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The A.J. Burnett Plan

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Posted: 01/28/2013 8:29 AM

The A.J. Burnett Plan 


Is it a forgone conclusion that Burnett will be traded in July?

Its unlikely the Pirates will want to pay the salary he demands in 2014 (based on his first half performance of 2013 being similar to 2012).

The Pirates will be left with the choice to keep him and try to win this year or trade him for prospects.

If Burnett replicates his 2012 season and stays with the Pirates the whole year, would the Pirates get a compensation pick?
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Posted: 01/28/2013 8:39 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


Assuming the Pirates are actually in the playoff hunt, whether we think they have a real shot or not, Burnett won't be traded.  Now, if McDonald and Wandy are kicking but and Liriano and Karstens are pitching really well.  Then there's a chance they trade Burnett for something... but it won't be prospects.  My guess is that it would have to be a bat.  That being said, I think Burnett will be here through the season and will be on another team, possibly the Phillies, Mets, or Nationals in 2014.  If we get a pick, good... if not, oh well.

If I'm reading this right (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/b...on-system-works), the Pirates would have to offer Burnett a very big 1 year contract (approximately $13M), in order to a get a compensatory pick.  I don't see that happening at all.  They'll let him walk.  The same will go for Wandy after next season.

#fringeprospect

Last edited 01/28/2013 8:45 AM by TBayXXXVII

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Posted: 01/28/2013 9:00 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


Burnett has a limited no trade clause also that will come into play if they are thinking of moving him.


If they are in contention, they need to keep him. And if he pitches well, I don't see why they would not offer him a 1 year 13Million dollar deal unless they have other SPs more capable. That is alot of money, but it is only 1 year.

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Posted: 01/28/2013 9:06 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


I think if he performs well, it isn't even a forgone conclusion that he isn't a Pirate next season.  They may want to keep him around on a 1 or 2 year deal to be the veteran presence on the staff with Cole and Taillon.  They could trade Rodriquez and choose to keep Burnett around.  Obviously it all depends on individual and team performance this season.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 10:18 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


If I were a gambling man, short of a Cy Young (vote-worthy), caliber season, I'd be willing to bet a ton of money that Burnett would only get a "thank you" note as he left the team facility after the season is over.  If things go well (not even great... just "good enough"), next season's rotation will be McDonald, Liriano, Rodriguez, Cole, and McPherson... with McPherson likely to lose his job in July (or August), to Taillon.  Burnett is a nice pitcher, but he's not good enough to where we need to pay him all that money to keep a kid from playing.

If you go by Katoy's projections, he thinks Liriano will have an ERA of around 3.50.  If that happens, why pay Burnett almost double the money for similar production?  Also, that production is what we're basically thinking Wandy would give.  The Pirates are on the hook for only $8M next year for him.  There will be no real need to keep Burnett at $13M+.  Another thing you'd have to consider, why would Burnett take $13M (which would be a $3M pay cut), when a team like the Phillies or Nationals, or maybe even the Mets could possibly offer him $16M-$18M?

#fringeprospect
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Posted: 01/28/2013 10:55 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



TBayXXXVII wrote:

If I were a gambling man, short of a Cy Young (vote-worthy), caliber season, I'd be willing to bet a ton of money that Burnett would only get a "thank you" note as he left the team facility after the season is over.  If things go well (not even great... just "good enough"), next season's rotation will be McDonald, Liriano, Rodriguez, Cole, and McPherson... with McPherson likely to lose his job in July (or August), to Taillon.  Burnett is a nice pitcher, but he's not good enough to where we need to pay him all that money to keep a kid from playing.

If you go by Katoy's projections, he thinks Liriano will have an ERA of around 3.50.  If that happens, why pay Burnett almost double the money for similar production?  Also, that production is what we're basically thinking Wandy would give.  The Pirates are on the hook for only $8M next year for him.  There will be no real need to keep Burnett at $13M+.  Another thing you'd have to consider, why would Burnett take $13M (which would be a $3M pay cut), when a team like the Phillies or Nationals, or maybe even the Mets could possibly offer him $16M-$18M?


I said you would trade Rodriguez, so you wouldn't be blocking a young pitcher.  And if Burnett were to make 13 million, that would actually save the Pirates money if you add together what they are paying for Rodriguez and Burnett this season.  Burnett would take a pay cut because he and his wife like Pittsburgh and he will be 37 years old, not likely he is going to get 16 million again in free-agency. 

