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My top 100 prospect list

Posted: 02/15/2013 2:05 PM

My top 100 prospect list 


So it came up in another thread and I was working on it for my own reasons but here is my top 100 prospect list


  1. Jurickson Profar
  2. Dylan Bundy
  3. Oscar Taveras
  4. Wil Myers
  5. Gerrit Cole
  6. Mike Zunino
  7. Xander Bogaerts
  8. Jameson Taillon
  9. Shelby Miller
  10. Javier Baez
  11. Jonathan Singleton
  12. Anthony Rendon
  13. Noah Snydergaard
  14. Carlos Correa
  15. Alen Hanson
  16. Taijuan Walker
  17. Billy Hamilton
  18. Trevor Bauer
  19. Jose Fernandez
  20. Taylor Guerrieri
  21. Travis D’Arnaud
  22. Mike Olt
  23. Miguel Sano
  24. Matt Barnes
  25. Aaron Sanchez
  26. Nick Castellanos
  27. Danny Hultzen
  28. Nolan Arenado
  29. Jorge Soler
  30. Zack  Wheeler
  31. Christian Yelich
  32. Kyle Zimmer
  33. Gary Sanchez
  34. Jake Odorizzi
  35. Tyler Skaggs
  36. Carlos Martinez
  37. Jackie Bradley
  38. Trevor Roesenthal
  39. Francisco Lindor
  40. Mason Williams
  41. Gregory Polanco
  42. Kevin Gausman
  43. Byron Buxton
  44. Justin Nicolino
  45. Brian Goodwin
  46. Austin Hedges
  47. Michael Wacha
  48. Alex Meyer
  49. Jedd Gyorko
  50. Archie Bradley
  51. George Springer
  52. Cody Bukel
  53. John Lamb
  54. Kolten Wong
  55. Bubba Starling
  56. Addison Russell
  57. Julio Teheran
  58. Tony Cingrani
  59. Kyle Gibson
  60. Casey Kelly
  61. Adam Eaton
  62. Luis Heredia
  63. David Dahl
  64. Hunter Morris
  65. Jared Cosart
  66. Chris Archer
  67. Lucas Giolito
  68. Darin Ruf
  69. Nick Franklin
  70. Wily Peralta
  71. Tyler Austin
  72. Aaron Hicks
  73. A.J. Cole
  74. Joc Pederson
  75. Bruce Rondon
  76. Robbie Grossman
  77. Robert Stephenson
  78. Hak-Ju Lee
  79. Dan Straily
  80. Jesse Biddle
  81. Marcus Stroman
  82. Lucas Sims
  83. Oswaldo Arcia
  84. Jorge Alfaro
  85. Delino DeShields Jr.
  86. Lance McCullers
  87. Ethan Martin
  88. Avisail Garcia
  89. Martin Perez
  90. Tyler Thornburg
  91. Allen Webster
  92. Corey Seager
  93. Roberto Osuna
  94. Mike Montgomery
  95. Zach Lee
  96. Luis Mateo
  97. Eddie Rosario
  98. Joe Wieland
  99. Luis Sardinas
  100. Manny Banuelos

Last edited 02/16/2013 10:24 AM by katoy2j

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Posted: 02/15/2013 3:05 PM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


While I disagree with you, A LOT, I respect your opinions. Can you give me some context in your rankings, i.e. how much better is your 15th ranked prospect than your 50th? If you prefer "high-ceiling" guys to "safer" what value do you give to the risk of not reaching the ceiling?

What value do you place on defense among position player prospects? The typical school of thought is that certain positions should value certain tools over others, for example at SS/CF fielding the most important of the 5 tools, followed by arm strength for SS and speed for CF.
Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 02/15/2013 3:54 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


The rankings are based on my opinion of the players. I ranked them by who I would rather have. For example if I would not trade Gerrit Cole for anyone except for Profar, Bundy, Taveras and Myers.

I value superstar potential because even if you don't reach you're ceiling you will end up having value. Safe players of they take a step back don't carry much value.

