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Would it be possible for a young guy to

Posted: 02/05/2013 5:10 PM

Would it be possible for a young guy to 


make the big club right out of spring training?  Cole and/or Sanchez in particular?

Admittedly, I'm not up to par on the money and contract issues so I really have no idea how much it could potentially cost us down the road.  But I'm just curious if Cole or Sanchez were just playing out of their mind if they might just force their way up right out of the gate. 

Since Sanchez will definitely be backing up Martin regardless of how each of them play in the spring, I don't really expect him to stick.  Having said that, management has made it pretty clear that McKenry isn't their guy.  Maybe Sanchez beats him out noidea

As for Cole, I'm trying to picture what the faithful would do if Karstens, Jmac, and the other young guys are failing to impress in the spring while Cole comes out looking like a young Roger Clemens; only to be sent down in favor of a guy like McPherson to start the season.  I think there would be riots in the streets.
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13
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Posted: 02/06/2013 5:29 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



GhostOfPBG wrote: make the big club right out of spring training?  Cole and/or Sanchez in particular?

Admittedly, I'm not up to par on the money and contract issues so I really have no idea how much it could potentially cost us down the road.  But I'm just curious if Cole or Sanchez were just playing out of their mind if they might just force their way up right out of the gate. 

Since Sanchez will definitely be backing up Martin regardless of how each of them play in the spring, I don't really expect him to stick.  Having said that, management has made it pretty clear that McKenry isn't their guy.  Maybe Sanchez beats him out noidea

As for Cole, I'm trying to picture what the faithful would do if Karstens, Jmac, and the other young guys are failing to impress in the spring while Cole comes out looking like a young Roger Clemens; only to be sent down in favor of a guy like McPherson to start the season.  I think there would be riots in the streets.

The idea of Sanchez beating out McKenry---or perhaps just being given the job over McKenry---is interesting.  McKenry definitely has the typical profile of a number two or platoon catcher from a hitting standpoint; he has decent power even if he doesn't hit for a good average.  However, you generally like your second catcher to be better on defense than McKenry is.  He's an adequate receiver and does well enough around the dish, but obviously can't throw anybody out on the basepaths, if last season is any indication.  So it might be that Sanchez, who appears to be much better at that aspect of the game, could be considered for the job rather than McKenry. 


I don't see any way that Cole breaks camp with the big club.  There's no sense risking that he'll become a "Super Two" and gain an additional year in arbitration.  I think they send him to Triple A and bring him up in June or, at the latest, after the All-Star break.
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Posted: 02/06/2013 5:44 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



Not really sure how management has made it clear that McKhenry isn't their guy. Perhaps they have made that call pertaining to him being an everyday catcher, but certainly not as a steady back up. In fact I don't think Sanchez could do anything in ST that would send him north. The only way that is going to happen is if one of Martin or the Fort gets injured. I also don't think Cole is going to get a shot until at least July due to service time.
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--- GhostOfPBG wrote:

make the big club right out of spring training?  Cole and/or Sanchez in particular?

Admittedly, I'm not up to par on the money and contract issues so I really have no idea how much it could potentially cost us down the road.  But I'm just curious if Cole or Sanchez were just playing out of their mind if they might just force their way up right out of the gate. 

Since Sanchez will definitely be backing up Martin regardless of how each of them play in the spring, I don't really expect him to stick.  Having said that, management has made it pretty clear that McKenry isn't their guy.  Maybe Sanchez beats him out noidea

As for Cole, I'm trying to picture what the faithful would do if Karstens, Jmac, and the other young guys are failing to impress in the spring while Cole comes out looking like a young Roger Clemens; only to be sent down in favor of a guy like McPherson to start the season.  I think there would be riots in the streets.

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Posted: 02/06/2013 5:59 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



GhostOfPBG wrote: make the big club right out of spring training?  Cole and/or Sanchez in particular?

Admittedly, I'm not up to par on the money and contract issues so I really have no idea how much it could potentially cost us down the road.  But I'm just curious if Cole or Sanchez were just playing out of their mind if they might just force their way up right out of the gate. 