Now he might not be brought back, or he might be traded.  But, I don't think it is a forgone conclusion that he is the one to go next offseason.  I could very easily see them resigning him and traded Rodriguez so that he can mentor Cole and Taillon.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 11:24 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


This discussion has to take into consideration that AJ is now 36 years old. 

Would we spring $13M for a 37 year old power pitcher?  I don't know, but I have some doubts.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/28/2013 11:27 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



gr1111 wrote: This discussion has to take into consideration that AJ is now 36 years old. 

Would we spring $13M for a 37 year old power pitcher?  I don't know, but I have some doubts.

Yeah I agree, that is the question.  I obviously don't know what Burnett thinks of Pittsbrugh for sure, or what his performance will be like this season, but I am just simply implying that it shouldn't be assumed that he is gone after this season.  Rodiriguez is just as likely to go IMO since Burnett could have extra value as the veteran presence in a rotation with probably Cole, Taillon, McPherson/McDonald.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 11:32 AM

RE: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


I don't think the team would have a problem spending 13 million on AJ Burnett on a one year deal. They're paying him 8.5 million this year so we're talking about 4.5 million dollars more. They would be ok with the money short term. Where the Pirates would have a problem is if they went that amount for an old pitcher but on say a 3 year deal.

Burnett will have to perform for this to be an option though. If he pitches well he will get offered arbitration and no team will lose a draft pick on a pitcher that old. Draft picks mean a lot as look at the impact it had on Kyle Lohse who is younger than Burnett. I'm sure AJ would accept arbitration. The other option would be maybe a 2 year deal for 20-22 million. The Pirates lower the AAV of the contract at the expense of guaranteeing Burnett and additional year.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 12:22 PM

RE: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


I also think you could get AJ on a multi-year deal, but it remains to be seen if he'll pitch well enough to justify paying him. The qualifying offer will be higher next season as the average salary of the top 125 players will be higher than it was in 2012, probably around 14.5 million at the lowest. It comes down to what the young pitchers accomplish in the upcoming year, if they show they can handle the ML hitters, I think you let AJ go unless he signs a friendly contract.
Blame it on "a certain someone"
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Posted: 01/28/2013 1:00 PM

RE: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


I doubt it goes up that much. Salaries are not going up as much as you think and a lot of the increases are being countered by the fact that the middle is shrinking.

Sure you had a couple of extra 25 million dollar players in Greinke and Hamilton but who took the place of these lost salaries?

Carlos Lee - 18.5 million
Torrii Hunter - 18 million
Carlos Zambrano - 18 million
Ichiro - 17 million
Jake Peavy - 17 million
Jason Bay - 16 million
Derrek Lowe - 15 million

Remember it also goes off of the yearly salary not AAV. These contracts are back loaded usually. Zack Greinke only makes 19 million in 2013. Torri Hunter makes 12 million in 2013. (31 million total between the two players) In 2012 Hunter made 18 million and Greinke made 13.5 million (31.5 million between the two players)

The 125th player last year payroll wise was Carlos Pena at 7.25 million.

In 2013 the 125th player is making 7.75 million in Yovanni Gallardo.

It might change a little bit but the lowest will be around 8 million. It might switch things a couple of 100K higher but a million dollar jump isn't likely for next year.

In 2012 there were 11 players that made 21 million or more. In 2013 there are 11 players that make 21 million or more so the numbers really haven't changed a whole lot.

Top 11 in salary for 2012

1. Alex Rodriguez - 29 million
2. Johan Santana - 24 million
3. Prince Fielder - 23 million
4. CC Sabathia - 23 million
5. Joe Mauer - 23 million
6. Mark Teixiera - 22.5 million
7. Cliff Lee - 21.5 million
8. Adrian Gonzalez - 21 million
9. Miguel Cabrera - 21 million
10. Vernon Wells - 21 million
11. Roy Halladay - 20 million



Top 11 in salary for 2013

1. Alex Rodriguez - 28 million
2. Johan Santana - 25.5 million
3. Cliff Lee - 25 million
4. Joe Mauer - 23 million
5. CC Sabathia - 23 million
6. Prince Fielder - 23 million
7. Mark Teixeira - 22.5 million
8. Tim Lincecum - 22 million
9. Vernon Wells - 21 million
10. Miguel Cabrera - 21 million
11. Adrian Gonzalez - 21 million

It's an average so for a minimum of a 1 million dollar bump would of required a lot more salary. As I said it might be 13.5 million instead of 13.3 million but a jump up to 14.5 million won't happen. I think you're forgetting that the reason teams can spend big on players is because money also comes off of teams budgets. The Angels speny big on Hamilton but that is because they had money from Hunter, Santana and Haren off the books.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 1:06 PM

RE: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



katoy2j wrote: I don't think the team would have a problem spending 13 million on AJ Burnett on a one year deal. They're paying him 8.5 million this year so we're talking about 4.5 million dollars more. They would be ok with the money short term. Where the Pirates would have a problem is if they went that amount for an old pitcher but on say a 3 year deal.