In terms of rankings I would say picks 1-11 are superstar caliber players. 12-26 are all-star level players. 27-55 are above average major league players that might make a couple of all-star games and players 56-100 are less safe and could have boom or bust extremes. A year from now half of them will move up and half of them will fall off the list.

Defense plays a role. If a player can stay at the position long term he gets a plus. If he has to move off a position he gets a ding. At the end of the day offense is more important than defense. A plus offensive player who is average on defense will be worth more than a average offensive player who is a plus on defense at the same position. Obviously there are multiple levels.

I know you will make an issue with Lindor. I see a good defensive shortstop that will be an average hitter, below average power and decent speed. I see Alcides Escobar. A player like that has value but he's behind guys like Xander Bogaerts. Javier Baez and Alen Hanson who have the ability to be cornerstone offensive players. Lindor doesn't have that in my opinion. He's in the Brian Goodwin range of player. For MLB players comparisson Lindor is similar to Michael Bourn on your team. He's a good player but you don't take him over Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout
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Posted: 02/15/2013 5:58 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


I really thought you might put Tony Sanchez at number 100 just for fun. I cant argue with the list at all because I have not put in the time you have on all these prospects.

For the record I dont think Profar will be an all star. I think he will be a decent player, but not a really good player.
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Posted: 02/15/2013 7:05 PM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


I'd have Oscar Taveras number 1.  I think Profar, with his defense/offense combo will be a very valuable player, though no where near "Tulo/Ripken", (few are).  Taveras is starting to look like a serious rarity.  At 20 he put up some awesome numbers in AA.  Bundy would be 2, but for some could be an easy choice for 1 and I wouldn't argue.  Profar would be 3 for me.  He didn't have the greatest of debut's, but he has a sweet stroke, good athleticism and glove, and he's a child against men at 19 and wasn't overwhelmed.
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Posted: 02/15/2013 9:08 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


These are your personal rankings, I'm not going to argue that Francisco Lindor should be higher on your personal rankings. Lindor is ranked top 15-20 by all the prospect guys I pay attention to, I didn't ask for your list as some sort of justification of how good he is. I was genuinely curious how you see the guys in the prospect world. I'll use your list for reference in other discussions that come up later in the year.
Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 02/15/2013 11:10 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


I think Profar will be an absolute stud. I have loved the guy for a few years. I think he will be a .300 hitter with 20 homers and 30 stolen bases with elite defense. I think a comparable to him would be Derek Jeter with a little less average and more power and better defense. A guy who uses the entire field and is a tough out.

Baez and Boegarts I have as more of a Miguel Tejada type player. Solid average, plus power, questionable OBP skills.

Taveras is a stud and I also though about putting him at number 1. I think there is a good possibility he ends up as a corner outfielder though so that is why I decided to put him behind Bundy and Profar.
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Posted: 02/16/2013 6:41 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


FYI you have Hultzen on there twice.
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Posted: 02/16/2013 6:43 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


You have Gyorko significantly lower than most lists. Why? Also where is your friend Gose? Is he not eligible as a prospect anymore?
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Posted: 02/16/2013 10:21 AM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


Gose has more than 130 AB's so he doesn't qualify as a prospect anymore. Similar to Jeff Locke and Starling Marte who just eclipsed.

Ironically one of the greatest rookie seasons in baseball almost never happened as Mike Trout barely kept his rookie eligibility in 2011 getting only 123 at bats.

I don't believe in Gyorko's power. I think he'll be similar to Neil Walker in that they will try and put him at second base but I'm not sure it will play out well. Walker was extremely athletic I just don't see it with Gyorko. I think he ends up moving back to third and becomes a 15 homer guy at third. Good average and OBP but the lack of power leads me to believe he'll be a middle of the pack third baseman long term.

I will update the list. I rushed it a bit putting it out
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Posted: 02/17/2013 11:20 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


I value superstar potential because even if you don't reach you're ceiling you will end up having value. Safe players of they take a step back don't carry much value.

