.101 OPS30 - .1.011 OPS31 - .906 OPS32 - .859 OPS33 - .767 OPS28-30 he was a 1.070 OPS player. 31 and on he has been a .845 OPS player.Mark Texieira27 - 1.020 OPS28 - .962 OPS29 - .948 OPS30 - .846 OPS31 - .835 OPS32 - .807 OPS27-29 he was a .975 OPS player. 30-32 he was a .830 player.Adrian Gonzalez27 - .958 OPS28 - .904 OPS29 - .957 OPS30 - .806 OPS31 - .803 OPS27-29 he was a .940 OPS player. 30 and on he has been a .805 OPS player.There is a reason why the peak of players is generally in the 27-30 years. Sure some guys last a little longer than others before they decline but trying to figure those guys out is very difficult. You might as well bet 0 or 00 on roulette. These are not just random names. These guys were MVP's and elite players at their respective positions. All of them had a 100 point or more drop in OPS.Best course of action is when a player hits 30 just wash your hands from him and move onto the next guy. That's why it's in the Pirates best interest not to extend Neil Walker and after the 2017 season which represent age 30 for McCutchen he should be traded no matter how good the team is. Get a bunch of prospects for him and let some other team give him a 250 million dollar extension. The Pirates can replace him with Austin Meadows in 2018. Pitchers don't have the same extremes in decline usually. The worry with them is breaking down
Posted: 02/12/2014 9:27 PM
Last edited 02/12/2014 9:27 PM by katoy2j
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