Burnett will have to perform for this to be an option though. If he pitches well he will get offered arbitration and no team will lose a draft pick on a pitcher that old. Draft picks mean a lot as look at the impact it had on Kyle Lohse who is younger than Burnett. I'm sure AJ would accept arbitration. The other option would be maybe a 2 year deal for 20-22 million. The Pirates lower the AAV of the contract at the expense of guaranteeing Burnett and additional year.


This sounds pretty accurate, I think. 


Burnett did have Tommy John surgery once upon a time, but that was many years ago, and he's been a workhorse---albeit an often inconsistent workhorse---ever since.  Another plus is that he is in very good shape by all accounts.  I have read in various places that he is also very happy to be playing in Pittsburgh because it is close to the farm that he and his wife own in Maryland and that that counts for a great deal with him.  On the other hand, he is the quintessential fastball-curveball power pitcher and when---not if, but when---he finally loses another foot or two off his fastball, he might be more likely to "go over a cliff" or "get old overnight" because it's doubtful he has enough of a junkball repertoire to successfully transition to being a control pitcher.  So, I'd be more inclined to go year to year with him than sign him longer term---though if it was a career-ending contract, maybe you go two years with the idea that he's done after 2015 and if ends up a swingman or a reliever for the last year, that's okay because he's the mentor for Cole and Taillon, that sort of thing. 


Still, if he stays in great shape and doesn't get hurt, who knows?  Maybe he lasts into his early 40s.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 1:11 PM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/28/2013 3:13 PM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.
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Posted: 01/28/2013 3:42 PM

RE: The A.J. Burnett Plan 


I disagree with you on Roethlisberger. He isn't overpaid by any means. QB's make a lot of money and the team was pretty useless without Roethlisberger last year. He's still a top 10 quarterback and you can't just replace that. You can't win without a good quarterback most of the time. Arizona was a bad team and went to the Super Bowl because they had Hurt Warner. Ever since he left it's been a disaster. Look at the difference a good quarterback did for Washington, Indy and Seattle. Use Indy as an example. They were great with Manning then he got hurt and they were the worst team in the league. They lucked out and got a quarterback and were in the playoffs again. They had a top draft pick though. If you take Roethlisberger off the Steelers then we become as irrelevant as the Browns.
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Posted: 01/29/2013 4:40 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.

your entire statement is about as assinine and ignorant as one could be, but im only gonna focus on 1 part of it.

well Ill put it this way a competent replacement could be Alex Smith who isnt even close to being as good, however he could win games. He is due to make 8.5 Mil next year.

Ben will restructure again, there is no doubt however 11 Mil for him is a good price to pay.

here is who is scheduled to make more than him next year (base salaries)

Peyton -Worth it
Michael Vick - ummmm no
Carson Palmer- ummmm hell no
Eli Manning- bout the same level
Phillip Rivers- hahahahaha
Stafford-injured more and has the yards but no where near as good.
Romo and Ben have equal contract/ Still would take Ben. Brady makes a little less, however his bonus is much larger so his cap hit will be larger (this list is base salaries)

Ben has 2 SB wins, played in 3. i dont care if he did bad in one of them, he was the reason they got to that game. He was having his best year before the injury. most yards, TD's and fewest INT's. he didnt come back right though and was also let down by his receivers.

Whether you like him as a person or not, doesnt take away from his ability and the fact he is a top 5 QB. I personally am not a fan of him and his off field issues (prior) but he is still a top QB.

Without him, the steelers win 5-6 games a year max.


 

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Posted: 01/29/2013 6:18 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.


As unnecessarily argumentative as ever, I see.  I neither said, nor implied, that either Burnett or Roethlisberger is overpaid. 

It was merely a bit of trivia that no Pittsburgh athlete has ever been paid anything close to $13M for one year of work, even though many athletes in other cities routinely make more than that.  I guess that is technically wrong, since AJ received $16M last year (just not all from the Pirates).

Am I now "on record" for saying that?  biggrin

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/29/2013 6:58 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



gr1111 wrote:
cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.


As unnecessarily argumentative as ever, I see.  I neither said, nor implied, that either Burnett or Roethlisberger is overpaid. 