All prospects are inherently risky as they fail at a very high rate. Every prospect has a ceiling and a floor. Unless you feel differently we can probably agree that prospects with "superstar" potential are the ones with "higher ceilings", and the "safer" prospects are the ones with the "higher floors". In the context of Top 100 prospects, if the "safe" players take enough of a step back that they don't carry much value then they shouldn't be top 100 prospects to begin with. All these guys have upside. Outside of a few guys with both high ceilings and high floors, there's more risk associated with the high ceiling types than the high floor types of reaching that upside. Almost by definition "safe" players don't take a step back, they simply don't hit their upside, whereas the "superstar" potential type has a wider range of outcomes. 

Obviously we don't know what the future holds, so when we talk about individual prospects there will always be some uncertainty. You have very high expectations Alen Hanson, you have him ranked higher than some really solid guys. I don't think you are really taking into account the risk that he doesn't reach his ceiling AND you are giving him a higher ceiling than is warranted. The best case scenario for Hanson is 2011 Asdrubal Cabrera with more speed but worse fielding in my opinion. The chance he doesn't reach this ceiling is high as it's well reported he will have to improve greatly to stick at SS, and even at 2B is defense is average at best. Besides his defense his bat still far from ML ready. While he had a GREAT year in 2012, there's big difference between Low-A ball pitchers and MLB pitchers. A lot can still go wrong between now and establishing himself at the big league level. 

Defense plays a role. If a player can stay at the position long term he gets a plus. If he has to move off a position he gets a ding. At the end of the day offense is more important than defense. A plus offensive player who is average on defense will be worth more than a average offensive player who is a plus on defense at the same position. Obviously there are multiple levels.

Defense is about more than just if a guy can stay at a position. The value of a player isn't determined solely but his bat. In 2012 Darwin Barney(.653 OPS) was just as valuable as Aaron Hill(.882 OPS) and Dustin Pedroia(.797 OPS) due to his Gold Glove defense. Brendan Ryan(.555 OPS) was on par with Jose Reyes and Ian Desmond because he is such a good fielder.

It's easier to evaluate offense so I get the bias, but to say offense is more important than defense is a little too simplistic. I'd agree with that statement at every position except for C, SS, and CF. When you evaluate a players tools different positions have different priorities. Here's the common rule of thumb.  


Catcher

Fielding

Arm

Hitting

Power

Speed

First base

Hitting

Power

Fielding

Arm

Speed

Second base

Hitting

Fielding

Power

Speed

Arm

Third Base

Hitting

Power

Fielding

Arm

Speed

Shortstop

Fielding

Arm

Hitting

Speed

Power

Left field

Hitting

Power

Fielding

Arm

Speed

Center field

Fielding

Hitting

Speed

Power

Arm

Right field

Hitting

Power

Arm

Fielding

Speed

 


Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 02/18/2013 6:29 AM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 



katoy2j wrote: The rankings are based on my opinion of the players. I ranked them by who I would rather have. For example if I would not trade Gerrit Cole for anyone except for Profar, Bundy, Taveras and Myers.

I value superstar potential because even if you don't reach you're ceiling you will end up having value. Safe players of they take a step back don't carry much value.

In terms of rankings I would say picks 1-11 are superstar caliber players. 12-26 are all-star level players. 27-55 are above average major league players that might make a couple of all-star games and players 56-100 are less safe and could have boom or bust extremes. A year from now half of them will move up and half of them will fall off the list.

Defense plays a role. If a player can stay at the position long term he gets a plus. If he has to move off a position he gets a ding. At the end of the day offense is more important than defense. A plus offensive player who is average on defense will be worth more than a average offensive player who is a plus on defense at the same position. Obviously there are multiple levels.