Since Sanchez will definitely be backing up Martin regardless of how each of them play in the spring, I don't really expect him to stick.  Having said that, management has made it pretty clear that McKenry isn't their guy.  Maybe Sanchez beats him out noidea

As for Cole, I'm trying to picture what the faithful would do if Karstens, Jmac, and the other young guys are failing to impress in the spring while Cole comes out looking like a young Roger Clemens; only to be sent down in favor of a guy like McPherson to start the season.  I think there would be riots in the streets.
My guess is that unless any prospect shows complete domination, they all will start in Indy (or Altoona).  I actually do think Cole could outperform a couple guys who end up making the trip to Pittsburgh... guys like Locke, McPherson, and Liriano (if he even pitches).  But, as Willie said, this organization will not allow play on the field to trump finances.

Specifically in Sanchez's case, even if he does outperform McKenry or even Martin, I'd rather him go to Indy and play everyday than backup Martin in Pittsburgh.  There's no way that even if Sanchez plays better in the spring that he'll be nameed the starter... starting in Indy is better than backing up in Pittsburgh.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 02/06/2013 5:59 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


If Martin and McKenry stay healthy, we may not see Sanchez for two years (except September callups).  I wouldn't be surprised if he's traded and never wears the Pirate uniform.

I don't think there is any chance we see Cole until July.  The savings on Super Two could be 12-18 million in Cole's 6th year and 3-4 million in his third year.
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Posted: 02/06/2013 4:31 PM

RE: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


Starting the season with Cole instead of calling him up in June would cost the Pirates 18-25 million dollars.

If you start the season with Cole he becomes a free agent after the 2018 season. If you call him up in June he can't be a free agent till after the 2019 season. So you likely lose him a year earlier with the benefit being the extra few starts. You don't lose out on anything financially really you just miss out on the extra half year of control. Call him up in June and you get 6.6 years of him in the majors. Start the season with him and you only get 6 years. The extra year in 2019 means a lot more than the extra handful of starts he's missing out on.

If you call him up in May then he becomes a super 2 player but you still have him for 2019. In this case you probably get 5-6 extra starts as opposed to calling him up in June. The cost for this though is massive. This is likely how his contract would break down if he gets called up in May

2013 - 500K
2014 - 500K
2015 - 500K
2016 - 6 million (super 2)
2017 - 11 million
2018 - 15 million
2019 - 20 million

Now if you call him up in June it breaks down as follows

2013 - 500K
2014 - 500K
2015 - 500K
2016 - 500K
2017 - 6 million
2018 - 11 million
2019 - 15 million

So the cost for those 6 extra starts is approximately 20 million dollars. The Pirates would be absolutely stupid to make a decision like that. For a non impact player it doesn't make a huge difference but a small market team needs to maximize service time and minimize salary for star players. They did it with McCutchen, Alvarez and Marte so I'm 99% sure they would do it with Cole. Smart organizations work this way as it until they change the rules you need to expose it. Wil Myers could start for the Rays on opening day but instead they will wait till June. Unless of course he signs one of those extensions before you start meaningful time in the majors like Longoria and Moore did to get called up sooner. Gerritt Cole isn't a good candidate for one of those as unlike Moore and Myers who were later round picks and got relatively small signing bonuses, Cole was the first pick overall and doesn't need financial security. He got a 8 million dollar bonus or whatever it was. Guys that are willing to sign are guys who don't want to risk making the minimum for 3 years and suffering an injury and never making any meaningful money.
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Posted: 02/06/2013 5:08 PM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


Thanks katoy, I was waiting to see if you'd weigh in.  That would definitely be quite costly when put into perspective.  But still, I can see an argument being made for taking the chance. 

I agree with you that it won't happen after seeing the costly implications down the road, but in theory if the Pirates did go for it and started him to open the season, we'd be saying "a lot can happen between now and 2018" and go ahead and try for success now.

I'm sure the point is moot anyway since I doubt it happens, but expect me to re-hash this topic at the end of May if we are floating around .500 while the back half of our rotation is struggling and Cole is dominating AAA biggrin
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13
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Posted: 02/06/2013 11:52 PM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


I can also see the argument for taking the chance, and the argument definitely involves trying to win on the field now and not worrying about Nutting's finances in 2018.

I have no issue with Cole starting the season in AAA if he needs more seasoning. But if he shows in spring training that he's one of the five best starters, he should come north.



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--- GhostOfPBG wrote:

Thanks katoy, I was waiting to see if you'd weigh in.  That would definitely be quite costly when put into perspective.  But still, I can see an argument being made for taking the chance. 

I agree with you that it won't happen after seeing the costly implications down the road, but in theory if the Pirates did go for it and started him to open the season, we'd be saying "a lot can happen between now and 2018" and go ahead and try for success now.

