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Starling Marte Projections

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Posted: 02/19/2013 8:23 AM

Starling Marte Projections 


Pretty encouraging.  I'd take any of these projections.

http://www.fangraphs.com/stats...amp;position=OF
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Posted: 02/19/2013 8:34 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 


Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.
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Posted: 02/19/2013 9:11 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



cferrel3 wrote: Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.
Let's hope so.  Hopefully Hurdle allows him to get 30+ stolen bases.  There is a chance he hits 18-20 Home Runs.  I think his average will end up in the .260's.
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Posted: 02/19/2013 11:11 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 


Let's hope so. Hopefully Hurdle allows him to get 30+ stolen bases. There is a chance he hits 18-20 Home Runs. I think his average will end up in the .260's.


Yep.  I think these are very likely numbers for Marte.  I suspect he will have some seasons where his average will be lower than you'd like, but that he will be "toolsy" enough, and do enough other things well, that you can live with the occasional klunker.  Marte is a big dude.  I think as he gets older and stronger that he will hit for a lot more power.  If he maximizes his potential I am 100% certain that his ceiling is higher than Andrew McCutchen's.  I'm dead serious: I think Marte has superstar tools.  It's just a question of what he does with those tools.  I could see Eric-Davis-In-His-Prime numbers in his future if he can continue to progress.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 6:34 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



williamjpellas wrote: Let's hope so. Hopefully Hurdle allows him to get 30+ stolen bases. There is a chance he hits 18-20 Home Runs. I think his average will end up in the .260's.


Yep.  I think these are very likely numbers for Marte.  I suspect he will have some seasons where his average will be lower than you'd like, but that he will be "toolsy" enough, and do enough other things well, that you can live with the occasional klunker.  Marte is a big dude.  I think as he gets older and stronger that he will hit for a lot more power.  If he maximizes his potential I am 100% certain that his ceiling is higher than Andrew McCutchen's.  I'm dead serious: I think Marte has superstar tools.  It's just a question of what he does with those tools.  I could see Eric-Davis-In-His-Prime numbers in his future if he can continue to progress.
Dont steal my Eric Davis comparison!! :) I hope he could put up ED numbers. He just reminds me of Davis by his build and how he stands at the plate.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 7:23 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



vinnybravo wrote:

Dont steal my Eric Davis comparison!! :) I hope he could put up ED numbers. He just reminds me of Davis by his build and how he stands at the plate.
I don't think Hurdle will allow Marte to run like Davis did - so it will be hard for Marte to get over 30 steals.  Hurdle will bunt him over instead.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 8:22 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



Sangue wrote:
vinnybravo wrote:

Dont steal my Eric Davis comparison!! :) I hope he could put up ED numbers. He just reminds me of Davis by his build and how he stands at the plate.
I don't think Hurdle will allow Marte to run like Davis did - so it will be hard for Marte to get over 30 steals.  Hurdle will bunt him over instead.

So true, Neil Walker better hope it isn't in that 2-hole or he will be doing a lot of bunting this season lol.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 8:50 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 


It will depend on Marte's success rate.  If he keeps up the 70% rate from that last year, it will probably depend on the situation (steal early, bunt late).  But if Marte can get it over 75-80%, I think Hurdle will let him go.   He let Cutch run last year despite limited success.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 02/20/2013 8:51 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



cferrel3 wrote: Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.

For his first full year in the pros and his first 162 game season, I'm fine with even the Fan(26) prediction.  Basically, those numbers are equivalent to what he did in about 25% of a season last year.  If he can show me that he can maintain that over a full season, I'm good.  Next year is when I'd like to see him break out.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 02/20/2013 10:51 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote: Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.

For his first full year in the pros and his first 162 game season, I'm fine with even the Fan(26) prediction.  Basically, those numbers are equivalent to what he did in about 25% of a season last year.  If he can show me that he can maintain that over a full season, I'm good.  Next year is when I'd like to see him break out.

Yeah I can agree with all of that and I would be fine with that.  However, I am playing a hunch lol.  I just think he is an elite talent in the hit category.  His power might not be there yet, but I think he will hit over .280 and then eventually hit .300 every year.  I think he is just that good of a hitter.  I honestly think he could hit .280+ with 20 hrs and 30+ steals.  But, he won't have huge rbi numbers as he will probably be hitting leadoff (not his fault) and probably won't have a huge OBP because he still needs to improve in his plate discipline.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 11:25 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



cferrel3 wrote:
TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote: Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.

For his first full year in the pros and his first 162 game season, I'm fine with even the Fan(26) prediction.  Basically, those numbers are equivalent to what he did in about 25% of a season last year.  If he can show me that he can maintain that over a full season, I'm good.  Next year is when I'd like to see him break out.

Yeah I can agree with all of that and I would be fine with that.  However, I am playing a hunch lol.  I just think he is an elite talent in the hit category.  His power might not be there yet, but I think he will hit over .280 and then eventually hit .300 every year.  I think he is just that good of a hitter.  I honestly think he could hit .280+ with 20 hrs and 30+ steals.  But, he won't have huge rbi numbers as he will probably be hitting leadoff (not his fault) and probably won't have a huge OBP because he still needs to improve in his plate discipline.
If he can do that, awesome!  He just doesn't need to do that well to make me happy.  I do think your numbers are quite reasonable if Pedro can hit 4th and Marte bat between him and Jones.  Me, I don't want him batting 1st anyway.  I'd much rather have Walker there than Marte.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 02/20/2013 11:34 AM

Re: Starling Marte Projections 



TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote:
TBayXXXVII wrote:
cferrel3 wrote: Call me crazy, but I think he is going to have an even better season than those four project.  Although Bill James projection I would definitely take.

For his first full year in the pros and his first 162 game season, I'm fine with even the Fan(26) prediction.  Basically, those numbers are equivalent to what he did in about 25% of a season last year.  If he can show me that he can maintain that over a full season, I'm good.  Next year is when I'd like to see him break out.

Yeah I can agree with all of that and I would be fine with that.  However, I am playing a hunch lol.  I just think he is an elite talent in the hit category.  His power might not be there yet, but I think he will hit over .280 and then eventually hit .300 every year.  I think he is just that good of a hitter.  I honestly think he could hit .280+ with 20 hrs and 30+ steals.  But, he won't have huge rbi numbers as he will probably be hitting leadoff (not his fault) and probably won't have a huge OBP because he still needs to improve in his plate discipline.
If he can do that, awesome!  He just doesn't need to do that well to make me happy.  I do think your numbers are quite reasonable if Pedro can hit 4th and Marte bat between him and Jones.  Me, I don't want him batting 1st anyway.  I'd much rather have Walker there than Marte.

Completely agree with all of that.  That's why, ideally, I think Tabata having a breakout season would be better for the team.  I don't think Marte is a leadoff hitter either.  So if Tabata can break out and bat leadoff the Pirates could do just what you said, hit Marte 5th between Alvarez and Jones and keep Walker in the 2-hole.  That lineup would have great balance of righty/lefty, and also have good balance of speed/on-base and power.

Obviously I'm not going to be picky, if Snider breaks out and takes ahold of the RF position then great.  That is better than it being a "black hole" again.  But, Tabata breaking out would just be even better for the Pirates this season and moving forward.
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