I know you will make an issue with Lindor. I see a good defensive shortstop that will be an average hitter, below average power and decent speed. I see Alcides Escobar. A player like that has value but he's behind guys like Xander Bogaerts. Javier Baez and Alen Hanson who have the ability to be cornerstone offensive players. Lindor doesn't have that in my opinion. He's in the Brian Goodwin range of player. For MLB players comparisson Lindor is similar to Michael Bourn on your team. He's a good player but you don't take him over Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout
Unless you are talking about Barmes. Because his defense trumps everything not matter what. Even if he is one of the worst offensive SS in the league right now.
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Posted: 02/18/2013 3:22 PM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


At SS, the bat, while no entirely unimportant, takes a back seat to the glove.
Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 02/20/2013 1:44 AM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


BA released their top 100 with future tools grades, here are the Pirates on the list.

7 Gerrit Cole Fastball 80 Slider 70 Change 60 Control 55 Command 50 
MLB #9 FB 8/8 SL 6/7 Curve 5/6 Change 5/6 Control 5/6 Overall 6/7

19 Jameson Taillon Fastball 75 Curve 65 Change 50 Control 60 Command 55 
MLB #15 FB 6/7 Curve 4/6 Change 4/6 Control 4/5 Overall 5/6

51 Gregory Polonco Bat 55 Power 60 Speed 60 Defense 60 Arm 55 
MLB #65 Hit 4/5 Power 4/5 Run 7/7 Arm 4/5 Field 5/6 Overall 4/6

61 Alen Hanson Bat 60 Power 40 Speed 60 Defense 55 Arm 50
MLB #54 Hit 4/6 Power 3/4 Run 5/5 Arm 6/6 Field 5/6 Overall 4/6

78 Luis Heredia Fastball 65 Curve 60 Change 55 Control 55 Command 50
MLB Unranked FB 6/7 Curve 4/6 Change 5/6 Control 4/6 overall 5/6

Players are graded on a 2-8 scale for both present and future tools. 2-3 is well below average, 4 is below average, 5 is average, 6 is above average and 7-8 is plus.
Blame it on "a certain someone"

Last edited 02/20/2013 2:10 AM by fishmong

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Posted: 02/20/2013 2:21 AM

RE: My top 100 prospect list 


From the chat link

Mike (Pittsburgh):  Not a believer in Alen Hanson? He put up great numbers last year.
J.J. Cooper: Big believers in Alen Hanson, which is why he's at No. 61. If you make the Top 100, we are believing in you. We ranked another 830 prospects who aren't cracking this list.

Andy (Lynchburg, VA):  Who has a higher ceiling between Polanco and Dahl and which of the two is more likely to reach it?
J.J. Cooper: I'd say Dahl's bat has a little more potential than Polanco's and he's younger, so Dahl for ceiling. Polanco I'd give a tick more likelihood of reaching his ceiling, largely because he's done it in full-season ball and Dahl hasn't yet.

Fred (NYC):  I know Polanco is a year older, but can you envision a Taveras-like ascension on next year's list if he can repeat his 2012 performance in Hi-A? Can you even make the argument that Polanco's tools are even louder than Oscar's (with the exception of the hit tool, of course)?
J.J. Cooper: His other tools may be louder than Taveras' (well Taveras' power is a better too), but saying that reminds me of Bill James line when someone compared Jeffrey Hammonds to Rickey Henderson except for the walks. As James put it, that's like saying, "Dolly Parton like except for the breasts."

Unlisted (Long Island):  Seems like Alan Hansen slipped a bit ?
J.J. Cooper: Not really. We really like him. He ranked at the back end of the Top 50 in our midseason rankings. Since then we've added in the 2012 draftees, so moving down 10 spots or so isn't really much of a big deal at all.

JR (NY):  Those 5-tool grades for the top 100 seem awfully generous for everyone. Is that based on their ceiling or where they are currently; I'm assuming (hoping) the former, right?
J.J. Cooper: Ceiling, not current. Current wouldn't give you much information at all, especially for guys in rookie ball. Carlos Correa would read something like Hit: 20. Power: 30. Fielding: 20. Arm: 70. Speed: 55. A whole lot of pitchers would be listed with 25-30 control too. A current tool is what you think that player would do in the majors right now. Miguel Sano might be a stud prospect, but if you put him in the big leagues right now, he'd struggle to hit .220. On the 20-80 scale, anything under .240 is a 20.