I'm sure the point is moot anyway since I doubt it happens, but expect me to re-hash this topic at the end of May if we are floating around .500 while the back half of our rotation is struggling and Cole is dominating AAA biggrin

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Posted: 02/07/2013 5:54 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



GhostOfPBG wrote: Thanks katoy, I was waiting to see if you'd weigh in.  That would definitely be quite costly when put into perspective.  But still, I can see an argument being made for taking the chance. 

I agree with you that it won't happen after seeing the costly implications down the road, but in theory if the Pirates did go for it and started him to open the season, we'd be saying "a lot can happen between now and 2018" and go ahead and try for success now.

I'm sure the point is moot anyway since I doubt it happens, but expect me to re-hash this topic at the end of May if we are floating around .500 while the back half of our rotation is struggling and Cole is dominating AAA biggrin
It also would be nice to see Cole and his 100+ MPH fastball in the majors.  Tommy John surgery for pitchers like Cole seem to be a question of "when" as opposed to "if".  It would be nice to see the real Cole prior to Tommy John as opposed to just the 94-95 MPH post Tommy John.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 7:38 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


As far as I know, Nolan Ryan never required Tommy John surgery. It's not about how hard you throw that leads to arm injuries, it's about mechanics.




I spent most of my money on beer and football. The rest I just wasted.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 9:36 AM

RE: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


It's not just worrying about Nutting's finances you lose an entire year of service. I'm more than happy to sacrifice missing 10 starts in 2013 of a 22 year old Gerritt Cole for the ability to get 35 starts of a 28 year old Gerritt Cole in 2019. Call him up to start the season and he's a free agent after 2018. Wait till June and he's a free agent after 2019.

Generally you're going to get better as a baseball player till you hit a certain age and then start to decline. If Cole is one of your best 5 pitchers to start 2013 is irrelevant. Decisions should never be made with only one season in mind. Are we likely to make the playoffs in 2013 because we have Cole at the start of the season? I seriously doubt it. How often does a rookie pitcher make that kind of impact. I would much rather have an in his prime 2019 season of Cole at age 28. The Pirates can fill in the gaps with McPherson, Karstens, Locke, etc until June.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 9:50 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


If Cole is as good as advertised, the Pirates will never be able to afford him in arbitration anyway -- so he'll be gone before the last of his arbitration years.

Just a difference of opinion between us, but if Cole can help us win ANY more games in the 2013 season than we could without him, I could not care less about saving a year of control.

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Posted: 02/07/2013 10:07 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



gr1111 wrote: If Cole is as good as advertised, the Pirates will never be able to afford him in arbitration anyway -- so he'll be gone before the last of his arbitration years.

Just a difference of opinion between us, but if Cole can help us win ANY more games in the 2013 season than we could without him, I could not care less about saving a year of control.
Agreed.

Power pitches are always one pitch away from ending their career.

The Bucs starting him in April is the equivalent of a promising young player signing an extension for a little less money -- get what you can now, because you don't how the situation could change in 5 years.

I'd also add that the financial implications won't have any effect at all for another 3-4 years.

I can absolutely see your case katoy.  But personally, I'm just tired of waiting til next year.  If Cole is mowing people down in March and our other options are getting shelled, I'll be pretty unhappy to see him sent down.
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13

Last edited 02/07/2013 10:11 AM by GhostOfPBG

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Posted: 02/07/2013 10:21 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



gr1111 wrote: If Cole is as good as advertised, the Pirates will never be able to afford him in arbitration anyway -- so he'll be gone before the last of his arbitration years.

Just a difference of opinion between us, but if Cole can help us win ANY more games in the 2013 season than we could without him, I could not care less about saving a year of control.

After re-visiting the past I've concluded that I don't want Cole in Pittsburgh until July 1.  It has nothing to do with performance or money, just simply maximizing Cole's time here.  I reference Cole Hamels because I think Cole can be just as good as Hamels.  Look at Hamel's in 2009.  That was by far his worst season in the majors.  When did it come?  After he pitched 260 innings in 2008.  The Phillies basically lost a full year of Hamels' maximum potential because they over worked him in a season where they were all hitting and little pitching.

Now, for the Phillies that's ok because they don't have the same financial constaints that the Pirates do, so they didn't care because whenever his contract was up, they were just going to break the bank with him anyway.  The Pirates on the other hand, based on Katoy's financial projections, will never pay Cole more than $11M.  So, the Pirates need to get the most out of his starts, reguardless of money or age, that they can.  Keeping his innings pitched at a reasonable progression is the best way to accomplish that.