It was merely a bit of trivia that no Pittsburgh athlete has ever been paid anything close to $13M for one year of work, even though many athletes in other cities routinely make more than that.  I guess that is technically wrong, since AJ received $16M last year (just not all from the Pirates).

Am I now "on record" for saying that?  biggrin

I wasn't argumentative at all?  Just contributing to the discussion I thought we were having.
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Posted: 01/29/2013 7:06 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote:
cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.


As unnecessarily argumentative as ever, I see.  I neither said, nor implied, that either Burnett or Roethlisberger is overpaid. 

It was merely a bit of trivia that no Pittsburgh athlete has ever been paid anything close to $13M for one year of work, even though many athletes in other cities routinely make more than that.  I guess that is technically wrong, since AJ received $16M last year (just not all from the Pirates).

Am I now "on record" for saying that?  biggrin

I wasn't argumentative at all?  Just contributing to the discussion I thought we were having.

OK

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/29/2013 7:06 AM

Re: The A.J. Burnett Plan 



BLKandGOLDpride wrote:
cferrel3 wrote:
gr1111 wrote: Without steroids, I don't think many pitchers are going to last into their 40s anymore.  Always possible, but not likely.

If the Pirates pay AJ $13 million in 2014, he'll be the highest paid athlete in the history of Pittsburgh, in any sport.  At $11M, Ben Roethlisberger currently holds that mark.  Andrew McCutcheon isn't scheduled to make more than $10M until 2016.

Is completely irrelevant since there isn't a salary cap in baseball, that is how baseball works.  The best players don't always make the most money on the team, in many cases, the oldest players make the most.  The Pirates could afford a 1 year 13 million deal to Burnett without batting an eye-lash, and they won't feel like they are "overpaying" him. 

Now if the Steelers or Pens gave an out of his prime, but solid, player 13 million dollars on a one year contract it would cripple the team because of the salary cap.  In fact, I am on record as saying that Big Ben deserves no where near that $11 million he is owed next year and is the most overpaid player in the NFL.  I would prefer the Steelers restructure or just flat out release him and spend the money elsewhere if they can find a competent replacement.

your entire statement is about as assinine and ignorant as one could be, but im only gonna focus on 1 part of it.

well Ill put it this way a competent replacement could be Alex Smith who isnt even close to being as good, however he could win games. He is due to make 8.5 Mil next year.

Ben will restructure again, there is no doubt however 11 Mil for him is a good price to pay.

here is who is scheduled to make more than him next year (base salaries)

Peyton -Worth it
Michael Vick - ummmm no
Carson Palmer- ummmm hell no
Eli Manning- bout the same level
Phillip Rivers- hahahahaha
Stafford-injured more and has the yards but no where near as good.
Romo and Ben have equal contract/ Still would take Ben. Brady makes a little less, however his bonus is much larger so his cap hit will be larger (this list is base salaries)

Ben has 2 SB wins, played in 3. i dont care if he did bad in one of them, he was the reason they got to that game. He was having his best year before the injury. most yards, TD's and fewest INT's. he didnt come back right though and was also let down by his receivers.

Whether you like him as a person or not, doesnt take away from his ability and the fact he is a top 5 QB. I personally am not a fan of him and his off field issues (prior) but he is still a top QB.

Without him, the steelers win 5-6 games a year max.

That is far from a "fact"  I honestly don't think he is top 10.  The Steelers would have finished 8-8 with Alex Smith and I honestly believe that.  The Steelers win by defense, the offense, even with "top 5" Big Ben has been middle of the pack for a decade.  With the skill position players at Ben's disposal, the talent on the O-Line, and the caliber of offensive minds calling the plays (Arians and Haley are two of the best in the game) that is kind of embarrassing. 

That is my point, at some point the finger gets pointed back at Ben for the offense being mediocre.  Like I pointed out Arians moved on to Indy had 5 rookies starting on offense (including a rookie QB) and had the #2 total offense in football.  I didn't have this viewpoint until I witnessed that this season.  I can't ignore the actual facts.

And many of those QB's are overpaid, doesn't mean Big Ben isn't.  And your comment about Stafford being "nowhere as good" as Ben when healthy is offensive.  When healthy Stafford is an elite passer, something Big Ben has never been.  Now because of injuries Big Ben still has the edge, but both healthy I take Stafford every time.  Some wear rose colored glasses when it comes to Big Ben and that is confusing to me.  He is a good quarterback, but far from elite.  The Steelers have a better winning percentage over the length of Ben's career when Charlie Batch starts, that should say something.
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