Daniel (Montana):  Care to offer up your personal cheeseballs? And which guys do you see making dramatic movements up this board next year?
J.J. Cooper: I'm a giant Gregory Polanco fan. He's one I wouldn't be surprised to see climb this list in the next year. Jose Fernandez is way too prominent now to be a cheeseball, so I now have to share him with everyone else. Deeper down, Adalberto Mondesi could rocket up this list next year.

Jason (Philly):  Josh Bell was a top 100 player last year. He didnt have the chance to play due to injury. I'm assuming he still has the same skill set as last year ranking. Was he close to the top 100 this year?
J.J. Cooper: Close, but you have to be worried about a player who has now had two significant knee injuries before his first full pro season. A lost year of development and at-bats is nothing to sneeze at, and Bell has yet to show he's fully recovered from the knee injury.


Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 02/20/2013 9:39 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


I'm anxious to see what Bell does this season. I haven't heard anything about him lately as far as the knee injury is concerned, so I'm hopeful he'll be healthy and put a strong season together. If he does, he'll be top 50 material next season.




I spent most of my money on beer and football. The rest I just wasted.
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Posted: 02/20/2013 9:56 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


I was wondering about Bell myself.  I remember when he injured the knee, he was originally diagnosed with the same injury Jeremy Lin had with the Knicks.  At first, it sounded as though he would be back before the end of the season.  I never heard another peep about him.
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13
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Posted: 02/20/2013 10:04 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


From what I remember, Bell had issues with swelling in his knee after the surgery. It became a big enough problem that the Bucs decided to err on the side of caution and shut him down for the remainder of the season. Not sure how he fared with the problem in the off-season, though.

---------------------------------------------
--- GhostOfPBG wrote:

I was wondering about Bell myself.  I remember when he injured the knee, he was originally diagnosed with the same injury Jeremy Lin had with the Knicks.  At first, it sounded as though he would be back before the end of the season.  I never heard another peep about him.

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I spent most of my money on beer and football. The rest I just wasted.

Last edited 02/20/2013 10:20 AM by burghsports3

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Posted: 02/20/2013 11:09 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 



burghsports3 wrote: From what I remember, Bell had issues with swelling in his knee after the surgery. It became a big enough problem that the Bucs decided to err on the side of caution and shut him down for the remainder of the season. Not sure how he fared with the problem in the off-season, though.

---------------------------------------------
--- GhostOfPBG wrote:

I was wondering about Bell myself.  I remember when he injured the knee, he was originally diagnosed with the same injury Jeremy Lin had with the Knicks.  At first, it sounded as though he would be back before the end of the season.  I never heard another peep about him.

---------------------------------------------

Last I read the Pirates brass said he was 100% and would be good to go at the start of Spring Training.

I think they will put him back at West Virginia with the thought that if he dominates there early they will move him up to Bradenton.
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Posted: 02/21/2013 9:57 AM

Re: My top 100 prospect list 


Good to hear. Hopefully there'll be no long term effects from the injury.

---------------------------------------------
--- cferrel3 wrote:


burghsports3 wrote: From what I remember, Bell had issues with swelling in his knee after the surgery. It became a big enough problem that the Bucs decided to err on the side of caution and shut him down for the remainder of the season. Not sure how he fared with the problem in the off-season, though.

---------------------------------------------
--- GhostOfPBG wrote:

I was wondering about Bell myself.  I remember when he injured the knee, he was originally diagnosed with the same injury Jeremy Lin had with the Knicks.  At first, it sounded as though he would be back before the end of the season.  I never heard another peep about him.

---------------------------------------------

Last I read the Pirates brass said he was 100% and would be good to go at the start of Spring Training.

I think they will put him back at West Virginia with the thought that if he dominates there early they will move him up to Bradenton.

---------------------------------------------




I spent most of my money on beer and football. The rest I just wasted.
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