I'd rather Cole come up in July, and get about 12-15 starts and throw about 70-90 innings then come up in April and pitch 200+ innings in his first season... or worse yet, pull a Washington Nationals and cut Cole off at 180 innings at the end of August or begginning of September.  I want the best possible 180 starts I can get out of him... reguardless of how much money it costs or how old or young he is.  A gradual increase in IP's each year is the best way to go.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 02/07/2013 10:39 AM

RE: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


Mowing people down or hitting well in March mean very little. Remember who the best hitters for the Pirates were in March last year? Matt Hague and Starling Marte. Hague made the team and did next to nothing and Marte was sent down. When Marte was called up he still wasn't a finished product but I'm sure he was a lot better than he would of been had he started the year in the majors without getting any time in AAA. I don't care how good Cole is in March, skipping him over AAA is a bad idea at such a young age.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 11:00 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 


Agree that Cole should start in Triple-A, regardless of whether or not he has a great spring training. We're in no hurry to rush him up, as we've got what looks like 5 or 6 starters right now who are capable of getting major league hitters out.




I spent most of my money on beer and football. The rest I just wasted.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 11:29 AM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



burghsports3 wrote: Agree that Cole should start in Triple-A, regardless of whether or not he has a great spring training. We're in no hurry to rush him up, as we've got what looks like 5 or 6 starters right now who are capable of getting major league hitters out.

Definitely with yinz guys on this one.  Another guy who was probably damaged by overuse early in his career was Kevin Millwood.  He went on to a respectable body of work, but I have always believed he would have had a better career had he not been abused by the Braves during his first full season.
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Posted: 02/07/2013 12:04 PM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



williamjpellas wrote:
burghsports3 wrote: Agree that Cole should start in Triple-A, regardless of whether or not he has a great spring training. We're in no hurry to rush him up, as we've got what looks like 5 or 6 starters right now who are capable of getting major league hitters out.

Definitely with yinz guys on this one.  Another guy who was probably damaged by overuse early in his career was Kevin Millwood.  He went on to a respectable body of work, but I have always believed he would have had a better career had he not been abused by the Braves during his first full season.


I'm not sure how arm abuse is relevant to this discussion, in that he is going to be pitching somewhere -- either in Pittsburgh or in AAA.  His innings can and should be managed/monitored in either location.

There are only two reasons to hold him back.  The first is that he isn't ready and needs more AAA seasoning.  That is a decision for Huntington, Hurdle, and Searage.

The second is to save money and preserve another year of "control."  As I've said above, to me this is no good reason at all.

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Posted: 02/07/2013 12:21 PM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



gr1111 wrote:
williamjpellas wrote:
I'm not sure how arm abuse is relevant to this discussion, in that he is going to be pitching somewhere -- either in Pittsburgh or in AAA.  His innings can and should be managed/monitored in either location.

There are only two reasons to hold him back.  The first is that he isn't ready and needs more AAA seasoning.  That is a decision for Huntington, Hurdle, and Searage.

The second is to save money and preserve another year of "control."  As I've said above, to me this is no good reason at all.
He can be monitored and still injure his arm.  I believe he should start at AAA this year.  I only hope that we do get to see the genuine Cole someday in Pittsburgh - and not some fraction of the genuine thing - like we got with post surgery Brad Lincoln.  I guess my point was pitching is a little different than position players - as an arm is much more fragile.

Last edited 02/07/2013 12:43 PM by Sangue

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Posted: 02/07/2013 12:32 PM

Re: Would it be possible for a young guy to 



Sangue wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
williamjpellas wrote:
I'm not sure how arm abuse is relevant to this discussion, in that he is going to be pitching somewhere -- either in Pittsburgh or in AAA.  His innings can and should be managed/monitored in either location.

There are only two reasons to hold him back.  The first is that he isn't ready and needs more AAA seasoning.  That is a decision for Huntington, Hurdle, and Searage.

The second is to save money and preserve another year of "control."  As I've said above, to me this is no good reason at all.
He can be monitored and still injure his arm.  I believe he should start at AAA this year.  I only hope that we do get to see the genuine Cole someday in Pittsburgh - and not some fraction of the genuine thing - like we got with post surgery Brad Lincoln.  I guess my point was pitching is a little different than position players - as and arm is much more fragile.


He can injure his arm pitching in AAA as well.  The possibility of injury is present no matter where he pitches this year.

Brad Lincoln injured his arm pitching in college.

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